Evaluation Approaches for an Aggregated Meteorological Model

for Artillery Operations

Jan Ivan

, Viktor Vitoul

, Ladislav Potužák

, Jan Drábek

and Tomáš Havlík

Fire Support Department, University of Defence, Kounicova 65, Brno, Czech Republic

Keywords: Artillery, Fire Control, Knowledge Based System, Meteorology, Military, Synopsys, Tactile Sensor.

Abstract: This article presents a research initiative focused on developing innovative methods of meteorological

preparation for artillery units. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has underscored the pivotal role of artillery for

both sides, with its effectiveness hinging on fire accuracy—requiring compensation for multiple variables

affecting projectile trajectory. Among these variables, meteorological conditions are paramount and have

traditionally been assessed via upper-atmosphere sounding. However, current methods are susceptible to

enemy interference, necessitating the autonomous acquisition of meteorological data by artillery units, even

under degraded operational conditions. This research project proposes the development of an integrated

predictive model that leverages historical meteorological data. Using this model, artillery units would be able

to independently generate meteorological insights, eliminating the need for complex atmospheric sounding

systems or reliance on external data sources. The article also outlines a proposed method for evaluating the

model’s effectiveness, based on the General Preparation procedure used in artillery fire control.

1 INTRODUCTION

Although some military theorists forecasted a gradual

decline in the tactical relevance of artillery,

contemporary conflict dynamics suggest otherwise.

The ongoing war in Ukraine clearly illustrates that

artillery remains a critical element of force projection,

ensuring sustained and effective fire support for

maneuver units. This reality invites a nuanced

assessment of artillery’s operational effectiveness,

which is increasingly tied to the integration of

supporting technologies and data streams that govern

precision targeting and fire planning.

In contrast to other combat support branches such

as air defence, engineering, or logistics artillery

represents one of the oldest and most continuously

evolving military capabilities. Its doctrinal functions

and technical applications have undergone multiple

transformations in response to changes in warfare,

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battlefield requirements, and advancements in

weapon systems.

Fundamentally, artillery is designed to deliver fire

support defined as the provision of fire effects that

exceed the direct engagement capabilities of

supported units, particularly at extended ranges.

Within this framework, precision and reach emerge as

the essential factors underpinning artillery utility.

Consequently, most historical improvements in

artillery technology have centered around enhancing

these two attributes (Rolenec et al., 2021).

The present article builds upon prior research

presented at ICINCO 2023 (Ivan et al., 2023),

offering a significantly enriched contribution. This

paper proposes a new approach based on the

statistical processing of 20 years of historical

atmospheric sounding data from selected

meteorological stations, aimed at generating

predictive meteorological messages. The proposed

method is directly linked to artillery fire control and

includes a model evaluation using General

208

Ivan, J., Vitoul, V., Potužák, L. and Drábek, J.

Evaluation Approaches for an Aggregated Meteorological Model for Artillery Operations.

DOI: 10.5220/0013705000003982

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics (ICINCO 2025) - Volume 1, pages 208-218

ISBN: 978-989-758-770-2; ISSN: 2184-2809

Preparation methodology. It deepens the theoretical

foundation, introduces a rigorous evaluation

methodology grounded in the General Preparation

procedure, and elaborates on spatial and temporal

model structuring relevant to complex operational

environments where data acquisition is compromised.

To fully understand how contemporary artillery

leverages meteorological information to improve fire

accuracy, it is necessary to examine the principles of

artillery fire control and the systematic integration of

atmospheric data within this process.

2 ARTILLERY FIRE CONTROL

Artillery represents a technically advanced and multi-

domain branch of the armed forces, characterized by

its demand for a wide spectrum of input data to

operate effectively. The artillery system can generally

be divided into four fundamental components:

weapon–ammunition subsystems, sensor units, fire

direction capabilities, and auxiliary or support

technologies.

At the forefront of the system are the effectors,

which are the terminal platforms responsible for

delivering kinetic effects. These include tube artillery

(howitzers and cannons), mortars, and multiple

launch rocket systems (MLRS). For these weapon

systems to function with the required precision, they

must be supplied with reliable firing data. This data

set comprises spatial orientation and position of the

firing unit, ballistic characteristics of the selected

ammunition, and environmental factors - primarily

meteorological conditions - that influence projectile

behavior during flight.

