Modelling of Ecological Development of the Country on the Basis of

Cognitive Maps

Nadiia Shmygol

, Oksana Yelisyeyeva

, Adam Kałowski

, Nataliia Soloviova

and Tеtіana Pulina

Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic" National University, Zaporizhzhia, Zhykovsky str, 64 Ukraine

Oles Honchar Dnipro National University, 49000, Dnipro, Gagarin Aven., 72, Ukraine

University of Social Sciences, 9 Sienkiewicza St., Łódź, Poland

Department of Postgraduate, Zaporizhzhia National University, Zhukovsky street 66, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Pulse Modelling, Cognitive Map.

Abstract: The article substantiates the use of cognitive modeling as a method of situational management, which makes

it possible to describe an object and the laws of its functioning, to develop a mathematical model as close as

possible to a real situation. Situational management involves collecting, accumulating, monitoring

information, analyzing, and modeling situations, choosing the best development scenarios, and graphically

presenting the results obtained. The basis of cognitive modeling is the construction of cognitive maps of the

investigated system. The cognitive model, formally represented as an oriented sign graph, describes expert

knowledge of the laws of development and properties of the analyzed situation and reflects the strengths of

causation and the values of factors in the cognitive map. The paper substantiates the use of simulation

modeling to analyze the situation of the environmental state with respect to further development of the

economic system based on sustainable development. Three possible scenarios of environmental development

to improve the ecological situation in Ukraine are analyzed based on impulse modeling. It has been proven

that the maximum effect can be achieved if the third management scenario is adopted. According to this

scenario, a system of environmental monitoring and environmental insurance should be introduced,

environmental legislation should be improved, alternative energy sources should be used, the systems for

cleaning emissions and discharges should be improved, and waste accumulation should be reduced.

1 INTRODUCTION

In today's pandemic conditions, more than ever,

scientists are paying attention to the environmental

development of countries. Environmental issues play

an important role in everyone's lives. Under

conditions of significant climatic changes can be

noted structural changes in the budgets of countries

around the world, through an increase in the share of

payments for the protection of the environment. The

key expenditure items are the elimination of

pollutants and recycling of waste. Most of the

environmental problems, namely climate change,

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5932-6580

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4907-5700

https://orcid.org/ 0000-0001-7780-3694

https://orcid.org/ 0000-0001-9595-9414

https://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-2672-8281

deterioration of the natural environment, reduction of

biodiversity loss can be attributed to failure to take

into account the external impact of the business

activities on the environment when managing

economic development. To include this impact in

calculations of product collectivities or in planning a

new development strategy for an enterprise, region or

country, researchers suggest that environmental

services, i.e. services provided to docktails, should be

defined as a separate resource that can be depleted

under the condition of non-static use.

Today, there are two approaches to defining

environmental services. On the one hand, it can be

Shmygol, N., Yelisyeyeva, O., Kałowski, A., Soloviova, N. and Pulina, T.

Modelling of Ecological Development of the Country on the Basis of Cognitive Maps.

DOI: 10.5220/0011340500003350

In Proceedings of the 5th International Scientiﬁc Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence (ISC SAI 2022) - Sustainable Development and Global Climate Change, pages 14-24

ISBN: 978-989-758-600-2

said that by emitting greenhouse gases, the industry

uses an environmental service, namely the ability of

the atmosphere to capture greenhouse gases. On the

other hand, these emissions can be considered as a

negative output of the industry.

The system of national payments covers

environmental services related to the use of land,

mineral and energy resources, certain biological and

water resources, provided that there is a cost benefit

to their owner.

Since the change in factor productivity is

measured as the difference between the change in

output and the change in the number of resources

required for its production, the increase in

unaccounted environmental services is reflected in

the calculations as an increase in factor productivity.

Therefore, the direct inclusion of key environmental

services in the empirical analysis will enable a more

accurate identification of economic growth factors

and greening paths. The efficiency of the

environmental sustainability analysis indirectly

depends on the completeness and quality of the

information and methods used. Therefore, the

economic and statistical analysis of the

environmental situation in Ukraine is an urgent task.

