The Sustainability Naval Base Model using System Dynamic Methods

Okol Sri Suharyo

1∗

, Avando Bastari

, Harun Bekti Ariyoko1

and Indra Agustian

Indonesian Naval Technology College (Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Angkatan Laut, STTAL) Bumimoro-Morokrembangan,

Surabaya 60178, Indonesia

Keywords:

Naval base, sustainability, system dynamic model

Abstract:

Naval Base located in the state working area play signiﬁcant roles as the deployment forces positions as well as

the home-bases having 5 (ﬁve) R: Rest, Refresh, Refuel, Repair and Replenishment. Some spot determination

models have been greatly developed but have some weaknesses such as in the term of location sustainability

approach as a system dynamics among the interacted aspects. The change of the system dynamics situation

has caused some Bases undergoing the degradation threat. It means that the Bases do not function as the

fundamental one. This research is aimed to ﬁnd out a Sustainability Naval Base Model Using System Dynamic

Method from the mutual interacted Technical, Economical and Political aspects. In the technical aspect, it

will be viewed from the variables of the base performance (hydro-oceanography, channel depth, logistics

supply capability of materials and personnel). In the economic aspect, it is observed from the economic

development variables of maritime industries inﬂuencing the availability of the base areas, in the political

aspect, it is watched from the susceptibility of the base area. The ﬁnal result of this research is by ﬁnding out

the Sustainability of Naval Base Model using System Dynamic Method.

1 INTRODUCTION

Operations at sea by naval vessels and naval bases

as supporters have strategic value for the existence

of national sovereignty and maritime security in the

territory of Indonesia’s national jurisdiction. Secu-

rity disturbances and sea crime in the form of timber

theft and theft of ﬁsh by foreign ships and theft of

other natural resources requires the presence of Patrol

Boats and the existence of Naval Base for safeguard-

ing the entire Indonesian archipelago with an area of

sea reaching 3.9 million km2. The abundance of nat-

ural resources in the sea is a potential entry of viola-

tions and threats (Suharyo et al., 2017).

The Naval Chief of Staff in the Navy’s 2024 Pos-

ture book has launched the development of the Naval

Base to support national defense and security opera-

tions. Naval Base Development has become an ab-

solute and indispensable necessity, given the threats

and crimes from both inside and outside the Republic

of Indonesia such as illegal logging, illegal ﬁshing,

piracy and piracy and violations of the territory of the

Republic of Indonesia by ship- neighboring country

ships are increasingly happening. The Republic of In-

donesia state ﬂeet command has carried out a base to

support daily operations at sea presence.

Naval Base Development requires enormous re-

sources. Therefore we need a calculation and strate-

gic consideration to decide the development of a base

location. The purpose of this analysis and consid-

eration is to avoid the degradation of Naval Base as

a result of changes and system dynamics that de-

velop and change, both due to natural factors and

non-natural factors, such as politics and economics

(Suharyo et al., 2017).

Based on studies conducted on the selection of

naval base locations (Suharyo et al., 2017), it can

be said that there are several important factors in the

Naval Base Development process, which can be in-

ﬂuenced by 3 (three) important pillars namely Poli-

tics, Technical and Economic. From a political stand-

point, it can be seen from the location of the strategic

base position in the region with the level of foreign /

foreign threat and regional vulnerability, in terms of

technical review of the natural and coastal oceano-

graphic conditions at the Naval Base, the ability of

port and dock facilities to support warships while in

terms of the Economy, the cost of developing the base

and the operational costs incurred if a location is cho-

sen as a Naval Military Base.

Each location of the Naval Military Base will have

characteristics and inﬂuences from different political,

technical and economic criteria in supporting the ter-

ritorial integrity of the Republic of Indonesia, so it is

176

Suharyo, O., Bastari, A., Ariyoko, H. and Agustian, I.

The Sustainability Naval Base Model using System Dynamic Methods.

DOI: 10.5220/0008545001760184

In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Marine Technology (SENTA 2018), pages 176-184

ISBN: 978-989-758-436-7

necessary to conduct a study and optimization analy-

sis to select the location of naval base development by

considering the baseline degradation factors and also

factors sustainability of a naval base.

