Prediction of Diabetes Incidence Based on the Grey Prediction Model

Fangming Xu

2025

Abstract

In recent years, the incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) has been increasing and becoming one of the main causes of death worldwide. To effectively predict the incidence of DM, this study adopts a grey prediction model, combined with the incidence data of type 2 DM in the Liangxi District of Wuxi City from 2012 to 2019, to predict and analyze the incidence rate from 2020 to 2026. Through data preprocessing, chi-square test, and correlation analysis, factors such as age, Body Mass Index, exercise status, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were selected as the main influencing factors. The posterior difference ratio of the gray prediction model is C=0.238, with a small error probability P=1.000, and the prediction accuracy is good. The model can better capture the changing trend of diabetes incidence, but there are certain deficiencies in prediction accuracy in years with high incidence. In order to improve the accuracy of the model, optimization measures such as introducing external variables, multi-model fusion, and cross-validation were proposed to further improve the prediction effect. The results showed that the incidence of diabetes was closely related to many factors. It was suggested to strengthen personal health management and monitoring to reduce the incidence of diabetes and its complications.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Xu F. (2025). Prediction of Diabetes Incidence Based on the Grey Prediction Model. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics, and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA; ISBN 978-989-758-774-0, SciTePress, pages 53-58. DOI: 10.5220/0013813900004708

in Bibtex Style

@conference{iampa25,
author={Fangming Xu},
title={Prediction of Diabetes Incidence Based on the Grey Prediction Model},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics, and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA},
year={2025},
pages={53-58},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013813900004708},
isbn={978-989-758-774-0},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics, and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA
TI - Prediction of Diabetes Incidence Based on the Grey Prediction Model
SN - 978-989-758-774-0
AU - Xu F.
PY - 2025
SP - 53
EP - 58
DO - 10.5220/0013813900004708
PB - SciTePress