Directions for Stimulating the Development of the Walnut Production

System

Barno Raxmonova, Bahodirjon Nosirov, Odiljon Shermatov, Hakimbek Baratov

and Sardorbek Tojiddinov

Andijan Institute of Agriculture and Agrotechnologies, Uzbekistan

Keywords: Development, Walnut, Industry, Sustainable.

Abstract: In the article, analyzes were made on the prospective development of the walnut industry in Uzbekistan. It is

advisable to implement the following arrangements for the sustainable development of the walnut industry: -

strengthening the use of intensive technologies in the production of walnuts in the republic and increasing its

efficiency; -establishment of a quality seedling breeding system and further development of high-yielding

varieties; -establishment of the cultivation of walnut varieties suitable for the climate of the regions and

development of the system of providing qualified personnel and retraining; -introduction of intensive and

digital technologies in walnut production and economic efficiency improvement; -to ensure quality delivery

of products to final consumers by gradually eliminating problems in walnut production and sale and storage

system.

1 INTRODUCTION

In the context of global climate change, the world's

leading research centers and institutions are

conducting few scientific research on the production

and processing of walnuts. In particular, such areas of

research as the selection and breeding of high-

yielding varieties of walnuts following the natural and

climatic conditions of the regions of Uzbekistan, the

introduction of modern marketing methods into the

sales system of walnuts and walnut products, the

development of innovative activities in the field,

improving the efficiency of research, obtaining high-

quality products from seedlings of breeding varieties

grown industrially, the organization of intensive

production of walnuts and the creation of sites for

technical and technological parameters of production

(Ministry of Health of Uzbekistan, 2020).

The climatic conditions of the mountainous

regions of Uzbekistan are relatively favorable for the

growth and high yield of seedlings of trees such as

walnuts, almonds, and pistachios. Therefore, large-

scale structural reforms have been implemented

aimed at the sustainable development of the network

of walnut production and processing of this product.

However in the development of the walnut industry,

systemic effective market mechanisms have not been

created, and the insufficiency of the scientific

approach leads to the fact that the available

opportunities of the industry are not fully used

(Sohda, T., et al. 1982).

2 LITERATURE REVIEW

The details, economic effectiveness, and

organizational and economic features of walnut

production in Uzbekistan have not been thoroughly

examined as a research topic, despite the fact that

numerous studies have been conducted in this area. A

relatively recent development, the measures of the

economic efficiency of walnut production under

Uzbekistani conditions have only been largely

examined in the composition of many fruiting studies.

Additionally, the demand for walnuts and walnut-

derived goods is rising during the intensive

development phase, when new organizational and

economic processes are implemented in the context

of sustainable agricultural development (Yoshioka,

T., et al. 1989).

In addition, the expansion of the market of fruit

and vegetable products in the domestic and foreign

markets is putting fundamentally new tasks in the

field of walnuts to further develop the system of

production, sale, and processing of walnuts and other

738

Raxmonova, B., Nosirov, B., Shermatov, O., Baratov, H. and Tojiddinov, S.

Directions for Stimulating the Development of the Walnut Production System.

DOI: 10.5220/0013453000004654

In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Humanities Education, Law, and Social Science (ICHELS 2024), pages 738-743

ISBN: 978-989-758-752-8

Table 1: The volume of walnut production in the regions of Uzbekistan (tons)

Regions 2017 y. 2018 y. 2019 y. 2020 y. 2021 y.

2021 compared

to 2017, %

Uzbekistany

65463 59758 67733 79,1 79300 121,1

Republic of Karakalpakstany

10 13 16 13 24 240,0

Andijany

121646 211466 22185 28392 26232 215,7

Bukharay

454 19096 2483 2545 2221 489,2

Jizzakhy

4436 68616 72886 73196 86446 194,96

Kashkadaryay

38526 23066 1479 1853 1185 30,8

Navoiy

1265 21756 3358 2720 25606 202,4

Namangany

6311 48476 51336 6802 6836 108,3

Samarkandy

18650 6903 11757 15670 15350 82,3

Surkhandaryay

12537 6605 5289 5823 5797 46,2

Syr Daryay

1148 794 1226 800 899 78,3

Tashkenty

33386 3910 5398 6377 6529 195,6

Ferganay

1260 2284 2121 2940 3023 239,9

Khorezmy

38 5 - - - -

walnut products. In this regard, the development of

scientific recommendations and practical proposals

aimed at improving the organizational and economic

basis of walnut production is of urgent importance

(Cantello, B. C. C., et al. 1994; Oi, S., et al. 2016;

Kawale, L., et al. 2020; Zheng, Y., et al. 2023;

Hernandez, H., & Shivraj, L. 2020).