Naval Base Degradation is a condition in which

the Base no longer functions as a base as a Naval

Base. Naval Base no longer serves as a re-supply

point for warships, no longer serves as a guard for

the stability of the country’s integration and no longer

serves as an antidote to threats from other countries

by sea and coast (Suharyo et al., 2017).

Some of the causes of the degradation of the base

are the uncontrolled growth of the maritime business

which led to the shifting or closing of naval base land

(Gunawan et al., 2018) for example, the Surabaya

Naval Base which was increasingly pressed for by the

maritime business in the Surabaya port. Furthermore,

the construction of the Merah Putih bridge in Am-

bon covered the rate of Navy ships heading to Am-

bon Naval Base. Technical factors such as sedimenta-

tion, sea tides, and other hydro-oceanographic condi-

tions also contributed to the increase in the degrada-

tion value of the Naval Base.

The threat of degradation Naval Base is the ba-

sis for researchers about the concept of Naval Base

Sustainability or Sustainability. Naval Base Sustain-

ability is a condition where the base can function as

a base for a naval base that continues to grow and be

used as a sustainable base. The Naval Base will con-

tinue to function as a reprocessing point for warships,

function as a guard for the stability of the country’s in-

tegration and serve as a deterrent to threats from other

countries by sea and coast (Martinez-moyano et al.,

2008)

Considering the very complex problems faced in

assessing the sustainability of Navy bases, it is neces-

sary to study and trace deeper data to create a repre-

sentative model. This model certainly must be able to

accommodate the entire scope of the problem in the

development of the base, especially the sustainability

of the base, so that this model is expected to be able

to do a valuation approach to the sustainability of the

base.

The choice of the location of the Naval Base is not

only for the current conditions but also must consider

the location Sustainability factors due to changes in

system dynamics, so that the dynamic system model

needs to be developed in this problem. The dynamic

system is a method used to describe, model, and sim-

ulate a dynamic system from time to time constantly

changing (Forrester, 1997)

This study aims to design and build a more com-

plete and comprehensive problem-solving model on

the location of a strategic naval base to be devel-

oped by analyzing the existence and sustainability of

naval base locations based on consideration of various

kinds and complexity of important factors that inﬂu-

ence them. The development of the site selection op-

timization model is emphasized on a sustainable lo-

cation assessment, because optimization is not only

for the current condition or when the model is formed

but also must be considered in the future the system

sustainability from the chosen location.

In this study, the author will develop an analy-

sis technique for assessing the sustainability of Naval

Base locations with the development of the System

Dynamic concept. The concept of this method, in

general, has been widely used by researchers and sci-

entists, but the use for integrated assessment of Naval

Base from aspects that inﬂuence it never been done.

The author tries to make the development and mod-

iﬁcation of the method into an intact model that is

systematic and appropriate in the assessment of the

location of the sustainability of the Naval Base which

is expected to be a renewal in this study.

2 MATERIAL AND METHODS

2.1 Modelling Approach with System

Dynamic

The system dynamics approach is a combination of

theory, method, and philosophy to analyze the behav-

ior of a dynamic system by building a generic model

from symptom identiﬁcation to producing a problem

structure for simulation evaluation / policy analysis

in making decisions, both for step evaluation strate-

gic steps that have been taken in generating system

performance, as well as for evaluation / analysis of

alternative steps that need to be taken in achieving the

desired goals going forward (Forrester, 1997). The

decision can take the form of various aspects, includ-

ing ”allocation, location and distribution”, ”regulation

and deregulation”, ”stimulation and response” whose

essence is system sustainability.

According to Sweeney and Sterman (2000). There

are six interacting problem-solving steps that form

loops in the dynamic system methodology, namely :

a. Problem identiﬁcation and deﬁnition

b. System conceptualization

c. Model formulation

d. Model simulation and validation

e. Policy analysis and improvement

f. Policy implementation

The Sustainability Naval Base Model using System Dynamic Methods

177

2.2 The Priciples of System Dynamics

System Dynamics Methodology, basically using

causal relationships in developing a complex system

model, as a basis for recognizing and understanding

the dynamic behavior of the system. In other words,

the use of system dynamics methodology is empha-

sized more on the goals of increasing our understand-

ing of how system behavior arises from its structure

(Chen et al., 2006). Problems that can be precisely

modeled using a dynamic methodology are systems

that have dynamic properties (change with time); the

phenomenal structure contains at least one feedback

structure (Nair and Rodrigues, 2013).

