Impact of Sea Level Rise on Landscape Ecology in the Greater Bay

Area Under Global Warming Effect

Fan Zhang

College of Life Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

Keywords: Global Warming, Sea Level Rise, Greater Bay Area, Landscape Ecology.

Abstract: In the context of escalating global climate change, sea level rise has emerged as a pressing global concern.

This phenomenon exerts a profound influence not only on coastal landscapes and land use patterns, but also

on biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human life. As a vibrant and promising urban agglomeration in

China and globally, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area confronts particularly acute

challenges and threats to its landscape patterns and biodiversity due to rising sea levels. The primary objective

of this study is to scrutinize the implications of sea level rise on the landscape ecology of the Guangdong-

Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area amidst the backdrop of global warming, and to propose pertinent

adaptive measures and management recommendations grounded in predictive analyses. The outcomes of this

research will significantly contribute to the formulation of a strategic framework for managing sea level rise

in the Greater Bay Area, providing policymakers with invaluable information and tools to safeguard the

region's landscapes, biodiversity, and human communities in the midst of ongoing climate change.

1 INTRODUCTION

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's

(IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report underscores the

remarkable escalation in global surface temperatures

and forecasts a continual augmentation in sea levels

attributed to anthropogenic global warming. Notably,

the real-world emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are

anticipated to contribute significantly to substantial

rises in sea levels towards the end of the century.

When comparing the 2011-2020 average global

surface temperature with the baseline period of 1850-

1900, a significant increase of 1.1°C is observed, with

further projections indicating a potential rise of 1-

2°C. Concurrently, human-induced global warming is

a major driver of glacier melting, thereby intensifying

the upward trend in sea levels. Specifically, the IPCC

predicts that by the century's end, real CO2 emissions

will elevate sea levels by 32-76 cm, and by the middle

of the next century, an intermediate estimate suggests

an increase of 37-133 cm. Extensive research had

identified the primary causes of sea-level rise since

1900 as the combined effects of thermal expansion of

the ocean and enhanced ice-mass loss from Greenland

(

Frederikse et al, 2020, Anny & Gonéri, 2014). The

direct consequences of this phenomenon encompass

coastline erosion, flooding, salinization of water

resources, habitat fragmentation, and numerous other

detrimental impacts, significantly impacting coastal

regions. Some studies have emphasized that the

escalating sea levels will profoundly reshape the

coastal landscape of the 21st century (Taherkhani et

al, 2020). Researchers investigated North Carolina's

largest coastal wildlife refuge reveals that alterations

in land use patterns due to sea-level rise will further

compromise wetland functions, wildlife habitats, and

the global carbon cycle (Ury et al, 2021). It is

estimated that approximately half of the world's cities

with a population exceeding one million are situated

in coastal zones, which are economically vibrant,

densely populated, and play a pivotal role in

advancing socio-economic development at the

regional, national, and global levels (Lifang et al,

2014). The increasing levels of seas and oceans due

to global warming pose a substantial threat to the

daily lives of residents residing in coastal and low-

lying areas. In this context, researchers has advanced

adaptive measures to mitigate the potential impacts of

sea-level rise (Nazarnia et al, 2020).

In recent decades, the coastline of the Guangdong-

Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) has

exhibited dynamic and increasingly frequent

alterations, primarily attributed to anthropogenic

factors encompassing land reclamation, national

Zhang, F.

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Landscape Ecology in the Greater Bay Area Under Global Warming Effect.

DOI: 10.5220/0013875900004914

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Renewable Energy and Ecosystem (ICREE 2024), pages 209-213

ISBN: 978-989-758-776-4

209

policies, and urbanization processes. Against the

backdrop of a rising sea level, the landscape ecology

of the GBA is vulnerable to the combined pressures

of human interventions and climate change (Hu et al,

2021). While previous studies have predominantly

focused on the impacts of human activities, this paper

adopts a natural perspective to scrutinize the

influence of sea-level rise induced by global warming

on the dynamic evolution of landscape patterns and

the conservation of biodiversity within the GBA. The

escalating vulnerability of the GBA to sea-level rise

underscores the imperative for comprehensive

research and proactive adaptation strategies.

By examining the natural drivers of landscape

transformation and biodiversity decline, this study

aims to provide profound insights into the ecological

implications of sea-level rise in this region.

Furthermore, it contributes to the formulation of

targeted adaptation measures that prioritize the

enhancement of ecosystem resilience and the

conservation of biodiversity. By integrating the

findings of this research with existing knowledge on

human-induced landscape modifications,

policymakers and stakeholders can devise holistic

strategies that address both the direct and indirect

consequences of sea-level rise. Ultimately, this

interdisciplinary approach will bolster the sustainable

development of the GBA in the face of ongoing

climate change, fostering a harmonious balance

between ecological integrity, socio-economic growth,

and human well-being.

2 IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

ON THE GREATER BAY AREA

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay

Area (GBA), spanning an area of 5.59 × 104 km² and

situated in the southern region of China (111°21'E-

114°53'E, 21°28'N-24°29'N), encompasses nine

cities in Guangdong Province (Guangzhou,

Shenzhen, Shantou, Zhuhai, Foshan, Huizhou,

Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing) as well

as the special administrative regions of Hong Kong

and Macao. Characterized by a subtropical humid

monsoon climate, the GBA boasts an average annual

temperature ranging from 21.4 to 22.4°C and an

average annual precipitation of 1800 mm.

Geographically, the GBA enjoys exceptional

advantages, surrounded by mountains on three sides

and converged by three rivers, possessing a lengthy

coastline, a robust port system, and an expansive

maritime area. Despite occupying less than 1% of

China's landmass and housing approximately 5% of

its population, the GBA contributes a significant 11%

to the country's total economic output, positioning it

as one of the most open and dynamic regions in

China. With a robust economic foundation and

industrial prowess, the GBA serves as a crucial

window and platform for China's economic

development and international engagement.

2.1 Impact on Region Ecology Safety

The direct consequence of sea level rise on coastal

regions is inundation and flood disasters. The

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

(GBA), with its exceptionally extensive coastline and

low-lying terrain surrounded by hills on three sides,

is particularly vulnerable to slight fluctuations in sea

level, which can lead to inundation of significant

urban areas. For instance, an increase in sea level by

merely 0.3m would bring the tidal level of the Pearl

River estuary close to the astronomical high tide

level, thereby impeding drainage and potentially

causing flood disasters when coupled with heavy

rainfall. Furthermore, sea level rise also reduces the

return period of storm surges. Specifically, a 0.1m

rise in sea level would decrease the return period of a

once-in-200-year storm surge in Guangzhou to 145

years, while a 0.3m rise would further shorten it to 75

years (Yaodong et al, 2004). Research and

simulations conducted that under a low sea level rise

scenario of 0.3m, the inundation area is primarily

concentrated around the Pearl River estuary (Lehua et

al, 2022). Additionally, the central part of Zhuhai is

also affected. Under a moderate scenario of 1.0m sea

level rise, the inundated area of coastal regions

encompassing Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou,

Zhongshan, Zhuhai, and Jiangmen expands

significantly. When sea levels rise to 1.6m, a high

forecast scenario, the coastal plains of Guangzhou

and Zhongshan, as well as most areas of Zhuhai, are

inundated. Additionally, the inland regions along the

rivers within the GBA also experience flooding due

to sea level rise. On a broader scale, the inundated

area within the entire GBA continues to expand with

rising sea levels. Even relatively modest sea level

rises pose a threat of inundation to most coastal cities.

Significant sea level rises, however, will impact all 11

cities within the GBA to varying degrees.

Concurrently, as the transitional zone between land

and sea, the GBA's coastal areas serve as a crucial

ecological buffer, supporting diverse ecosystems and

providing vital ecological services. However, the

impact of sea level rise on these ecosystems is

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complex and multifaceted, necessitating further in-

depth research and analysis.

2.2 Impact on Landscape

In the context of academic rigor, sea level rise is

anticipated to induce substantial alterations in the

proportional distribution of various landscape types,

thereby augmenting the fragmentation, complexity,

and heterogeneity of landscape patterns. The

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

(GBA) exemplifies a diversified landscape

composition. Construction land, comprising urban

areas and residential zones that harbor significant

populations and resources, is predominantly

concentrated in the central and coastal regions.

Conversely, woodland, encompassing diverse forest

types such as dense and open woodland, shrubs, and

other wooded areas, is located in the higher elevations

of the southwest and northern sections of the GBA.

The phenomenon of sea level rise poses a

considerable inundation threat to various landscape

types within the GBA, particularly wetlands and

construction land. As sea levels ascend, coastal

environments like beaches and wetlands are prone to

damage from wave and seawater erosion, leading to

the recession of coastlines. Additionally, the rise in

sea levels may inundate urban settlements and

residential areas situated below the original coastline,

jeopardizing agricultural lands (rice paddies, dry

farmland), aquaculture ponds, and critical

transportation infrastructure vital for sustaining

human life. Moreover, the intensified storm surges

and seawater erosion associated with sea level rise

can contribute to land salinization, posing a threat to

food security and the availability of freshwater

resources. The destruction of these facilities not only

disrupts the normal production and living conditions

of humans but also threatens the stability and

functionality of ecosystem services.

2.3 Impact on Biodiversity

Sea level rise represents a significant threat not only

to various landscape types and thereby the normal life

of humans, but also to the conservation of

biodiversity within the Greater Bay Area. Coastal

regions, as critical ecosystems bridging land and sea,

offer invaluable resources for biological survival and

reproduction, and play a pivotal role in maintaining

the equilibrium of food chains and ecosystems. The

unique ecological milieu of the Guangdong-Hong

Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area serves as a habitat for

numerous rare and endangered species, and

furthermore, it constitutes an essential habitat and

ecological corridor for migratory birds and animals.

The escalation of sea levels, attributed to global

warming, is anticipated to result in the erosion of

biological habitats. Additionally, the fragmentation

and heterogeneity of landscapes, stemming from

alterations in land use types and functions, will

further exacerbate this challenge. Organisms will thus

be confronted with the dual predicament of habitat

inundation and fragmentation, posing significant

challenges to their survival.

The mangrove ecosystem, a distinctive coastal

habitat, plays a pivotal role in safeguarding

biodiversity and supplying diverse ecosystem

services. Its robust root system efficiently filters

pollutants and sediments from the aquatic

environment, while its intricate root network and

dense foliage withstand storm surges and waves,

safeguarding the coast from erosion. Additionally,

mangroves serve as significant carbon sinks within

the global ecosystem, sequestering and storing vast

quantities of carbon dioxide, thereby contributing

significantly to the mitigation of global climate

change. In the context of global warming and sea

level rise, natural alterations in coastal regions not

only jeopardize wildlife habitats but also adversely

affect the global climate. Coastal erosion and

flooding can destroy mangrove ecosystems, leading

to the release of their stored carbon, thus amplifying

climate change. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao

Greater Bay Area is particularly rich in mangrove

resources, boasting natural protected areas such as the

Futian Mangrove Reserve in Shenzhen and the Bay

Mangrove Area in Jiangmen Town. Recent studies

have revealed that with the rise in sea level, mangrove

and tidal flat habitats in the Greater Bay Area are

experiencing severe degradation (Wang et al, 2024).

This phenomenon further compounds the threat to

biodiversity conservation in the region, emphasizing

the need for urgent conservation measures and

policies to safeguard these crucial ecosystems.

3 SUGGESTIONS

3.1 Sustainable Urban Planning and

Land Use Policies

To scientifically mitigate and manage the various

changes and disasters stemming from sea level rise, a

comprehensive understanding of the underlying

evolutionary patterns of extreme weather disasters is

paramount. Ensuring the continued functionality and

services of ecosystems necessitates the adoption of

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Landscape Ecology in the Greater Bay Area Under Global Warming Effect

211

scientific planning and design methodologies. The

impact of sea level rise is heterogeneous, varying

across landscapes, land use types, altitudes, and

regions. Therefore, tailored strategies are essential for

addressing this challenge. For instance, it is advisable

to avoid the construction of crucial infrastructure and

urban expansion, such as residential areas, in

vulnerable coastal zones. Elevating crucial facilities,

strengthening physical defenses, and relocating them

to inland areas when necessary are all viable options.

A multifaceted approach combining these strategies

is recommended. In the context of rising sea levels,

the human living environment and biological habitats

in coastal regions are bound to be affected in the

future. Compared to a blind retreat strategy,

extending into the sea represents a sustainable

development path (Wenting et al, 2017). Currently,

innovative practices such as "floating cities,"

"ecological floating islands," and "aquatic

architecture" are being explored globally. These

attempts may emerge as significant research focuses

in the future, particularly in the context of climate

change.

3.2 Strengthen Safety Monitoring and

Risk Assessment

In the context of the inevitable rise in sea levels, it is

crucial to enhance dynamic monitoring and

management of coastlines. This involves conducting

ecological security monitoring and risk assessments

to establish a dynamic protection mechanism with

effective response strategies. Management efforts

should prioritize protection and manual intervention

based on the varying impact gradients of sea level

rise. Maximizing the disaster prevention and

mitigation capabilities of existing engineering

measures is imperative. This includes improving the

capacity and mechanisms for responding to natural

disasters, while fully leveraging the disaster

prevention and mitigation potential of natural

ecosystems. To strengthen coastline management, the

construction of seawalls, artificial beaches, and

artificial islands should be prioritized. Furthermore,

appropriate protection and restoration measures

should be implemented to mitigate the adverse

impacts of storm surges and waves on coastal

habitats.

3.3 Improve Ecosystem Resilience

Constructing resilient cities, bolstering the resilience

and stability of ecosystems, regulating and sustaining

the value of natural ecosystem service functions, and

harnessing their role in diverse ecological

environments are pivotal in addressing the risks and

challenges posed by sea level rise. To enhance habitat

stability and resilience, it is imperative to safeguard

biodiversity through the establishment of green

infrastructure such as constructed wetlands and

intertidal protected areas. Additionally, the protection

and restoration of mangrove ecosystems must be

prioritized, with restrictions on logging and

development activities, along with strengthened

monitoring and law enforcement to ensure their

effectiveness in protection and climate regulation.

Based on local ecological conditions, green

ecological corridors should be constructed to

facilitate the migration and dispersal of wildlife,

fostering gene flow and population exchange,

ultimately enhancing biodiversity.

3.4 International Cooperation and

Public Awareness

To effectively address the challenges posed by sea

level rise and habitat erosion, it is crucial to elevate

public awareness through educational and advocacy

initiatives, thereby fostering public participation and

cooperation. Concurrently, we must reinforce

international exchanges, cooperation, and knowledge

sharing to collectively confront the global warming

and rising sea level challenges. This can be achieved

through collaborative research efforts, technology

transfer, and resource sharing mechanisms.

4 CONCLUSIONS

As global warming persists and its ramifications

intensify, the rising sea level poses an increasingly

grave threat to the urban centers within the

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

Yearly, these metropolitan landscapes are becoming

increasingly vulnerable to a spectrum of extreme

natural disasters, including typhoons, floods, and

storm surges, which are exacerbated by the incessant

rise in sea levels. The risks of inundation not only

jeopardize the safety of inhabitants but also constitute

a significant impediment to the ecological

sustainability of these urban centers. Concurrently,

the landscape patterns in this region are undergoing

profound transformations, often culminating in the

loss and fragmentation of habitats. This dual

predicament of habitat loss and fragmentation

significantly threatens biodiversity, thereby

diminishing the resilience of local ecosystems and

their capacity to adapt to environmental alterations.

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212

The depletion of natural habitats disrupts the delicate

equilibrium between species, adversely affecting the

food chain and the overall stability of the ecosystem.

Moreover, the degradation of ecosystem functions

and services due to climate change further

compounds this issue. In response to the pressing

challenges posed by climate change, it is of utmost

importance to implement adaptive measures that are

comprehensive and multi-faceted.

The significance of the present study lies in its

provision of a novel perspective and framework for

comprehending, analyzing, and responding to the

multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.

Specifically, the findings contribute significantly to

advancing our understanding of the vulnerabilities of

urban ecosystems within the Guangdong-Hong

Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to rising sea levels,

extreme weather events, and the associated threats to

biodiversity. Furthermore, this research offers

valuable insights into the development of targeted

strategies for ecological protection and restoration,

thereby fostering the sustainable development of the

Greater Bay Area and beyond.

The current study presents the observations and

prevailing trends pertaining to ecosystem

vulnerability; however, it lacks a comprehensive

analysis of the underlying mechanisms, intricate

interactions between diverse factors, and the specific

pathways that influence this vulnerability.

Recognizing the complexity of climate change and its

implications for ecosystem health, future research

endeavors must embrace an interdisciplinary

approach, integrating knowledge from diverse fields

to effectively address this multifaceted challenge.

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