3 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

The walnut market is a relatively new market for

Uzbekistan, which is now in its formative stages. The

importance of this market is increasing for the

following reasons. First of all, this is a resource base

for confectionery and bakery products. For companies

in this area, it is much cheaper to buy walnuts not in

the form of raw materials, but in the form prepared

according to international standards (roasted, ground,

and other). Secondly, it is important the sell of

packaged walnuts in the retail system. Marketing

research conducted by the authors showed that the

population's demand for walnuts is growing rapidly.

Thirdly, the export of these roasted and ground

walnuts is important. From this, the study analyzed the

current situation, based on proposals for the

organization of marketing services in the system and

the organization of an effective sales system in the

domestic and foreign markets in case of problems.

As a result of comprehensive reforms aimed at

stimulating and further improving the efficiency of

use of fallow lands in the foothill regions of

Uzbekistan, increasing competitive volumes of walnut

production in the domestic and foreign markets,

creating modern walnut plantations through the wide

involvement of foreign investments, as well as the

widespread introduction of scientifically based

methods and intensive technologies for growing

walnuts, walnut production volumes in the regions are

increasing (Table 1).

The analysis indicates that if the gross harvest of

walnuts in Uzbekistan increased by 21.1 percent in

2021 compared to 2017, this figure increased by 2.4

times in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, 2.1 times in

Andijan, 4 times in Bukhara, 9 times in Jizzakh, 1.94

times in Navoi, 1.9 times in Tashkent, 1.8 times in

Namangan, and 2.39 times in Fergana. Conversely,

the amount of walnuts produced fell by 30.8% in the

Kashkadarya region, 82.3% in Samarkand, and 46.2%

in Surkhandarya.

The destruction of walnut plantations in mountain

and sub-mountain regions, the rise of different

illnesses, issues with variety selection, and the region's

water shortage in 2021 are the primary causes of this.

If we compare the Andijan region's and the

Republic's walnut production indicators, we can see

that the Andijan region grew 7022 tons of walnuts in

2021, 12.1 times less than the Republican indicator.

However, this indicator has increased 1.6% since

2017. Every year, there is an upward tendency in the

amount of walnuts produced per person. On the other

hand, if the average yearly consumption of walnuts

per person is 8 kg according to medical norms, then

Uzbekistan's consumption is 2.1 times lower in 2021,

or 4.5 times lower.

Throughout the study, the opinions of the

participants were examined using a questionnaire in

order to determine and assess the issues pertaining to

walnuts in the present day and to formulate

recommendations for their eradication (Fig. 1).

Directions for Stimulating the Development of the Walnut Production System

739

Figure 1: Problems related to walnut production (share in % to total respondents).

According to the results of the survey, 40% of the

respondents said that the disease and pest control

system has not been established enough, 28% in the

processing, sale and storage system, 35% in the

cultivation of high-yielding varieties and the

development of the seedling system, 42% in the

supply of fertilizers does not meet the demand, 37%

the problem of technical service, 25 percent lack of

qualified specialists in the field and 27 percent the lack

of consulting centers for the providing of agro-

services identified as the main problems and

shortcomings related walnut today.

It is known that several factors directly affect the

formation of walnut prices in the markets. In

particular, the number of walnut producers, the

volume of production, their location, the form of

property, as well as the income of the population,

fluctuations in the price of walnuts, changes in supply

and demand, and market conjuncture are factors that

have a significant influence on the development of this

industry.

Currently, there are no specialized institutions in

Uzbekistan that carry out analytical and research work

on the solutions of marketing problems of walnut

producers. In practice, the companies themselves

analyze the ways of organizing their activities in the

markets using the simplest marketing methods and

form conclusions. Although the functions of

government agencies include the task of conducting

marketing research, in practice they do not pay enough

attention to this issue.

The analysis of the channels of sale of walnuts

grown in Andijan region shows that most of the

walnuts grown in total are sold in farmers' markets,

supermarkets or stores, various fairs, mobile shops,

and directly in farm fields.

The main problem is the presence of "informal

intermediaries" between producers and buyers in the

formation of walnut prices in the markets of the

researched areas, which creates the base for the price

of walnuts to increase by 25-30 percent on average at

each stage.

