The Impact of Climate Change on the Migration Patterns of Fish

Populations

Shangyun Li

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Barnard College, Columbia University,

3009 Broadway, New York, NY 10027, U.S.A.

Keywords: Climate Change, Marine Ecosystems, Fish Migration.

Abstract: Climate change is reshaping marine ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, with significant increases in global

temperatures leading to detrimental effects on the ocean's biophysical properties. This essay examines the

profound impact of climate change on the migratory patterns of fish populations, as well as the cascading

effects on marine biodiversity, human economies, and cultural practices. With a focus on the increased water

temperatures, acidification, and sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic warming, the paper explores how these

factors compel marine species to alter their traditional migratory routes, leading to ecological and evolutionary

changes. The essay also discusses specific case studies, such as the response of salmon populations in

Washington State, to illustrate the multifaceted nature of the crisis, and that these changes are far-reaching,

affecting fishery yields, food security, and international relations. Finally, this paper assesses conservation

strategies and policy changes necessary to mitigate these impacts, emphasizing ecosystem-based

management, marine protected areas, and climate change mitigation efforts. The synthesis presented

highlights the need for immediate and robust action to ensure the sustainability of marine life and human

societies reliant upon it

1 INTRODUCTION

With global temperatures reportedly set to rise by

1.1 ℃, marine systems have become silent witnesses

to the unspoken devastation of climate change. An

alarming 60 percent of the world's marine ecosystems

have already suffered degradation or unsustainable

exploitation (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018). The

ocean, as the largest carbon sink on the planet, has

absorbed about 90% of the excess heat from human-

induced greenhouse gas emissions, culminating in a

series of catastrophic events: melting ice caps, rising

sea levels, intensified marine heatwaves, and

progressing ocean acidification. This has set off a

domino effect, impacting marine biodiversity and the

global population reliant on these vital resources. Sea

level rise has accelerated from 2013 to 2021,

averaging 4.5 millimetres per year, and the incidence

of ocean heat waves has doubled since the 1970s (Lee

and Romero, 2023). With over half of the marine

species projected to be at the brink of extinction by

2100 should the current temperature trends persist,

the prognosis for marine and coastal ecosystems

appears dire. A2 ℃ rise in temperatures is estimated

to cause massive loss of coral reefs. The climate crisis

is degrading the very migratory essence of marine

life, with fish populations as the indicators of this

aquatic upheaval.

2 OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE

CHANGE

Climate Change, also referred to as “Global

Warming” refers to the uptick in global temperatures

as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse

gas in Earth’s atmosphere (Shukla et al., 2022).

Known as the greenhouse effect, greenhouse gases

trap the Sun’s radiation and preserve the warmth of

the planet. However, global industrialization on Earth

has led to a steady spike in CO₂ concentrations, the

main greenhouse gas. With the equilibrium of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere pushed higher

and higher due to industrialization, clear global

problems have been realized.

Since 1850, the earth's combined land and ocean

temperature has steadily climbed at an average rate of

Li, S.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Migration Patterns of Fish Populations.

DOI: 10.5220/0013845900004914

Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In Proceedings of the 2nd Inter national Conference on Renewable Energy and Ecosystem (ICREE 2024), pages 69-75

ISBN: 978-989-758-776-4

0.11℉ (0.06℃) per decade, cumulatively rising by

approximately 2℉ (Hayhoe et al., 2018). More

concerning is the accelerated pace of warming

observed since 1982, which has seen temperatures

rising more than threefold, at 0.36℉ (0.20℃) per

decade (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018). This uptick in

temperature is catalyzing extreme weather

phenomena worldwide, with heat waves setting new

records both on land and in the oceans.

Unprecedented rains, catastrophic floods, enduring

droughts, rampant wildfires, and hurricane-induced

floods are increasingly becoming the norm rather than

the exception. Additionally, ice caps melting are

increasing the acidification, sea level, and

temperatures of the oceans. These evolving climate

patterns portend greater challenges for our societies

and natural environments, presenting complex issues

that will only become more acute in the forthcoming

decades.

