Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine:

Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives

Olena H. Denysiuk

and Kateryna Ye. Orlova

Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, 103 Chudnivska Str., Zhytomyr, 10005, Ukraine

Keywords:

War, Ukraine, Economic Impact, Business, Economic Entities, Exchange Rate, Export, Logistics, Migration,

International Support, State Support.

Abstract:

War is a complex social and economic phenomenon which causes tragedy due to irreparable human losses.

Another implication of the war is a great damage to economy, which has its consequences in short-term,

medium-term, and long-term perspectives. In order to overcome the war consequences, it is important to

estimate, analyze and systematize the key impact for providing a comprehensive understanding of the state

of the economy. The article contributes to such a holistic understanding as its purpose is to identify and to

systemize the key economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. The authors systematized the key impact

of the war for business in Ukraine according to the following spheres: business activity of economic entities,

exchange rate, export, logistics, migration. It was deﬁned that due to the scale of consequences and to the

ongoing (at the moment of the article preparation) hostilities on the territory of Ukraine the state cannot

overcome the damage on its own. This emphasizes the necessity of the international support. The key spheres

of international support were examined according to the countries. The Ukraine state support programs were

also revised in the article.

1 INTRODUCTION

Ukraine’s economy has suffered from a range of is-

sues for quite a long time. Political instability, incom-

pletion of supply chains, high level of competition,

vulnerability to the global crisis tendencies – all these

factors form a signiﬁcant impact on the conditions of

Ukrainian economic entities functioning, thus, on the

state of the economy as a whole. According to the

calculations provided by Yakymchuk et al. (Yakym-

chuk et al., 2021) the level of economic security of

Ukraine during 2009–2019 can be deﬁned as crisis

level. While ﬂuctuating from year to year the cor-

responding level of economic security indicator has

never reached a secure level. The following – 2020 –

year has also brought severe shocks to the country’s

economy due to the COVID-19 outbreak. The year of

2021 was marked by some revival of business activity,

but, at the same time, business entities and the econ-

omy as a whole did not have time enough to recover

from the blow caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

After the full-scale invasion of Russia the immediate

result was GDP reduction by 40 % in the 2nd quarter

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of 2022, and the forecast inﬂation level is set as 31 %

by the end of the year (National Bank of Ukraine,

2022a). Still, the medium-term and long-term conse-

quences remain uncertain, as hostilities continue, the

interaction of various factors causes effects of emer-

gence and resonance, complicating the processes of

forecasting and prediction. Therefore, we believe it is

extremely expedient to provide research in the sphere

of the war outcomes estimation in order to map out

the ways out of the crisis and determine the key mea-

sures for the post-war reconstruction of the country.

It should be mentioned that due to the complemen-

tary origin of the issue none of the researches can

provide holistic understanding and comprehensive an-

swers and solutions, but each research with its speciﬁc

stressed points will contribute to the ﬁnal result.

It is worth noting that the importance of study of

the Russia-Ukraine war consequences is also deter-

mined by the role played by both countries in the

world economy. For example, both countries mu-

tually supply up to 25 % of world wheat export,

and some of the countries (e.g., Armenia, Georgia,

Turkey, etc.) import more than 75 % of the wheat con-

sumed from Russia and Ukraine (World Bank, 2022).

In addition to growing food insecurity risks, the war

Denysiuk, O. and Orlova, K.

Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine: Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives.

DOI: 10.5220/0011931600003432

In Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling Management of Emergent Economy (M3E2 2022), pages 90-101

ISBN: 978-989-758-640-8; ISSN: 2975-9234

 2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

in the region has disrupted a lot of logistic channels,

making it difﬁcult, impossible and / or expensive to

deliver goods internationally. While understanding

the immediate consequences of the war, it is also im-

portant to analyze and forecast the medium and long-

term impact in order to improve the effectiveness of

the activities management and the post-war recon-

struction of the country.

Thus, taking into account the importance of the

outlined issues, as well as the fact that the determi-

nation of potential consequences for the economy of

Ukraine is an important step on the way to the devel-

opment of complex programs for overcoming the re-

spective consequences, we believe that this study will

contribute to the implementation of a comprehensive

approach to the relevant range of problematic issues.

2 LITERATURE REVIEW

The Russia-Ukraine war has become a truly global

conﬂict, as its implications form a great inﬂuence

on most of the world’s countries. Issues of deal-

ing with such inﬂuence and overcoming the conﬂict

consequences are of a special importance nowadays,

that forms a signiﬁcant scientiﬁc interest in the corre-

sponding sphere of researchers all over the world.