The computation and provision of this firing data

falls under the responsibility of fire direction centers.

These command nodes integrate data streams from

supporting assets and sensor systems to calculate

firing solutions. Sensors, which are critical for

observing impacts and facilitating corrections, may

include electro-optical devices, laser rangefinders,

radar systems, or UAV-mounted platforms. Their

purpose is to relay observed point-of-impact

information back to fire control units, enabling real-

time corrections.

Fire control itself forms the operational core of

artillery employment. It encompasses a coordinated

sequence of tasks: planning, fire mission allocation,

preparation, and direction of fires in alignment with

mission intent. The primary objective is to maximize

destructive or suppressive effects on designated

targets.

Artillery fire control is structured into two distinct

but interdependent domains:

Tactical fire control operates at the mission

planning level. It involves choosing the optimal firing

unit based on current battlefield conditions, logistical

status, ammunition availability, and the overall

tactical picture (Świętochowski, 2019). This layer

aligns artillery effects with maneuver elements and

broader operational goals.

Technical fire control deals with precise

adjustment of firing parameters. These include

calculations for azimuth, elevation, and propellant

settings based on weapon configuration, ballistic

tables, and environmental corrections (Blaha et al.,

2016). The process may be executed manually by

trained personnel or through automated means using

digital fire direction systems and ballistic software.

Depending on the level of technological integration,

technical fire control is categorized as either manual

(human-calculated) or automated (computer-

assisted).

3 METEOROLOGICAL

TECHNIQUES

Meteorological support constitutes an essential pillar

of effective artillery fire control and target

engagement procedures. The ballistic path of an

artillery projectile is inherently sensitive to a variety

of atmospheric parameters, which must be accurately

accounted for when generating firing solutions.

Without proper environmental compensation, the

likelihood of first-round target effects is significantly

reduced.

Although specific methodologies for integrating

meteorological data into fire control vary from

country to country, there is a common operational

consensus regarding the core atmospheric variables

that influence projectile trajectory. These typically

include:

 air temperature;

 air density;

 air pressure;

 air humidity;

 wind speed and direction.

By incorporating real-time or highly relevant

meteorological inputs into the fire direction process,

artillery units gain the ability to engage targets

without the need for prior adjustment salvos. This

capability enhances operational tempo, supports rapid

fire missions, and contributes to achieving tactical

surprise, thereby increasing the lethality and

effectiveness of indirect fire (Němec et al., 2022).

Meteorological considerations also play a key

role in the operational mobility of artillery assets. The

Evaluation Approaches for an Aggregated Meteorological Model for Artillery Operations

209

selection and planning of movement corridors linking

concealment zones, firing positions, and logistical

resupply points must reflect not only tactical and

terrain-based factors but also prevailing and

forecasted weather conditions. Ensuring mobility,

safety, and minimal exposure during transit is

particularly critical in dynamic combat scenarios

where the tempo of operations requires fast and often

pre-programmed route selection for reconnaissance

vehicles, fire support platforms, and logistic convoys

(Nohel et al., 2019; 2022).

3.1 Ascertaining of Meteorological

Conditions

Meteorological conditions can be detected in

different ways. Currently, the most widely used

method is the upper air sounding of the atmosphere,

which is carried out by specialized artillery units.

In the conditions of the artillery of the Czech

Army, the upper air sounding of the atmosphere is

carried out using the newly developed PODTEO

vehicle. This vehicle consists of a modified wheeled

M65E19WM 4×4 LMV Chassis Cab complete

with a CL 35ARM PODTEO trailer (Fig. 1).

Figure 1: PODTEO vehicle.

PODTEO vehicle is equipped with:

 meteorological computer Marwin MW32;

 radiotheodolite RT20;

 CG31 antenna set;

 surface station MAWS201M Tacmet.

The operation of this vehicle is based on the

ability to perform the upper air sounding and surface

observations and measurements. Upper air sounding

is realized by releasing meteorological balloons filled

with hydrogen, on which Vaisala RS92- SGP, RS41-

SGP or RS92-D radiosondes are attached (Fig. 2).

These radiosondes transmit meteorological data

to the RT20 radiotheodolite (Fig. 3). Upper air

sounding can be characterized as the main

component, because its goal is to find out the

meteorological conditions at individual heights, in

which artillery shells fly, and thus it is possible to

accurately determine the influence of meteorological

conditions on the flight of the shell.