For marine ecosystems in particular, the rapid

changes in global weather and ocean conditions have

led to increasingly apparent ecosystem-wide

symptoms. Extreme weather events, such as the 2014

marine heatwave, have led to significant wildlife

casualties (Pershing et al., 2018). During this event,

many sea lion pups starved due to the relocation of

their food sources, highlighting the devastating

impacts that climate-driven changes can have on

marine species and their habitats. Furthermore,

changing temperatures is directly leading to changes

in fish migration patterns. Projections indicate that by

2060, there could be declines of 20% to 30% in fish

catches on America's East Coast due to the northward

migration of fish species as waters warm. This shift

in distribution poses challenges for the fishing

industry and local economies dependent on these

resources. As migration and food patterns of the

oceans change, entire ecosystems are put in jeopardy.

3 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE ON FISH

MIGRATION

3.1 Fish Migration Patterns

3.1.1 Basic Principles of Fish Migration

Fish migrate to optimize survival and reproductive

success, guided by environmental cues like

photoperiod, temperature, and water levels (Nikola et

al, 2022). These migrations are critical for finding

suitable spawning grounds, securing food resources,

and evading unfavourable conditions or predators.

The study highlights that the lengthening of daylight

hours is a universal cue prompting fish to migrate,

with this signal being particularly influential on the

timing and scale of these movements. In essence, fish

are biologically programmed to respond to the subtle

changes in daylight that herald the changing seasons,

with each species having evolved specific patterns of

movement that are synchronized with these natural

rhythms.

3.1.2 Traditional Migration Patterns

Each fish species has historically followed distinct

migration patterns, shaped by evolutionary pressures

and ecological demands. Cyprinids, for example,

commonly migrate in the spring, aligning their

movements with the need for spawning habitats and

food availability (Nikola et al, 2022). Salmonids, in

contrast, undertake their upstream journeys mainly

during summer and autumn, possibly due to different

reproductive cycles and habitat preferences. These

patterns represent a complex interplay between

genetic predispositions and the species' adaptability

to the riverine or lacustrine ecosystems they inhabit.

The study emphasizes that while these traditional

patterns are well-established, they are subject to

alteration under the influence of environmental

changes, particularly in artificial settings like

reservoirs, which can significantly impact the

migratory behaviors of both native and non-native

fish populations.

3.2 Impact of Climate Change on Fish

Migration and Marine Ecosystems

Environmental factors that trigger fish migration have

been altered by climate change, leading to changes in

phenology. Such changes in migration can have

cascading impacts across the entire lifecycles of

migratory fish-from the timing of spawning itself to

the development of larvae and survival of juveniles-

ultimately reverberating through the aquatic

ecosystems they inhabit, and fish that typically

migrate to spawn may now be undertaking these

crucial movements earlier or later in the year as they

respond to warming waters or changing seasonal

patterns that are out of sync with evolutionary time

(Tamario et al., 2019).

The disruption of the age-old migration patterns

is a factor of the built-in evolutionary sensors fish

have. Many ectothermic fish rely on living in waters

that match their specific living temperatures. As

water temperatures rise due to global warming, these

ICREE 2024 - International Conference on Renewable Energy and Ecosystem

fish must search for cooler waters that remain within

their optimal thermal ranges for growth, survival, and

reproduction (Tamario et al., 2019). This behavioral

shift often sees fish populations moving poleward or

to greater depths, disrupting their traditional

migratory routes and cycles in ways that can lead to

mismatches between the timing of their journeys and

the availability of suitable spawning grounds or food

resources along the way.

