Prediction of Urban Population Growth in Zhengzhou City Based on Time Series Analysis

Yushi Gan

2025

Abstract

Population dynamics represent one of the most critical issues in human society. Population growth significantly influences economic and social development, impacting employment, innovation, and urban competitiveness. Consequently, analyzing population trends and forecasting future changes can provide valuable insights into developmental needs and offer a scientific foundation for economic planning, social progress, and urban design. This study conducts an in-depth analysis of Zhengzhou City's population data from 1982 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model based on annual statistics released by the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics. It further predicts the population growth trajectory for the next decade. The Ljung-Box test results indicate that the residuals of the ARIMA (1,2,1) model exhibit no significant autocorrelation and approximate white noise, demonstrating the model's robust predictive capability. Projections suggest that Zhengzhou's population will maintain steady growth in the coming years, with the permanent resident population surpassing 15 million by 2032. However, the long-term population growth in Zhengzhou faces numerous challenges and uncertainties due to factors such as limited resource capacity, economic fluctuations, industrial restructuring, regional competition, and policy adjustments.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Gan Y. (2025). Prediction of Urban Population Growth in Zhengzhou City Based on Time Series Analysis. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics, and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA; ISBN 978-989-758-774-0, SciTePress, pages 47-52. DOI: 10.5220/0013813800004708

in Bibtex Style

@conference{iampa25,
author={Yushi Gan},
title={Prediction of Urban Population Growth in Zhengzhou City Based on Time Series Analysis},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics, and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA},
year={2025},
pages={47-52},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013813800004708},
isbn={978-989-758-774-0},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics, and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA
TI - Prediction of Urban Population Growth in Zhengzhou City Based on Time Series Analysis
SN - 978-989-758-774-0
AU - Gan Y.
PY - 2025
SP - 47
EP - 52
DO - 10.5220/0013813800004708
PB - SciTePress