2 ACTUAL SCIENTIFIC

RESEARCH AND ISSUES

ANALYSIS AND THE

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

The globalisation of the world economy is increasing

international competition and the strategies of the

leading companies are increasingly linked to

environmental aspects. The current world market can

be characterised by a certain cordon reduction

between the industries, a shorter product life cycle

and an increased focus on environmental issues.

As Kenneth Boulding defines it, prosperity and

progress are measured not by the rate of economic

growth, but by the state of food supplies, acid, water,

and other necessities. It divides the economy into

open and closed. The main focus of sustainable

development scientist considers the maintenance of

reserves and any technological changes that lead to

the maintenance of a given total stock with a reduced

volume of production and spozhivaniya. Another

important contribution to the study of the ecological

status of countries is the Nicolás Georgescu-Regen

Theorem, called "Bioeconomics". According to this

theory, the biologic approach of the economic process

should be taken into account at all times, which fully

reflects the problem of human existence with a

limited supply of available resources, nervously

dispersed and nervously adapted (Giampietro, 2019).

Thus each scientist identifies the inextricable link

between the development of the economy and the

environmental situation, and consequently the

importance of environmental assessment for

determining the quality of life of the population.

T. Kobilinska made a significant contribution to

the methodology of the study of the ecological state

of the country. Her work was devoted to a statistical

assessment of the environmental impact of

agricultural enterprises; The system of indicators of

environmental impacts of agricultural enterprises and

environmental monitoring was developed and

improved in the National Accounting System of

Ukraine (Kobylynska, 2018; Shmygol, 2021).

Statistical modeling and forecasting of socio-

economic development, integrated assessment of

security of old development is proposed in the

research of R. Kulinich (Kulynych, 2018;

Perevozova, 2019). The issues of energy and energy-

economy modelling and forecasting are outlined in

the works of C. Kudry (Kudria, 2015), M. Kulik, O.

Malyarenko, N. Maistrenko (Kulik, 2017).

Ukrainian scientist A. Dejna developed a

conceptual model of statistical support for evaluation

and regulation of energy dependence in Ukraine. He

determined the trends of the main indicators of energy

dependence, potential and perspectives of using

energy from renewable sources in Ukraine (Deina,

2017). P Khazan devoted his research to the

methodology of implementation of renewable energy

sources in the Ukrainian economy and in particular he

developed an integral indicator of assessment of the

development of renewable energy sources and

suggested a methodology for its calculation (Khazan,

2018).

The works of Antonina Sidorova and Olena

Cherenkevich provide a methodological approach to

the assessment of environmental and economic

subsystems for the analysis of their imbalance on the

basis of the method of richly valuable classifikatsii,

The correlation and regression models have been

developed to determine the efficiency of inputs into

environmental protection measures (Sydorova, 2020;

Cherenkevych, 2020).

Due to the difficult ecological situation, depletion

of natural resources and deterioration of the

population's health the issues that give rise to the

creation of effective ecological taxes are of topical

importance. The problems of environmental taxation

in Ukraine and the world have been investigated by

such scientists as Y. Shvets, L. O. Shvets (Shvets,

Modelling of Ecological Development of the Country on the Basis of Cognitive Maps

2017)., O. V. Lega, L. V. Yalovega, T. B. Priydak

(Leha, 2017), K. V. Kanonishena-Kovalenko

(Kanonishena-Kovalenko, 2017)., N. P. Yavorska

(Yavorska, 2018), and many others. These studies

identify the economic and legal essence of the

concept of environmental taxation, peculiarities of the

environmental tax collection, analyze the

international experience of environmental taxation, as

well as identify the ways to reform the environmental

tax in Ukraine.

Giving credit to the importance of the works of the

above authors, it should be emphasized that a low

number of methodological tasks remain insufficiently

resolved. In particular, the methodology of ecological

development management on the basis of the old

development, which would take into account the

destabilizing factors of the environment and the

changing goals of development of the economic

system in accordance with the globalization

processes, requires further research,

3 RESULT AND DISCUSSION

The concept of sustainable development emerged

from the process of combining three main points of

view: economic, social and environmental. That is,

"adopting measures aimed at the optimal use of

limited resources and the use of environmental -

nature-, energy- and materials-saving technologies, at

preserving the stability of social and cultural systems,

at ensuring the integrity of biological and physical

natural systems.