For fish migrating between freshwater and marine

environments, sea level rise and shifts in salinity

gradients brought about by climate change present

further challenges. As oceans swell, saltwater can

intrude farther into coastal estuaries and river

systems, reaching upstream areas used by migratory

fish for spawning and nursery habitats. These altered

salinity gradients can disrupt critical physiological

processes in fish like osmoregulation, which balances

salt and water levels internally (Hayhoe et al., 2018).

The combined effects of habitat inundation and

salinity changes may hinder the ability of diadromous

species to successfully migrate, find suitable areas to

spawn, and maintain robust populations. The impacts

of climate change, however, go beyond just

behavioral adaptations in migration timing and

routes. As migratory fish face new selection pressures

from altered temperature regimes, changing habitats,

and other stressors, they may evolutionarily adapt

through shifts in traits governing migration, survival

strategies, and other vital characteristics. Over

generations, fish populations may evolve to migrate

at different times, follow new paths, or develop

physiological adaptations to cope with rapidly

changing environments. This can drive increasing

genetic divergence, potentially leading to the

emergence of new locally-adapted ecotypes or sub-

species-reshaping fish communities and the

structures of entire aquatic ecosystems, with

cascading effects on biodiversity and ecosystem

services.

In light of these multifaceted threats,

understanding and addressing the impacts of climate

change on migratory fish patterns is crucial for

effective conservation and sustainable management

of aquatic resources. As fish migrations shift in

timing, routes, and species compositions,

conservation strategies must also evolve to keep pace,

taking an adaptive, forward-looking approach that

accounts for both current conditions and projected

future scenarios. This may necessitate establishing

new protected areas, restoring critical habitats, and

developing flexible management plans that can

accommodate the changing migratory needs of fish

populations over time. Moreover, prioritizing the

maintenance of genetic diversity and the preservation

of diverse migratory behaviors within and across

species will be vital for bolstering the resilience of

migratory fish in the face of ongoing climate change

impacts. Only through such robust, climate-informed

policies can we hope to sustain the ecological,

economic, and cultural services provided by these

iconic animal migrations in a rapidly warming world.

4 IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN

SOCIETY AND SOLUTIONS

4.1 Direct Economic Impacts

Changes in fish migration patterns driven by climate

change are having significant economic ramifications

for the fishing industry and seafood supply chains. As

fish populations shift distributions to stay within their

preferred temperature ranges or follow shifting food

sources, they may abandon traditional fishing

grounds. This can lead to reduced catch and

diminishing yields for local fisheries in areas where

the fish exodus, directly impacting the livelihoods

and incomes of fishers and fishing communities that

have historically relied on those stocks (Washington

Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2021). The

downstream effects ripple through local economies as

well, with decreased fishing revenues translating to

reduced economic activity and job losses in industries

supported by commercial fishing. Simultaneously, as

fish stocks migrate to new regions, they can disrupt

established seafood supply chains by creating product

availability shortages in the areas they depart and

surplus gluts in the regions they arrive. This volatility

can lead to price fluctuations that make seafood less

accessible to consumers, while processors,

distributors, and retailers struggle to adapt sourcing,

logistics, and sales to the shifting geographic

distributions of catch.

The fishing industry itself also faces immense

adaptation costs as key stocks relocate or alter their

movements. Fishers may need to invest in new gear

and vessels capable of accessing fish that have moved

into deeper waters or completely different regions

(Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2021).

Longer voyages to reach emerging grounds drive up

fuel expenditures as well. There are also potential

regulatory hurdles to adapt to as catch boundaries and

seasons may need to be renegotiated with new

migrations crossing jurisdictional borders. Making

these capital-intensive operational changes can be

particularly challenging for small-scale fisheries that

The Impact of Climate Change on the Migration Patterns of Fish Populations

often lack resources and struggle to raise funds for

retrofitting their practices. Ultimately, the

downstream impacts on seafood prices, product

availability, market economies, and human

employment are highlighted. Policies and industry

behaviors in the fisheries industry need to change in

response to changing climate realities, or else changes

in fish migration could be extremely disruptive.