In general, the use of modern marketing methods

in the system of selling walnuts and walnut products,

product processing, and delivery of quality and

organic products to the consumer are the main

conditions for today's sustainable development.

Even when the minimum level of yield and

product price are set at 25–30% below retail prices, the

income from production per hectare is 42,1–51,4

million UZS in the traditional way and 86,9–103,5

million UZS in the intensive way, according to a

comparative analysis of the organization of walnut

plantations on one hectare in various ways,

maintenance costs and income, and efficiency

indicators. Production profitability was 150.4 and

329.5 percent, respectively (Table 2).

As a result, it is evident that the intensive strategy

results in prices that are eight to nine times more than

those of starting a one-hectare walnut plantation.

Generally speaking, the following factors demonstrate

the effectiveness of intense walnut production:

- a 3–4 times increase in the number of seedlings

planted intensively on one hectare of land; - a high

degree of labor automation in product production; - a

high degree of water and mineral fertilizer efficiency

through intensive drip irrigation; - ease of control and

high efficiency against diseases and pests; - the high

likelihood of rapid fruiting of intensively established

plantations and the application of suitable

agrotechnical measures;

- the ease of harvesting the product and performing

other agrotechnical tasks; - the introduction of highly

resource-saving technologies, etc., will fully offset the

costs associated with the establishment of a plantation

in an intensive manner within three to four years after

ICHELS 2024 - The International Conference on Humanities Education, Law, and Social Science

740

Table 2: The economic efficiency of growing walnuts in different ways on an acre of land (in 2021 prices)

Indicators unit

traditional way, by varieties

intensive way, by

varieties

Ideal Chandle

Costs of establishing a walnut plantation on

1 hectare of land

thousands

UZS

13164 14926 133657 136755

Annual maintenance

costs of 1 hectare of

walnut plantation (when

fully harvested)

Total

thousands

UZS

14577 15491 19446 22263

Salar

5559 5915 7414 7919

Material and other

costs

9018 9576 12032 14344

Periods of starts the

main harvest of walnut

plantations

ha 5,3 8,4 10,5 16,4

7 yea

ha 10,1 15,3 22,2 32,1

10-15 yea

ha 25 31,2 54,4 65,5

On average, 1 hectare

of walnut plantation

(when in full harvest)

income

thousands

UZS

36500 45552 79424 95630

profit

thousands

UZS

21923 30061 59978 73367

Rentability % 150,4 194,1 308,4 329,5

the plantation is fully harvested. The features of

market interactions are not widely incorporated,

according to a review of the organizational processes

that currently govern the growth of the walnut

business. We propose the following economic

stimulation avenues to boost the walnut industry's

efficiency (Table 3).

By analyzing the levels of interaction of the

factors that directly affect walnut production in the

sub-sectors of agriculture, in particular, walnut

production, by evaluating the impact of factors on the

volume of walnut production in the regions, and

based on this, it is possible to draw a conclusion on

the main directions and forecast parameters of the

development of walnut production.

Using the "Data analysis" package in Microsoft

Excel, a model of the influence of such factors as the

area planted with walnuts, the amount of walnut

processing, the total amount of fertilizers used, the

average annual temperature, and the average annual

precipitation on the volume of walnut yield was

developed (Table 4).

From the results of the model, it was found that

the factors reflected in the model have a strong

relationship with the gross yield of walnuts. A

multifactor regression model equation was created:

Y = -3297,8 + 3,52*β

+ 2,496* β

+ 1,262*

+ 13,081* β

+ 8,631* β

(1)

Where,

Y– gross yield of walnuts;

– field planted with walnuts;

– volume of walnut processing;

– total spent fertilizer;

– annual average temperature;

– average annual precipitation.

Now, if we analyze the indicators of walnut

production in Andijan region by farm categories, in

2022, the share of dekhkan farms (small households)

is 4500 tons (59.7%), the share of farms is 2845 tons

(37.7%), and the share of other producers is 197 tons

(2.6%) (Figures 4, 5).

The forecast of changes in the volume of

production of peanuts was calculated using a linear

function in the cross-section of farmers and dekhkan

farms and other producers. According to this, by

2030, 18,651.5 tons of walnuts will be produced in

the region. These products in the section of

categories, constitutes in particular, in dekhkan farms

13176.1 tons (70.7%), in farms 5027.8 tons (26.9%)

and in other producers 447.6 tons (2.4%)

In general, evaluation of the impact levels and

change trends of the main factors affecting the

volume of walnut production in the walnut industry

using multi-factor regression, linear trend models

over time, drawing conclusions, preparing proposals

based on forecast indicators will lead to a positive

result..