The main goal of old development is the stability

of physical and ecological systems, because

neglecting the needs of ecology will lead to the

degradation of the environment and endanger the

existence of all humanity.

Among the main current areas of environmental

activities are: international standards system, product

branding, environmental management and marketing,

environmental auditing, environmental auditing and

environmental audits.

The problems of economics and ecology, science

at first glance totally different, are intimately

interconnected. An example of this relationship is

presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1: The relationship between economic and

environmental issues.

Thus, there is a close relationship between the

problems that arise in the environmental field and

their impact on economic activity and vice versa.

Business activities that underpin the economy

invariably have an impact on the environment, be it

resource extraction or consumption, atmospheric

emissions, use of natural potential, etc. As a rule, such

activities are often negative.

Ecology (in particular the natural environment) in

turn also affects economic activity. Unsustainable

resource use leads to the depletion of natural

resources, and the pollution of the environment

causes the need for additional costs to reduce the

negative effects.

It should also be noted that, as a result of the

impact of ecology, the economy is divided into the

economics of agriculture and the economics of

natural resources. The first deals with the relationship

between the natural world and the economy. This

jurisdiction covers specific economic issues directly

linked to the pollution of the environment as a result

of economic activity. The other is engaged in research

on the optimal use of natural resources. This could

include, for example, alternative energy and water

use.

Relationship between economic and environmental issues

Rising costs of

storage, industrial

and domestic waste

destruction, waste

disposal and

pollution

disposal

Pollution of

environmental

components

Exacerbation

of the problem of

food security,

rising costs of

production and

land reclamation

Reduction of

agricultural land,

reduction of soil

fertility

Rising prices for

raw materials on the

world market,

reducing the

effectiveness of the

geological state of

production,

increasing costs for

Depletion of

natural resources,

deterioration of

their geological

position

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

For the country to develop in the field of ecology

and ecological security, it is essential that

environmental policies are properly implemented.

The aim of the national environmental policy is to

stabilize and improve the environmental conditions of

Ukraine to achieve the sustainable development of the

state through the creation of legal and institutional

conditions for economic, energy and environmental

security and the improvement of the well-being of the

population.

The basic principles of national environmental

policy are:

Strengthening the role of environmental

management in the Ukrainian governance system in

order to achieve a balance among the three

components of development (economic,

environmental, social), which leads to an orientation

on the priorities of sustainable development;

Taking environmental impacts into account when

making management decisions, when drafting

documents that contain policy and/or policy

frameworks for national, sectoral, regional and local

development;

Cross-sectoral partnership and involvement of the

public in decision-making on the implementation of

environmental policy.

Thus, it can be concluded that an assessment of

the state of the environment is impossible without an

assessment of the state of the economy. The two

concepts are closely linked; consequently, it is

impossible to develop the economy without

developing ecology. This is due to the existence of

certain links between economic and environmental

issues.

The most important condition for the

implementation of the policy of sustainable

development we consider the universal equilibrium

and balance of interests of social progress, We believe

that a comprehensive balance and balance between

the interests of social progress and environmental and

economic development should be achieved at the

highest possible degree of geographical, social,

environmental, economic, production and technical-

technological indicators.

Human interaction with the environment is based

on "natural capital" and "piece capital". According to

universally accepted criteria, natural capital is

comprised of the planet's resources, while piece

capital is everything humanity creates with the use of

the planet's resources. A sustainable economy seeks

to eliminate inequitable relations between nations,

respecting the aspect of sustainability as the

requirements for establishing equitable relations

within a single generation.

In our view, the process of balanced growth of all

parameters and elements of the system to preserve its

integrity, the harmonisation of the development of all

components, taking into account the interests of each

individual person and society as a whole, is the

development of the country.

