Portfolio Design and Optimization Based on the CAPM Model
Boxiong Xing
International Business School, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China
Keywords: Portfolio Optimization, Asset Allocation, Risk Management, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM),
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR).
Abstract: In the evolving landscape of global financial markets, traditional portfolio management approaches face
challenges due to the rise of new asset classes and increasingly complex investment environments. This study
examines the optimization of portfolio returns and risks by integrating traditional assets with emerging ones.
This paper explores the optimization of portfolio returns and risks by combining traditional and emerging
assets. The research uses data from assets (e.g., Apple, crude oil, Bitcoin, and SPY options), employing
models including CAPM, the mean-variance model, and CVaR to determine the most efficient asset allocation.
The results reveal that a portfolio consisting of 50% Apple, 10% crude oil, 30% SPY, and 10% Bitcoin
achieves an expected annualized return of 8.32% with an annualized volatility of 8.46%. This allocation
achieves a strong balance between risk and return, offering a solid foundation for optimizing portfolio
strategies. This research highlights the significance of strategic asset allocation and sophisticated risk
management, offering key insights for investors aiming for stable, long-term growth. Future research could
further improve portfolio performance by incorporating real-time data and machine learning models, allowing
for more adaptive and responsive investment strategies in the face of market uncertainties.
1 INTRODUCTION
Investors in the world's financial markets with a little
bit of investment philosophy put their core focus on
the asset allocation and portfolio management part of
the equation (Fama & French, 2004; Jagannathan &
McGrattan, 1995). Traditional theories of financial
markets and traditional investment assets such as
stocks have always been the mainstay of the
investment market. Recent developments in the world
have brought with them a diversification of financial
instruments and ever closer international market
relations. Modern asset portfolio theory (MPT) and
capital asset pricing models have also begun to be
gradually applied, but they have encountered certain
limitations in dealing with the emergence of new
asset classes and the complexity of the contemporary
market environment (Markowitz, 1991). More
recently, the growth of new asset classes, such as
cryptocurrencies and futures, and their inclusion in
investment portfolios have further raised questions
about the applicability of these traditional financial
theories. MPT offers a theoretical framework for
asset allocation, primarily through mean-variance
optimization. However, this theory hinges on the
assumptions of normally distributed asset returns and
a stable covariance matrix, which may not hold true
in markets characterized by non-linearity and extreme
volatility. To address these shortcomings, the CAPM
model was introduced, which evaluates the
systematic risk and anticipated return of individual
assets. Nevertheless, as market complexity escalates,
particularly with the incorporation of new assets like
cryptocurrencies and futures, traditional models like
CAPM are increasingly challenged by issues such as
non-linear data and the need for advanced risk
management strategies.
In response to these challenges, researchers have
developed several enhanced models and approaches,
including the CVaR model and genetic algorithms.
These innovations seek to address the shortcomings
of traditional CAPM. For example, the CVaR model
provides a more comprehensive risk management
strategy by considering tail risks in extreme market
conditions, while genetic algorithms excel in
handling complex, non-linear optimization
challenges.
The objective of this research is to investigate and
assess how to optimize portfolio returns and risks by
integrating various models within portfolios that
Xing, B.
Portfolio Design and Optimization Based on the CAPM Model.
DOI: 10.5220/0013268900004568
In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on E-commerce and Artificial Intelligence (ECAI 2024), pages 469-475
ISBN: 978-989-758-726-9
Copyright © 2025 by Paper published under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
469
combine both traditional and emerging assets. With
the rise of new assets (e.g., cryptocurrencies),
traditional portfolio theory can no longer fully meet
the needs of modern investors. Thus, by incorporating
advanced tools such as the CAPM, the mean-variance
model, and the CVaR model, this study aims to offer
new insights and approaches for portfolio
optimization both in theory and practice.
The study begins with a comprehensive literature
review, examining research on portfolios containing
both traditional and emerging assets, analysing their
theoretical underpinnings and practical limitations.
Following this, the data sources and methodologies
employed are detailed, including the specific
application and computational processes of each
model. The study then proceeds to an empirical
analysis to evaluate the performance of these models
in portfolio optimization, discussing their validity and
any limitations encountered. The findings are
ultimately summarized, with recommendations and
directions for future research provided.
