Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and
Opportunities to Overcome Them
A. I. Akavova
1
and S. A. Beguev
2
1
State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “Dagestan State University of National Economy”,
Makhachkala, Russia
2
Kadyrov Chechen State University, 32 Sheripova Street, Grozny, Russia
Keywords: Low-carbon development, energy transition, decarbonization, renewable energy sources, energy policy,
greenhouse gases, global warming, cross-border carbon regulation, carbon tax, cap-and-trade.
Abstract: The article discusses the low-carbon development of energy, the energy transition, which is the energy basis
for transforming the world to a low-carbon economy. The climate agenda of the European Union is analyzed.
Threats and risks for Russia associated with cross-border carbon regulation in the EU, shrinkage of global
fossil fuel markets, and increased competition on them. The possibilities of Russia's international cooperation
in the provision of fossil fuels are being explored. Approaches that reduce threats to Russia in the process of
transition to a low-carbon economy are considered.
1 INTRODUCTION
The transition to a low-carbon economy in recent
years has become an important direction in the
development of many countries of the world
community, which largely determines the
possibilities for economic growth, the direction and
effectiveness of international cooperation.
A low-carbon economy is characterized by low
consumption of fossil fuels. The need for a transition
to such an economy is associated with global climate
change caused by anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere: such as carbon
dioxide CO2, methane CH4, ozone O3, etc. This
leads to an increase in temperature on the planet,
melting ice, rising sea level, brings irreversible
damage to the environment, causing irreversible
climate change. The greatest impact on the climate
has an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide
CO2 in the atmosphere. Methane (CH4) and other
greenhouse gases have a much lesser impact on
climate change.
The global nature of the "transition" requires the
combined efforts and coordinated approaches of
countries at different levels of economic
development, primarily in the energy sectorHowever,
in the context of expanding and deepening
international cooperation, the role of the political
factor in solving emerging problems is growing, and
the transition to a low-carbon economy can become a
hostage to political intrigues and big politics.
The situation is complicated by the SOUGO-19
coronavirus infection, as a result of which
cooperation channels within the country are limited,
borders between countries are closed, foreign
economic relations are curtailed, and production
chains are being destroyed. On world markets, as a
result of the slowdown in production, demand for
Russian energy carriers is decreasing.
The energy policy of the European Union, the
United States, and a number of other countries of the
world community is aimed at reducing the
consumption of fossil fuels, and strict carbon
regulation measures are being introduced. Under
these conditions, Russia, which plays an important
role in the global energy supply, in the near future
may be under pressure from the compression of
foreign markets for fossil fuels, strict measures of
carbon regulation. There are risks and threats for the
development of its economy.
To overcome them, systemic transformations of
the Russian economy are needed, it is necessary to
create capable institutions with effective tools and
mechanisms for strategic planning that will make it
possible to switch to a low-carbon economy and
energy, to enter the trajectory of sustainable
development.
88
Akavova, A. and Beguev, S.
Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them.
DOI: 10.5220/0011555200003524
In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Methods, Models, Technologies for Sustainable Development (MMTGE 2022) - Agroclimatic Projects and Carbon Neutrality, pages
88-95
ISBN: 978-989-758-608-8
Copyright
c
2023 by SCITEPRESS Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
The energy basis for the transformation of the world
to a low-carbon economy is the fourth energy
transition. It is generally accepted that so far mankind
has experienced three energy transitions to a new
combination of energy carriers: from biomass
(including firewood and waste) to the dominant
position of coal, from coal to the decisive role of oil,
and from oil to the increasing role of gas, hydropower
and nuclear fuel.
And if earlier an important motive for switching
from a combination of some energy sources to others
was their efficiency and competitiveness of costs,
now, in addition to these factors, decisive attention is
paid to the decarbonization of the energy sector
(reducing the share of fossil fuels in the energy
balance, developing the electric power industry, and
reducing the energy intensity of the economy).
The energy sector of the world economy, which
accounts for the main greenhouse gas emissions, is
central to the transition to a low-carbon economy. The
energy sector in the world accounts for about 80% of
all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere. Their main source is fossil fuels. In
the global structure of energy consumption in 2020, it
accounted for 83.1%, in Russia's energy consumption
- 86.4%1.