The hostilities on Ukraine’s territory have started

in 2014, however, they didn’t impact severely on the

world’s economy. Therefore, at that time, an insignif-

icant number of publications were devoted to the con-

sideration of issues related to the identiﬁcation of the

war’s impact on economic relations. In particular,

Garzon Gordon and Hierro Recio (Garzon Gordon

and Hierro Recio, 2019) analyzed the impact of the

war in Ukraine on global oil prices, taking into ac-

count the fact that Russia is a powerful player in the

oil market. The study is devoted to determining the

relationship between events in Ukraine and the price

of oil. Bluszcz and Valente (Bluszcz and Valente,

2022) analyzed the costs of the hybrid war in Ukraine,

considering the period of 1995–2017. The scientists

deﬁned that not only Ukraine, but also the neighbor-

ing countries suffer from the war consequences. The

main indicator which is analyzed in the research is

GDP per capita, and the authors state that Ukraine has

lost about 15.1 % of GDP per capita due to the war in

2013–2017.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Febru-

ary 2022 had a signiﬁcant economic, geopolitical, and

social impact not only on the parties to the conﬂict,

but also on other countries. This led both to the

growth and scaling of the war consequences, and to

the corresponding attempts to identify and predict the

impact of the war on socio-economic relations. Ac-

cording to Astrov et al. (Astrov et al., 2022) the war

has changed the world in many dimensions – military,

economic, ﬁnancial, and geopolitical. The compre-

hensive study is dedicated to estimating both imme-

diate and medium-term implications of the war from

the standpoint of three perspectives: implications for

Ukraine, for Russia, and for the rest of Europe (As-

trov et al., 2022). Orhan (Orhan, 2022) states that the

consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war will affect

not only the region, but also the economy on a global

scale. The main spheres of impact include ﬁnancial

sanctions, increase of commodity prices, and supply

chain disruptions. Glauben et al. (Glauben et al.,

2022) analyze the implications of the war from the

agricultural trade and food security standpoint. The

authors deﬁne that Russia and Ukraine are both im-

portant market players regarding agricultural products

and fertilizers, as their mutual market share was about

28 % for wheat, 15 % for corn, 66 % for sunﬂower

oil, and 16 % for fertilizers. Thus, war consequences

resulted in reduction of global supplies of mentioned

products forming prerequisites for food security cri-

sis in some countries and regions, especially countries

from the MENA region. According to the estimations

more than 300 million people are at critical high risk

of food insecurity (Glauben et al., 2022).

One of the most discussed issues in current pub-

lications is related to migration trends, particularly

refugees’ ﬂows. Thus, Duszczyk and Kaczmarczyk

(Duszczyk and Kaczmarczyk, 2022) state that Poland

has faced an unprecedented ﬂow of refugees, which

has created a lot of challenges for Poland as for the

receiving country.

Prohorovs (Prohorovs, 2022) deﬁnes that the fur-

ther consequences of the war should be examined

within the following spheres: shocks of price, sup-

plies, and supply chains; inﬂation; employment and

unemployment rate; the economy growth perspec-

tives; possible consequences of confrontation be-

tween the West and Russia. The research provides

a comprehensive analysis of the war impact on the

outlined spheres with a special stress put on the coun-

tries of the European Union. Markus (Markus, 2022)

focuses on the business implications of the war for

Russia. The implications for global business are also

reviewed in the study. The researcher indicates the

following consequences of the war: fuel global inﬂa-

tion, commodity shock, long-term fracturing of the

global ﬁnancial system. Korneyev et al. (Korneyev

et al., 2022) have provided a detailed study of the war

consequences for Ukraine. Particularly, the authors

examine business activity reduction (with a focus on

speciﬁc types of activity) and the governmental sup-

Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine: Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives

port programs, as well as they deﬁne the key chal-

lenges faced by Ukrainian business. The key chal-

lenges, according to Korneyev et al. (Korneyev et al.,

2022) are as follows: supply chain disruption, ship-

ping surcharge, consumer demand, creating stocks of

products, the state of uncertainty among business rep-

resentatives.

Despite the signiﬁcant amount of research in this

ﬁeld, which makes a valuable contribution to creat-

ing a holistic understanding of the consequences of

the war both for Ukraine and for the whole world,

the outlined problem remains insufﬁciently covered

in view of its complexity and multifacetedness. This

determines the relevance of current research and de-

termines its purpose and tasks.

3 OBJECTIVE OF THE

RESEARCH

The purpose of the article is to identify and to sys-

temize the key economic consequences of the war in

Ukraine. The identiﬁcation and systematizing of the

implications will contribute to performing a holistic

approach to the relevant issue, as well as they will

serve as a basis for understanding the priority direc-

tions of action for overcoming the relevant conse-

quences. The deﬁned objective involves solving the

following tasks: to identify key spheres of the war

impact on business functioning in Ukraine; to ana-

lyze trends of changes in spheres selected for analy-

sis; to systematize the main directions of international

support of Ukraine; to consider existing governmen-

tal tools for overcoming crisis phenomena caused by

the war.

4 METHODOLOGY

The methodological basis of the study is a system ap-

proach based on the understanding of socio-economic

relations as a whole and, at the same time, structured

system, which is subject to the catastrophic impact of

military actions. During the research, the following

methods were also used: monographic – when study-

ing available publications and reports on assessing the

consequences of the war; analysis and synthesis – to

identify the key spheres of inﬂuence of the war conse-

quences on the economy of Ukraine; generalization –

for formulating research conclusions; ranking method

– to determine the positions of individual countries

in the overall ranking of aid to Ukraine; the deduc-

tion method – to determine the priority directions for

the development of measures to overcome the conse-

quences of the war; graphical and tabular – to visual-

ize the obtained research results.