2 DATA AND METHOD
The data sources for this study cover a number of
important financial markets and trading platforms,
and the time span for data selection is from August 1,
2019 to August 1, 2024, a total of five years. The data
are presented on a weekly basis to ensure data
diversity and accuracy. Specifically:, for legacy asset
Apple Inc (APPL) Stock Data: daily closing prices,
trading volume, and other relevant data for Apple Inc
stock are obtained through Yahoo Finance. A five-
year time horizon provides ample historical data for
yield and volatility analysis. For WTI Crude Oil
Futures Data. The daily price data from CME Group.
WTI crude oil futures, as the most critical energy
commodity globally, are utilized to evaluate how
fluctuations in the energy market influence
investment portfolios. For emerging asset, Bitcoin
(BTC) Data used daily closing price and volume data
for Bitcoin via CoinMarketCap. A recent five-year
time horizon was chosen to reflect the long-term
trends and volatility of the Bitcoin market. SPY
Options data collected from Yahoo Finance, covering
a variety of strike price and expiration date data for
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) options. This data is used for
risk management and yield optimization. This data
will be used to construct a diversified portfolio
containing both traditional and emerging assets. The
underlying assets are selected based on their market
impact, liquidity, and risk-return characteristics. By
introducing these assets, the study can analyze the
synergies between different asset classes and their
impact on overall portfolio risk and return.
When conducting portfolio optimization, the
selection of the objective function is vital, as it
significantly influences risk-reward trade-offs the
optimization process. The study uses the following
objective functions to evaluate and optimize the
portfolio:
Maximize Sharpe ratio. The objective of this
study is to optimize the Sharpe ratio in order to
identify the portfolio with the highest return for
a given level of risk. The Sharpe ratio is a risk-
adjusted return measure that compares an asset's
excess return to its volatility.
Minimizing Risk (Variance). Risk minimization
is one of the core objectives of modern portfolio
theory. This study will create a low-risk
portfolio by focusing on minimizing the
portfolio's variance. This method is particularly
well-suited for conservative investors, aiming to
mitigate the effects of asset price fluctuations on
the portfolio.
Minimizing Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR).
CVaR is an important metric used to assess the
maximum loss under extreme market conditions.
By minimizing CVaR, this study will construct
portfolios that are less risky under extreme
market conditions, which is especially
important for portfolios that contain highly
volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
Maximize Return (Expected Return). In some
cases, investors may be more concerned with
the expected return of a portfolio. By
maximizing expected returns, this study will
evaluate the performance of high-yield
portfolios in different market environments for
aggressive investment strategies.
These objective functions will be applied in
different models and methods, and optimization
analysis will be performed by tools such as CAPM,
mean-variance model and CVaR model. Through
these optimization methods, this study will explore
the optimal portfolio construction strategies and their
effects under different investment objectives.
In analyzing asset returns, this study uses the
symbols and definitions displayed in Table 1. The
specific definitions and units of these symbols are
listed in Table 1 for easy understanding and use.
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470
Table 1: Symbol description.
Notation Meanin
g
𝑖 Asset
𝐸
𝑅
Expected rate of return on asset 𝑖
𝑅
Risk free rate
𝛽
𝛽 coefficient for asset 𝑖
𝐸
𝑅
Expected return on the market portfol
i
𝑅
Rate of return on assets
𝑅
Market rate of return
𝑃
Closing price of the index in week 𝑡
𝑉𝑎𝑟
𝑅

Variance of market returns
In this study, data were collected for four assets:
shares of Apple Inc (APPL), Crude Oil WTI Futures,
S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and Bitcoin. Please refer to
Appendix 1 for the specific data. In order to guarantee
the accuracy of the data and the uniformity of the
analysis, the following preprocessing steps were
undertaken. First, the raw data was imported from
various data sources, and relevant information such
as Time (Date), Close and Volume were extracted,
and other irrelevant columns were removed. For each
asset data, the column names were standardized as
Date, Close and Volume to facilitate subsequent data
integration. The datasets for each asset were merged
(outer join) by date (Date). During the merging
process, it was ensured that all the data had the same
time range and were aligned by Date. The resulting
integrated data frame contains the closing price and
trading volume for each asset on the same date. A
small number of missing values appear in the merged
data frame due to possible differences in trading times
across assets. To fill in these missing values, a
stepwise interpolation method is used. The missing
data are first filled using the forward fill (pad) method,
followed by applying the backfill method to the
portions where missing values still exist, ensuring
data integrity. To be able to reasonably compare the
performance of different assets, the closing prices of
each asset are normalized using the Min-Max
normalization method. The standardized data
converts the closing prices of each asset into the range
of [0, 1] so that they can be compared and analyzed
on the same scale. The above preprocessing steps
result in a complete and standardized dataset that can
support subsequent analysis and research. Please refer
to Appendix 2 for details.