Energy decarbonization implies a reduction in
carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy
produced, which is associated with technological
modernization and significant structural changes in
the economy (Glazyev, 2021). Without a new
technological base, it is impossible to drastically
reduce the use of fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, and reduce the share of industries with a
high carbon footprint in the economy. With low-
carbon development, it is necessary to close coal-
fired thermal power plants, cement and glass
production, metallurgical enterprises, and reduce the
car park that uses fossil fuels. It is necessary to
expand the use of electrical energy and improve the
energy efficiency of the economy.
In Russia, energy is not only a carbon-intensive,
but a backbone sector of the economy. In the process
of transition to low-carbon development, energy is
the core of structural and technological
transformations, the adaptation of the Russian
economy to the new climate agenda.
In the process of energy transition, the use of
fossil fuels (primarily coal, oil, and in the more distant
future, gas) is gradually decreasing in the structure of
energy production, and the share of renewable energy
sources (RES) in the energy balance is being
increased. Nuclear power is being developed in a
number of countries. Much attention is paid to the
development of electrification, the use of hydrogen as
an energy carrier and energy storage, the
modernization of the technological base at all stages
of the energy flow.
An important technical content of the fourth
energy transition is the fifth and sixth technological
modes. The fifth mode is based on the achievements
of microelectronics, information technology, genetic
engineering, fiber optic communication systems. The
sixth technological order is based on the development
of nano- and biotechnology, nanoenergy, molecular
and cellular technology. The emergence of new
technologies makes it possible to ensure progress in
the creation of efficient renewable energy sources, the
use of hydrogen, the development of nuclear energy,
and the creation of controlled thermonuclear
installations. At the same time, they make it possible
to drastically reduce the energy and material intensity
of production, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
and other pollutants, i.e. ensure low-carbon
development of the economy.
“As the next technological order develops, a new
type of infrastructure is created that overcomes the
limitations of the previous one, and a transition is
made to new types of energy carriers that lay the
resource base.
for the formation of the next technological
paradigm"
The transition to a new combination of energy
sources makes it possible to increase the efficiency of
the use of energy resources, reduce the dependence of
economic growth on energy consumption, switch to
clean energy and the economy as a whole, and
thereby prevent negative climate change associated
with rising global temperatures. The transition to a
new energy base will largely determine the success of
the transformation of the world economy to a low-
carbon economy (Gorodnitsky, 2019).
Limiting the global warming of the Earth's
climate is one of the fundamental ideas that is at the
heart of the need to move to low-carbon development.
However, it should be noted that among scientists,
politicians, economists there is no unambiguous view
on the causes of global warming. According to a
number of experts, global warming is a myth that
frightens all of humanity. From their point of view,
the cause of global warming is not associated with
anthropogenic and man-made factors, with
greenhouse gas emissions. It is associated primarily
Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them
89
with fluctuations in solar activity and other natural
factors.
One can argue about whether the theory of global
warming really reflects the processes that occur in the
planet's atmosphere, but it gives a powerful impetus
to the entire world community towards a more
rational combination of energy sources, the transition
to a new technological order. This allows us to
significantly improve the technical level in all sectors
of the economy, increase the efficiency of capital
investment, and move to a new level of energy
consumption. And in this sense, the idea of low-
carbon development has many advantages.
However, if global warming is in no way or
weakly related to anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases, then this fundamentally changes
the approaches, methods and mechanisms for the
transition to low-carbon development.
3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The energy basis for the transformation of the world
to a low-carbon economy is the fourth energy
transition. It is generally accepted that so far mankind
has experienced three energy transitions to a new
combination of energy carriers: from biomass
(including firewood and waste) to the dominant
position of coal, from coal to the decisive role of oil,
and from oil to the increasing role of gas, hydropower
and nuclear fuel.
And if earlier an important motive for switching
from a combination of some energy sources to others
was their efficiency and competitiveness of costs,
now, in addition to these factors, decisive attention is
paid to the decarbonization of the energy sector
(reducing the share of fossil fuels in the energy
balance, developing the electric power industry, and
reducing the energy intensity of the economy).
3.1 Energy Transition
The energy sector of the world economy, which
accounts for the main greenhouse gas emissions, is
central to the transition to a low-carbon economy. The
energy sector in the world accounts for about 80% of
all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere. Their main source is fossil fuels. In
the global structure of energy consumption in 2020, it
accounted for 83.1%, in Russia's energy consumption
- 86.4%1.
