Adaptive Trajectory Prediction in Roundabouts Using Moving Horizon Estimation

Selsabil Bougherara, Hasni Arezki, Chouki Sentouh, Chouki Sentouh, Jérôme Floris, Jean-Christophe Popieul, Jean-Christophe Popieul

2025

Abstract

This paper addresses the challenge of trajectory prediction for automated vehicles navigating within roundabouts, where interactions, non-linear motion, and rapid decision-making complicate traditional approaches. We propose a novel prediction framework based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) combined with a nonlinear kinematic bicycle model. Unlike conventional methods such as the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), the proposed MHE-based framework leverages past observations over a sliding time window, enhancing robustness against model uncertainties and noise. The method is validated through simulations using the SHERPA driving simulator in both static and dynamic maneuvering. The results demonstrate that MHE significantly outperforms the EKF in terms of prediction accuracy, particularly during complex vehicle behaviors. This work constitutes a foundational step toward enhancing safety and robustness of decision-making in roundabouts.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Bougherara S., Arezki H., Sentouh C., Floris J. and Popieul J. (2025). Adaptive Trajectory Prediction in Roundabouts Using Moving Horizon Estimation. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics - Volume 1: ICINCO; ISBN 978-989-758-770-2, SciTePress, pages 380-386. DOI: 10.5220/0013835800003982

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icinco25,
author={Selsabil Bougherara and Hasni Arezki and Chouki Sentouh and Jérôme Floris and Jean-Christophe Popieul},
title={Adaptive Trajectory Prediction in Roundabouts Using Moving Horizon Estimation},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics - Volume 1: ICINCO},
year={2025},
pages={380-386},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013835800003982},
isbn={978-989-758-770-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics - Volume 1: ICINCO
TI - Adaptive Trajectory Prediction in Roundabouts Using Moving Horizon Estimation
SN - 978-989-758-770-2
AU - Bougherara S.
AU - Arezki H.
AU - Sentouh C.
AU - Floris J.
AU - Popieul J.
PY - 2025
SP - 380
EP - 386
DO - 10.5220/0013835800003982
PB - SciTePress