Figures 2 and 3: Radiosonde and radiotheodolite RT-20.

3.2 Meteorological Messages

Meteorological messages represent the fundamental

output derived from upper-atmosphere soundings,

providing artillery and other combat elements with

vital environmental parameters. These reports

encapsulate a variety of atmospheric metrics, such as

surface-level pressure, virtual temperature, ground-

level wind vectors, and aggregated indicators like

average air density and temperature gradients, wind

profiles across selected altitudinal bands, and other

parameters relevant to ballistic computations.

The structure of these messages follows a strict

alphanumeric coding scheme. Data are encoded into

specific two and multi-digit numeric groups, where

each digit within a group conveys a predefined

physical quantity or state. The group positions are

fixed within the message format, allowing the

decoding software or operator to reliably extract and

interpret environmental data from the positional

context of each number. The sequential arrangement

of these groups in the message further denotes the

type and relevance of each dataset.

In practical artillery application, several variants

of meteorological messages are in routine use, such

as Meteo 11, METCM, METGM, METB3, and

METBK, depending on national doctrine and

equipment. These formats are either directly

processed by automated fire control systems or

manually interpreted to derive necessary corrections

for computing firing parameters.

Having access to these encoded meteorological

datasets is essential to achieving first-round target

effects without requiring bracketing or correction

salvos. The operational ability to autonomously

produce and disseminate these reports is therefore

critical to preserving the initiative, enhancing the

element of surprise, and ensuring accurate and lethal

artillery engagement (Blaha et al., 2018).

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3.3 Identified Downsides

Upper air sounding represents a well-established

technique for acquiring current atmospheric profiles

in proximity to deployed artillery assets. Its principal

advantage lies in the ability to collect real-time

meteorological parameters at the location of interest.

However, despite its operational utility, this method

exhibits several critical limitations that restrict its

broader application on the modern battlefield.

One of the key disadvantages is the limited spatial

validity of the collected data. Meteorological

information obtained via radiosonde release is highly

localized, making it less applicable for dispersed or

maneuvering fire units. Moreover, the method’s

reliance on active signal transmission exposes the

meteorological system to detection, geolocation, and

subsequent kinetic targeting by adversaries. This

vulnerability has been repeatedly observed in the

context of the Ukraine conflict, where hostile forces

prioritize the neutralization of meteorological

capabilities to degrade artillery accuracy (Hrnčiar &

Kompan, 2023). These vulnerabilities have been

confirmed in operational scenarios where adversaries

employed electronic warfare and long-range fires to

suppress meteorological units, thereby degrading the

accuracy of artillery fire. This highlights the urgent

need for methods resilient to enemy interference,

including passive and autonomous solutions.

A further drawback stems from the logistical and

personnel dependencies associated with upper air

sounding. Radiosonde operations require specialized

hardware and trained operators. Any disruption—

whether through equipment failure, attrition, or

operational constraints—can render the

meteorological support function inoperable. The

absence of atmospheric correction data reduces the

effectiveness of artillery fire missions, increasing

ammunition expenditure and logistical strain—

factors that carry growing strategic weight in

prolonged high-intensity conflicts (Šlouf et al., 2023).

In response to these limitations, alternative data

sources have been explored, including the use of

gridded meteorological fields generated by the World

Area Forecast Center (WAFC). These datasets offer

broader spatial coverage and eliminate the need for

on-site radiosonde launches. However, the

geographic distance between WAFC sampling grids

and actual artillery positions can result in data

inaccuracies. Furthermore, in active conflict zones,

reliability of data transmission becomes problematic

due to adversarial electronic warfare capabilities.

A notable operational challenge lies in the

distribution of meteorological messages. In

contemporary conflicts such as that in Ukraine,

advanced electronic attack systems have

demonstrated the capacity to jam or intercept

electromagnetic signals. This affects both the uplink

from airborne sensors and the downstream

dissemination of WAFC products. Consequently,

reliance on transmission-based meteorological

support may prove untenable under degraded

conditions (Blaha & Brabcová, 2010).

Given these constraints, it becomes imperative to

explore passive, autonomous meteorological

solutions that are independent of real-time sensing

and communication. Such systems must be resilient

to electronic disruption and capable of supporting

artillery fire control even under conditions of partial

or total sensor denial.

