share, causing revenue to fall. Road and air transport
also threatened Conrail. By 1995, trucks carried 59%
of Northeast freight. Conrail, with old facilities and
inefficient operations, couldn't compete well with
these alternatives. Market competition is a key factor
affecting railway company finances, as shown in
industry studies.
Finally, external factors hurt Conrail. It got little
policy support or subsidies. Regulations like price
controls and strict safety rules restricted its operations
and raised costs. For example, price controls stopped
it adjusting freight rates with market demand and cost
changes, hurting revenue. Conrail lagged behind in
railway technology. Not investing in new tech and
equipment caused inefficient operations.
Competitors, however, invested in innovations like
battery-powered locomotives and smart logistics
systems. Railway market demand changed too.
Demand fell in traditional industries like coal and
steel but rose for high-value, time-sensitive goods.
Conrail, focused only on traditional customers,
couldn't adapt. This cut its business volume and
revenue. External factors like inflation and less
government aid can deeply impact railway company
finances, as seen in studies on sustainable railway
management (Moradi et al., 2023).
In conclusion, Conrail's financial distress was the
result of a combination of internal management
problems and external environmental factors. To
improve its financial situation, it needs to take
comprehensive measures such as optimizing its debt
structure, improving operational efficiency, and
adapting to market changes.
3.2 Investment Decision Failures
Conrail’s flawed investment strategy happened
because of weaknesses in how it made decisions.
These included focusing too much on short-term cost-
cutting, not evaluating risks well enough, and not
keeping up with technology. “A critical failure was
its refusal to adopt intermodal systems”—a sector
were competitors like CSX and Norfolk Southern
combined rail and truck logistics. Railroads with
intermodal systems saw 15 – 20% higher revenue
growth in the 1990s (Frank & Goyal, 2009). But
Conrail spent only 3% of its 1995 capital budget on
these projects. Instead, it closed low-traffic routes to
save $370 million yearly by 2000. This sacrificed
long-term growth options. This was very different
from CSX’s strategy: by 1995, CSX got 28% of its
revenue from non-rail operations like warehousing.
Conrail remained 98% reliant on rail freight, which is
unstable. The results were clear: from 1992–1995,
Conrail lost 12% of its most profitable freight to
trucking companies because of its rigid pricing.
During the same time, CSX’s intermodal business
grew 4% yearly (Frank & Goyal, 2009).
The 1996 CSX merger showed more flawed
decisions and poor planning for regulations. Expected
savings of $550 million by 2000 looked good. But
Conrail ignored similar problems, like Union Pacific
’s 1997 merger troubles where efficiency dropped
30%. The merger deal gave cash ($92.50) for 40% of
shares plus stock swaps. This deal was unfair, giving
company insiders a 13% higher price than regular
investors (Frank & Goyal, 2009). Regulatory
mistakes also hurt: the Surface Transportation Board
(STB) forced Conrail to share tracks with Norfolk
Southern. This cut the expected benefits by 25%. The
market doubted the deal right away, shown by CSX
’s stock falling 5.6% after the announcement (Frank
& Goyal, 2009).
Operational underinvestment made inefficiencies
worse. Conrail’s on-time delivery rate was 72% in
1995, much lower than Norfolk Southern’s 85%
(Frank & Goyal, 2009). Its operating expenses per
mile ($344,454) were 24% above the industry
average (Frank & Goyal, 2009). A clear example was
its slow adoption of Positive Train Control (PTC)
safety systems. Even with safety awards, Conrail’s
accident rate (3.2 per million train-miles in 1995) was
higher than competitors. This cost $45 million yearly
in avoidable damages (Frank & Goyal, 2009). This
showed problems like those found after the 1998
Norfolk Southern-Conrail accident. CSX, however,
cut accident costs by 18% from 1993 – 1996 by
installing PTC early (Frank & Goyal, 2009).
Because of neglecting technology, Conrail ’ s
market position fell apart. Its share of the Eastern U.S.
market dropped from 32% in 1990 to 29.4% in 1995
as customers used more trucks (Frank & Goyal,
2009). Conrail spent 67% of its 1995 budget on
maintaining old tracks, but only 9% on automation
(Frank & Goyal, 2009). This meant it couldn't
compete with trucking's flexible pricing.
These failures culminated in irreversible decline.
The 1996 merger ’ s inequitable structure and
regulatory penalties eroded investor confidence,
while safety underinvestment mirrored the human
factors criticized in the 1998 Norfolk Southern-
Conrail accident report. As Bebchuk & Tallarita
(2020) note, such governance failures in mergers
often destroy long-term value by prioritizing short-
term gains over systemic resilience. Conrail ’ s
trajectory underscores how poor risk calibration and