5 RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH

War is a complex socio-economic phenomenon that

deﬁnitely affects all spheres of life, both in the coun-

tries participating in the conﬂict, and in the region

or even the world. In addition to irreparable human

losses, military actions also have a devastating effect

on the economy, endangering the functioning of so-

ciety. Wars can affect economic growth, the provi-

sion of production factors, the production structure,

the public budget, and public debt (Garzon Gordon

and Hierro Recio, 2019). Studying the consequences

of war is an important component of developing pro-

grams for overcoming the respective consequences,

because for the formation of adequate support pro-

grams, a clear understanding of the mechanisms of

the impact of war on various spheres and aspects of

the country’s economic life is necessary. S. Mariotti

states that the war is, on one hand, a result of grow-

ing global imbalances and instability and, on the other

hand, is a cause of further growth of such instabil-

ity (Mariotti, 2022). The globalization processes have

led to a situation when regional conﬂicts (the Russia-

Ukraine war particularly) affect a signiﬁcant number

of the world’s countries, creating a negative impact on

economic, social, and geopolitical spheres.

The war in Ukraine will have immediate conse-

quences, as well as medium and long-term impact.

Moreover, this impact will affect not only the coun-

terparties of the war, but almost all countries of the

world. The EU countries will suffer from inﬂation,

price and supply chains shock, and likely will have to

face recession or even stagﬂation (Prohorovs, 2022).

The USA are not so vulnerable to the war conse-

quences but will also fall under the impact of destruc-

tive tendencies created by the war (Prohorovs, 2022).

However, the biggest and worst impact will be on

Ukraine. Since 2014 when the hostilities started at

the Eastern Ukraine, the country has suffered from

a considerable decline of economy (Bluszcz and Va-

lente, 2022). The full-scaled invasion has led to much

greater negative impact. The post-war reconstruction

of Ukraine will require not only signiﬁcant ﬁnancial

resources, but also a clear plan of action, like the Mar-

shall Plan. In turn, the implementation of a compre-

hensive approach to the formation of an appropriate

reconstruction plan requires a clear understanding of

the main spheres of the war consequences.

The study of scientiﬁc literature, reports of

M3E2 2022 - International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling Management of Emergent Economy

Ukrainian institutions and international organizations,

as well as our own experience provided an opportu-

nity to determine the key, in our opinion, spheres of

the formation of the war negative impact on the econ-

omy of Ukraine. We consider it expedient to provide

a description of the identiﬁed spheres.

5.1 Business Activity of Economic

Entities

Full-scale military operations on the territory of

Ukraine dealt an almost devastating blow to busi-

ness, which has not yet fully recovered from the coro-

navirus crisis. Business entities faced a signiﬁcant

number of problems, starting from the physical threat

to existence and the destruction of capacities in the

areas of active hostilities and ending with the destruc-

tion of logistic channels and the reduction of solvent

demand. Even if not situated in the active hostil-

ities zone business entities experience all the con-

sequences of the war: destabilization of the econ-

omy, disruption of supply chains, decrease in sol-

vent demand, increase of inﬂation, etc. (Korneyev

et al., 2022). It is worth noting that the extent to

which business entities are affected can vary signif-

icantly depending on their ﬁeld of activity. Accord-

ing to Korneyev et al. (Korneyev et al., 2022), the

most vulnerable are the following spheres: agricul-

ture, metallurgy, logistics, insurance. In particular,

the NGO “The Institute for Economic Research and

Policy Consulting” conducted a survey of represen-

tatives of domestic business in May-July to identify

expectations and to assess the current situation. In

July, 449 enterprises took part in the survey. Among

them are mainly industrial enterprises located in 21 of

the 27 regions of Ukraine, in particular in Vinnytsia,

Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Za-

porizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv,

Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil,

Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv

regions, and in the city of Kyiv (Kuziakiv et al., 2022).

According to the results of the survey in July 2022,

31.9 % of respondents characterized the current ﬁnan-

cial and economic situation at the enterprise as bad,

and the share of those who assess the situation pos-

itively was only 10.3 % (Kuziakiv et al., 2022). It

is worth noting that such a share indicates the pres-

ence of signiﬁcant crisis tendencies in the activities of

enterprises, which, in turn, negatively affects the dy-

namics of general economic development indicators.

According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine,

real GDP in the II quarter of 2022 decreased com-

pared to the previous quarter by 19.1 % (taking into

account the seasonal factor) and compared to the II

quarter of 2021 – by 37.2 % (State Statistics Service

of Ukraine, 2022). The key factors that create risks

and threats to the existence of Ukrainian business en-

tities include physical threats, exchange rate ﬂuctua-

tions, rising production costs, including due to rising

fuel costs, disruption of logistic channels, problems

with resource provision, including due to the emigra-

tion of the population, a decrease in solvent demand,

etc.

5.2 Exchange Rate

One of the most signiﬁcant spheres that has suffered

a devastating impact as a result of military opera-

tions on the territory of Ukraine is the situation on

the foreign exchange market. Signiﬁcant shocks al-

ways have a negative impact on the exchange rate, the

volatility of which increases signiﬁcantly due to the

uncertainty of the situation. In turn, changes in the

exchange rate potentiate a signiﬁcant number of fur-

ther consequences related to the solvency of the popu-

lation, inﬂation ﬂuctuations, foreign trade policy, etc.