4 EMERGENCY

METEOROLOGICAL DATA

PREPARATION PROJECT

Based on the analysis of the current situation and

findings from the war in Ukraine, two key facts

regarding the meteorological preparation of artillery

were identified. Specifically, it is the fact that

meteorological preparation continues to be an

absolutely necessary part providing key data for

artillery, without which it is not and will not be

possible to fire accurately in the future. The second

fact is that the current methods of obtaining

meteorological data have a number of shortcomings,

which can very easily cause the non-delivery of this

vital data for any reason.

Based on the evaluation of the current situation,

the research team defined a new project, called

Emergency METEO, whose goal is to ensure the

availability of meteorological data for the needs of

artillery fire control in case of degradation of the

capabilities of artillery meteorological units or other

sources from which artillery units obtain

meteorological data.

4.1 Overall Project Concept

Project is based on the previous research areas which

dealt with artillery survey and meteorological units

(Ivan et al., 2023; Ivan et al., 2022) The core objective

of the project revolves around achieving autonomous

generation of meteorological data and subsequent

creation of meteorological messages, eliminating the

dependency on traditional sounding methods.

Evaluation Approaches for an Aggregated Meteorological Model for Artillery Operations

211

Initially, the research team recognized the

potential for autonomously determining

meteorological data through their work with fire

control systems.

Some of these software tools enable the

generation of comprehensive reports for specific

climate zones and seasons, even in the absence of

actual meteorological messages. While deriving

firing data from such generated messages may

generally yield better results than relying solely on

basic tabular values, the margin of error can still be

significant, often necessitating subsequent fire

adjustments. Consequently, the practical feasibility of

this method is minimal, as it does not guarantee

accurate fire effectiveness.

In response, the research team proposed a more

detailed approach to generating meteorological data

based on spatial and temporal conditions. This

enhanced method aims to utilize a richer dataset to

produce meteorological messages with greater

precision, facilitating firing without the need for

subsequent adjustments.

The team identified historical data as the primary

information source to develop a predictive

(statistical) model for generating future

meteorological data (meteorological messages). The

initial phase of the research focuses on defining the

spatial and temporal scales required for the intended

predictive model. This step lays the groundwork for

subsequent model development and refinement.

4.2 Spatial Scale

In the introductory part, the intention is to create a

predictive model that would cover the entire territory

of the Czech Republic. In order to achieve this spatial

coverage, it will be necessary to obtain historical

meteorological data from the largest possible

portfolio of measuring stations, which would

Figure 4: Maximum heights of artillery ammunition flight

path.

adequately cover the entire territory of the Czech

Republic. In this area, the first problematic aspect

arises regarding the requirements of artillery for

meteorological data and the resulting requirements

for character of sounding from a given measuring

station. One problematic part is the maximum height

from which meteorological data is collected.

The research project is primarily aim for the firing

of 155 mm effectors, which allow firing at distances

of up to 40 kilometers. As the distance increases, so

does the height that the shell reaches during flight,

and thus the height for which meteorological data

must be known. In the case of 155 mm effectors, it is

necessary to work with height parameters also related

to shooting at a high angle, when individual

projectiles reach greater heights than when shooting

at a low angle (Balon and Komenda, 2006).

According to the basic data on the height scale of

155 mm shells, it is therefore necessary that only

those stations that carried out upper air sounding of

the atmosphere up to a height of 20,000 meters AGL

are selected for the collection of historical data. (Fig.

4) The reason why this fact is problematic is that this

type of sounding is carried out by only a limited

number of meteorological stations on the territory of

the Czech Republic. With a smaller number of

meteorological stations, the coverage and therefore

the accuracy of the predictive model decreases. The

further away the place of application of the

aggregated meteorological data would be from the

meteorological station, the greater the error rate of the

predictive model will be.

It is this area that is a possible point of conflict on

which the research team plans to work so that it is

possible to find ways to also use data from

meteorological stations that carry out sounding, for

example by ground measurements or at lower

altitudes, which would increase the spatial coverage.

4.3 Temporal Scale

Another addressed area is the temporal scale for

which it will be possible to determine data from the

predictive model. As already mentioned, the artillery

needs to work with the most accurate data possible.

The intention of the research team is thus to prepare a

framework prediction of the meteorological situation

for individual days of the year, with the fact that this

general framework will be refined for sub-parts of the

given calendar day.