4.2 Indirect Economic Impacts

Beyond just economic disruptions, shifts in fish

migration patterns catalyzed by climate change could

have severe ripple effects on food security,

employment, international relations, market

dynamics, and cultural heritage across the globe. In

many developing regions, fish represent a vital source

of protein and essential nutrients for billions of

people. Drastic changes or declines in local fish

stocks due to species redistributions could threaten

food security and public health by increasing the risks

of malnutrition and associated ailments (Washington

Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2021). The

socioeconomic toll would be further compounded by

potential mass job losses in fishing, processing, and

allied sectors that entire coastal communities depend

on. This could necessitate extremely challenging

economic diversification away from fishing

livelihoods that have persisted for generations.

On a geopolitical scale, fish migrations into new

waters could spark international disputes over fishing

rights, regulations, and enforcement as fish

distributions Start to straddle maritime boundaries.

This could strain international relations and trade

dynamics, with some nations needing to import fish

they previously could source domestically. The

global seafood market itself may experience major

disruptions and realignments as the abundance and

availability of high-value species shift to different

regions, upending established supply chains

(Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2021).

Countries that historically dominated as major

exporters could lose substantial market share to

emerging producers better situated to access relocated

fish populations.

Perhaps most profoundly, climate-driven fish

redistributions represent an existential threat to the

cultural identities and practices of coastal

communities that have been deeply intertwined with

local marine species for centuries or millennia. As

functionally irreplaceable fish depart, it could lead to

the irreversible decay of cultural traditions, folk

knowledge, and spiritual connections that represent

an invaluable intangible heritage. The vast global

ripple effects underscore how disruptive and

destabilizing marina species migrations could

become across humanitarian, economic, political, and

social dimensions without concerted mitigation and

adaptation efforts.

4.3 Conservation Efforts

Given the multitude of threats posed by climate

change to marine environments and fisheries, a

diverse array of management tools and conservation

efforts are being leveraged in an attempt to bolster

ecological resilience. There has been an increasing

shift towards ecosystem-based management (EBM)

approaches that consider the entire ecosystem,

including human communities when devising

strategies to maintain marine areas in a healthy,

productive, and resilient state (Lam et al., 2016). A

centrepiece of many EBM plans is the establishment

and expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs)

aimed at conserving biodiversity hotspots, sheltering

critical habitats, and ensuring sustainable fish stocks-

with some MPAs designed specifically to protect

areas that could serve as climate refugees.

More traditional regulatory measures like catch

quotas, size limits, and seasonal closures remain vital

for preventing overfishing of vulnerable species and

allowing depleted populations to recover (Lam et al.,

2016). Habitat restoration projects focused on

rebuilding areas like coral reefs, mangroves, and

seagrass beds that provide essential nursery habitats

during key fish life stages are also underway in many

regions. As the impacts of climate change intensify,

fishery managers are beginning to incorporate

environmental data into adaptive stock assessments

and management plans to improve the sustainability

of wild-capture fisheries.

These on-the-ground initiatives are supported by

significant investments into scientific research and

monitoring programs aimed at better understanding

the dynamic effects of climate change. This includes

tracking changes in fish distributions, abundances,

productivity, and other indicators across species to

guide management interventions. Complementary

efforts are also being made to reduce other

compounding stressors like pollution, habitat

destruction, and invasive species that can further

undermine the resilience of ecosystems facing

climate impacts.

On a global governance scale, international

frameworks like the United Nations Convention on

the Law of the Sea and the Sustainable Development

Goals are guiding comprehensive, cooperative

approaches to marine conservation and sustainable

ICREE 2024 - International Conference on Renewable Energy and Ecosystem

use of ocean resources in the era of climate change.

Country-level progress is being made as well by

engaging local communities in sustainable fishing

practices, developing alternative livelihoods to

reduce extractive pressures, and implementing robust

climate mitigation policies to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions causing arctic warming and ocean

acidification.

