Impact of Hazardous Natural Phenomena on Crime in the

Azov-Black Sea and Caspian Regions

Elena Chuklina

SSC RAS, 41, Chekhov ave., Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Keywords: Vietnam, natural phenomena, natural disasters, crime, Southern Federal District

Abstract: The article is devoted to the study of the impact of natural hazards on the quantitative and qualitative

characteristics of crime in the coastal regions of the Azov, Black and Caspian Seas. The main research method

is the method of analysis of statistical data of the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation,

regional and municipal internal affairs bodies of Russia. An additional research method was the analysis of

sentences in cases of crimes committed during or immediately after a natural disaster in the region. Based on

the results of the analysis of the data, it was concluded that the influence of natural hazards on the dynamics

and structure of crime in the South of Russia is insignificant, which is associated with the scale of the

phenomena and the mobilization of state bodies. At the same time, it was established that natural disasters

can act as a conducive condition to the committing of a specific crime.

1 INTRODUCTION

One of the main directions of criminological science

is the study of the determination of crime, the

influence of certain factors on the qualitative and

quantitative characteristics of crime. These factors are

diverse in their content - social and economic,

psychological, organizational and managerial, etc.

(Nomokonov, 2017). Research into the influence of

natural factors on the quantitative and qualitative

indicators of crime is gaining relevance (Weil, 2020).

This is due, firstly, to the fact that natural disasters

entail negative consequences in the form of damage

or destruction of movable and immovable property,

harm to physical and mental health and even death of

a person. Thus, according to the Security Council of

the Russian Federation, the annual economic damage

caused by abnormal hydrometeorological phenomena

is about 60 billion rubles (Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2020).

Secondly, crimes committed during or immediately

after natural disasters are characterized by an

increased public danger, which is due to the

circumstances in which the criminal act was

committed. The increased public danger of the act and

of the offender himself is that the person deliberately

uses circumstances that facilitate the implementation

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8313-3199

of criminal intent and/or hide the traces of a crime (for

example, seizes property from a helpless person;

enters a damaged home or store with the intent of

stealing). That is why the use of the circumstances of

a natural disaster is considered by the criminal

legislation as an aggravating circumstance for

criminal liability - clause "л" of part 1 of Article 63

of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation

"Committing a crime in a state of emergency, natural

or other public disasters, as well as during mass riots."

The obligation to take this circumstance into account

when imposing punishment is indicated in the

Resolution of the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the

USSR dated December 23, 1988, No. 17 "On the

Consideration by Courts of Cases Related to Crimes

Committed in the Context of a Natural or Other

Public Disasters." Thirdly, such studies will help

assess the effectiveness of the administration of the

affected region and law enforcement agencies in the

prevention and direct suppression of crimes in a

natural emergency.

Chuklina, E.

Impact of Hazardous Natural Phenomena on Crime in the Azov-Black Sea and Caspian Regions.

DOI: 10.5220/0010662000003224

In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientiﬁc Forum on Jurisprudence (WFLAW 2021), pages 66-71

ISBN: 978-989-758-598-2

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

As a rule, the influence of any factors on the

parameters of crime is monitored according to

statistical data. This study uses the official statistics

of the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian

Federation and the internal affairs bodies on the

number of registered crimes for the period from 2012

to 2020.

3 RESEARCH RESULTS

An analysis of the statistics of registered crime in the

regions affected by natural hazards proved the

absence of the influence of such phenomena on the

dynamics and structure of crime in the coastal regions

of the Azov, Black, and Caspian Seas, which is due

to three factors: 1) negative consequences of natural

phenomena in the form of human casualties and

material damage is not as large enough to push

citizens to commit a crime as, for example, during the

1988 earthquake in Spitak; 2) there is a set of

measures of state support in Russia, which allows the

affected population to cope with material problems

for the first time after a natural disaster; 3) during a

natural disaster, the forces and means of the

Emergencies Ministry, the police and even the Armed

Forces of Russia are mobilized.

4 DISCUSSIONS

Studies of the role of natural phenomena in the

determination of crime began long ago. Back in the

19th century, the influence of meteorological and

climatic factors on quantitative changes in crime was

considered by C. Lombroso in his work "Criminal

Man" (Lombroso, 2018). Scientists from different

countries were engaged in identifying the correlation

between meteorological conditions and the number of

violent crimes committed by persons with mental

disabilities, and the peak of such studies come down

in the 20s of the XX century

Modern criminology has also raised the issue of

the impact of natural disasters on crime in the affected

region. As a result of the research, three main aspects

of the impact of natural disasters on crime have been

identified. Firstly, there is a sudden increase in the

total number of detected crimes in the period

immediately after the natural disaster in the affected

region, while maintaining a high level of crime

latency, reaching about 70-80% (Sahakyan, 2011).