The output will be a predictive model within

which artillery specialists will be able to generate a

meteorological message for their position and a

specific part of the day of the year. Dividing the day

into individual time stages will be a separate area of

solution, because during the day we will find time

periods with higher weather stability and time periods

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212

where changes occur (for example, sunrise and

sunset, noon, etc.).

4.4 Project Workflow

It is already clear that the creation of such a model

will take a large amount of time and work, as it will

primarily involve working with a large amount of

historical data, which must be analyzed, sorted and

aggregated into a predictive model that can be further

used in specific applications. The research team has

currently defined the successive steps of work on the

new project, which they would like to implement in

the short, medium and long-term horizon.

4.5 Phase 1 (Short Term Horizon)

The primary objective of the first phase is to assess

the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed

emergency determination of meteorological

messages. This involves verifying whether the

generated meteorological data accurately reflect the

conditions, particularly in terms of their

representation within meteorological messages.

During this initial phase, the predictive model will

focus solely on data from one measurement station,

specifically Prague, spanning a retrospective period

of 20 years. Prague was chosen due to its adherence

to initial requirements, including comprehensive

measurements up to maximum altitudes (30-35 km)

and data storage capabilities dating back to 1974.

However, for model creation, only data from the last

20 years will be utilized. At the Prague station,

atmospheric soundings occur thrice daily (at 0, 6, and

12 hours UTC), with additional soundings available

upon request.

The primary aim of this phase is to ascertain the

feasibility of creating an applicable predictive model

for artillery purposes, with a practical experiment

planned to validate the model's accuracy against real

upper air sounding data. Successful results will pave

the way for phase 2, while any shortcomings will

prompt critical analysis and refinement.

4.6 Phase 2 (MID Term Horizon)

If the predictive model proves effective, the research

will advance to the second phase, aimed at expanding

its applicability to the entire Czech Republic. This

phase poses significant challenges as the initial

model, developed in phase 1 for a single

meteorological station, must now be extended to

cover the entire country.

One major challenge involves analyzing and

processing meteorological data from multiple stations

across varied terrain. Aggregating the model to areas

beyond the source station requires careful

consideration of terrain variability, selection of

interpolation methods for height data, choice of

numerical models, and comparison of data from

multiple stations relative to firing positions.

The objective of this phase is to produce a

predictive meteorological model applicable across

the Czech Republic.

4.7 Phase 3 (Long Term Horizon)

The overarching goal of the research implementation

is to advance the utilization of meteorological data by

developing an enhanced version of a predictive

statistical model. This progressive model aims not

only to generate meteorological messages for specific

times within a day but also to forecast outlooks for the

upcoming hours, days, and even weeks.

The ultimate objective is to discern the trajectory

of meteorological patterns over time, enabling the

refinement of the predictive model to provide

increasingly accurate forecasts for various time

frames, ranging from hours to weeks ahead.

5 APPROACH TO MODEL

EVALUATION

Apart from the creation of the meteorological model,

it was necessary to define the method of its

evaluation. Considering that this is a meteorological

model initially defined for use with artillery units, the

methodology of its evaluation was defined following

its direct use in determining the firing data. For the

evaluation of the model, the evaluation method was

determined in the first phase in the sense of the

method of determining the firing data - specifically,

the General preparation of the firing data was chosen.

This method of determining the firing data was

chosen because it is a method in which the firing data

are determined for actual meteorological, ballistic and

geophysical influences. General preparation thus

applies all measurable effects of both the weapon and

the surrounding environment to the firing.

5.1 Phase 1 (Short Term Horizon)

General preparation is one of the main ways of firing

data preparation in the artillery of the Czech Army.

This method of firing data preparation is used, with

partial differences, by most of the artillery of various

armies around the world. The main purpose of the

general preparation is to determine all possible

measurable influences with effect on the artillery

Evaluation Approaches for an Aggregated Meteorological Model for Artillery Operations

213

shell and thereby changing its trajectory. Within

artillery, there are always defined tabular firing

conditions. If the real conditions are different, the

trajectory of the shell deviates. As part of the general

preparation, the main purpose is to find out the

changes in the real conditions compared to the tabular

values, and for these changes to clearly define the

variation in the trajectory of the shell in direction and

distance. The general preparation of firing data

generally works with three groups of effects causing

the variation of the trajectory of the shell for which it

determines the corresponding distance (ΔD) and

deflection (ΔS) corrections for meteorological,

ballistic and geophysical effects according to

equations (1) and (2).