Therefore, the exchange rate is one of the key indica-

tors that has the property of emergence, that is, it af-

fects a signiﬁcant number of socio-economic param-

eters. It is worth noting that at the beginning of the

full-scale war, in order to contain panic ﬂuctuations

and speculative risks, the National Bank of Ukraine

(the NBU) ﬁxed the ofﬁcial rate at UAH 29.25 per

dollar (National Bank of Ukraine, 2022b). This mea-

sure was part of the set of actions introduced by the

NBU to ensure reliable and stable functioning of the

country’s ﬁnancial system. At the same time, the “re-

tail” rate of the dollar differed signiﬁcantly from the

ofﬁcially recorded one, which determined the need

to use foreign exchange reserves to balance the mar-

ket situation. According to ofﬁcial NBU data, gross

international reserves during this period decreased

from USD 29.087 billion equivalent (as of Febru-

ary 1, 2022) to USD 22.387 billion equivalent (as of

August 1, 2022), i.e., by almost $6.7 billion or by

23.03 % (National Bank of Ukraine, 2022b). In or-

der to preserve currency reserves, as well as to prevent

the devaluation of the national currency, the NBU was

forced to increase the discount rate from 10 % to 25 %

in June. At the same time, this measure did not lead to

stabilization of the currency market. In order to avoid

further rapid reduction of foreign exchange reserves,

on July 21, 2022, the NBU adjusted the exchange rate

by 25 % to UAH 36.57 per dollar (National Bank of

Ukraine, 2022b). It is worth noting that the ofﬁcial

rate of the NBU can differ signiﬁcantly from the mar-

ket rate of commercial banks. This situation was es-

pecially critical in March-May 2022, when there was

Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine: Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives

a signiﬁcant increase in the rate of commercial banks

with the ﬁxed rate of the NBU. The trend of changes

in the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar in

commercial banks is shown in ﬁgure 1.

So, we can note a gradual, but signiﬁcant decrease

in the cash rate of the hryvnia to the dollar. Such

a trend led to a signiﬁcant number of negative con-

sequences, including: a decrease in the solvency of

the population, an increase in production costs, an in-

crease in foreign debt in the hryvnia equivalent, as a

result – a deterioration of macroeconomic indicators.

5.3 Export

One of the indicators of the socio-economic develop-

ment of the country most signiﬁcantly related to the

hryvnia exchange rate is export. It is worth noting

that, in general, the devaluation of the hryvnia has a

stimulating effect on exports, but the military actions

that led to the disruption of logistics chains (ﬁrst of

all, the blocking of ports) caused a signiﬁcant reduc-

tion in exports.

According to the State Statistics Service of

Ukraine (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2022),

the export of goods in June 2022 amounted to 3177.5

million USD, and the value of exports for the cor-

responding period of 2021 was 5305.8 million USD,

i.e., there was a decrease in exports by almost 40 %.

The reduction in exports led to the formation of a

signiﬁcant negative foreign trade balance – (–1549.4)

million USD. For comparison, the respective indica-

tor for June 2021 was (–258.4) million USD. The

following product groups experienced the greatest

reduction: grain crops (exports in June 2022 were

only 57.2 % of the level of June 2021); ready-made

food products (50.9 %); mineral products (36.8 %);

products of chemical and related industries (42.2 %);

low-value metals and products from them (35.7 %)

(State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2022). One of

the most crucial not only for Ukraine, but also for

other countries (especially, of the MENA region) ex-

port products is wheat. As Glauben et al. (Glauben

et al., 2022) state the most vulnerable are Albania,

Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Georgia, Mauritania, Sudan,

Tunisia, and Yemen as large parts of their population

are already subject to high risk of undernourishment.

The reduction in exports not only negatively af-

fected the economic condition of exporting enter-

prises, a signiﬁcant number of which faced serious

difﬁculties with the sale of products and ensuring their

existence, but also increased the devaluation of the na-

tional currency due to the reduction in the inﬂow of

foreign exchange earnings to Ukraine. At the same

time, a positive trend emerged. In June 2022 com-

pared to May 2022 seasonally adjusted exports in-

creased by 18.6 %, and imports by 27.6 %. Season-

ally adjusted balance of foreign trade in June 2022

was negative and amounted to 1408.1 million USD. In

May 2022, it was also negative – 889.9 million USD

(State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2022).

According to the ofﬁcial information of Min-

istry of Economy of Ukraine (Ministry of Economy

of Ukraine, nd), in August 2022, the volume of

Ukrainian exports increased by 25 % and amounted

to 7.29 million tons. The increase in exports is con-

nected with the partial unblocking of the ports of

Greater Odesa. This made it possible to signiﬁcantly

increase the volume of export of Ukrainian goods.

As a result, transportation by sea transport increased

by 85 % and amounted to almost 2.9 million tons.

Ukraine exported more than 3 million tons of goods

by rail, 1.36 million tons by road. At the same time,

exporters receive the largest revenue from goods ex-

ported by road – $ 1.48 billion, sea cargo – $ 995

million, and rail cargo – $ 788 million.

The leaders in terms of export value in August

2022 were (Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, nd):

• sunﬂower oil ($ 443 million). Its export volumes

increased by 30 % to 366000 tons. Ukraine began

to export less raw materials – sunﬂower seeds –

and more processed products;

• corn ($ 347 million). Its export increased by 31 %

to 1.5 million tons. It was this export segment

that beneﬁted the most from the unblocking of the

ports from which ships loaded back in February

left;

• rapeseed ($ 305 million). Ukraine has already ex-

ported 665000 tons of this crop of the new harvest;

• wheat ($ 213 million). In August, Ukraine ex-

ported 2.3 times more grain than in July, amount-

ing to 880000 tons (Ministry of Economy of

Ukraine, nd);

• ore ($ 172 million). As a result of the occupa-

tion and destruction of the south-eastern regions,

the volume of exports of metallurgical products is

decreasing. In particular, 1.4 million tons of ore

were exported in August;

• cable products ($ 89 million). Despite the de-

crease in export volumes by 9.8 %, this category

of goods remains one of the key ones;

• electricity ($ 73 million). Revenue from electric-

ity increased by 2 times compared to July. This

is the result of the successful integration of the

Ukrainian energy industry into ENTSO-E – the

energy system of the European Union;

M3E2 2022 - International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling Management of Emergent Economy

Figure 1: Dynamics of the weighted average exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar on the cash currency market of Ukraine

(National Bank of Ukraine, 2022b).