The problem of imbalanced environmental and

economic development takes priority among the

problems of old economic development. Increase in

the volume of social production, The total increase in

the impact of extensive and intensive factors on the

distribution of material and energy flows between the

economic and ecological subsystems leads to a low

level of adverse reactions of the ecosystem and

imbalances in the consumption and production of

resources.

Moreover, there is a growing threat of a negative

attitude towards natural resources when their use is in

the economic sphere and nature conservation is

traditionally in the non-economic sphere, which does

not allow direct and indirect impacts of economic

activities to be assessed and the results of the

assessment to be adequately incorporated into

practice.

Since the object of economic research in the

context of the concept of sustainable development is

the environmental and economic relations and the

environmental and economic subsystem, there is a

need to develop a methodology for assessing the

imbalance of environmental and economic

development of public administration systems, which

takes into account the basic principles of the

sustainable development strategy.

In economically developed western countries, the

source of primary environmental and economic

information includes data from environmental

accounting, environmental controlling and the

preparation of environmental balance sheets.

The main elements of the content of

environmental information:

Indicators, standards and outputs that describe the

actions taken in the main areas of environmental

protection;

Environmental aspects of the organisation's

activities, including levels of discharges, rebates,

waste disposal, etc;

Financial indicators and data on the organisation's

assets (operating costs, costs of post-war activities,

acquisition of environmental assets, etc.);

The responsibility for environmental accidents;

Information contained in the supplementary

financial statements showing the value of costs

resulting from the impact of the company on the

Modelling of Ecological Development of the Country on the Basis of Cognitive Maps

environment and the impact of the environment on

the organisation.

The first two positions are environmental

accounting, which may also be called statistical

accounting. Standardization in the field of ecology is

beginning to play a significant role in the activities of

national and international standardization

organizations. Increasingly, standards are seen as a

necessary means of regulating relations in the field of

environmental protection and resource use.

To determine the state of the environment, the

indicator of the amount of waste is the main one,

because the pollution of natural environment, in

particular the water environment, is the main problem

for the ecology of the country. In addition, it is

advisable to study the dynamics of the main

environmental and economic indicators of Ukraine

for the period 2014-2020.

Figure 2 shows the dynamics of the number of

inputs in Ukraine for the period 2000-2019.

The most important role in the pollution of water

is played by industrial production waste, i.e. it can be

said that today environmental safety is closely linked

to the economic development of the country. Thus,

having investigated this relationship in the period

2000-2019, it was found that the correlation index of

the indicator of the number of wastes with the GDP

indicator was 0.62.

Figure 2: Dynamics of change in the number of inputs in

Ukraine from 2000 to 2019.

Based on data (State service of statistics of Ukraine, 2022)

provided by the author

At the same time, the correlation index of the

number of incomes indicator with the population

indicator was -0.62, indicating an inverse

relationship.

Disease or health hazards in the population are

closely linked to the volume of industrial production,

the state of contamination of certain natural spheres,

and unsafe technogenic production by industrial

giants, The impact on the planetary climate change,

i.e. a decrease in the ozone layer and warming of the

climate, makes research and improvements in

environmental security one of the most topical and

important issues for each country.

In assessing the extent of environmental

degradation, it is important to take into account the

scale of the impact on human health:

− Global environmental degradation is a

problem for the entire human society, but it is not a

particular problem for a single person;

− Regional environmental pollution is a problem

for the inhabitants of the region, but it is not

necessarily harmful to the health of one particular

person;

− Local environmental pollution - poses a

serious threat to the health of the population of a

particular city/area as a whole as well as to the

individual inhabitants of the area.

Thus, it is easy to see that the dependence of

human health on the polluted air of a particular street

where one lives is greater than on the pollution in the

area in general. Scientific research conducted by the

World Health Organization (WHO) has shown a

strong link between polluted dwellings and the

incidence of prematurity, The study found a strong

association between prenatal obstruction and the

incidence of prematurity and chromosomal disorders

in children, allergic pathologies, anaemia, mental

retardation and behavioural and physical

abnormalities in children. Children living in

ecologically deprived areas show evidence of

congenital conditions, recurrent bronchitis, allergic

diseases, reduced IQ, bronchial asthma,

neuropsychiatric diseases, oncopathology, etc.

