A Comparison Between Arima and Ann Models for Guntur Red Chillies Price Forecasting

P Soumya, M Srikala

2024

Abstract

Red chillies is one of the most important spices produced in Andhra Pradesh. Guntur APMC is the major market that trades red chillies in Andhra Pradesh. The current study is an attempt to forecast red chilli prices in Guntur market. In this study secondary data were used for the purpose of analysis. The price data of red chillies for a period of 10 years were obtained from APMC, Guntur. Training data from July 2013 to December 2022 and testing data from January 2023 to June 2023 was considered for the purpose of study. The red chilli prices of Guntur were forecasted by employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. The data analysis software R is used for modelling and forecasting Guntur red chilli prices. The results revealed the superiority of ANN models over ARIMA due to presence of non-linearity in the data. Government should take steps to provide accurate forecasted chilli price data to farmers which result in better price realization by farmers. Government should also frame trade policies in such a way that the country can be benefited through trade by comparing prices of commodity in our country with other countries.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Soumya P. and Srikala M. (2024). A Comparison Between Arima and Ann Models for Guntur Red Chillies Price Forecasting. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Emerging Innovations for Sustainable Agriculture - Volume 1: ICEISA; ISBN 978-989-758-714-6, SciTePress, pages 137-142. DOI: 10.5220/0012883900004519

in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceisa24,
author={P Soumya and M Srikala},
title={A Comparison Between Arima and Ann Models for Guntur Red Chillies Price Forecasting},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Emerging Innovations for Sustainable Agriculture - Volume 1: ICEISA},
year={2024},
pages={137-142},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0012883900004519},
isbn={978-989-758-714-6},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Emerging Innovations for Sustainable Agriculture - Volume 1: ICEISA
TI - A Comparison Between Arima and Ann Models for Guntur Red Chillies Price Forecasting
SN - 978-989-758-714-6
AU - Soumya P.
AU - Srikala M.
PY - 2024
SP - 137
EP - 142
DO - 10.5220/0012883900004519
PB - SciTePress