Energy decarbonization implies a reduction in
carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy
produced, which is associated with technological
modernization and significant structural changes in
the economy. Without a new technological base, it is
impossible to drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels,
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce the
share of industries with a high carbon footprint in the
economy. With low-carbon development, it is
necessary to close coal-fired thermal power plants,
cement and glass production, metallurgical
enterprises, and reduce the car park that uses fossil
fuels. It is necessary to expand the use of electrical
energy and improve the energy efficiency of the
economy.
In Russia, energy is not only a carbon-intensive,
but a backbone sector of the economy. In the process
of transition to low-carbon development, energy is
the core of structural and technological
transformations, the adaptation of the Russian
economy to the new climate agenda.
In the process of energy transition, the use of
fossil fuels (primarily coal, oil, and in the more distant
future, gas) is gradually decreasing in the structure of
energy production, and the share of renewable energy
sources (RES) in the energy balance is being
increased. Nuclear power is being developed in a
number of countries. Much attention is paid to the
development of electrification, the use of hydrogen as
an energy carrier and energy storage, the
modernization of the technological base at all stages
of the energy flow.
An important technical content of the fourth
energy transition is the fifth and sixth technological
modes. The fifth mode is based on the achievements
of microelectronics, information technology, genetic
engineering, fiber optic communication systems. The
sixth technological order is based on the development
of nano- and biotechnology, nanoenergy, molecular
and cellular technology. The emergence of new
technologies makes it possible to ensure progress in
the creation of efficient renewable energy sources, the
use of hydrogen, the development of nuclear energy,
and the creation of controlled thermonuclear
installations. At the same time, they make it possible
to drastically reduce the energy and material intensity
of production, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
and other pollutants, i.e. ensure low-carbon
development of the economy (Yulkin, 2019).
“As the next technological order develops, a new
type of infrastructure is created that overcomes the
limitations of the previous one, and a transition is
made to new types of energy carriers that lay the
resource base. for the formation of the next
technological paradigm"
The transition to a new combination of energy
sources makes it possible to increase the efficiency of
MMTGE 2022 - I International Conference "Methods, models, technologies for sustainable development: agroclimatic projects and carbon
neutrality", Kadyrov Chechen State University Chechen Republic, Grozny, st. Sher
90
the use of energy resources, reduce the dependence of
economic growth on energy consumption, switch to
clean energy and the economy as a whole, and
thereby prevent negative climate change associated
with rising global temperatures. The transition to a
new energy base will largely determine the success of
the transformation of the world economy to a low-
carbon economy.
Limiting the global warming of the Earth's climate
is one of the fundamental ideas that is at the heart of
the need to move to low-carbon development.
However, it should be noted that among scientists,
politicians, economists there is no unambiguous view
on the causes of global warming. According to a
number of experts, global warming is a myth that
frightens all of humanity. From their point of view,
the cause of global warming is not associated with
anthropogenic and man-made factors, with
greenhouse gas emissions. It is associated primarily
with fluctuations in solar activity and other natural
factors.
One can argue about whether the theory of global
warming really reflects the processes that occur in the
planet's atmosphere, but it gives a powerful impetus
to the entire world community towards a more
rational combination of energy sources, the transition
to a new technological order. This allows us to
significantly improve the technical level in all sectors
of the economy, increase the efficiency of capital
investment, and move to a new level of energy
consumption. And in this sense, the idea of low-
carbon development has many advantages.
However, if global warming is in no way or
weakly related to anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases, then this fundamentally changes
the approaches, methods and mechanisms for the
transition to low-carbon development (Bashmakov,
2021).
3.2 Climate Agenda
Global warming, climate change leads to the
deterioration of the ecological situation on the planet,
hinders the development of the world community.
The global climate agenda is gaining more and more
support among the countries of the world community.
For the first time, the foundations of international
climate policy were laid down in the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in 1992. Its ultimate goal is to “achieve
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that excludes dangerous
anthropogenic impact on the climate system.”