• sunﬂower seeds ($ 71 million). Gradually, this

segment of exports will decrease due to the

growth of processing;

• poultry meat ($ 67 million). The export of prod-

ucts showed a decrease compared to July;

• soybeans ($ 62 million). In August, its export

growth was +30 % to 148000 tons (Ministry of

Economy of Ukraine, nd).

It is important that confectionery processing prod-

ucts show stable upward dynamics: bakery +19.4 %,

sugar +9.1 %, chocolate +25 % (Ministry of Economy

of Ukraine, nd).

We have optimistic prediction from the First

Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy of

Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko (Shalal, 2022). She told

Reuters that Ukraine’s economy should stabilize over

the coming year and expand by as much as 15.5 % in

2023, depending on military actions development in

the war against Russia that began on February.

5.4 Logistics

The well-adjusted transport and logistics activities of

the country are determined not only by the direct

restoration of the national economy but also by the

preservation and further development of international

relations, which are of key importance for modern

economies of developed countries (Ohar et al., 2022).

During the war, the trafﬁc ﬂow increased. Since

the beginning of the war, the seaports have remained

virtually blocked, so the main part of trade ﬂows has

been taken over by road and rail transport. Today

roads and transport points are usually the most dam-

aged and destroyed as strategically important objects

for the movement and storage of military equipment

and, consequently, as battleﬁelds. As of May 2022,

as a result of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine,

about 23 % of railway tracks were damaged, includ-

ing 6.3 thousand km of main tracks. In the ﬁrst quar-

ter of 2022 exports amounted to 102.9 % compared

to the ﬁrst quarter of 2021, imports – 94.4 % com-

pared to the same period last year. At the same time,

foreign trade operations were conducted with partners

from 214 countries (Ohar et al., 2022). We must also

emphasize the breaking of chains, the destruction of

transport routes, the exclusion from operation of key

trunk roads that connected the West, Center, and East

(the Lviv-Kyiv and Kyiv-Kharkiv route); fuel short-

age and high fuel prices; frequent air alarms; highway

logistics stopped working at night due to curfews and

difﬁculties at roadblocks.

In general, it is worth noting that the war and

its consequences from the point of view of logistics

and infrastructure determined the understanding that

in the future, when rebuilding the state, localization

and the creation of alternative infrastructure are nec-

essary (Markus, 2022).

Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine: Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives

5.5 Migration

Another painful issue for Ukraine as a whole, and for

the economy in particular, is population migration re-

lated to hostilities. Orhan (Orhan, 2022) states that

the most signiﬁcant consequence of the war between

Russia and Ukraine is the lives lost and the humani-

tarian crisis associated with the large number of peo-

ple besieged and displaced. A great number of people

left the country (this trend was especially signiﬁcant

at the beginning of the war), in addition, many peo-

ple were forced to move within the country (internal

displacement). Such a situation has signiﬁcant neg-

ative consequences for the business activity of eco-

nomic entities, because the decrease in the number

of the population located on the territory of Ukraine

has led to both a reduction in demand (due to a de-

crease in the number of potential consumers) and to

problems with stafﬁng of economic entities. Approx-

imately 2.75 million refugees from Ukraine are of

working age, of whom 1.2 million worked before the

start of the war in Ukraine and, accordingly, could

enter the EU labor market (Prohorovs, 2022). This

situation results in the absence of the respective hu-

man resources in Ukraine and complicates business

entities functioning. This was especially clearly visi-

ble in February-March, when enterprises and organi-

zations could not always adjust their work due to the

lack of employees (for example, pharmacies belong-

ing to critical infrastructure suffered from the lack of

pharmacists who could work, which, in turn, deter-

mined reduction of pharmacy networks even in rela-

tively “calm” regions).

According to the Ofﬁce of the United Nations

High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR, 2022),

as of September 7, 2022, 7.16 million refugees from

Ukraine were registered in Europe. The largest num-

ber of refugees is registered in Poland (1.37 mil-

lion people), Germany (1 million people), and the

Czech Republic (0.43 million people). In total, since

the beginning of the war, according to the UNCHR,

11.9 million people crossed the borders with Euro-

pean countries towards Europe and 5.3 million peo-

ple moved towards Ukraine. In addition, according to

the estimation, almost 7 million people are internally

displaced within Ukraine. These trends cause prob-

lems with providing shelter for a signiﬁcant number

of displaced persons (UNHCR, 2022). The closest

countries – Poland and Romania – faced a situation of

unpreparedness for such a large number of refugees, a

similar situation is observed in Ukraine in the western

regions. As Astrov et al. (Astrov et al., 2022) deﬁne

“For example, the population of Lviv – the largest city

in western Ukraine – is only about a quarter of the

size of Kyiv.... It is a logistical nightmare to ﬁnd ac-

commodation for half of Kyiv’s population (or about

1.5 m people)”. However, Poland is playing the most

important role in providing sanctuary for Ukrainian

refugees. This phenomenon is caused by several rea-

sons. First of all, Poland is a bordering country which

is situated in the west, this creates a more or less safe

route for ﬂeeing. Secondly, there is a long-lasting

tradition of labor migration from Ukraine to Poland,

which started long before the full-scale war started

(Duszczyk and Kaczmarczyk, 2022). Such tradition

made it easier to ﬁnd shelter, to build logistics, etc.