Figure 3 shows the dynamics of releases of

pollutants into the atmospheric air in Ukraine for the

period 2014-2020.

Figure 3: Dynamics of the amount of pollutant emissions

into the atmosphere of Ukraine 2014-2020, thousand

tonnes.

Based on data (State service of statistics of Ukarine, 2022)

provided by the author

4276,8

3523,5

3770

3356,6

3300,6

3306,3

3292,3

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

It can be seen that since 2016 there has been a

gradual decrease in this indicator, which has a

positive impact on the environmental condition of the

country and the health of the population.

When analysing the economic situation of a

country, GDP is the main indicator. Many experts still

use GDP as the main indicator of the country's

development and wellbeing (Fig. 4).

Figure 4: GDP dynamics4 of Ukraine 2014-2020, mln

UAH.

Based on data (State service of statistics of Ukarine, 2022)

provided by the author

The main factor determining the standard of living

of the population is the level of longevity, and the

state of the environment inevitably influences this

indicator. The analysis of scientific works and

research on the mentioned problem shows that among

the factors determining the level of morbidity, the

state of the environment takes approximately 20%,

while the dependence on the level of development of

the health care system is only 7-12%. (Khazan,

2018).18-20

It should be noted that there is a correlation r=0.4

between the GDP value and the Average Life Span of

the Population. However, since the correlation is not

significant it is not reasonable to use the GDP value

to assess the development of the economic situation

in the country.

Figure 5: Dynamics of the amount of expenses for the

sphere of environment protection, mln. UAH.

Based on data (State service of statistics of Ukarine, 2022)

provided by the author

In Ukraine since 2015, there has been a dynamic

growth in amounts spent on the protection of the

natural environment (Fig. 5), but if we analyze these

amounts as a percentage of the total state budget, the

values are only about 0.5%.

A negative impact is also caused by growing

inflation, which significantly decreases the amount of

expenses, for example, in 2016 the actual amount was

4,771.6 million UAH (0.72% of the state budget) and

in 2020 - 6636.8 million UAH (0.53% of the state

budget). However, considering the growing inflation

index, the cost of environmental protection in 2020 is

lower than in 2016.

It is also important to note that although the 2020

pandemic had a negative impact on economic

development, especially for Ukraine, but analysts

have identified an improvement in the environmental

situation worldwide, through the COVID-19

pandemic, namely a significant reduction in the

number of contaminants and wastes (Figure 6).

Studying the dynamics of the main indicators of

Ukraine in the field of ecology, it is also important to

consider the volume of utilized waste. Since

analyzing the data from 2014-2019, a significant

increase in the volume of waste generation and,

accordingly, an increase in the volume of recycled

waste can be observed. However, if we look at the

growth rate, the amount of waste recycled in Ukraine

is often lower than the amount produced. In 2020,

only 21% was recycled, while the average recycling

rate in 2014-2020 was 27%.

Figure 6: Dynamics of recycled waste volume 2014-2019,

thousand tonnes.

Based on data (State service of statistics of Ukarine, 2022)

provided by the author

Developing a cohesive picture to manage

Ukraine's environmental situation. Steel growth is not

an arithmetic sum of the steady growth of its

individual components (based on the nature of the

capacity of systems).

The term 'old growth' can be used to define the

criteria for its manifestation:

1586915

1988544

2385367

2981227

3560302

3977198

4194102

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

4053

4771,6

4739,9

5241,2

6316,2

6636,8

2000

4000

6000

8000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

92463,7

84630,3

100056,3

103658,1

108024,1

100524,6

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Modelling of Ecological Development of the Country on the Basis of Cognitive Maps

― Ensuring integrity. Steel development is

made up of components which are already equivalent

at the time of its formation. With the combination of

variable rates of economic growth and one-time

pollution of the environment, steel development

becomes impossible.