An important step in the fight against negative
climate change for the entire world community was
the Paris Climate Agreement, which was adopted in
December 2015 and entered into force in 2021.5 It is
aimed at combating global warming, limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and came to to succeed the
1997 Kyoto Protocol. It is intended to ensure that
peak CO2 emissions are reached as quickly as
possible, to keep the increase in global average
temperature "well below" 2°C, and to "make efforts"
to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5°C6. As of
November 2020, 194 states and the European Union
have signed the agreement.
The most radical and ambitious measures for the
transition to low-carbon development are being taken
by the European Union. As part of the New Green
Deal project 2019, it is planned to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions (among which CO2 is the main one) by
2030 by at least 55% compared to 1990. By 2050, it
is planned to achieve carbon neutrality, that is,
emissions of carbon dioxide and its analogues are
offset by their absorption (carbon-negative projects).
The main ideas and provisions of the New Green
Agenda project were further developed in two
important strategic documents aimed at achieving
climate neutrality. These include: Strategy for the
integration development of the energy system
EU (An EU Strategy for Energy System
Integration, Brussels, 8.7.20 208) and A Hydrogen
Strategy for a Climate-Neutral Europe, Brussels,
8.7.20 209. They were submitted by the European
Commission in July 2020.
Energy system integration refers to “the planning
and operation of the energy system as a whole”,
covering many energy carriers, infrastructures and
consumption sectors, by creating stronger links
between them in order to provide low-carbon, reliable
and resource-efficient energy services at the lowest
possible cost to society”
The transition to a more integrated energy system
will provide an opportunity to strengthen the
interconnectedness of individual sectors of the EU
energy economy. Regional and cross-border
coordination among EU Member States will become
increasingly important. It is planned to develop
common market rules for various sectors of the
energy economy, strengthen cooperation in the
planning and management of electricity and gas
networks, which is especially important in the context
of the expected significant growth in demand for
electricity during the transition to a climate-neutral
economy. All this will help to improve the efficiency
of energy use.
Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them
91
The share of electricity in final energy
consumption is projected to increase from 23% in
2019 to about 30% in 2030 and to 50% by 2050. The
basis of the growing demand for electricity will be
renewable energy sources. By 2030, the share of
renewable energy sources in the electricity mix may
double to 55-60%, and by 2050 it will be about 84%.
The need to increase the supply of electricity will be
met through the operation of renewable energy
sources not only on land, but also on the shelf. The
potential of offshore wind power in the EU by 2050
will be 300-450 GW against today's capacity of about
12 GW.
In the future, the volume of natural gas
consumption in the European Union will gradually
decrease. However, it is assumed that gaseous fuels,
as before, will continue to play an important role in
the energy mix. Along with the traditional "fossil"
natural gas, a mixture of gaseous energy carriers -
biogas, biomethane, hydrogen, synthetic gases - will
become more widespread. According to estimates, by
2050 the share of fossil natural gas in the total
consumption of gaseous fuels will be reduced to 20%,
and the remaining 80% will fall on a mixture of
gaseous energy carriers (renewable gases,
decarbonized gases). It is planned to revise the
legislative framework in order to create a competitive
market for decarbonized gas suitable for the use of
renewable gases.
The integrated energy system opens up new
opportunities for attracting investments in clean
technologies, minimizes the costs of transition to
climate neutrality, provides additional flexibility for
the overall management of the energy system, and
strengthens the EU's industrial leadership at the
global level. Energy system integration, realizing the
potential for energy efficiency, is essential to achieve
higher climate goals by 2030 and climate neutrality
by 2050.
The “Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate Neutral
Europe” involves the widespread use of hydrogen,
which can be used as a fuel or raw material in
industry, transport, energy, construction and
households. Hydrogen can be used to produce, store,
store and deliver energy. The main difference
between hydrogen and other energy carriers is that it
does not emit CO2 and, when used, almost does not
pollute the air. The transportation of hydrogen
through the existing transport network (pipelines) and
its long-term large-scale storage, unlike electricity,
can be well mastered, which allows creating, if
necessary, energy reserves for their use at the right
time. The share of hydrogen in the energy mix will be
comparable to that currently occupied by certain
types of fossil fuels. The share of hydrogen in the EU
energy balance is projected to grow from the current
level of less than 2% in 2018 to 13-14% by 2050. The
priority direction of the hydrogen strategy is the
production of hydrogen using renewable energy
sources - wind and solar. At the first stage it is
supposed to use low-carbon hydrogen.