5.6 Measures for Overcoming Negative

Consequences

The spheres of the negative consequences of the war

discussed above are not exclusive and exhaustive, be-

cause the large-scale military actions on the territory

of Ukraine had an extremely negative impact on all

spheres of socio-economic life. Destruction of in-

frastructure, reduction of business activity, decline in

GDP, signiﬁcant increase in inﬂation, population mi-

gration are just some of the challenges that Ukraine

has faced. Overcoming the consequences of such

challenges requires signiﬁcant efforts, coordination

and, ﬁrst of all, ﬁnancial resources. Suffering from

military operations, Ukraine is currently unable to in-

dependently overcome existing and projected prob-

lems, that actualizes the need and determines the im-

portance of international assistance. In the next sec-

tion of the article, we ﬁnd it expedient to consider the

speciﬁcs of providing international aid to Ukraine as

well as governmental aid to business.

5.7 International Support

Under the war conditions, when the situation changes

every day, it is quite difﬁcult to predict the conse-

quences of Russia’s aggression both for Ukraine and

for the world. Faced with the incredible desire of

Ukrainians to protect the country’s sovereignty and

ﬁght back against the enemy, foreign partners provide

comprehensive assistance to Ukraine. Starting from

February 24, partner countries are helping Ukraine in

various ways.

We analyzed the amount of aid from foreign part-

ners and summarized the open sources of two plat-

forms – Ukrainian FORBES (Landa, 2022) and The

Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Antezza et al.,

2022b). Poland, Estonia, Latvia, United States, and

Lithuania took the ﬁrst places in the updated rating of

“Friends of Ukraine” from FORBES. In general, the

authors have presented a rating for twenty countries,

including sixteen European countries. In the “Friends

M3E2 2022 - International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling Management of Emergent Economy

of Ukraine” rating (7) the authors have considered the

following indicators (Landa, 2022):

• voting at the United Nations General Assembly

for the withdrawal of Russian troops, the intro-

duction of sanctions against Russia and the clo-

sure of its airspace, participation in the conference

to support Ukraine on the basis of “Ramstein Air

Base”, the inclusion of Russia in the list of hostile

countries I(1),

• the recognition of the genocide of Russia/USSR

against Ukraine I(2),

• the expulsion of Russian diplomats I(3),

• the amount of aid to Ukraine, according to the

Kiel Institute, in monetary terms, C billion I(4)

and as % of GDP I(5),

• visits of high-ranking ofﬁcials to Ukraine I(6).

In table 1 we have described the TOP-10 countries

in the “Friends of Ukraine” rating.

Forbes has determined the ﬁnancial component of

the “Friends of Ukraine” rating based on the infor-

mation from The Kiel Institute for the World Econ-

omy. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy fo-

cuses only on government-to-government transfers to

Ukraine (Antezza et al., 2022b). The Ukraine Support

Tracker lists and quantiﬁes military, ﬁnancial, and hu-

manitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine

between January 24, 2022, and currently through Au-

gust 3, 2022. It covers 40 countries, speciﬁcally

the EU member states, other members of the G7, as

well as Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New

Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, and India.

We have summarized the data of the Institute’s re-

port (Antezza et al., 2022a) of various types of assis-

tance to Ukraine. Some institutions are closed, and it

is very difﬁcult to ﬁnd reporting information on them

(such as the United Nations or the Red Cross). Sup-

port from major international organizations includes:

1. IMF programs: On March 9, the International

Monetary Fund announced and disbursed an

emergency assistance loan of $ 1.4 billion to

Ukraine under the umbrella of its Rapid Financ-

ing Instrument.

2. The World Bank: According to the data provided

by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, out of the

$ 2.467 billion $ 929 million have been disbursed

so far, a share of 37.66 %.

3. The European Bank for Reconstruction and De-

velopment (EBRD): On March 9 an international

organization half-owned by European countries,

announced a support package for Ukraine and

neighboring countries totaling $ 2 billion.

Total aid to Ukraine is C84.2 billion (from Euro-

pean Union and 40 countries from January 24, 2022,

until August 3, 2022). In table 2 we compare the type

of government support to Ukraine by type of aid: mil-

itary, humanitarian, and ﬁnancial directions (TOP-10

countries in billion Euros).

Table 2 shows that The United States government

alone (C44.5 billion) committed almost four times as

much to Ukraine than all the individual EU country

governments combined ( C16.22 billion). However,

the large commitments by the EU institutions bring

the total European support to a level closer to the US.

The United States clearly remains the largest donor to

Ukraine.

Table 3 shows the amount of aid provided to

Ukraine by other countries compared to the GDP indi-

cator. Considering the GDP indicator provides an op-

portunity to determine the contribution of each coun-

try taking into account the level of economic develop-

ment of the respective state.

