Unveiling the Mystery of Olympic Medals Prediction: HEAH Model with XGBoost for Predicting Olympic Medal Counts

Zicong Jin

2025

Abstract

Every four years, the Olympic medal table experiences remarkable transformations, with new competitors emerging and standings constantly shifting. Accurately predicting these medal counts is a complex task, as it demands the consideration of numerous factors. The paper distills the main influential elements into four key aspects: historical performance, sports engagement, athlete - related factors, and the host effect. Based on these, the paper constructs the History - Engagement - Athlete - Host (HEAH) Model Framework. To enhance prediction accuracy, the paper integrates the XGBoost machine-learning algorithm. The hyperparameters of XGBoost are meticulously optimized using the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) method. Experimental results demonstrate that our HEAH - XGBoost model exhibits outstanding performance on both training and testing datasets. It effectively captures complex relationships in the data, offering reliable predictions for Olympic medal counts, which can assist in strategic planning for sports authorities and in understanding the dynamics of Olympic competitions.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Jin Z. (2025). Unveiling the Mystery of Olympic Medals Prediction: HEAH Model with XGBoost for Predicting Olympic Medal Counts. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE; ISBN 978-989-758-765-8, SciTePress, pages 89-97. DOI: 10.5220/0013679200004670

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icdse25,
author={Zicong Jin},
title={Unveiling the Mystery of Olympic Medals Prediction: HEAH Model with XGBoost for Predicting Olympic Medal Counts},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE},
year={2025},
pages={89-97},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013679200004670},
isbn={978-989-758-765-8},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE
TI - Unveiling the Mystery of Olympic Medals Prediction: HEAH Model with XGBoost for Predicting Olympic Medal Counts
SN - 978-989-758-765-8
AU - Jin Z.
PY - 2025
SP - 89
EP - 97
DO - 10.5220/0013679200004670
PB - SciTePress