It is supposed to create an open and competitive
EU market with unhindered cross-border trade in
hydrogen, which will create conditions for deeper
integration with other energy carriers. Hydrogen
issues can be included in EU international agreements
in the field of energy and diplomacy, as well as in the
field of climate, research, trade and international
cooperation. This will contribute to the emergence of
a global competitive hydrogen market, international
trade in hydrogen of the European Union with other
countries.
Accelerating the transition to "green" energy, the
European Union is taking measures to accelerate the
development of renewable energy sources, reduce
carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, reduce
the consumption of fossil fuels, and by 2050 to
abandon its consumption. The plans are ambitious,
and this does not mean that they will be fully
implemented, but they do exist and they must be
taken into account, taken into account when
developing a strategy for Russia's long-term
development.
By adopting the Paris Agreement, Russia has
assumed voluntary limits on greenhouse gas
emissions. But these restrictions are associated with
significant risks for the national economy, primarily
energy and energy-intensive industries (metallurgy,
production of nitrogen fertilizers and cement). Russia
has a significant part of its income from natural rent.
In its export-oriented raw material model, an
important place is played by the extraction of fuel and
its supply abroad. If, when limiting their emissions,
the real opportunities and interests of the Russian
economy are not taken into account, if the
effectiveness of measures that limit greenhouse
emissions is not assessed, then this may lead to an
increase in threats to the national security of the
country of Russia (Glazyev, 2018).
Russia is the fourth country in the world in terms
of greenhouse gas generation. Carbon dioxide CO2 is
used as an equivalent for estimating total emissions.
In 2020, in terms of CO2 emissions, Russia ranked
fourth in the world (4.6%) of total carbon dioxide
emissions among 65 countries that provide about 95%
of all global emissions. In the first place in this
indicator was China (30.7%), the second - the USA
(13.8%), the third - India (7.1%).
MMTGE 2022 - I International Conference "Methods, models, technologies for sustainable development: agroclimatic projects and carbon
neutrality", Kadyrov Chechen State University Chechen Republic, Grozny, st. Sher
92
In terms of the intensity of carbon dioxide
emissions in kilograms per unit of GDP, Russia and
China occupy leading positions in the world
community. In
It presents two low-carbon development
scenarios: inertial and targeted (intensive), which is
proposed as the main one. Achievement of carbon
neutrality of the Russian Federation is scheduled for
2060, but possibly even earlier. The carbon intensity
of the economy should be more than halved. Net
greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 60% by
2050 compared to 2019. Increasing the absorptive
capacity of Russian forests from the current 535 to
1200 million tons13 of carbon dioxide equivalent by
2050 is becoming an important way to achieve carbon
neutrality.
3.2.1 Threats and Risks
Low-carbon development in the conditions of the
existing world order (lack of balance of power in the
world community and coherence of international
processes) brings, first of all, benefits to those
countries that do not have significant reserves of
fossil fuels, but have leadership in scientific and
technological progress, occupy leading positions in
the knowledge economy.
The closest and real threat to the Russian economy
is the cross-border carbon regulation (TCR), which is
supposed to be introduced by the European Union.
Cross-border carbon regulation (CTR) refers to the
imposition of duties on carbon-intensive goods
imported by the EU. This tax is introduced for exports
from countries that do not charge for high CO2
emissions.
European companies currently pay billions of
euros annually for CO2 emissions. They pay about 30
euros per tonne of CO2 emissions. A similar carbon
tax is expected to be introduced in the US and
Canada. In order to create a level playing field for
European companies and those outside the EU, it is
proposed to impose duties on carbon-intensive goods
imported by the EU. The introduction of EU
transboundary carbon regulation aims the countries of
the world community to reduce carbon emissions,
directs them to reduce the carbon intensity of exports.
However, such regulation can significantly change
the structure and direction of international
commodity flows, affecting all links in the value
chains, as competitive advantages in the European
market change (Nikoláeva, 2018).
A large-scale plan to introduce a carbon tax in the
EU on imported goods has been in the process of
development since March 2020. The COVID-19
pandemic has not slowed down work on the creation
of new tax instruments, but has only accelerated it.