Directions for Stimulating the Development of the Walnut Production System

741

Table 3: Directions of state stimulation of the development of the intensive walnut production system

Directions of

stimulation

Arrangements Financial source

State financial

support to suppliers of

quality seedlings

- creation of a system of cultivation of exportable walnut seedlings

and its certification;

- introducing the practice of subsidizing entrepreneurs who create

plantations based on the planting of fertile walnut seedlings. In this case,

it is recommended to introduce a mechanism to cover 15% of costs of

seedlin

dama

e from the second

ear of

lantin

each cro

Commercial

banks, private

investors, various

funds

Providing services

to entrepreneurs who

organize walnut farms

and creating an

information supply

system.

- creation and full operation of a database, platform, which contains

information on producers and exporters of walnuts and walnut products;

- organization of consulting services that conduct marketing research

on the study of foreign markets and publish their materials on special

websites and forums.

Ministry of

Investments and

Foreign Trade,

Loans and Grants

of Foreign

Financial

Institutions

Training, upgrading

and retraining of

personnel for the walnut

industry

- Ensuring the visit of agronomists, marketers, farmers from advanced

countries in walnut production and organizing training sessions;

- carrying out internships of personnel engaged in walnut growing,

engaged in the science of the sphere in foreign countries with developed

walnut growing industries.

International

grants, funds

from business

entities, funds

from state funds

Development of

cooperative relations in

the walnut industry

- development of product growing and processing cooperatives with

the participation of farmers and households engaged in walnut

production;

- promotion of exports based on the introduction of export subsidies

for walnut exporters in the first 2 years of their activity. In this case, it

should be determined that 5% of the export earnings of the subsidy

reci

ients should be directed to the develo

ment of ex

ort lo

istics.

Funds from

the state budget,

entrepreneurs

from their own

funds

Table 4: The model of relationship between walnut gross yield and selected factors (in the case of Andijan region)

Dependent outcome variable and

independent variables (factors)

Coefficient t- statistics Probability

– field planted with walnuts, ha 3,520 4,252 0,0053

– volume of walnut processing, tons 2,496 2,463 0,0489

– total spent fertilizer, tons 1,262 2,078 0,0829

– annual average temperature, °C 13,081 0,043 0,9668

– average annual precipitation, mm 8,6307 2,929 0,0263

_cons -3297,8 -0,823 0,442

R²- coefficient of determination 0,9881

Corrected R-squared 0,9782

Standard error of the regression 352,86

Probability (F - statistics) 0,0000108

ICHELS 2024 - The International Conference on Humanities Education, Law, and Social Science

742

Figure 4: Forecast of walnut production in Andijan region by producer groups until 2030.

Figure 5: Forecast of walnut production in Andijan region until 2030.

4 CONCLUSION

In conclusion, many factors influence the change in

the volume of walnut production in the Andijan

region. Taking into account the effects and direct

relationship of several factors such as soil and climate

conditions of the Andijan region, average annual

precipitation, average annual temperature, selection

of high-yielding varieties of walnuts, the area planted

with walnuts, the total amount of mineral fertilizers

used, the volume of walnut processing. in this case, it

will be possible to make a reasonable analysis of the

change in the gross yield of walnuts and to determine

the forecast values for the future.

It is advisable to implement the following

arrangements for the sustainable development of the

walnut industry: - strengthening the use of intensive

technologies in the production of walnuts and

increasing its efficiency; -establishment of a quality

seedling breeding system and further development of

high-yielding varieties; -establishment of the

cultivation of walnut varieties suitable for the climate

of the regions and development of the system of

providing qualified personnel and retraining; -

introduction of intensive and digital technologies in

walnut production and economic efficiency

improvement; -to ensure quality delivery of products

to final consumers by gradually eliminating problems

in walnut production and sale and storage system.

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Hernandez, H., & Shivraj, L. (2020). Vol. 5, no. February,

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Kawale, L., et al. (2020). Int. J Pharm. Sci. Drug Res.,

12(6), 597–605.

Ministry of Health of Uzbekistan. (2020). Data and

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Sohda, T., et al. (1982). Chem. Pharm. Bull., 30(10), 3563–

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