Table 3 shows that Eastern European countries

stand out as particularly generous when consider-

ing the size of their economy, with Estonia, Latvia,

Poland, and Lithuania ranging among the top ten

donors. The United States (being the largest donor in

absolute terms) comes in 10th, with assistance worth

around 0.22 percent of its GDP. Also, Eastern Euro-

pean countries show even higher commitments rela-

tive to GDP if one were to account for support by

hosting Ukrainian refugees.

5.8 Ukrainian State Support for

Business During the War

Supporting Ukrainian businesses is an important task

to ensure the economic capacity of Ukraine to meet

the challenges of war. Revitalization of the en-

trepreneurial activity is a key factor to enhance the

country’s stability and to overcome the consequences

of the war (Korneyev et al., 2022). The state is taking

affordable steps to support companies that ﬁnd them-

selves in difﬁcult conditions. In table 4 we have sum-

marized the main state initiatives to support business

in wartime, presented on the “Diia. Business” gov-

ernment services portal.

The effectiveness of government initiatives is

varying. For example, according to the information

from The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine (Ministry

of Economy of Ukraine, nd), at the end of August,

725 enterprises moved from the regions of active hos-

tilities to safer ones, of which 528 have already re-

sumed their activities at the new location. Another

284 companies are currently searching for a suitable

location or method of transportation. Among the relo-

Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine: Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives

Table 1: Top-10 countries in the “Friends of Ukraine” rating (Landa, 2022).

Country

Indicators

Rating (7)

I(1) I(2) I(3) I(4) I(5) I(6)

Poland Yes Yes 45 5.1 0.88 President, Prime minister 100

Estonia Yes Yes 17 0.3 1.13 President 96

Latvia Yes Yes 16 0.3 1.03 President 96

United States Yes Yes 12 44.5 0.22 House speaker, Secretary of State 93

Lithuania Yes Yes 5 0.3 0.55 President 90

Portugal Yes Yes 10 0.5 0.24 Prime minister 90

United Kingdom Yes Partly 23 6.6 0.25 Prime minister 89

Italy Yes Partly 30 2.8 0.15 Prime minister 89

Spain Yes Partly 25 2.3 0.19 Prime minister 88

Slovakia Yes Partly 38 0.4 0.43 President, Prime minister 88

Table 2: Government support to Ukraine: type of aid, C billion (Antezza et al., 2022b).

Country

Type of aid, C billion

Total, C billion

military ﬁnancial humanitarian

United States 25.0 9.2 10.3 44.5

EU Institutions 2.5 1.42 12.3 16.22

United Kingdom 4.0 0.38 2.10 6.48

Germany 1.2 0.75 1.15 3.1

Canada 0.96 0.26 1.82 3.04

Poland 1.80 0.10 0.99 2.89

France 0.23 0.12 0.80 1.15

Norway 0.21 0 1.03 1.24

Japan 0 0 0.59 0.59

Italy 0.15 0 0.31 0.46

Table 3: Government support to Ukraine: by donor GDP,

incl. refugee costs (Antezza et al., 2022b).

Country

Bilateral aid

(percent of GDP)

Refugee costs

(percent of GDP,

rough baseline

estimate)

Estonia 0.8 0.4

Latvia 0.8 0.3

Poland 0.5 0.5

Czech Republic 0.2 0.4

Lithuania 0.3 0.3

Slovakia 0.2 0.2

Norway 0.4 0.02

Bulgaria 0.01 0.31

United Kingdom 0.2 0.01

United States 0.22 0.00

cated enterprises that have already resumed their ac-

tivities in the new place, the largest part is formed

up by enterprises operating in the sphere of whole-

sale and retail trade – more than 40 % (of the to-

tal number of relocated enterprises) and enterprises

in the sphere of processing industry – 30 %. Also,

among displaced companies, almost 7 % are active

in the sphere of information and telecommunications,

6 % – in professional, scientiﬁc and technical ac-

tivities, and 4 % – in the sphere of construction.

The most signiﬁcant number of enterprises were re-

located to Lviv (29 % of relocated enterprises), Za-

karpattia (18 %), Chernivtsi (13 %), Ternopil (8 %)

and Khmelnytskyi (7.6 %) regions. Among the

large companies that were relocated are LLC “Pozh-

mashina”, LLC “CORUM Druzhkovka Machine-

Building Plant”, LLC “Staleks”, PJSC “Kramatorsk

Heavy Duty Machine Tool Building Plant” (Ministry

of Economy of Ukraine, nd).

Another important direction of state support for

business is preferential taxation, which made it possi-

ble to reduce the tax burden for enterprises and thus

mobilize additional reserves to ensure the survival of

business entities.

Based on open sources, we have summarized the

tax innovations information proposed by the govern-

ment:

1) individual entrepreneurs of the I and II groups

(simpliﬁed tax system) during the martial law

and within a year after its completion will be ex-

empted from paying a single social contribution;

M3E2 2022 - International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling Management of Emergent Economy

Table 4: Spheres of state support for business during wartime (Diia.Business, 2022).

Sphere Explanation

Compensation for em-

ployment of internally

displaced persons (IDP)

or 6,500 hryvnias within

eSupport

Compensation to the employer for labour costs for each internally displaced per-

son. The source is the state budget reserve fund. Ukrainians will be able to receive

UAH 6500 within the eSupport program in the areas where the most active hos-

tilities are taking place. These funds can be used to pay for any expenses without

restricting the type of business. Hired employees and individual entrepreneurs of

all groups will be able to receive assistance.