For model assumption, it is assumed that the
market operates efficiently, with all available
information already incorporated into asset prices, so
that there is no systematic information advantage.
Assets are priced rationally, and investors cannot
obtain excess returns through information asymmetry.
The study assumes that market conditions are
relatively stable over the study period, with no major
structural changes or sudden systemic risks. This
implies that historical data is effective in predicting
future market behavior and that the risk and return
characteristics of assets remain constant over the
study period. If the asset's returns are normally
distributed, the mean-variance optimization method
can be applied. While returns may occasionally
exhibit fat tails or skewness, this model assumes a
normal distribution for simplicity. It is assumed that
the correlation between different assets remains
constant and exhibits minimal variation over time. As
a result, the correlation parameters within the
covariance matrix stay unchanged throughout the
study. The study presumes that no transaction costs or
tax liabilities are involved in portfolio adjustments,
enabling investors to modify their asset allocation
without the influence of transaction fees. The
assumption of rational investor behavior: It is
assumed that all investors are rational and that their
investment decisions are based on an analysis of risk
and return aimed at maximizing their utility function.
This assumption excludes the impact of investor
behavioral biases on market prices and portfolios.
3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3.1 Calculation of Basic Indicators
To comprehensively evaluate the risk and return
features of various assets, one computed and
examined key financial metrics across several assets.
Table 2: Data preprocessing results
Annualized
mean return
Annualized
variance
Annualized
volatilit
y
Sharpe ratio Maximum
retracement
CVaR (95%)
APPL -4.74524 34.32520 5.85877 -0.809939 1.99435 -0.83951
Crude Oil WTI
Futures Historica
13.75573 413.13013 20.32560 0.67676 36.32113 -0.75141
SPY -13.17218 546.78701 23.38347 -0.56331 2.92006 -1.46487
Bitcoin 3.09303 25.18650 5.01861 0.61631 3.30931 -0.54200
Portfolio Design and Optimization Based on the CAPM Model
471
Specifically, the following measures were calculated:
Annualized mean return: Calculates the
annualized average return for each asset,
highlighting its performance over time.
Annualized variance: The risk level is
determined by evaluating the fluctuations in
asset returns.
Annualized volatility: As a measure of risk,
denotes the standard deviation of return
volatility.
Sharpe ratio: Measure the performance of
returns at the same level of risk under the
assumption that the risk-free rate is 0%.
Maximum retracement: An assessment of the
maximum loss experienced by the asset during
a retracement, showing the potential downside
risk to the asset.
CVaR (95%)Assesses potential losses under
extreme market conditions to further
characterize risk.
By computing and evaluating these metrics, one
can gain a broader insight into the performance of
each asset and establish a foundation for future
investment decisions. Specific charts are shown in
Table 2.
3.2 CAPM Modelling
The CAPM is a commonly employed tool in finance
to assess the anticipated return of an individual asset
or portfolio. It calculates the expected return by
incorporating the market risk premium and connects
the asset's systematic risk (beta) to the broader
market's volatility. The fundamental principle of the
CAPM is to assess an asset's exposure to market risk
using the beta coefficient and subsequently calculate
a fair expected return. In this study, the CAPM serve
as a tool to analyze the potential losses that could be
incurred by you in the market of individual assets and
provide basic data for subsequent portfolio
optimization. The CAPM model exhibits different
validity under different market conditions, which is
reflected in the results of this paper (Fama & French,
2004). To construct the CAPM model, this study uses
weekly data for the past five years, including
historical weekly return data for several assets,
including Apple (APPL), WTI crude oil futures, SPY
options, and Bitcoin (BTC). The historical returns of
the market portfolio are represented using the S&P
500 index (S&P 500).