― Staleness and equilibrium of the components

of old development. Stability means that despite

continuous changes in the socio-economic system

and its subsystems, some fundamental parameters

remain unchanged (e.g. population life). The

equilibrium of the socio-economic system means the

balancing of individual components to ensure

sustainable development in order to prevent the

collapse of the system and preserve it as a single

whole.

― The level of organization of the socio-

economic system, which depends on the complexity

of its functions and the thoroughness of its structure.

Steel development can be ensured solely by pursuing

a progressive structural-investment policy. This

implies a high level of organization of the socio-

economic system with a significant diversity of

functions, which are performed, and appropriate

structures that contribute to maintaining the

consistency of the system. Economic and

environmental systems are characterized by steady

growth, which is ensured mainly by intensive factors

(including a high level of impact of scientific and

technological progress). For systems with a low level

of organization, socio-economic development is

achieved mainly through extensive factors with a low

level of scientific and technological progress.

In today's world, under conditions of significant

climatic changes, structural changes in the budgets of

countries around the world can be seen, through an

increase in the share of environmental protection

expenditures. The key expenditure items are the

elimination of pollutants and the recycling of waste.

Therefore, it is important to study the management

process and ways of management in this area.

Firstly, it is necessary to define the notion of

environmental protection as well as proper

management. Environmental protection is a set of

state, administrative, legal, economic, political and

social measures aimed at rational use, creation and

preservation of natural resources of land, limiting the

negative impact of human activity on the environment

(Khilchevskyi, 2016; Horal,2021; Zelinska, 2021).

Management can be seen as a goal-oriented impact on

the organized system, which ensures preservation of

its structure and activity goals. (Khilchevskyi, 2016;

Kiv, 2020, Derbentsev, 2020).

One of the promising approaches to the analysis

of dynamical systems is the analysis based on the

cognitive map, which is a model of experts'

knowledge about the laws of development and

properties of the situation, which is analyzed in the

form of elementary semantic categories, which are

connected by relations. The cognitive map can be

presented in the form of an oriented graph. The

vertices of the graph correspond to the factors that

define the situation, the oriented edges correspond to

the cause-and-effect relations between the factors.

Cognitive pictures are not only a means of structuring

and formalizing the situation, but also a tool for its

analysis. Different interpretations of vertices, edges

and valued coefficients on edges lead to development

of different models and methods of their analysis.

(Tkachenko, 2019; Kiv, 2020, Derbentsev, 2020).

Analyze the environmental pressure and

environmental management in Ukraine. On the first

stage we will create a map of the environmental

situation in Ukraine (Fig. 7). The system of indicators

ZZbul

1-13

was developed on the basis of consolidation

of legislative acts, which is presented in Table 1.

Figure 7: Cognitive map of the environmental situation in

Ukraine.

On the cohesive map, the dotted line represents

arcs with an intrinsic value, and the continuous line

represents arcs with an additional value.

Development of environmental management

scenarios on the basis of immutational modelling.

The cognitive modelling methodology is based on the

developed cognitive models to identify possible and

efficient ways of managing the economic system in

order to bring it closer to the target state. In order to

conduct a structural analysis of the cognitive picture

of environmental management, a q-analysis of the

relationship between factors (indicators of

environmental status) and ways to influence them was

conducted.

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

Table 1: Cognitive framework for assessing the environmental situation in Ukraine.

No. n/a

The mindset

of cognition

Explanation:

1 Z

Level of environmental

ressure

2 Z

Doses of narcotic substances to the atmosphere per person

3 Z

Amount of alternative sources of energy in the total amount of

energy used

4 Z

The relationship between woodland creation and timber harvesting

5 Z

The area of the natural reserve fund of the country

6 Z

Proportion of enterprises subject to environmental monitoring out of

the total numbe

7 Z

Number of citizens' appeals against environmental legislation

8 Z

The relationship between the creation and use of secondary raw

materials

9 Z

Proportion of enterprises with environmental insurance as a

ercenta

e of the total numbe

10 Z

Proportion of international innovative projects in the total number of

ects in the child welfare secto

11 Z

Number of sanctions imposed on businesses that exceed the tolerance

limit

12 Z

Volume of accumulated waste

13 Z

Environmental taxation

The problematic situation in the management of

the economic system is presented in the form of an

equilibrium orgraph:

G = < Z, W>, (1)

de Z is the multiplicity of vertices,

i, i

Z, i =1,2,...,K - vertices that are elements of

the system under study; W is the wagon set, w(x

, y

)

is the wagon of each arc.