The Government program

of the enterprises evacua-

tion from the combat zone

The government has presented the program for the evacuation of enterprises from

the war zone to the west of Ukraine. Businesses will be provided with appropriate

conditions for work in the new place and employment opportunities for people.

Enterprises will be provided with assistance in selecting locations for their pro-

duction facilities, transportation and resettlement of personnel, and search for new

employees. The program is aimed at preserving the production and labour poten-

tial of Ukraine and is aimed at all enterprises that wish to move production to the

territory of the western regions of Ukraine.

The Government program

“eWork”

Any Ukrainian who does not work at other enterprises can take part. To receive

money, you need to submit an application through “Diia” or in the branches of the

OshchadBank together with the attached business plan. Money can be received by

anyone who has the desire, skills and plan to start their own business or expand

their business. For the grant, it will be possible to purchase equipment, buy raw

materials or pay for the rent of the premises.

For example:

– Grant for own business: up to UAH 250000

– Gardening grant: up to UAH 400000

– Greenhouse grant: up to UAH 7 million

– Grant for a processing enterprise: up to UAH 8 million.

State support “Credit pro-

gram for exporters”

Credit program for companies that, due to the aggression of the Russian Feder-

ation, need additional ﬁnancing for the implementation of export contracts. The

affordable ﬁnancing program for exporters during the war “Loans for the imple-

mentation of foreign economic contracts under a simpliﬁed procedure” will help

Ukrainian manufacturers enter new markets and become competitive.

Support of Ukrainian en-

trepreneurs under condi-

tions of war to preserve

business and jobs

The tool from the UA Anti-crisis initiative will help to gather information about

resources, build a strategy and take speciﬁc steps to start a business with the aim

of faster recovery of the Ukrainian economy.

2) enterprises and individual entrepreneurs of the III

group (simpliﬁed tax system) will be exempted

from paying a single social contribution for em-

ployees who joined the armed forces and other

armed groups (including territorial defense). The

fee will be paid by the state;

3) payment of taxes for all enterprises that are unable

to pay them is postponed;

4) the introduction of cash registers for all individual

entrepreneurs is postponed;

5) all measures of the market and consumer surveil-

lance in all matters, except for price regulation

and control over pricing, will be abolished. A

moratorium on inspections of all types for busi-

ness has already been established.

Tax innovations also involve the following mea-

sure: VAT and income tax have been replaced dur-

ing the wartime by a 2 % turnover tax (the transition

to this taxation system is voluntary). The taxation of

fuel is also diminished in order to constrain the prices

(Astrov et al., 2022).

Summarizing the above mentioned, we can con-

clude that currently a signiﬁcant number of measures

to overcome the consequences of the war in Ukraine

are already being implemented by both foreign gov-

ernments and the government of Ukraine. However,

we should note that most of these measures are aimed

at ensuring business survival and ongoing support for

Ukraine, while spheres related to the post-war recon-

struction of the state are also important. We see the

prospects for further research in the formation of a

complex system of measures for overcoming the neg-

ative consequences of the war in Ukraine.

Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine: Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives

6 CONCLUSIONS

War in Ukraine is a powerful trigger, signiﬁcantly in-

creasing the level of inﬂation and exacerbating the

existing issues of economies. Companies and coun-

tries have needed to adapt their activities to the con-

sequences of the Russian war in Ukraine. The con-

sequences of the war for Ukraine are especially sig-

niﬁcant (for objective reasons), because currently

Ukraine suffers not only from direct military actions,

but also from the economic consequences associated

with them. Therefore, it is extremely important to

understand the consequences of the war both in the

short-term and in the medium-term perspective. The

article identiﬁed the key directions of the formation

of the negative impact of the war on socio-economic

relations in Ukraine. It is worth noting that busi-

ness in Ukraine faced unprecedented challenges re-

lated to both the threat to existence (physical) and the

destruction of economic ties, the loss of sales mar-

kets, the increase in costs, and the decrease in the efﬁ-

ciency of functioning. Based on the results of the re-

search, the main risks and threats were systematized

in the following spheres: business activity of eco-

nomic entities, exchange rate, export, logistics, pop-

ulation migration (refugees). The researched list of

directions of the formation of the war negative impact

on socio-economic relations in Ukraine is not exhaus-

tive, but it provides an opportunity to contribute to

the formation of a holistic understanding of the state

and prospects for the development of the situation in

Ukraine. In turn, such a comprehensive understand-

ing will serve as a basis for developing complex pro-

grams to overcome the negative consequences of the

war in Ukraine. Based on the analysis of the scale of

negative consequences, it was determined that, given

the current situation, Ukraine is unable to indepen-

dently overcome the existing problems, which deter-

mines the importance of international support. Cur-

rently international support should be analyzed in two

directions: diplomatic and ﬁnancial (in terms of mili-

tary, humanitarian, and purely ﬁnancial). The largest

contribution to total aid in absolute terms was made

by the USA, however, if the analysis is carried out in

comparison with the GDP of the respective country,

then the countries of Eastern Europe (Estonia, Latvia,

and Poland) take the ﬁrst places in terms of aid. At

the same time, the government of Ukraine implements

measures aimed at supporting both business and the

population, which is extremely important from the

point of view of preserving the country’s potential.

We see the prospects for further research in the for-

mation of a complex system of measures aimed at

overcoming the consequences of the war in Ukraine,

which will be based on the data of the econometric

model for assessing the impact of individual factors

on the resulting indicator (for example, GDP).

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