Desire to Have Children Assessed from Socioeconomic Context Post

Disaster in Palu

Abd. Rahman

1,3

, Sri Rum Giyarsih

2,*

and Sigit Herumurti B. S.

Graduate School of Doctor Population, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia

Population Study Program, Graduate School, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia

Publich Health Study Program, Universitas Tadulako, Palu 94148, Indonesia

Keywords: Socioeconomic, Desire to Have Children.

Abstract: An earthquake measuring 7.4 on the richter scale rocked the central part of Indonesia in Palu, Sigi, and

Donggala on September 28, 2018. The earthquake that was accompanied by the tsunami and liquefaction

caused 4,340 fatalities people including children. This study aims to look at the socio-economic role (age,

education, occupation, income and ethnicity) on the mother's desire to have children after the disaster in Palu

City. This research was conducted in Palu and the participants in this study were 382 mothers. The sampling

technique uses propositional stratified random sampling. Data analysis using linear regression analysis.

Research result shows that socioeconomic factors (age, education, occupation, income, and ethnicity)

simultaneously contribute to the desire of mothers to have children, and age become the most dominant factor

in a role. The conclusion of this study shows that the age group at risk of pregnancy and childbirth, high

education, have a job, have worked have an increased desire to have children. The results of this study are

expected to be a reference or guide in predicting fertility and the desire to have children in areas affected by

natural disasters, especially earthquakes, tsunamis and liquefaction, viewed from the socio-economic context.

1 INTRODUCTION

Geographical impacts can create instability, risk, and

uncertainty in the population process in communities

in an area. One of the geographical effects that occur

is natural disasters. Natural disasters are caused by

hydro-meteorological, climatological, geophysical,

and biological phenomena which adversely affect the

affected natural environment. The effect is in terms of

casualties and material damage. High-intensity

external assistance is needed in the event of natural

disasters (e.g., floods, landslides, storms and

earthquakes, tsunamis including liquefaction) (Mata-

Lima et al., 2013).

An earthquake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale

shook the central part of Indonesia, to be precise in

the cities of Palu, Sigi, and Donggala on September

28, 2018, which occurred at 18.02 WITA which was

accompanied by a tsunami and the emergence of new

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0579-9478

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4369-5466

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6821-6364

Corresponding author

phenomenon, namely liquefaction or land subsidence

due to the density of soil volume. Liquefaction,

known as moving land, has buried many residents and

their homes, such as in Perumnas Balaroa, Petobo

Palu Village, and Jono Oge Village, Sigi Regency.

This disaster caused 4,340 fatalities.

Disasters on a large scale caused many casualties,

including children. Women who have lost their

children or died tend to change their children to

certain social groups such as extended families or

ethnic groups. Previous studies have documented

shifts in infertility after earthquakes, hurricanes,

famine, economic crises, terrorist attacks, wars, and

genocide (Finlay, 2009). According to Mason, before

the demographic transition, the decision to give birth

was based on groups and communities, which tended

to occur through marriage time and intensity. There is

a shift where the decision to give birth is based on

individuals and families by looking more at the

Rahman, A., Giyarsih, S. and B. S., S.

Desire to Have Children Assessed from Socioeconomic Context Post Disaster in Palu.

DOI: 10.5220/0010742600003112

In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Emerging Issues in Humanity Studies and Social Sciences (ICE-HUMS 2021), pages 19-24

ISBN: 978-989-758-604-0

family’s concrete conditions than accepted social

norms (Reher, 2011).

Child mortality has a positive relationship with

higher birth choices. The risk of child mortality and

women's bargaining power plays an essential role in

selecting birth for women in Ghana (Novignon et al.,

2019). Women with higher bargaining power tend to

prefer smaller numbers of children than women with

lower bargaining power. Likewise, there was an

increase in childbirth after the Gujarat earthquake;

this change give birth was driven by the condition of

women who experienced the death of a child (or death

in the family). Also, there a reduction in birth spacing

(too close birth spacing) between uneducated ethnic

groups and Muslim women (Nandi et al., 2018).