The parameters of the carbon tax should be prepared
by the European Commission and come into force by
November 1, 202314. The main indicators and
mechanisms of this tax will be included in the
European climate law. Cross-border carbon
regulation makes it possible to ensure the
competitiveness of relatively expensive products
produced in the European Union, but with minimal
CO2 emissions, with goods from other countries that
use cheaper, but carbon-intensive technologies, with
significant greenhouse gas emissions.
World experience shows that for limiting and
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the most
effective are economic instruments that form the price
of carbon. These include carbon taxes and emissions
trading systems (ETS). “This allows us to include in
the cost of production those external costs that the
economy and society as a whole will have to bear to
overcome the consequences of emissions,
“monetizing” the damage to the environment”
There are estimates according to which Russia
ranks second in the world after China in terms of
carbon-intensive exports to the EU: annually 150-200
million tons of exports of CO2 equivalent for all
goods and services. Depending on the calculation
methodology, the level of the taxable base for tax
collection can be significantly lower and amount to
100-160 million tons16. In this case, the calculation
does not take into account some of the goods and
services, for example, transport, which are not yet
included in the EU ETS (Emission trading scheme -
greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme). If we
assume that the entire volume of emissions is taxed,
and the possible value of the fee per ton of CO2
emissions is estimated at 30 euros, then the additional
tax burden for Russian exporters will be 3.0-4.8
billion euros per year. Other calculation options are
also possible, when only the excess of emissions
above the established level is taxed.
The carbon tax on imports reduces the
competitiveness of Russian goods compared to their
European counterparts, and such basic sectors of the
Russian economy as the energy and chemical
industries, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy are
significantly affected. The competitive struggle of
Russian goods in the EU market is escalating. A
cross-border carbon tax could require additional costs
for Russian oil and gas, coal and steel companies in
the millions of euros per year. All of the above can
become an important factor affecting the
competitiveness of Russian products.
Low-carbon Energy Development: Threats for Russia and Opportunities to Overcome Them
93
Under the current conditions, in order to adapt the
economy to the introduction of EU transboundary
carbon regulation in the short term, Russia could take
the following steps:
- it is necessary to develop a national standard
for carbon reporting in Russia so that it
corresponds to international analogues that
meet more stringent European environmental
standards;
- evaluate the extent to which the proposed
restrictions on international trade do not
contradict international standards and comply
with WTO rules. Cross-border carbon
regulation should not create conditions for
unfair competition, when EU companies
acquire preferences from their governments,
gaining advantages over Russian companies;
- it is necessary to create a national system for
trading greenhouse gas emissions. For Russia,
which has significant opportunities for natural
absorption of CO2 by forests and natural
ecosystems, it is advisable to form a market for
greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide),
introduce quotas for greenhouse gases, and
create conditions for trading them.
With the transition to a low-carbon economy, the
peak of demand for the main product that Russia
produces and that is in demand abroad - fossil fuels is
significantly approaching in time. After reaching it,
there is a drop in demand for it. The global market for
fossil fuels is shrinking. There are estimates
according to which, as a result of the low-carbon
development of the economy, the world coal
consumption peak should occur in the 2020s and
2030s. - world peak oil consumption and 2040s. -
world gas consumption peak17.
In the future, a situation may arise when there will
be no place left in the external, as well as in the
domestic, markets for fossil fuels, i.e. what Russia is
rich in and on which its economic growth largely
depends, will not be in demand. Keeping the focus on
the raw material model focused on the export of fossil
fuels in the conditions when the world is moving to a
low-carbon economy, Russia will increasingly lag
behind other countries in the world community, will
lead to a slowdown in economic growth until they are
completely zeroed, and then fall.
The contraction of the world markets for fossil
fuels is accompanied by increased international
competition on them. Such major transnational
corporations as Saudi Aramco, National Iranian Oil
Co, Gazprom, Exxon Mobil, PetroChina, Rosneft,
BP, Royal Dutch/Shell, Chevron Texaco, Total,
Kuwait Petroleum Corp. In the transition to a low-
carbon economy, competition is shifting from
competition for resources, for access to the most
efficient hydrocarbon deposits, to a fierce struggle for
markets.
The result of the shrinkage of world energy
markets, if we do not get away from the raw material
export model, will be the strengthening of Russia's
isolation in the world economy, the reduction of the
opportunity to develop due to the advantages of the
international division of labor. This will hit the
economy of the country, which, after the collapse of
the USSR, has significantly expanded foreign
economic relations and become less self-sufficient,
becoming largely dependent on Western technologies
and equipment. It is impossible to develop hard-to-
recover oil and gas fields without the use of advanced
Western technologies. Import substitution can give
some positive results in certain sectors of the
economy, but in conditions of isolation it is difficult
to overcome a significant technological gap. Much
more development opportunities lie in the advantages
of the international division of labor (Porfiriev, 2010).
In the process of transition to a low-carbon
economy, Russia faces the risk of a fall (decrease) in
the geopolitical potential of the country, which
currently largely depends on the availability and
volume of natural resources, primarily fossil fuels,
with which the country is rich. Russia owns 6.2% of
the world's oil reserves, 19.1% - gas, 15.2% - coal.
Russia accounts for 11.5% of world oil production,
17.6% for gas, and 5.4% for coal18. Such a powerful
energy base made it possible for Russia to supply
energy carriers abroad on a significant scale and,
through energy ties, to strengthen its position in the
system of international relations. Today those times
are passing. The transition to a low-carbon economy
reduces the opportunities for international
cooperation at the expense of fossil fuels. The internal
reserves of economic development are also shrinking.
As a result, Russia's geopolitical potential is
decreasing. The country is losing its competitive
position in the world community, in the formation of
regional economic unions.
Summarizing the above, it should be noted that
the transition to a low-carbon economy reduces the
threats and risks for the world community associated
with environmental degradation, depletion and
uneven distribution of traditional fossil resources.
However, for Russia, the transition to low-carbon
development is a source of new threats and risks for
its economy. The most significant of them include:
- the exhaustion of the export-raw material
model of the development of the Russian
economy in the conditions of unrealized
MMTGE 2022 - I International Conference "Methods, models, technologies for sustainable development: agroclimatic projects and carbon
neutrality", Kadyrov Chechen State University Chechen Republic, Grozny, st. Sher
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innovative growth factors, the loss of its
investment attractiveness;
- contraction of world energy markets, increased
international competition on them;
- strengthening the isolation of Russia in the
world economy, reducing the opportunity to
develop due to the advantages of the
international division of labor;
- the loss of competitiveness of the Russian
economy, the decrease in the profitability of its
energy sector and a number of other sectors that
produce products with a high carbon intensity;
- the fall of the geopolitical potential of Russia.
The decline of its leadership positions in the
formation of regional economic unions.
Reducing Russia's ability to strengthen its
position in the post-Soviet space, in the
European Union and the world community.
To solve these problems, systemic
transformations are required, both in the fuel and
energy complex and in the country's economy as a
whole. The Energy Strategy of the Russian
Federation for the period up to 2035 (ES-2035) could
become, but did not become, the basis for such
transformations (Temnov, 1987).
4 CONCLUSIONS
The main drawback of ES-2035 is that it does not
reflect the key issues of transition to a low-carbon
economy, which requires systemic transformations in
the energy complex and the country's economy. It
does not have a clearly defined goal of phasing out
the use of fossil fuels, and does not show the ways
and mechanisms for the transition to low-carbon
development. In EU-2035, as in previous strategies,
the focus is on increasing the production of fossil
fuels and ensuring a high level of its exports. A
significant adjustment of the goals and objectives set
in ES-2035 is required.
It is necessary to change the role of the state in
regulating economic processes. The formed executive
vertical of power allows the practice of manual
control. Tactical managerial decisions are made at the
very top, and the whole system becomes clumsy. In
order for the management system to become mobile,
tactical decisions must be transferred to a lower level.
At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the role
of the state in strategic level of energy regulation.
Without this, the system is not capable of either
strategic planning or strategic vision. Hence, in
reality, the planning horizon can only be short,
although the development of the fuel and energy
complex requires a long-term vision.
We need systemic transformations in the energy
sector, which include a wide range of issues related to
demonopolization and the creation of a competitive
environment, the liberalization of economic life,
institutional and structural changes aimed at moving
away from the raw material development model, and
the integration of the energy sector into the system of
world economic relations.
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