A Machine Learning Model for Estimating Daily Rainfall in Mediterranean Climate

Ali Karah Bash, Amin Gharehbaghi, Shahaboddin Daneshvar

2025

Abstract

Rainfall estimation remains a critical yet complex task, especially in Mediterranean regions where climatic variability poses significant modeling challenges. This study utilizes two regression approaches—Coarse Gaussian Support Vector Machine (CGSVM) and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN)—to predict daily rainfall over Bozcaada station, Türkiye. The models were trained and evaluated using standard regression performance metrics to investigate their predictive ability under Mediterranean climate conditions. Both models showed promising results in capturing the overall structure of rainfall variation. The RBFNN displays slightly greater stability across low-to-moderate precipitation ranges. However, neither model fully captured the intensity of extreme rainfall events, reflecting a common limitation in data-driven rainfall modeling. Quantitative assessments using RMSE, MAE, NSE, SI, and R² further highlighted the close performance of both methods, with RBFNN offering marginally improved accuracy. The findings suggest that CGSVM and RBFNN can provide useful estimations in operational contexts, though additional enhancements are needed. This work contributes to the growing literature on machine learning applications in hydrometeorological forecasting and highlights the need for adaptable models suited to the specific complexities of Mediterranean climates.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Karah Bash A., Gharehbaghi A. and Daneshvar S. (2025). A Machine Learning Model for Estimating Daily Rainfall in Mediterranean Climate. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advances in Electrical, Electronics, Energy, and Computer Sciences - Volume 1: ICEEECS; ISBN 978-989-758-783-2, SciTePress, pages 295-299. DOI: 10.5220/0014375200004848

in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceeecs25,
author={Ali Karah Bash and Amin Gharehbaghi and Shahaboddin Daneshvar},
title={A Machine Learning Model for Estimating Daily Rainfall in Mediterranean Climate},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advances in Electrical, Electronics, Energy, and Computer Sciences - Volume 1: ICEEECS},
year={2025},
pages={295-299},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0014375200004848},
isbn={978-989-758-783-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advances in Electrical, Electronics, Energy, and Computer Sciences - Volume 1: ICEEECS
TI - A Machine Learning Model for Estimating Daily Rainfall in Mediterranean Climate
SN - 978-989-758-783-2
AU - Karah Bash A.
AU - Gharehbaghi A.
AU - Daneshvar S.
PY - 2025
SP - 295
EP - 299
DO - 10.5220/0014375200004848
PB - SciTePress