Another study conducted (Davis, 2017) showed a

higher rate of post-disaster births in cities with higher

rainfall in the period after Hurricane Mitch. However,

births return to average among the affected areas four

to six years after the hurricane.

In Aceh, with a death toll of 170,000 people, the

tsunami disaster experienced increased births caused

by two groups of women. First, mothers who lost their

children to the tsunami were significantly more likely

to give birth after the tsunami than mothers whose

children survived. These births accounted for about

13% of the overall increase in giving birth due to the

tsunami. Second, where the local area's mortality rate

is higher, women who had not given birth before the

disaster were also significantly more likely to give

birth after the disaster than the same women in the

community with low mortality from the tsunami

(Frankenberg et al., 2015). The increase in deliveries

due to disasters is inseparable from socio-economic

factors; In Coale's theory, it explains three conditions

that affect birth in marriage, namely (i) the social

context consciously allows birth planning; (ii)

availability of information on effective means of birth

control; and (iii) clear economic benefits of fertility

control. In specific contexts such as disasters, socio-

economic conditions can influence birth decisions

(Wei et al., 2018).

Socio-economic development has a positive

influence on reproductive health in the birth process.

Consequently, to examine the independent effects of

natural disasters on women's reproductive health,

controlling for socio-economic impacts is essential

(Bradshaw, 2004). Socio-economy is a measure of an

individual's position in the social order hierarchy. The

three related indicators are household income,

education and employment. Other measures include

neighborhood income, family structure, race /

ethnicity and accumulated assets or wealth. Socio-

economic status is a consistent and reliable predictor

of health inequality, including in the determination of

birth decisions (Seabrook, 2015). Economic and

environmental instability can also influence birth

changes (Lin, 2010).

This study differs from several previous studies in

which research has focused on a catastrophic impact

on fertility and the desire to have children. Our

research focuses on the effects of three disasters at

once, namely earthquake, tsunami, and liquefaction,

to know the extent of the relationship or socio-

economic role (age, education, occupation, income,

and ethnicity) on mother's wishes. The expected

contribution of this research is to get an overview of

the fertility level and the mother's desire to have

children after the disaster, which will later be used as

a reference or guideline in population policy.

2 METHOD

Conducted this research in Palu. Participants in this

study may be 382 mothers who fall into the inclusion

criteria, namely fertile age couples (PUS) and

mothers affected by natural disasters

(earthquake/tsunami /liquefaction). The sampling

technique used is proportional stratified random

sampling. Before collecting the data, the researcher

recommends a research permit to the Central

Sulawesi Provincial Government through the One-

Stop Investment Service and Integrated Services.

After getting the recommendation, the researcher then

carried out the data collection process. All mothers

were informed about the purpose of this study and

how to complete the questionnaire. After all, mothers

understand the meaning of the research and how to

fill out the questionnaire, the mother can immediately

fill out the questionnaire. Data analysis used linear

regression analysis to examine the relationship

between the independent and dependent variables and

how much socioeconomic variables (age, education,

occupation, income, and ethnicity) could predict the

dependent variable and see the dependent variable's

predictor contribution.

3 RESULT AND DISCUSSION

A total of 382 respondents were studied, most of the

age group >35 years as much as 50.3% compared to

the age group <20 years and the age group 20-35

years although not much different. Most of the

respondents had a high school education level of

42.9%. On average, 75.1% of respondents do not

ICE-HUMS 2021 - International Conference on Emerging Issues in Humanity Studies and Social Sciences

have a job, and this also affects their income, where

most of their income is not suitable, namely 79.6% of

respondents or below the average minimum wage

(UMR). Meanwhile, the largest ethnic group in this

study was the original ethnic group (Kaili) at 55%.

Can see detail in table 1 below:

Table 1: Frequency distribution of socio-economic

characteristics and desires having children in post-disaster

mothers.