∆D = ∆DM + ∆DB + ∆DG (1)

∆S = ∆SM + ∆SB + ∆SG (2)

Where:

∆𝐷 is total range correction for actual

conditions

∆𝑆 is total deflection correction for actual

conditions

∆𝐷𝑀/∆𝑆𝑀 is range (direction) correction for

changes in meteorological conditions

∆𝐷𝐵/∆𝑆𝐵 is range (direction) correction for

changes in ballistic conditions

∆𝐷𝐺/∆𝑆𝐺 is range (direction) correction for

changes in geophysical conditions

Meteorological Conditions.

Meteorological conditions include effects that affect

the distance and deflection of the firing after the shell

leaves the barrel. The influence of meteorological

conditions was sufficiently described in the previous

parts of this article. Changes in meteorological

conditions are obtained from the meteorological

message METEO 11. Using data from this

meteorological message distance corrections will be

calculated for the following influences (Equation 3):

 change in ground air pressure at the altitude of

the firing position;

 change in air temperature at standard

meteorological altitudes;

 direction of ballistic wind;

 ballistic wind speed.

∆DM = ∆D∆H + ∆D∆T + ∆D∆W (3)

Where:

∆𝐷𝑀 is range correction for changes in

meteorological conditions

∆𝐷∆𝐻 is range correction for change of

barometric pressure

∆𝐷∆𝑇 is range correction for change of air

temperature

∆𝐷∆𝑊 is range correction for range wind

As part of the calculation, the individual components

of the influences defined by equations (4) to (8) are

followed.

∆D∆H = ∆HB × 0,1 × ∆XH (4)

Where:

∆𝐷∆𝐻 is range correction for change of

barometric pressure

∆𝐻𝐵 is actual change of surface barometric

pressure

∆X𝐻 is unit range correction for barometric

pressure change of 10 Torr

The individual measured variables must be

expressed as a difference from the tabular values as

part of the calculation of total corrections in distance

and deflection. The exact difference values from the

tabular values are determined by the following

equations.

∆HMDP = H – 750 (5)

Where:

∆

𝐻𝑀𝐷𝑃 is change in surface barometric

pressure

H is actual barometric pressure in

altitude of meteorological unit

750 is tabular barometric pressure value

(750 Torr)

∆D∆T = ∆τ × 0,1 × ∆XT (6)

Where:

∆𝐷∆𝑇 is range correction for change of air

temperature

∆τ is actual change of air temperature in

selected altitude

∆X𝑇 is unit range correction for air

temperature change of 10 °C

∆T = T − 15,9 (7)

Where:

∆T is change in air pressure

T is actual air temperature in altitude of

meteorological unit

15,9 is tabular air temperature (15,9 °C)

∆Dwx = wx × 0,1 × ∆Xwx (8)

Where:

∆𝐷𝑤𝑥 is range correction for range wind

𝑤𝑥 is actual value of range wind

∆X𝑤𝑥 is tabular correction for range wind of

10 m.s-1

Using data from this METEO 11 meteorological

message, deflection corrections calculated for the

transverse component of the ballistic wind will be

determined (Equation 9)

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∆SM = ∆SW (9)

Where:

∆𝑆𝑀 is total deflection correction for

changes in meteorological condition

∆𝑆𝑊 is deflection correction for cross wind

∆Sw = wz × 0,1 × ∆Zwz (10)

Where:

∆𝑆𝑤 is deflection correction for cross wind

𝑤𝑧 is actual crosswind value

∆Z𝑤𝑧 is tabular correction for cross wind of

10 m.s-1

Ballistic wind is a specific term that describes how

much wind, defined by direction and speed, affects

the flight of the shell. Depending on the direction in

which the ballistic wind affects the flight of the shell,

we decompose the range and cross wind vector. For

the distribution into individual vectors, it is first

necessary to determine the angle of wind according to

equation (5).

Aw = αS − αw (11)

Where:

𝐴𝑤 is angle of wind

α𝑆 is direction of fire

α𝑤 is direction of wind

Individual vectors are then determined according

to equations (6) and (7).

wx = w × cos Aw

(12)

wz = w × sin Aw

(13)

Where:

w𝑥 is actual value of range wind

w𝑧 is actual value of cross wind

w is actual value of wind speed

𝐴𝑤 is angle of wind

Ballistic conditions.