Secondly, crimes committed in the context of a

natural disaster have an increased public danger.

Thirdly, natural and social disasters are reflected in

the structure of crime in the affected region. Thus,

T.A. Zorina, based on statistics of initiated cases in

the regions affected by natural and man-made

disasters, revealed the following ratio of crimes by

type: 35% - crimes against a person, of which most

are murders; 26% - crimes against public order and

public safety, mainly violations of traffic rules and

vehicle operation; 20% - crimes against state

authority, mostly expressed as negligence; 19% are

crimes in the economic area, among which theft is

dominant (Zorina, 2015).

However, these features are inherent precisely in

large-scale natural disasters such as the earthquake in

Spitak, which occurred on December 7, 1988, as a

result of which, according to official data, 25

thousand people died, 140 thousand were injured, 514

thousand people lost their homes (Tumanyan, 1997).

The impact of hazardous natural phenomena

typical for the coastal zones of the Azov, Black, and

Caspian Seas on the dynamics and structure of crime

in the affected regions has not been specifically

studied. At the same time, these regions are of

particular importance for the economic development

of the country, being resort and international transit

zones (Goryushina, 2020).

Therefore, the study of the influence of natural

factors on the dynamics and structure of crime in

these regions is of relevance, scientific, and applied

significance.

If we look at the statistical data of the General

Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation on the

number of detected crimes in the Krasnodar Territory,

the following changes in the dynamics of crime

become obvious: 1) in July and August 2012, i.e. in

the period immediately after the flood, there is a slight

increase in the number of crimes in comparison with

the month preceding the natural disaster - by 5% and

8.3%, respectively; 2) October 2014 shew an 11.7%

increase in crime compared to September, at the end

of which there was a flood; 3) at the end of October

2018, coastal areas were flooded, the number of

detected crimes that month increased by 19%, but in

November there was a decline of 38%; 4) on July 21,

2019, torrential rains flooded more than 50 yards,

road sections and houses, the increase in crime this

month compared to the previous one was 15.7%, and

in August - 18.7%; 5) in the spring and at the end of

August 2020, wildfires raged in the region, however,

the increase in detected crime is recorded in March

and then it decreases, although the fires continued in

April; in August, the number of crimes increased by

Impact of Hazardous Natural Phenomena on Crime in the Azov-Black Sea and Caspian Regions

16.4% compared to July, and in September - by

10.7%.

Based on the abovementioned statistics, the

number of registered crimes actually increases in a 4-

week period immediately after a natural hazard. In the

next month after the natural disaster, an increase in

crime is recorded only in some cases.

However, a graphical representation of the

dynamics of detected crimes in the Krasnodar

Territory in the years when natural disasters occurred

(Figure 1) leads to interesting conclusions.

Figure 1: Dynamics of crime in the Krasnodar Territory.

This graph demonstrates the regularity in the

dynamics of crime in 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, and

2020, regardless of the month in which a dangerous

natural phenomenon occurred: a slight increase in

March, almost imperceptible fluctuations until July, a

slight increase again in August and a sudden increase

of crime in October with the same rapid reduction in

detected crimes in November.

It can be assumed that the jumps in the revealed

crime are partly due to the beginning and end of the

seasons of work of illegal labor migrants.

Therefore, hazardous natural phenomena do not

have a significant effect on the dynamics of crime in

the Krasnodar Territory.

This conclusion is also supported by the data of

the territorial bodies of the Ministry of Internal

Affairs of Russia. Thus, according to the Main

Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the

Krasnodar Territory, the criminal situation in the

region even improved in 2012 compared to 2011

(Report of the Head of the Main Directorate of the

Ministry of Internal Affairs, 2012). In the Tuapsinsky

District, which suffered the most from torrential rains

in October 2018, a 7% decrease in registered crimes

was recorded in 2018 compared to 2017 (Information

and analytical note, 2018).

A similar dynamics of crime is shown in the

Rostov Region, which is predominantly characterized

by such dangerous natural phenomena as torrential

rains, spring floods, and hurricane winds (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Dynamics of crime in the Rostov Region.

The Astrakhan Region and the Republic of

Dagestan are located in the coastal zone of the

Caspian Sea, but recently, the danger for these

territories is not in sea phenomena, but torrential

rains.