Variable n %

Age

• <20 years

• 20-35 years

• > 35 years

5 (1.3)

185 (48.4)

192 (50.3)

Education

• Never went to school

• Did not graduate from elementary

school

• graduated from elementary school

• graduated from junior high school

• graduated from high school

• College

0 (0)

4 (1)

78 (20.4)

87 (22.8)

164 (42.9)

49 (12.8)

Profession

• Does not work

• Wor

287 (75.1)

95 (24.9)

Income

• Not corresponding

• Corresponding

304 (79.6)

78 (20.4)

Ethnicity

• Original

• Comer

210 (55)

172 (45)

Desire to have children

• Want

• Not

234 (61.3)

148 (38.7)

Based on the tests carried out on the F value, I was

that the calculated F value was 8,010, and the

significance value was 0,000 or <0.05, even less than

0.01. meaning that the variables age, education,

occupation, income and ethnicity simultaneously

contributed to the desire to have children in post-

disaster mothers. Meanwhile the variable coefficient

model can be seen in Table 2 below:

Table 2: Variable coefficient model.

Variable

Desire to have children

Beta t si

e 0.253 4.959 0.000

Education 0.142 2.117 0.035

Profession 0.107 2.055 0.041

Income 0.062 0.940 0.348

Ethnicit

0.062 1.250 0.212

Based on the coefficient model obtained in table

2, the t value of the age variable is 4.95, and the

significance value is 0.000 or less than 0.05, which

means that age significantly plays a role in the desire

to have children. The educational variable obtained a

value of 2.117 and a significance value of 0.035 less

than 0.05, which means that education plays a role in

the desire to have children. For the work variable, the

t value is 2,055 with a significance of 0.041, more

diminutive than 0.05, meaning that work plays a role

in the desire to have children. The t value of the

income variable is 0.940. The significance value of

0.348 is more significant than 0.05, meaning that

income does not play a role in the desire to have

children. For the ethnic variable, the t value is 1.250,

and the significance value is 0.212, which is greater

than 0.05, meaning that the ethnic variable does not

play a role in the desire to have children. The beta test

results or the absolute number of the three variables

found that the variable that had the most dominant

position in the desire to have children was the variable

age of 0.253 or 25.3%.

This paper reports a study on the socio-economic

role of wanting to have children in the aftermath of

the Palu City disaster. Study results do base on the F

test of 8,010 and a significance value of 0,000,

indicating that age, education, occupation, income,

and ethnicity play a role in mothers' desire to have

children after the disaster. Age plays a more dominant

position in the desire to have children.

Based on table 2, maternal age has a significant

role in the desire to have children after the disaster in

Palu. This study is consistent with Davis' research

(2017), where young women of reproductive age

mainly contribute to childbearing in the first years

after Hurricane Mitch. In addition, it was also found

that women (couples of childbearing age) who have a

well-established economy contribute less to births

than women who belong to a weak economy (Davis,

2017).

The results showed that the maternal age group

was 20-35 years and age > 35 years, after the disaster

in Palu, which contributed significantly to the

mother's desire to have children. The same research

results were also found in India, where mothers aged

20-30 years experienced a relatively high increase in

the birth rate of 3.1% after the earthquake. In

addition, births also increased in younger women (≤

20 years) by 2.3% and older women (> 30 years) by

1.1%. For the period 2000 – 2004, the estimated TFR

(Total Fertility Rate) data is 2.18 and 2.74 in areas

with and without a tsunami disaster. After the

tsunami, the birth rate by zone changed, with

mortality in the community, there was an increasing

Desire to Have Children Assessed from Socioeconomic Context Post Disaster in Palu

birth especially for women aged 20–34 years, and the

overall figures for 2006–2009 were TFRs of 2.67 and

2.52, respectively (Nobles et al., 2015).

In table 2, the study results show that a mother's

education plays a role in the desire to have children

after the disaster in Palu. The results obtained in Palu

are closely related to research on the effects of the

great earthquake in India. The study found those

uneducated women or did not complete their

education experienced an increase in childbirth. In

contrast, women with higher education experienced a

decrease in birth rates. However, something different

was found in Palu. Although the number of women

with higher education had a relatively low desire for

children, the proportion of women with higher

education wanted more children than those who did

not want to have children (Mason, 2017). Education

creates choices and exerts a strong influence on

women in society (Buyinza & Hisali, 2014). Most

education at the community level is associated with

lower births and longer birth intervals (Axinn &

Barber, 2001).