Ballistic firing conditions are determined during a

process known as ballistic preparation. Ballistic

conditions include those influences that affect the

distance and deflection of the firing and are active

mainly until the moment when the shell leaves the

barrel and partially also on the flight path of the shell.

Ballistic effects depend on the type and construction

of the effector and the type of used ammunition. For

the purposes of evaluating the meteorological model,

the firing data will be prepared for the standard

effector of the Army of the Czech Republic, namely

the 152mm SPG M-77 DANA.

The purpose of the ballistic preparation is to

determine the changes in the ballistic characteristics

of the effector and ammunition against the tabular

values. Based on the identified changes from the

tabular values, distance and direction corrections for

ballistic firing conditions are then prepared

(Equations 14 and 15).

∆DB = ∆Dv0 + ∆DCT + ∆

DCh + ∆DCol (14)

Where:

∆𝐷𝐵 is total range correction for changes in

ballistic conditions

∆𝐷𝑣0 is range correction for change in

muzzle velocity

∆𝐷𝐶𝑇 is range correction for change in

charge temperature

∆𝐷𝐶ℎ is range correction for change in used

charge type

∆𝐷𝐶𝑜𝑙 is range correction for change in

unpainted shell body

For the evaluation of the proposed meteorological

model, all ballistic effects listed above will be

evaluated as tabular. This solution was chosen in

order to distance and deflection corrections caused by

changing meteorological conditions stand out clearly.

Simply said, the values inserted into equation (14)

will be zero.

In the case of direction correction, the only

influence considered is spin drift, which is the lateral

(directional) deviation of the shell caused by the

rotation of the shell (Equation 15). This phenomenon

is caused by rotational stabilization, which helps to

direct and thus improve the accuracy of the shell's

flight. The rotational movement is given to the shell

by the bore of the barrel. Spin drift is thus a

phenomenon that manifests itself in all guns with a

grooved barrel bore. It is obvious that this

phenomenon is negligible for small caliber weapons.

However, with increasing firing distance, the lateral

deviation of the shell increases, and if the firing was

not compensated for spin drift, the target would not

be hit. This is especially evident with artillery

weapons, which can fire at a distance of several

dozens of kilometers.

∆SB = Z (15)

Where:

∆𝑆𝐵 is total deflection correction for

change in ballistic conditions

𝑍 is tabular deflection correction for spin

drift

Spin drift values are clearly defined in the firing

tables for each distance, and it is thus possible to

quantify them precisely. Unlike ballistic influences

affecting the distance, the spin drift will not be zero,

but will correspond to precisely selected distances.

Evaluation Approaches for an Aggregated Meteorological Model for Artillery Operations

215

Geophysical Conditions.

Geophysical conditions can have a large effect on the

direction of artillery fire. In particular, the direction

and speed of the Earth's rotation have significant

consequences for the artillery fires.

A crucial variable is the Coriolis Effect: Due to

the Earth's rotation, a shell moving on the Earth's

surface has an apparent deflection due to the Coriolis

Effect. This effect is caused by a combination of the

Earth's rotation and the forward motion of the shell.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the influence of the

Coriolis effect is such that shells seem to deflect to

the right, while in the Southern Hemisphere the

deflection is to the left. This variation is most

noticeable with long-range shells or shells fired on

long distances.

Another necessary variable is the speed of the

Earth's rotation. The speed of the Earth's rotation also

affects artillery fire, especially when it comes to

variations caused by the Corio-press effect. At

locations with a higher rotational speed of the Earth,

such as the equator, the deviations caused by the

Coriolis effect are more significant than at locations

with a lower rotational speed, such as the poles.

Consider these geophysical phenomena is

necessary for accurate calculation of firing data and

effective target engagement, especially in long

distances fires or in different geographical areas. The

rules of firing and fire control in the Czech Army

assess the geophysical effects during artillery fire at

distances of less than 25 km as negligible. Due to the

fact that for the evaluation of the model, the effector

will be 152mm SPG M-77 DANA, whose maximum

range is around 20 kilometers, geophysical influences

will be considered as zero for the evaluation of the

meteorological model.

5.2 Initial Conditions for Model

Evaluation

The general preparation of firing data for artillery fire

has clearly established conditions of its execution.