According to Sweeney and Sterman (2000) the

principles for creating dynamic models with the char-

acteristics described above are as follows :

• The desired situation and the actual situation must

be distinguished in the model

• The existence of a stock structure and ﬂow in real

life must be represented in the model

• Conceptually different streams, the model must be

distinguished

• The only information that is truly available to ac-

tors in the system must be used in modeling the

decision

• The structure of decision-making rules in the

model must be appropriate (suitable) with man-

agerial practices (Tsolakis and Srai, 2017).

2.3 The Objectives of System Dynamics

System Dynamic Model is not only made to provide

forecasting or prediction process, but further than that

dynamic system is intended to understand the char-

acteristics and behavior of internal and external pro-

cess mechanisms that occur in a particular system

(Sundarakani et al., 2014). Dynamic systems are

very effective to use on systems that require a good

level of data management. With the ﬂexibility that

is owned, this will help in the process of model for-

mulation, model boundary determination, model val-

idation, policy analysis, and the application of the

model(Yousseﬁ et al., 2011).

According to Forrester (1997), the usefulness of

the Dynamic System model is to simulate policy eval-

uation, both for evaluating strategic steps that have

been taken (ex-post) in generating system perfor-

mance, as well as for future evaluations (ex-ante)

namely alternative steps what needs to be taken in

achieving the goal.

2.4 Model Simulation of System

Dynamics

Simulation is the imitation of the behavior of a symp-

tom or process. The simulation aims to understand

the symptoms or process, analyze and forecast the be-

havior of the symptoms or processes. Simulations are

carried out through several stages including concept

compilation, modeling, simulation, and validation of

simulation results. The simulation stages sequentially

starting in the ﬁrst phase of the simulation are drafting

concepts(Chang et al., 2008). Symptoms or processes

to be imitated need to be understood, among others,

by determining the elements that play a role in the

phenomenon or process. These elements interact, re-

late to, and depend on and unite in carrying out activ-

ities. From the elements and their relationship, ideas

or concepts can be arranged regarding the symptoms

or processes that will be simulated (Tsolakis and Srai,

2017).

3 RESULT AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Variable Identiﬁcation

Based on observations and understanding of the Naval

Base Sustainability system, all variables that have an

inﬂuence on the system can be identiﬁed, which can

be categorized into 3 (three) main aspects of the Sus-

tainability System of Naval Forecasting, namely :

• Technical Aspects

• Economic Aspect

• Political Aspects

Every major aspect of the Navy Base Sustainabil-

ity system has variables or criteria that are intercon-

nected and interact in the system as shown in Figure 1.

Grand Model Diagram Sustainability of Naval Base

on the main aspects of the interaction model of Naval

Base Sustainability System.

In this study, furthermore speciﬁcally identiﬁed

several variables in the Technical, Economic and Po-

litical Aspects. This variable is the result of identiﬁ-

cation on conceptual understanding of the Navy Base

sustainability system. Each variable in aspect has a

signiﬁcant role and has a reciprocal relationship with

one another (Suharyo et al., 2017).

Based on in-depth interviews and questionnaires

with the experts, there are several variables that in-

ﬂuence the political, technical and economic aspects.

These signiﬁcant variables are the result of brain-

storming with the expert. These variables can be

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178

Table 1: Technical Aspects Variable Identiﬁcation

Technical Aspects Variable :

a. Technical Facility

b. Docking

c. Supply of water

d. Supply of fuel

e. Supply of logistics Personnel

f. Geo-Technical

g. Bathymetry

h. The velocity of sea waves

i. Geology

j. Tidal

k. Sedimentation

l. Hydro-Oceanography

m. Presence of KRI

Table 2: Economic Aspects Variable Identiﬁcation

Technical Aspects Variable :

a. Technical Facility

b. Docking

c. Supply of water

d. Supply of fuel

e. Supply of logistics Personnel

f. Geo-Technical

g. Bathymetry

h. The velocity of sea waves

i. Geology

j. Tidal

k. Sedimentation

l. Hydro-Oceanography

m. Presence of KRI

shown in Table 1. Technical Aspects Identiﬁcation,

Table 2. Economic Aspects Identiﬁcation and Table

3. Political Aspects Identiﬁcation, according to the

following table:

Each variable in the Technical, Economic and Po-

litical aspects has variables that are interconnected

and form interactions in the Naval Base Sustainability

System.