Figure 1: Effective Frontier (Photo/Picture credit:
Original).
A 4.61% risk-free rate was selected, derived from
the current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond,
as shown in Appendix 3. In the CAPM model, the
risk-free rate serves as a reference return,
representing the minimum return investors would
anticipate in the absence of market risk. Fig. 1
illustrates the portfolio's expected return across
various risk levels.
The beta coefficient is utilized to assess an asset's
systematic risk, reflecting its sensitivity to market-
wide fluctuations. To derive the beta coefficient, one
used historical S&P500 data from August 1, 2019, to
August 1, 2024, with the source detailed in Appendix
3. The calculated market volatility was 1.33%, and
the market's expected return was 3.14%:
𝑅




(1)
𝜎



(2)
To assess the systematic risk of different assets
relative to the market, this study calculates the beta
coefficients of APPL, Crude Oil WTI Futures, SPY,
and Bitcoin. The beta coefficients were calculated
using the following formula:
𝛽
Cov




(3)
Table 3 shows the beta coefficients of the four
selected assets. The results show that APPL has a beta
of 1.184, indicating higher volatility than the market,
while Crude Oil WTI Futures has a beta of 0.897,
indicating lower volatility than the market, and SPY
and Bitcoin have a beta of 0.941 and 0.900,
respectively, indicating that the volatility of the two
is closer to the market.
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472
Table 3: The 𝛽 – coefficients.
Asset Beta
APPL 1.184
Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical 0.897
SPY 0.941
Bitcoin 0.9
This study uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM) to calculate the expected rate of return for
each asset.The formulae for the CAPM model are as
follows:
𝐸
𝑅
= 𝑅
+ 𝛽
× 𝐸
𝑅
𝑅
(4)
Here, 𝐸
𝑅
is expected rate of return on asset 𝑖. 𝑅
is risk-free rate.𝛽 -coefficient for asset 𝑖indicates
the systematic risk of the asset relative to the market
𝐸
𝑅
is expected return on the market portfolio
𝐸
𝑅
- 𝑅
is the market risk premium.
In the previous section, one calculated the market
return to be 3.14% and noted that the risk-free rate is
4.61%. Using the following formula, one derived a
risk premium of -1.77%. This indicates that the
expected market return is lower than the risk-free rate,
suggesting that investors believe the risk associated
with holding market assets (e.g., stocks) is not
sufficiently compensated and may even result in a
loss. Using the data above and the beta coefficients,
one applied the CAPM formula to compute the
annualized expected return for each asset. The results
of these calculations are presented in Table 4.
Table 4: Expected returns.
Asset Expected Return (%)
APPL 1.0443%
Crude Oil WTI Futures 1.5523%
SPY 1.4744%
Bitcoin 1.5470%
The analysis of the CAPM model indicates that an
asset's expected return is directly linked to its beta
coefficient, suggesting that a higher beta results in a
higher expected return. This outcome aligns with
financial theory, which posits that investors anticipate
greater returns when taking on higher systematic risk.
In this research, the market risk premium is negative,
indicating the current market's pessimistic outlook on
future returns. Under such market conditions, the
expected return derived from the CAPM model is
lower than the risk-free rate, implying that investors
might favor risk-free assets to mitigate market risk.
By calculating the beta coefficients of each asset,
the study reveals the differences in risk exposure of
different assets to market volatility. For assets with
high beta coefficients (e.g., APPL), they have higher
market risk and therefore higher expected returns.
While for assets with low beta coefficients (e.g.,
Crude Oil WTI Futures), their market risk is relatively
low and therefore the expected return is lower. By
utilizing the CAPM model, this study uncovers both
the expected return and market risk attributes of each
asset, laying a strong foundation for subsequent
portfolio optimization. Future research could
integrate the mean-variance optimization model to
delve deeper into constructing a risk-adjusted optimal
portfolio under prevailing market conditions.