These conditions relate to the spatial validity of

distance and direction corrections, requirements for

the distance of the meteorological station from the

firing position, etc.

From the point of view of the verification of the

meteorological model, these conditions had to be

modified in such a way that its applicability could be

qualitatively evaluated. From the point of view of

spatial validity, it was first of all necessary to define

for which firing directions and distances the

meteorological model will be evaluated, while the

basic principle applied by the authors in the

evaluation proposal was complexity. For this reason,

4 main directions of distance were defined, which are

identical with the cardinal directions, i.e. North,

South, East and West. In the first instance, the

author's collective assessed a more detailed

distribution of the firing directions as inexpedient.

However, the situation is different in the case of the

distance of the firing. In this case, the authors' effort

was to comprehensively divide the maximum firing

distance of the 152mm SPG M-77 so that all

individual layers of the meteorological report were

covered, and the model thus comprehensively

covered both the firing distance and equally divided

meteorological sounding altitudes. For this reason,

the firing data were calculated for the distance of 6,

7.8; 10; 10.4; 12.2; 13; 13.8; 14.8; 17.1 and 18

kilometers. One of the main aspects of the evaluation

is that, unlike the standard use of a meteorological

station, the process will be set up so that the

meteorological station is placed in exactly the same

position as the firing unit, which is the location for

which the firing data will be calculated (Fig. 5).

The evaluation process itself will then be based

exclusively on the basis of comparative analysis,

when the total range and deflection correction

calculated by the general preparation method using

the meteorological message compiled using the

meteorological model and the real meteorological

message obtained from real measurements will be

evaluated against each other. Overall, the

meteorological model will be evaluated by a

comparative analysis of the General Preparation

calculated for all indicated directions and all

distances. In total, there will be 44 results of general

preparation calculated according to the

meteorological model and 44 results of general

preparation calculated according to the real

meteorological report.

Figure 5: Positional chart for comparative calculation of

general preparation.

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However, such an evaluation would lack a time

variable. For this reason, the same

calculation/comparison process will be performed for

four different times. Specifically, it will be real

meteorological reports obtained in each quarter of the

year.

The own evaluation of the comparative data will

also be a separate variable. Due to the circularity of

the network (Fig. 5) and the change in time data, the

author's team is considering the application of the

Rose diagram method.

6 CONCLUSION

The Emergency METEO project originates from

recent observations in the conflict in Ukraine, where

the impact of modern technologies on warfare, both

positive and negative, has become evident. In terms

of artillery, modern technologies significantly

enhance its capabilities and effectiveness. Accuracy

and long range are fundamental factors determining

the outcome of artillery fire, leading to a shift away

from mass deployment towards precision targeting.

In this evolving landscape, providing

meteorological data for fire control support becomes

crucial. However, modern conflict environments pose

challenges such as capability degradation due to

enemy activity or harsh battlefield conditions. The

Emergency METEO project aims to safeguard the

supply of meteorological data in such scenarios,

recognizing its critical importance.

The project's goal is to develop a predictive

meteorological model based on historical data. This

model would enable the generation of meteorological

messages without relying on upper air sounding or

external sources. Currently in its initial phase, the

research team is exploring various approaches to data

evaluation. The project's hypothesis is that data from

a predictive weather model will be accurate and

applicable to artillery fire. The ongoing development

phase aims to validate this hypothesis and identify

any potential issues.

One of the key elements of model development is

its evaluation. This evaluation must be complex and

precise enough, to discover all possible inaccuracies.

Because of this, it is essential to conduct the

evaluation in a way that corresponds to calculation of

firing data since the model is created mainly for

artillery. Evaluation done in a proposed way will

ensure that all minor flows would be discovered and

ensures whether it is possible to continue in

development process and research itself.

The model’s usefulness will be explicitly

evaluated by comparing corrections derived from the

predictive data to those based on real atmospheric

soundings across 44 scenarios and 4 seasonal periods,

offering a statistically grounded measure of

operational applicability.

Success in this research would represent a

significant advancement towards artillery autonomy.

NATO artillery units would gain expanded

capabilities, allowing them to fulfill their primary

tasks more effectively.

Although current results are preliminary, future

phases of the project will focus on structured

evaluation of model output using archived METB3

data and firing-table-derived indicators of ballistic

accuracy.

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