Table 3: Political Aspects Variable Identiﬁcation

Technical Aspects Variable :

a. Technical Facility

b. Docking

c. Supply of water

d. Supply of fuel

e. Supply of logistics Personnel

f. Geo-Technical

g. Bathymetry

h. The velocity of sea waves

i. Geology

j. Tidal

k. Sedimentation

l. Hydro-Oceanography

m. Presence of KRI

Table 4: Naval Base Sustainability Index

Idx. of Sustainability Idx. Conversion Strategic Mean

Very Low 1.00 - 2.99 Alert

Low 3.00 - 4.99 Warning

Medium 5.00 - 6.99 Moderate

High 7.00 - 8.99 Sustainable

Very High 9.00 – 10.00 Establish

Figure 1: Grand Model Diagram Sustainability of Naval

Base

3.2 Naval Base Sustainability Index

Each variable in the Naval Base Sustainability Sys-

tem is assessed and scored (ranked) on the system

dynamic model, namely: (1) Very Low, (2) Low, (3)

Medium, (4) High and (5) Very High by using mea-

sured parameters.

The Naval base sustainability index is obtained

from the results of the questionnaire to the Navy ex-

perts and in-depth interviews with the Commander of

the Naval Base unit. The naval base sustainability

index serves to show the sustainability value of the

naval base, based on the conversion index and strate-

gic meaning, namely: Alert, Warning, Moderate, Sus-

tainable and Establish.

Naval Base Sustainability Index can be shown as

follows :

3.3 The Grand Model and Formulation

THE FORMULATION

SUSTAINABILITY OF NAVAL BASE:

SUSTAINABILITY\_OF\_NAVAL\_BASE(t) =

SUSTAINABILITY\_OF\_NAVAL\_BASE(t - dt)

+ (Value\_Change) * dt

INIT SUSTAINABILITY\_OF\_NAVAL\_BASE = 4

INFLOWS:

The Sustainability Naval Base Model using System Dynamic Methods

179

Figure 2: Stock Flow Diagram Sustainability of Naval Base

Figure 3: Stock Flow Diagram - Sub Model of Technical

Aspects

Value\_Change = ((POLITICS\_:\__Strategic

_Region. Vulnerability\_Base\_area+

ECONOMY\_:\_\_\_Industrial\_Development.

Land\_Availability+TECHNICAL\_:\_\_

Performance\_of\_NavBase.

Technical\_Performance\_\_of\_NavBAse)/3)

-SUSTAINABILITY\_OF\_NAVAL\_BASE

3.4 Sub Model of Technical Aspects

Stock and Flow Diagram

THE FORMULATION

TECHNICAL : Performance of NavBase:

Number_of_visits_KRI(t) = Number_of_

visits_KRI(t - dt) + (Visits_change) * dt

INIT Number_of_visits_KRI = 10

INFLOWS:

Visits_change = Round((Number_of_

visits_KRI*Assignment_of_KRI))

Sedimentation(t) = Sedimentation(t - dt)+

(Sedimentation__Change) * dt

INIT Sedimentation = 4

INFLOWS:

Sedimentation__Change =

Sedimentation*Reduction_of_sedimentation

_by_the_government

Technical_Performance__of_NavBAse(t) =

Technical_Performance__of_NavBAse(t - dt)

+(Change_of_Value) * dt

INIT Technical_Performance__of_NavBAse=4

INFLOWS:

Change_of_Value = (Geo_Technical__of_

Navbase+Technical_Facility_of_Navbase)/2

-Technical_Performance__of_NavBAse

Assignment_of_KRI=(Technical_Performance

_of_NavBAse+POLITICS_:_Strategic_Region.

