A Comparative Study and Forecast of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in EU Countries over the Next Decade Using SARIMAX and GRU Models

Jingqi Zhang

2025

Abstract

Recently, the world has faced major challenges in addressing climate change. One of the primary contributors to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), and as one of the major CO2 emission regions in the world, the effectiveness of the emission reduction measures taken by the European Union has attracted much attention. Therefore, based on the global CO2 emission data set from 1980 to 2022, this study uses a linear regression model to test whether the gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, and population of each country are driving factors of CO2 emissions, and uses them as exogenous variables of the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model and Characteristic variables of the Gated recurrent units (GRU) model to participate in the prediction. Secondly, the SARIMAX model and the GRU model are trained using a rolling test set, and the trend of EU countries' carbon dioxide emissions in the next 10 years is predicted. According to the study, the GRU model has higher average MAE and MSE values than the SARIMAX model. CO2 emissions in most EU countries will continue to decline in the future. Therefore, in small sample situations, the SARIMAX prediction model is better than the GRU model. The emission reduction measures taken by EU countries are effective.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Zhang J. (2025). A Comparative Study and Forecast of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in EU Countries over the Next Decade Using SARIMAX and GRU Models. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE; ISBN 978-989-758-765-8, SciTePress, pages 332-339. DOI: 10.5220/0013689600004670

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icdse25,
author={Jingqi Zhang},
title={A Comparative Study and Forecast of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in EU Countries over the Next Decade Using SARIMAX and GRU Models},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE},
year={2025},
pages={332-339},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013689600004670},
isbn={978-989-758-765-8},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE
TI - A Comparative Study and Forecast of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in EU Countries over the Next Decade Using SARIMAX and GRU Models
SN - 978-989-758-765-8
AU - Zhang J.
PY - 2025
SP - 332
EP - 339
DO - 10.5220/0013689600004670
PB - SciTePress