In Dagestan, dangerous emergencies caused by

flooding mainly occur in May and June (Razumov et

al., 2018). Based on statistical data, the region

recorded a decline in the crime rate in May, and an

increase only in June.

In mid-November 2020, torrential rains flooded

the Dakhadaevsky, Derbentsky, Kizlyarsky,

Novolaksky, Suleiman-Stalsky districts of the

Republic of Dagestan, as well as the Caspian urban

district and Makhachkala. In general, the crime rate

in the republic in November and December 2020

decreased compared to the previous month. The

crime rate in the affected municipalities themselves

during this period changed in different ways. For

example, according to the data of the territorial

Departments of Internal Affairs in the

Dakhadayevsky district in 2020 compared to 2019,

there was a decrease in the number of crimes by 18%,

in the Derbentsky district - by 11%, in Makhachkala,

on the contrary, there was an increase in crime by

23.8% (Reports of the Heads of the Ministry of

Internal Affairs, 2020).

Torrential rains that caused flooding in the

Astrakhan Region were observed in May-June 2008,

April-May 2011, and July 2012. According to Rosstat

data for the first half of 2008, 1,747 crimes were

registered in the region per 100 thousand people,

which is 1% less than in the same period of the

previous year; in the first half of 2011, 1233 crimes

were registered per 100 thousand people in the region,

which is 12.9% less than in the same period of the

previous year. In July 2012, the total number of

WFLAW 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FORUM ON JURISPRUDENCE

detected crimes decreased by 10% compared to June,

in August the decline continued.

There were no serious natural hazards in

Kalmykia, after the 1995 flood, with the exception of

a drought in the summer of 2020. At the same time,

the natural disaster in 1995 did not affect the

dynamics of crime and the number of crimes

remained at a moderately low level: according to

Rosstat data, there were 1,432 crimes per 100

thousand people. In August and September of 2020,

there was an increase in crime relative to July by 8.3%

and 16.2%, respectively.

At the same time, according to the prosecutor's

office of the Republic of Kalmykia, the increase in the

total number of crimes in 2020 was due to an increase

in the number of mercenary crimes committed using

information and communication technologies, and

the criminals themselves are often geographically

located in another region. It is interesting to note that

in the districts where a drought emergency was

declared - Iki-Burulsky, Lagansky, Chernozemelsky,

Priyutnensky, and Tselinny - a decrease in crime was

recorded compared to 2019 (Prosecutor's Office of

the Republic of Kalmykia, 2020).

Thus, the analysis of the statistical indicators of

the detected crime proved the absence of the

influence of hazardous natural phenomena on the

dynamics of crime in the coastal regions of the Azov,

Black, and Caspian Seas.

We believe that this circumstance is due to three

reasons. Firstly, the negative consequences of natural

phenomena in the form of human casualties and

material damage is not as large enough to push

citizens to commit a crime as, for example, during the

1988 earthquake in Spitak.

Secondly, there is a set of measures of state

support in Russia, which allows the affected

population to cope with material problems in the early

days after a natural disaster. Thus, for example, the

Decree of the President of the Russian Federation

dated July 17, 2012, No. 1015 "On Measures to

Eliminate the Consequences of a Natural Disaster -

Flood in the Krasnodar Territory" instructed to pay

the families of victims one-time financial assistance

of 1 million rubles both from the federal budget and

from the regional budget, i.e. 2 million rubles.

Finally, during a natural disaster, the forces and

means of the Emergencies Ministry, the police and

even the armed forces of Russia are mobilized. In

particular, in Krymsk in 2012, 275 police officers,

100 servicemen of internal troops, 65 representatives

of the Cossacks, 36 units of official vehicles were

involved in stabilizing the situation in areas affected

by flash floods; the police provided security for the

regional post office, which received funds to pay

compensation to the victims; to prevent theft, police

officers surveyed 4,506 households; the conditions of

storage of weapons and ammunition were checked at

583 owners of weapons, 8 units of hunting firearms

were handed over for temporary storage (Chuklina,

2013).

Natural disasters also did not have an impact on

the structure of crime in the studied regions. Thus, in

the Apsheronsky and Tuapsinsky districts most

affected by the floods on October 24-25, 2018, there

is a decrease in certain categories of crimes: in the

Apsheronsky district in October 2018 compared to

2017, the number of economic crimes decreased by

21.3%, in November - by 20.8%, and in December -

by 17%; in the Tuapsinsky district there was a

decrease in fraud by 30%, robberies - by 31%,

counterfeiting - by 27%. The number of murders and

attempted murders, robberies, assaults related to

robbery, larceny, and thefts of vehicles also decreased

(Information and analytical notes, 2018).