Change_faction_Base_area_vulnerability)/2

Bathymetri = random(4, 5, 1)

Docking = random(6, 7, 1)

Geology = random(5, 6, 1)

Geo_Technical__of_Navbase =(Geology+

Hidro_oceanography+Sedimentation)/3

Hidro_oceanography =

(Bathymetri+Velocity_of_Sea_Wave+Tidal)/3

KRI_visit_rate_at_the_Naval_Base=

IF TIME=0 then 0.12 else

(Number_of_visits_KRI-History

(Number_of_visits_KRI, time-1))/

Number_of_visits_KRI

Reduction_of_sedimentation_

by_the_government = 0.04

Supply_of_Fuel = random(8, 9, 1)

Supply_of_Water = random(8, 9, 1)

Technical_Facility_of_Navbase =

(100*Supply_of_logistics__personnel+

Technical_Supply__of_KRI)/2

Technical_Supply__of_KRI = (Docking+

Supply_of_Water+Supply_of_Fuel)/3

Tidal = random(3, 4, 1)

Velocity_of_Sea_Wave = random(3, 4, 1)

Supply_of_logistics__personnel =

GRAPH(ECONOMY_:___Industrial_Development.

Fraction_GRDP_growth)

(0.00,0.015),(0.1,0.035),(0.2,0.065),

(0.3,0.115),(0.4,0.26),(0.5,0.37),

(0.6,0.645),(0.7,0.765),(0.8,0.89),

(0.9,0.925),(1,0.965)

3.5 Sub Model of Economic Aspects

Stock and Flow Diagram

THE FORMULATION

ECONOMY : Industrial Development:

GRDP_industrial_sector(t) = GRDP_

industrial_sector(t - dt) + (GRDP_

changes_Industry) * dt

INIT GRDP_industrial_sector=520457423.42

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Figure 4: Stock Flow Diagram-Sub Model of Economic As-

pects

INFLOWS:

GRDP_changes_Industry = (GRDP_industrial_

sector*Change_faction_GRDP_of_

the_industrial_sector)

GRDP_of__other__sectors(t) = GRDP_of_

_other__sectors(t - dt) + (GRDP_changes_

other_sector) * dt

INIT GRDP_of_other_sectors=548235203.21

INFLOWS:

GRDP_changes_other_sector =

GRDP_of__other__sectors*Proportion_of_

GRDP_changes_other_sectors

Land_Availability(t)=Land_Availability

(t-dt)+(Change_Value) * dt

INIT Land_Availability = 5

INFLOWS:

Change_Value = (Land_Capacity/Land_Use)-

Land_Availability

Land_Use(t) = Land_Use(t - dt) +

(Land_Use_Change) * dt

INIT Land_Use = 6

INFLOWS:

Land_Use_Change = (Land_Use*Change_

faction_land_area)

Business__Licensing = random(5, 7, 1)

Fraction_GRDP_growth=IF TIME=0 then 0.103

else(Total_GRDP-HISTORY(Total_GRDP,time-

1))/Total_GRDP

Industrial__attractiveness=0.15*Business

__Licensing+0.3*Physical_

_Infrastructure+0.4*Macro_Economic+0.15*

Labor

Labor = 0.6*Labor_Availibilty+0.4*

POLITICS_:__Strategic_Region.Fraction_

HR_value

Labor_Availibilty = random(6,7,1)

Land_Capacity = 19.50

Physical__Infrastructure =

(Infrastructure_of__Land_Use+

Transportation__Infrastructure)/2

Proportion_of_GRDP_changes_other_sectors=

RANDOM(0.14, 0.17,1)

Total_GRDP = GRDP_of__other__sectors+

GRDP_industrial_sector

Change_faction_GRDP_of_the_industrial_

sector=GRAPH(Industrial__attractiveness)

(0.00, 0.015), (0.1, 0.035), (0.2, 0.06),

(0.3, 0.105), (0.4, 0.1), (0.5, 0.135),

(0.6, 0.13), (0.7, 0.15), (0.8, 0.17),

(0.9, 0.195), (1, 0.24)

Change_faction_land_area =

GRAPH(Industrial__attractiveness)

(0.00, 0.00), (0.1, 0.001), (0.2, 0.001),

(0.3, 0.002), (0.4, 0.002), (0.5, 0.003),

(0.6, 0.006), (0.7, 0.007), (0.8, 0.007),

(0.9, 0.008), (1, 0.009)

Infrastructure_of__Land_Use =

GRAPH(Land_Availability)

(0.00, 0.135), (0.1, 0.24), (0.2, 0.335),

(0.3, 0.425), (0.4, 0.525), (0.5, 0.56),

(0.6, 0.6), (0.7, 0.68), (0.8, 0.76),

(0.9, 0.86), (1, 0.93)

Macro_Economic=

GRAPH(Fraction_GRDP_growth)

(0.00,0.015),(0.05,0.0575),(0.1,0.0775),

(0.15, 0.0975),(0.2, 0.11),(0.25, 0.118),

(0.3, 0.145),(0.35, 0.168),(0.4, 0.208),

(0.45, 0.36),(0.5, 0.42)

Transportation__Infrastructure =

GRAPH(TECHNICAL_:_Performance_of_NavBase.