3.3 Mean-variance Optimization Model
To maximize the expected return for a given level of
risk or minimize the risk for a given return target, this
study adopts Mean-Variance Optimization (MVO)
for portfolio optimization. Mean-Variance
Optimization is the core method of modern portfolio
theory, which helps investors construct optimal
portfolios by optimally allocating the weights of
different assets. The core concept of mean-variance
optimization is to maximize expected returns by
reducing the portfolio's variance Diversification
across multiple asset classes is effective in reducing
overall portfolio risk (Goetzmann et al., 2005). In
optimizing portfolios, this study aims to achieve an
optimal trade-off between risk and return by
employing a dual-objective strategy that focuses on
maximizing the Sharpe ratio while minimizing
volatility. However, a strategy based solely on Sharpe
ratio maximization often tends to concentrate on a
few high-return assets, resulting in an under-
diversified portfolio. Therefore, this study further
introduces diversification constraints to ensure that
the portfolio is reasonably allocated among different
assets.
To enhance portfolio diversification, minimum
weight and maximum weight constraints are set for
each asset in the study, i.e., the weight of each asset
in the portfolio should not be less than 10% and not
more than 50%. This constraint aims to prevent the
portfolio from being overly dependent on a single
asset and reduce concentration risk. The mean-
variance model, despite its widespread use, exhibits
limitations in dealing with nonlinear market behavior
(Elton et al., 2007). After optimization, the portfolio
weight allocation after considering the diversification
constraint is as shown in Table 5.
Portfolio Design and Optimization Based on the CAPM Model
473
Table 5: Portfolio weightings 1.
Asset Data
APPL 30%
Crude Oil WTI Futures 50%
SPY 10%
Bitcoin 10%
The optimization results show that under the
mandatory diversification constraint, the portfolio has
an expected return of 0.2385%, a volatility of 3.34%,
and a Sharpe Ratio of -1.399. Despite the low Sharpe
Ratio, the overall volatility is effectively controlled
due to the diversified allocation of the portfolio
among different assets. With the introduction of the
diversification constraint, the portfolio is no longer
concentrated in just a single asset but has a reasonable
allocation across multiple assets. While this
allocation reduces the Sharpe ratio, it improves the
stability of the portfolio and helps to reduce the
impact of extreme market volatility in long-term
investments. The choice of assets has some
limitations at the same time. Bitcoin is a decentralized
asset and can be highly volatile. Cryptocurrencies,
especially Bitcoin, are considered speculative assets
due to their high volatility (Baur et al., 2018).
Meanwhile, commodities such as crude oil are key
variables in investment portfolios due to their
volatility (Cheung & Miu, 2010). It is their
combination that makes this investment more
possible.
3.4 Risk Management Optimization
In portfolio management, an effective allocation of
asset weights is essential to strike a balance between
risk and return. As described by Rockafellar and
Uryasev (2000), CVaR models provide a more
reliable risk management tool under extreme market
conditions. To reduce the downside risk of the
portfolio in a volatile market environment, this study
optimizes the asset weights of four key assets by
incorporating two critical risk measures, Maximum
Drawdown (MDD) and Conditional Value at Risk
(CVaR). This paper analyzes the maximum
drawdown and CVaR data for four assets: Apple Inc.
stock (APPL), Crude Oil WTI Futures, S&P 500 ETF
(SPY), and Bitcoin. The initial weights are set to 30%
for Apple stock, 50% for WTI Crude Oil Futures, 10%
for SPY, and 10% for Bitcoin.
Effective risk management is key in financial
markets (Jorion, 2006). To prevent the portfolio from
being overly concentrated in any single asset and to
maintain a balanced allocation across assets, the study
imposes constraints, setting a minimum weight of 10%
and a maximum weight of 50% for each asset. This is
intended to optimize portfolio diversification while
controlling risk. In this study, an optimization method
based on the SLSQP (Sequential Least Squares
Programming) algorithm is used, with the objective
function being to minimize the weighted sum of the
portfolio's maximum retracement and CVaR. By
adjusting the weights of each asset, the optimal
portfolio allocation is obtained. In the weight
optimization process, the final optimal weight
allocation is given by considering the weight
constraints of at most 50% and at least 10% for each
asset as given in Table 6.