The most difficult situation with wildfires that

raged in August 2020 in the Krasnodar Territory was

in Anapa (Kubanskie Novosti, 2020). However, this

circumstance did not negatively affect the structure of

crime: the number of serious and very serious crimes,

as well as the facts of intended infliction of grievous

bodily harm - by 22.7%, assaults related to robbery -

by 18.2%, thefts - by 19.9 %, including from

apartments - by 52.7% and from cars - by 14%

(Information and analytical note, 2020).

At the same time, the analysis of judicial practice

made it possible to conclude that dangerous natural

phenomena can cause the commission of certain

crimes.

In criminology, crimes related to natural and

social disasters are divided into two groups: 1) crimes

that create conditions for the occurrence of a

catastrophe as a result of the violation of rules and

regulations (negligence, environmental crimes,

violation of safety requirements); 2) crimes

committed in an environment of natural or public

disaster (murder, violations of traffic rules and

vehicle operation, theft) (Zorina, 2015).

With regard to natural disasters, it is more correct

to talk about the criminal failure to prevent negative

consequences due to a careless or negligent attitude

to one's duties, since it is impossible to cause a natural

disaster by the action or inaction of persons.

In the coastal regions of the Azov, Black, and

Caspian Seas, this group of crimes is represented by

negligence (Article 293 of the Criminal Code of the

Russian Federation), i.e. non-fulfillment or improper

performance of official duties, resulting in the

Impact of Hazardous Natural Phenomena on Crime in the Azov-Black Sea and Caspian Regions

infliction of large/extremely large damage,

significant violation of the rights of citizens and

organizations or the legitimate interests of society and

the state, the infliction of grievous bodily harm or

death of one or more persons.

The second group of crimes includes criminal

offenses committed during or immediately after a

natural hazard. When characterizing these crimes, it

is important to pay attention to the form of guilt -

intent or negligence.

An analysis of judicial practice has shown that

intentional crimes caused by dangerous natural

phenomena are represented by crimes against the

person (intentional infliction of grievous bodily harm

- Article 111 of the Criminal Code of the Russian

Federation), against property (theft - Article 158 of

the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, fraud -

Article 159 of the Criminal Code of the Russian

Federation), against state authority (forgery by an

official - Article 292 of the Criminal Code of the

Russian Federation, forgery and use of forged

documents - Article 327 of the Criminal Code of the

Russian Federation).

Crimes against the person caused by dangerous

natural phenomena are extremely rare in judicial

practice. A distinctive feature of such criminal acts

can be called the stressful state of the perpetrators in

connection with the situation of a natural disaster or

its consequences.

When committing thefts, dangerous natural

phenomena act as a condition that facilitates the

commission of a crime and/or hiding traces. For

example, a fence collapsed by a hurricane wind and

broken glass windows facilitate illegal entry into

someone else's home.

Fraud, forgery by an official, and the use of forged

documents are committed to obtain compensation

payments or avoid material liability under the guise

of force majeure - a natural disaster.

Abnormal weather conditions often contribute to

negligent crime, creating a dangerous situation that

entails negative consequences if there is insufficient

care or negligence of the person in charge - for

example, the sinking of a ship in a storm.

5 CONCLUSIONS

Thus, based on the analysis of statistics and judicial

practice of the general jurisdiction courts of the

Krasnodar Territory, the Rostov Region, the Republic

of Dagestan, the Astrakhan Region, and the Republic

of Kalmykia, two main conclusions can be drawn: 1.

hazardous natural phenomena do not affect the

dynamics of registered crimes and quantitative

changes in the structure of crime in the affected area;

2. 2 types of crimes related to dangerous natural

phenomena should be distinguished in the structure of

the affected region: 1. criminal inaction, expressed in

the failure to prevent the negative consequences of

natural emergencies (negligence), 2. crimes

committed during or with the use of a natural disaster

environment (intentional crime - the infliction of

grievous bodily harm, theft, fraud, forgery by an

official, the use of forged documents and negligent

crime - the provision of services that do not meet

safety requirements, violation of traffic safety rules

and transport operation, road traffic offense).

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The publication was prepared with the financial

support of the RFBR grant No. 18-05-80043

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Impact of Hazardous Natural Phenomena on Crime in the Azov-Black Sea and Caspian Regions