Geo_Technical__of_Navbase)

(0.00, 0.13), (0.1, 0.175), (0.2, 0.225),

(0.3, 0.245), (0.4, 0.28), (0.5, 0.315),

(0.6, 0.36), (0.7, 0.405), (0.8, 0.45),

(0.9, 0.695), (1, 0.855)

3.6 Sub Model of Political Aspects

Stock and Flow Diagram

THE FORMULATION

POLITICS : Strategic Region:

Sea_Crime(t) = Sea_Crime(t - dt) +

Sea_Crime__Changes) * dt

INIT Sea_Crime = 4

INFLOWS:

Sea_Crime__Changes = (Sea_Crime+Illegal_

Fishing+Illegal_Logging+Foreign_vessel_

_violations)*Fraction_crime_in_the_sea

The Sustainability Naval Base Model using System Dynamic Methods

181

Figure 5: Stock Flow Diagram -Sub Model of Political As-

pects

Vulnerability_Base_area(t) =

Vulnerability_Base_area(t - dt) +

(Vulnerability_Base_area_changes) * dt

INIT Vulnerability_Base_area = 3.5

INFLOWS:

Vulnerability_Base_area_changes =

((Sea_Crime+Land_Crime+Regional_Index

_Strategic_economy)/3)-Vulnerability_

Base_area+1Change_faction_Base_area

_vulnerability = IF TIME=0 then 0.12

else (Vulnerability_Base_area-

History(Vulnerability_Base_area,

time-1))/Vulnerability_Base_area

Community__Conflict = random(4, 5, 1)

Foreign_vessel_violations=random(4,5,1)

Fraction_HR_value = 0.04

Illegal_Fishing = random(4,5,1)

Illegal_Logging = random(5, 6, 1)

Land_Crime = (Disintegration__Territory+

Community_Conflict+Violation_

Borderline)/3

Violation_Borderline = random(7, 8, 1)

Disintegration__Territory =

GRAPH(Fraction_HR_value)

(0.00, 0.97), (0.1, 0.75), (0.2, 0.62),

(0.3, 0.515), (0.4, 0.43), (0.5, 0.355),

(0.6, 0.27), (0.7, 0.21), (0.8, 0.135),

(0.9, 0.115), (1, 0.075)

Fraction_crime_in_the_sea = GRAPH

(TECHNICAL_:__Performance_of_NavBase.

KRI_visit_rate_at_the_Naval_Base)

(0.00, 0.302), (0.1, 0.19), (0.2, 0.133),

(0.3, 0.0875),(0.4, 0.06),(0.5, 0.0425),

(0.6, 0.03), (0.7, 0.0125), (0.8, 0.01),

(0.9, 0.005), (1, 0.0025)

Regional_Index_Strategic_economy =

GRAPH(ECONOMY_:___Industrial_Development.

Macro_Economic)

(0.00, 0.08), (0.1, 0.13), (0.2, 0.185),

(0.3, 0.26), (0.4, 0.37), (0.5, 0.45),

(0.6, 0.495), (0.7, 0.525), (0.8, 0.575),

(0.9, 0.655), (1, 0.995)

3.7 Model Simulation the Assessment of

Naval Base Sustainability

Based on the model development, Sustainability

Naval Base is then measured, which is a measure-

ment of sustainability from every aspect (technical,

economic and political). The results are then aggre-

gated into Naval Base Sustainability as a whole / to-

tality. Based on this dimension Sustainability Naval

Base is the resultant and the overall aggregation of

sustainability of each aspect that has been measured

based on sub-sub aspects of technical, economic and

political. The following picture is the Naval Base Sus-

tainability Value as a result of running from modeling.

Figure 6: Assessment of Technical Aspect Naval Base

Figure 6 shows an assessment of the sub-aspects

of the technical aspects carried out by simulations on

Figure 7: Assessment of Economic Aspect Naval Base

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182

the sub models that have been compiled. From the

graph, it can be analyzed that the value of base tech-

nical performance is strongly inﬂuenced by the con-

dition of technical facilities and geotechnical condi-

tions. The relationship between the variables is the

relationship of the system dynamics over the 30-year

dimension.

Figure 7 shows an assessment of sub-models of

economic aspects carried out by carrying out simu-

lations on the sub-models that have been compiled.

From the graph, it can be analyzed that the value of

base land availability is strongly inﬂuenced by land

use conditions and industrial sector conditions, the

higher the value of the two variables, the lower the

value of the availability of base land. The relation-

ship between the variables is the relationship of the

system dynamics over the 30-year dimension.

Figure 8 shows the assessment on the sub-model

of political aspects that is carried out by carrying out

simulations on the sub-models that have been com-

piled. From the graph, it can be analyzed that the

strategic value of the base area is strongly inﬂuenced

by the vulnerability of the area and the condition of

sea crime, the higher the value of the two variables,

the higher the strategic value of the base area. The re-

lationship between the variables is the relationship of

the system dynamics over the 30-year dimension.

Figure 8: Assessment of Politics Aspect Naval Base

Figure 9 shows an assessment of the Sustainabil-

ity Naval Base Grand model carried out by carrying

out simulations on the main models that have been

compiled. From the graph, it can be analyzed that

the value of Sustainability Naval Base is strongly in-

ﬂuenced by the conditions of the technical, economic

and political aspects that occur at the location of the

naval base. The relationship between the variables is

the relationship of the system dynamics between all

variables over the 30-year dimension.

Based on the analysis of the calculation results

presented in all of the images, the results are obtained

in the form of the value of all base aspects and the

value of the base sustainability which is the value of

Figure 9: A Assessment of Sustainability Naval Base (Total

3 Aspects)

integration between aspects for the 30-year time di-

mension, which includes the following:

a. Technical aspects of Naval Base: 7.24 (Sustain-

able) b. Value of economic aspects of Naval Base:

2.51 (Alert) c. Value of the Naval Base political as-

pect: 6.54 (Moderate) d. Naval Base’s sustainabil-

ity value which is the integration value of all aspects,

Naval Base Sustainability Value: 5.31 (Moderate)

4 CONCLUSION

In this study, a sustainability model for naval bases

was completed. This model serves to make an ap-

proach in measuring the sustainability of a naval base.

The sustainability of a naval base is an absolute mat-

ter that must be considered in the selection of naval

bases because elections are not only for now but are

also used for the future.

In this study, obtained a measurement value of

naval base sustainability that is inﬂuenced by 3 (three)

main aspects that interact with each other, namely:

Technical, Economic and Political Aspects. Technical

aspects represent naval base performance conditions

in terms of technical and logistical support to war-

ships. Economic aspects represent the conditions of

maritime industry development that can inﬂuence and

shift the availability of naval base land. Furthermore,

the political aspect represents the strategic value of

the base region which is inﬂuenced by the number

of crime in the sea and territorial development of the

naval maritime area.

Naval base sustainability is a dynamic condition

of a base that represents the sustainability of the base

in accordance with its functions in supporting the de-

fense and security of the Republic of Indonesia’s na-

tional sea territory.

The Sustainability Naval Base Model using System Dynamic Methods

183

5 FUTURE WORK

The output in this study is limited to the preparation

of the Naval Base Sustainability Model so that this re-

search can be continued and can be further developed

based on the existing models that have been devel-

oped. The development of the next model is a model

that can be used to design policy scenarios, in order

to get an effective anticipation policy for various pos-

sibilities that can occur in the sustainability of naval

bases in the future. The scenario that will be carried

out is based on conditions that allow it to be controlled

by stakeholders/policymakers of the Navy. In addi-

tion, the scenario is also determined based on param-

eters that have a high effect on system performance by

using key variables in the model. This scenario serves

to increase the sustainability value of the naval base.

This will be developed again in the next research.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors greatly acknowledge the support from

Indonesian Naval Technology College STTAL

Surabaya Indonesia for providing the necessary

resources to carry out this research work. The authors

are also grateful to the anonymous reviewers and

editorial board for their many insightful comments,

which have signiﬁcantly improved this article.

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