The arc value can be positive, negative or zero. An

important orgraph in which all the values of w(x

, y

)

are integer-valued is called integer-valued. Thus, any

signed orthography can be represented as a numbered

orthography with w(x

, y

) = 1, if (x

, y

) has a plus

sign, w(x

, y

) = -1, if (x

, y

) has a minus sign, and

w(x

, y

) = 0, if the connection does not exist. The sign

of the closed path of the contour is the complement of

signs of its arcs, in the complement the plus sign is

replaced by +1, the minus sign is replaced by -1. In

mathematical modelling of complex systems, it is

necessary to find a compromise between the accuracy

of modelling results and the possibility of obtaining

the detailed information needed to build the model.

Signs and valid orgraphs can be used in the

development of simple mathematical models of

complex systems and in the analysis of the results,

which are obtained on the basis of minimal

information.

To analyze the cognitive map, we present it as a

matrix of relations Aa

according to the formula:

]

kk

, a

= w(x

, y

). (2)

As a result of the analysis of the q-correlation of

environmental status indicators and methods of

influence on them, a symmetric complex was created

according to the formula:

(Y, R) = {σ

(11)

, σ

(6)

, σ

(9)

, σ, σ

(3)

(8)

, σ

(12)

(2)

, σ

(4)

, σ

(5)

, σ

(7)

(10)

(13)

, σ

(1)

} (3)

The analysis of the results of the symptom

analysis and its meaningful interpretation of the

situation under study have led to the following

conclusions. The environmental management system

has a high level of q-correlation, which indicates a

high level of sensitivity of the system to internal and

external parameter changes. Calculation of the link

values of the complex K

(Y, R) showed indirect

links between the tops of the cognitive picture. Thus,

for example, active public participation, Z

, has only

an indirect impact on environmental pressure, Z

through the system of environmental monitoring, Z

improvement and implementation of environmental

legislation, Z

, and waste accumulation, Z

The analysis of the symplectic complex

eccentricities of K

(Y, R) has shown that the richly

symplectic σ

(11)

, σ

(6)

, σ

(9)

, which were created in

accordance with the vertices Z

, Z

, have high

values of eccentricities, which indicates both their

greatest importance for the complex as a whole, and

the importance of each individual simplex as Z

as a joint line.

Impulse modelling was carried out to determine

the effectiveness of management action to improve

the environmental situation in Ukraine.

Modelling of Ecological Development of the Country on the Basis of Cognitive Maps

To obtain a more accurate prediction, the graph

was converted into a weighted graph based on the

results of the expert analysis.

The selection of tops to which impulses were

applied was made based on Ukrainian legislation and

the results of q-value analysis. Four possible

scenarios of managerial action were calculated. The

vector of initial values was calculated as a relative

value considering the benchmark value, the norm by

the formula:

V(0) = (v

(0), v

(0),...,v

(0), (4)

The values corresponding to each vertex and the

impulses at time t, t = {0,1,2,3}, were calculated by

formulae (5) and (6).



+=+

jijii

(t))px,w(y(t)v1)(tv

, (5)

where w(x

) = 0 if the arc (x

) is absent. If the

arc from y

to x

has value w = w(x

) and the value

of vertex y

increases by k units at time t, then the

value of vertex x

at time t+1 increases by kw⊕ units.

Since v

(t+1) - v

(t) = p

(t+1), the equation (5)

takes the form:

.(t))px,w(y1)(tp

jiji



(6)

Analysis of the results of impulse modeling of the

environmental state control has shown that the

maximum effect can be achieved by influencing the

vertices with the maximum value of eccentricity. For

example, the first scenario involves an impulse to Z

, Z

, i.e. a management action must be taken to

improve the environmental monitoring system,

implement environmental insurance and improve and

enforce environmental legislation.