While pitched as an all-hands-on-deck effort

utilizing every available tool, the success of these

disparate management approaches and conservation

initiatives in stemming climate change's toll on

marine ecosystems and fisheries remains uncertain.

What is clear is that failing to take comprehensive

action could have catastrophic and irreversible

consequences for the biodiversity, food security, and

socioeconomic stability of coastal nations around the

globe.

5 CASE STUDY-THE IMPACT OF

CLIMATE CHANGE ON

SALMON POPULATIONS IN

WASHINGTON STATE

Salmon species in Washington State are confronting

a severe environmental crisis that has been greatly

exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. Over

just the past six decades, average annual air

temperatures in the state have risen by 1.77℉ from

1960 to 2020 (Adriaan et al., 2009). This may seem

like a relatively small increase, but it is already

having profound ripple effects across the ecosystems

that salmon depend on for their survival. With

atmospheric CO₂ levels continuing to rise, climate

models project this warming trend will likely

accelerate in the coming decades, putting further

strain on salmon habitats and life cycles.

One of the most visible manifestations of this

warming has been the rapid melting of glaciers across

the Pacific Northwest region. Glaciers act as frozen

reservoirs that are critically important for

replenishing streams with cold meltwater during the

summer months when juvenile salmon are going

through key developmental stages. However, as

temperatures rise, these glaciers are disappearing at

an alarming rate. Compounding this loss, mountain

snowpacks that typically build up over the winter

months and provide an additional source of runoff in

the spring and summer are also diminishing as more

precipitation falls as rain instead of snow due to the

increases in freezing levels.

The data reflects the severity of this problem-from

1955 to 2016, there was a 21% decrease in the amount

of water released from snowmelt across the western

United States (Adriaan et al., 2009). With lower

spring/summer stream flows, river temperatures are

becoming perilously warm for the cold-water-

adapted salmon. Readings frequently exceed 64℉,

high enough to cause severe thermal stress. If

temperatures surpass 70℉, the conditions can turn

lethally warm, especially for more sensitive species

and life stages like eggs and juvenile fish.

The warmer, lower flows are also exacerbated by

increased water demands to support agriculture

through irrigated crops and urban population centers.

This creates a compounding effect as river water is

diverted away from natural habitats, further reducing

flows during the summer months when salmon need

it most. Development of floodplains and marine

environments have also degraded and eliminated

some key rearing habitats while limiting the natural

ability of river systems to temporarily store and

slowly release floodwaters during high flow periods.

Beyond just creating stressful low-flow

conditions, the shifts in the timing and volume of

water moving through these systems disrupt the

synchronized life cycles that salmon have evolved

over millennia. More frequent and intense flooding

can scour away gravel beds where salmon lay their

eggs (redds). It can also displace juvenile fish

prematurely into saltwater environments before they

have been able to prepare physiologically, leading to

high mortality. At the same time, unusually low water

levels can strand fish in side channels and residual

pools, cutting off their migration corridors.

Looking ahead, climate models suggest the

situation will continue to deteriorate for salmon.

Projections for Washington indicate spring snowpack

levels may plummet by 56-70% by the 2080s

compared to late 20th-century baselines. This would

translate to even lower summer flows, higher water

temperatures, and increasingly inhospitable

conditions for salmon at key life stages in freshwater

habitats.

Additionally, rising ocean surface temperatures

have led to nutrient-poor, low-oxygen water

conditions in areas like the coastal zones off

Washington where juvenile salmon go to feed and

mature. These degraded marine conditions favor

subtropical zooplankton species that provide

inadequate nutrition for growing salmon compared to

their typical diet in a healthy ocean ecosystem.

Although salmon is a remarkably resilient species

that has adapted to vast environmental changes across

their evolutionary history spanning thousands of

The Impact of Climate Change on the Migration Patterns of Fish Populations

years, the pace and multitude of impacts caused by

modern climate change are testing the limits of their

adaptive capacity. With habitats degrading quickly

due to warming waters, loss of glacier and snowpack

reserves, ocean acidification, and other climactic

stressors, the genetic diversity and phenotypic

plasticity of salmon populations are being outpaced.