Following the optimization, the portfolio achieves
an annualized expected return of 8.32% and an
annualized volatility of 8.46%. This allocation
balances risk management and returns, enabling the
portfolio to perform more consistently across varying
market conditions. By incorporating weight
constraints in the optimization process, this study not
only achieves effective risk control, but also ensures
portfolio diversity. The optimized portfolio allocation
can strike a good balance between risk and return and
is suitable for investors seeking solid returns. Future
research can further explore the strategy of
dynamically adjusting weights under different market
environments to cope with more complex market
fluctuations.
Table 6: Portfolio weightings 2.
Asset Pro
p
ortion
APPL 50%
Crude Oil WTI Futures 10%
SPY 30%
Bitcoin 10%
3.5 Performance Indicators of the
Portfolio
Besides analyzing individual assets, the portfolio’s
overall performance was assessed using several key
financial indicators, including portfolio return,
Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio. Table 7 presents a
detailed overview of these indicators, offering
insights into the portfolio’s risk and return profile.
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474
Table 7: Overall profile and descriptions.
Metric Value Descri
p
tion
Annualized
Return
8.32% Annualized return of the
optimized
p
ortfolio
Sharpe Ratio -1.399 Risk-adjusted return based
on the
ortfolio volatilit
Calmar Ratio 0.231 Return-to-risk ratio
considering maximum
drawdown.
Annualized
Volatilit
y
8.46% Standard deviation of the
p
ortfolio’s returns.
Maximum
Drawdown
36.32% Maximum observed loss
from a
p
eak to a trou
g
h
CVaR (95%) -1.464 Expected loss in extreme
market conditions
3.6 Limitations and Prospects
The limitations of this study are mainly in several
aspects. First, Due to under dynamic market
conditions, traditional static models may not
adequately reflect actual market volatility (Campbell
& Viceira, 2002). The study operates under the
assumption that market conditions remain relatively
stable and does not thoroughly account for the effects
of dynamic factors like market sentiment and
macroeconomic changes on investment portfolios.
Second, the historical data used may not fully reflect
future market volatility and risk, and thus the results
of the study may be subject to a certain degree of
uncertainty in practical application. Moreover, the
analysis is concentrated on a narrow set of asset
categories, excluding other investment instruments
like bonds and real estate, which could reduce the
overall diversification and risk management of the
portfolio. Future research could further enhance
portfolio performance by introducing real-time data
analytics and machine learning models to adjust
portfolios more dynamically in response to market
changes and uncertainties.
4 CONCLUSIONS
To sum up, the goal of this study is to construct an
optimized portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted
returns. By applying modern portfolio theory,
including mean-variance optimization, Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM), Conditional Value-at-Risk
(CVaR), and Maximum Drawdown Analysis, one
determines the optimal asset allocation: 50% for
Apple, 10% for Crude Oil, 30% for SPY, and 10% for
Bitcoin. The portfolio has an expected annualized
return of 8.32% and annualized volatility of 8.46%,
effectively balancing risk and return. The use of the
CAPM model in asset pricing is widely supported.
While this study provides a solid framework for
portfolio optimization, it is limited by assuming static
market conditions and excluding dynamic factors
such as market sentiment. Modern portfolio theory
plays an important role in asset allocation. Future
research could explore the integration of real-time
data and machine learning models to further improve
portfolio performance. Although there are certain
limitations, the research sheds light on the critical role
of strategic asset distribution and effective risk
management in securing consistent, long-term returns.
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APPENDIX
Appendix 1: Original Data: https://docs.google.com/spread
sheets/d/1W1QmlLgwWWc5PAI4q1RFyHpN2H8M5
f7l/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102167542405241696605
&rtpof=true&sd=true
Appendix 2: Data cleaning: https://docs.google.com/spread
sheets/d/1-RRsvqImCkYFhWrln5OIt3lEj0ubl2cT/
edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102167542405241696605&rt
pof=true&sd=true
Appendix 3: Tresure data: https://ycharts.com/indicators
/10_year_treasury_rate
Portfolio Design and Optimization Based on the CAPM Model
475