The study results in table 2 show that work plays

a role or is related to the desire to have children after

the disaster in Palu. The crippled economy and

disrupted working conditions resulting from the

disaster forced families and women to work hard to

meet their daily needs who did not only depend on

life support from the government. The results of this

study are in line with research conducted by Glavin et

al. (2020), which shows strong evidence of a strong

relationship between women's work and childbirth

decisions, where women's social location is thought

to play an essential role in shaping their reactions to

work (Glavin et al., 2020). Besides that, there are

apparent biological differences in the choice to give

birth to children; women are considered more

responsible for most of the upbringing of children,

especially in the early years of a child's life compared

to men (Ball & Daly, 2012).

Women's employment status affects their fertility;

women who do not work tend to have more children

than those who work. Data shows that 63.9% of

women of childbearing age who work and live in

villages do not have children (Indraswari & Yuhan,

2017). Interestingly enough, in Palu City, of the 49

working women mostly want children; this confirms

that although several studies have shown that working

women tend not to want children, the effects of

disasters change women's decisions to have children.

The study results in table 2 show that income does

not play a role in the desire of mothers to have

children after the disaster in Palu. The study results

are following the findings of research conducted by

Somer (2016), which explains that an increase in

family income affects the decision to have children

both in terms of number and time of birth. This is

based on observations made from the 1970s to the

1990s in Washington, during which time the number

of births continued to decline, and most of them

occurred in people with good income levels

(Sommer, 2016). But unlike what happened in

Turkey, about 28% of women with high incomes

desire to have more children after the disaster. This

also confirms that in disaster conditions or after a

disaster, women with good economic conditions also

desire to have children, or births can occur because of

the increased welfare status of women (Ocalan et al.,

2018).

Table 2 also shows that ethnicity does not play a

role in a mother's desire to have children in Palu.

There is a contrast to other studies. After the

earthquake among caste, minority groups

experienced the most significant increase in delivery

rate (2.8% increase), and deliveries among

underdeveloped caste women also increased by 0.9%

(Nandi et al., 2018). Another study shows different

fertility outcomes among ethnic groups, with reduced

chances of pregnancy for Asians and a reduced

likelihood of live births for all groups than

Caucasians (Butts & Seifer, 2010) . Likewise, a study

by Seltzer & Nobles (2017) explains that after

Hurricane Katrina, the population of women of

reproductive age decreased by 61% in the same time

period, from around 123,000 in 2005 to 48,000 in

2006. In 2006, the total birth rate (TFR) was lower

before the disaster; for black women, the TFR

decreased from 2.0 to 1.7. In contrast, TFR increased

among white women and increased substantially

among Hispanic women.

4 CONCLUSIONS

Natural disasters (earthquake, tsunami, and

liquefaction) in Palu caused massive casualties and

infrastructure damage, which affected the joints of

people's lives. The socio-economic impact affects the

population's concept, including fertility, which is the

main factor causing high population growth. The

research result on mothers' desire to have children

after the disaster by looking at socio-economic factors

(age, education, occupation, income, and ethnicity)

together and simultaneously play a role in the desire

to have children, and age is the most dominant factor

playing a role.

The results of this study are expected to be a

reference or guide in predicting fertility and the desire

ICE-HUMS 2021 - International Conference on Emerging Issues in Humanity Studies and Social Sciences

to have children in areas affected by disasters,

especially earthquakes, tsunamis, and liquefaction

seen from the socio-economic context so that if they

occur in other places with the same type of disaster,

they can find out the description of mothers who have

the same kind of disaster. Desire to have more

children. The findings of this study can be generalized

by considering some methodological limitations. To

find out more fully and in depth, it is better for the

next research to use a qualitative approach by

involving policy makers, especially the government,

health service workers (doctors and midwives), the

role of families and husbands and other sectors. In

addition, other variables can also be used to find out

more about why after the disaster the desire to have

children increases.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We want to convey our gratitude to Palu City's

government through the Investment Service and One

Stop Services of Central Sulawesi Province as the

agency authorized to issue research

recommendations.

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