This has put the future viability of many distinct

salmon runs and species at high risk in Washington

State.

To confront this looming crisis, an aggressive

multi-pronged strategy focused on both mitigating

climate change drivers and adapting habitats will be

required to sustain and recover these iconic salmon

populations. Vital conservation measures include

legal protections to preserve remaining high-quality

habitats, restoration of degraded ecosystems like river

floodplains, and strategic water management to

ensure adequate flows during summer months.

However, these efforts will be fighting an uphill battle

against climate change without concerted global

action to reduce carbon emissions and curb further

atmospheric warming and ocean acidification.

Continued robust scientific monitoring and

research will be essential for understanding the

rapidly evolving impacts and developing potential

interventions. However, lasting solutions will

ultimately depend on legislative actions centered on

environmental policy reforms and promoting

renewable energy transitions to reduce greenhouse

gas pollution. Community engagement and

behavioral changes by individuals, corporations, and

governments alike will also be imperative for driving

the collective action needed to create a resilient

environment in which critically endangered salmon

populations can recover and thrive. The future of

these fish hangs in the balance, with their persistence

or extinction hinging on society's willingness to

confront the climate change crisis head-on through

aggressive mitigation and adaptation strategies in the

decades ahead.

6 CONCLUSION

In conclusion, climate change is disrupting fish

migration patterns around the world in profound

ways, with far-reaching ecological, economic, social

and cultural consequences. As waters warm, many

fish species are being forced to abandon their

traditional grounds and timing in search of suitable

temperature ranges, upending cycles and movements

calibrated by evolution over millennia. This

breakdown in synchronicity between environmental

cues and migration is derailing the organized

progression of critical life stages like spawning and

juvenile development. The impacts ripple across

entire aquatic ecosystems as the redistributions of key

species reshuffle food webs and nutrient flows in

ways that can diminish overall productivity and

biodiversity. For human communities, these shifts

translate to reduced yields in long-established

fisheries, supply chain disruptions, job losses, risks to

food security, and the potential erosion of cultural

identities deeply intertwined with marine species. On

a geopolitical scale, disputes may emerge overfishing

rights as stocks migrate across maritime boundaries.

Tackling such a complex crisis requires an equally

multifaceted response drawing from the full arsenal

of conservation and management tools. This includes

embracing ecosystem-based approaches that

holistically account for human and ecological needs,

establishing climate-resilient protected areas,

dynamically adjusting fishing regulations and quotas

based on the best available science, investing in

habitat restoration, and internationally cooperating on

sustainable resource use. At the same time, the root

causes of climate change must be confronted head-on

through aggressive efforts to transition global energy

systems away from greenhouse gas emissions and

toward renewable sources to curb further warming

and ocean changes. Like so many other

environmental issues, the impacts on fish migrations

exemplify how climate change is an all-

encompassing threat multiplier that cannot be solved

through isolated, reactionary policies. Only a

paradigm shift in how humanity treats the planet can

safeguard the future viability of precious natural

phenomena like cyclical animal migrations that have

occurred long before human civilization emerged.

Preserving these iconic movements that are

intertwined with the delicate balance of marine

ecosystems and the cultural fabric of coastal societies

must be prioritized. While complex, solutions rooted

in science and responsive governance are possible if

the political will and public support can be mustered.

The consequences of complacency, however, could

be as profound as the unravelling of a fundamental

biological tapestry eons in the making. Sustaining

fish migrations is not just about ensuring stable food

sources or economic revenues, but about maintaining

humanity's humble connection to the enduring

rhythms of life on this planet we all call home.

ICREE 2024 - International Conference on Renewable Energy and Ecosystem

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The Impact of Climate Change on the Migration Patterns of Fish Populations