The result of management under the first scenario

is a decrease in environmental pressure from 1 to

0.09.

Scenario 4 differs from Scenario 1 in that the

management action included recycling of

accumulated waste, which cannot be avoided in the

scenario. As a result, the effect of the management

action decreased by 0.14 basis units. To identify the

most effective scenario a graph was created based on

the resulting indicator which reflects the

environmental pressure. (Fig. 8).

Figure 8: Forecast value of environmental pressure for 3

periods according to scenarios.

Figure 8 shows that the maximum effect can be

achieved by adopting the third management scenario,

i.e. by introducing a system of environmental

monitoring throughout the entire country. An

environmental monitoring system has been in place

for three years in the Dnipropetrovsk region, one of

the most polluted in Ukraine. In real time, the

pollution of the air, the Dnieper water, etc. is being

investigated. Implementation of environmental

insurance (insurance of civil liability for damage to

the state, life, health and property of natural persons,

legal entities and natural persons - entrepreneurs as a

result of violation of legislation on the protection of

the natural environment.) According to Article 49 of

the Insurance Law adopted on 18.11.2021, which will

be in force from 01.01.24 (Law of Ukraine, 2021).

Alternative sources of energy, improved systems of

waste and discounts treatment and reduced waste

accumulation should also be implemented. This can

be achieved, first of all at the state level, by means of

ecological taxes, using foreign experience

(Yelisieieva, 2018). Under such conditions, the

ecosystem completely renews the resources used in

the economic activity process, as evidenced by the

high value of the indicator of environmental pressure.

4 CONCLUSIONS

The most important condition for the implementation

of a sustainable development policy at the level of

macrosystems is a comprehensive balance and

balance of the interests of social progress, ecology,

and economy with the maximum possible number of

-0,5

0,5

1,5

-0,5 0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5

Scenario 1: q6=0,1, 99 = 0,1, q11 = 0,1

Scenario 2: q4=0,1, q7= 0,1, q11 = 0,1

Scenario 3: q3 = 0,1,q6 =0,1, q8=0,1,q9=0,1,

q11 = 0,1, q12 = -0,1

Scenario 4:

6=0,1, 99 = 0,1,

11 = 0,1,

12 =

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

geographical, social, environmental, economic,

production, and technical and technological

indicators. The article substantiates the use of

cognitive modeling as a method of situational

management, which allows you to describe the object

and the laws of its operation, to develop a

mathematical model as close as possible to the real

situation. Situational management involves the

collection, accumulation, monitoring of information,

situation analysis, modeling of situations, selection of

the best development scenarios, graphical

presentation of the results. The basis of cognitive

modeling is the construction of cognitive maps of the

system under study. The cognitive model, which is

formally represented as a directed sign graph, is a

model for describing experts' knowledge about the

laws of development and properties of the analyzed

situation, and also reflects the strength of cause-and-

effect relationships and the values of factors on a

cognitive map.

The paper substantiates the use of simulation

modeling to analyze the situation of the ecological

state with respect to the further development of the

economic system based on sustainable development.

The study of the results of simplicial analysis and

its meaningful interpretation of the situation under

study, allowed us to draw the following conclusions.

Environmental management systems have a high

level of q-connectivity, which indicates a high degree

of system sensitivity to internal and external changes

in parameters. The calculation of the values of the

connectivity of the complex KX (Y, R) showed the

presence of indirect connections between the vertices

of the cognitive map.

To improve the ecological situation in Ukraine on

the basis of impulse modeling, three possible

scenarios of ecological development are analyzed. It

has been proven that the maximum effect can be

achieved if the third management scenario is adopted.

According to this scenario, a system of environmental

monitoring and environmental insurance should be

introduced, environmental legislation should be

improved, alternative energy sources should be used,

the systems for cleaning emissions and discharges

should be improved, and waste accumulation should

be reduced. The negative value of the indicator of the

ecological load indicates that the ecosystem fully

restores the resources consumed in the process of

human life and multiplies them.

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ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE