Leveraging Spatial Analysis for Sustainable Land Use Change Management: A Case of the Mountain Elgon Region

Isdore Guma, Agnes Semwanga Rwashana, Benedict Oyo, Daniel Waiswa

2025

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities such as agriculture, deforestation and expansion of infrastructure have significantly changed land use land cover. These changes have raised environmental concerns, including soil erosion, landslides, water-catchment degradation and loss of biodiversity, with adverse consequences for food production and thus livelihoods. This study sought to explore how the associations between slope, elevation, distance to roads and rivers, population growth and hillshade influence spatial and temporal variations in land use change. The methodology involved integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems and spatial modelling. The study found that deforestation is a persistent phenomenon, with forest cover falling from 32.34% (2014) to 14.40% (2054). Similarly, the rangeland coverage is projected to decrease significantly from 17.74% in 2014 to 8.91% in 2054.Urbanization, on the other hand is rapidly increasing, tripling from 18.27% in 2014 to 48.55% in 2054. It has been shown that population growth, distance from roads, elevation and slope are strongly correlated, with the latter being very strong. Among the identified potential synergies, built up areas are expected to almost reach 50% by 2054 at the expense of deforestation, land degradation and water loss. Based on the identified synergies, it is recommended that a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability be sought to promote land use change management.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Guma I., Rwashana A., Oyo B. and Waiswa D. (2025). Leveraging Spatial Analysis for Sustainable Land Use Change Management: A Case of the Mountain Elgon Region. In Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH; ISBN 978-989-758-759-7, SciTePress, pages 382-389. DOI: 10.5220/0013644800003970

in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech25,
author={Isdore Guma and Agnes Rwashana and Benedict Oyo and Daniel Waiswa},
title={Leveraging Spatial Analysis for Sustainable Land Use Change Management: A Case of the Mountain Elgon Region},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH},
year={2025},
pages={382-389},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013644800003970},
isbn={978-989-758-759-7},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH
TI - Leveraging Spatial Analysis for Sustainable Land Use Change Management: A Case of the Mountain Elgon Region
SN - 978-989-758-759-7
AU - Guma I.
AU - Rwashana A.
AU - Oyo B.
AU - Waiswa D.
PY - 2025
SP - 382
EP - 389
DO - 10.5220/0013644800003970
PB - SciTePress