Iran Nuclear Deal: The Role of Iranian Media and Public Opinion

R. Dicky Johar Pribadi and Annisa Pratamasari

Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Airlangga

Keywords: Level of Analysis, Foreign Policy, Iran, Nuclear Deal, Hassan Rouhani, Media, Public Opinion.

Abstract: Level of analysis is one of the strategies that offered in the research methodologies to analyze the

phenomenons in International Relations, including the study of foreign policy analysis. Then, one of some

level of analysis is the role of media and public opinion. In this article, the author tries to apply the level of

analysis with the role of media and public opinion to analyze Iran’s foreign policy under Hassan Rouhani’s

regime regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or Nuclear Deal. Nuclear installation in Iran itself

has been accused by international, espescially Western countries, as unsafe and non-transparent

development. Iran then disclaimed and revealed that the development of nuclear in Iran is for peaceful

purpose or not for nuclear weapons. As the result, there is so many international economic sanctions against

Iran which then causing the domestic economic to be weak. Public opinion is then shaped by the mass

media to encourage Rouhani’s regime to struggle for nuclear agreement internationally. Thus, the sanctions

would be lifted soon. Rouhani itself succeed to take a decision on Nuclear Iran Deal in order to keep the

constituents and his team supporters.

1 INTRODUCTION

In essence, foreign policy analysis is one of the

major studies in International Relations. To

understand foreign policy , the author borrowed

Deborah Gerner's understanding in his article

entitled The Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis.

According to Gerner (1995: 18), foreign policy is

"the intentions, statements, and actions of actor-

often, but not always, a state-directed toward the

external world and the response of these actors to

these intentions, statements, and actions ". Thus, it

can be seen that the intentions, statements, and

actions that policymakers have made in response to

the external world are the characteristics of foreign

policy. In the study of foreign policy analysis itself,

the process of foreign policy making and the factors

that influence it become a central focus of

discussion. So that the coverage of foreign policy

discussion is easy to be analysed and not

overlapping, one of the methodology strategy is

through Level of Analysis or level of analysis

(Sulistyo, 2016). In this article, the author describes

about the level of mass media analysis and public

opinion to clarify its use in foreign policy analysis.

In addition, the authors will also analyse a case

study of Iran's foreign policy related to Iran's

Nuclear Framework Agreement or better known as

Iran's Nuclear Deal policy under the Hassan Rouhani

regime using the level of analysis of the role of

media and public opinion.

2 THE DYNAMICS OF IRANIAN

NUCLEAR DEAL

The draft of nuclear development in Iran was

originally formed in the 1950s. Precisely in

November 1967, Iran built its first nuclear reactor

under the US Atoms for Peace program (Arms

Control, 2016). United States support is also

increasingly visible when the superpower also

supplies a reactor with a power of five megawatts

and uranium supply is high enough to 93 percent for

its operation. Iran's nuclear installation is then

considered for the development of energy-based

advanced technological advances. Iran's own

president, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlevi, said that

the target of nuclear capacity reaching up to 23,000

MWe is aimed at liberating oil and natural gas in the

framework of export demand (World Nuclear,

2016). The nuclear installation in Iran then attracts

attention from multinational companies, such as

Siemens KWU and Framatome, to support the

construction of nuclear power plants in the Persian

Gulf region. Next, the Iranian parliament ratified the

Pribadi, R. and Pratamasari, A.

Iran Nuclear Deal: The Role of Iranian Media and Public Opinion.

DOI: 10.5220/0010280200002309

In Proceedings of Airlangga Conference on International Relations (ACIR 2018) - Politics, Economy, and Security in Changing Indo-Paciﬁc Region, pages 555-561

ISBN: 978-989-758-493-0

555

Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in February

1970 (Arms Control, 2016). Through this nuclear

non-proliferation treaty itself, Iran is committed to

using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes or

not to use it to develop nuclear weapons possession.

But in early 1978, nuclear development in Iran had

slowed down as the Shah Pahlavi regime began to

lose its power in the Iranian government. In 1979,

there was an Iranian Revolution which caused Iran

and US relations to stretch. Even during the Iranian

Revolution, there were 52 US diplomats held

hostage and only released after 444 days (Kerr,

2016: 152). As a result, the United States sanctioned

and severed its diplomatic ties with Iran. This

ultimately led to the development of nuclear in Iran

had slowed down.

Furthermore, Iran's nuclear development

continued in the 1990s precisely in the era of the

Rafsanjani regime that had worked with China and

Russia (World Nuclear, 2016). However, the

cooperation did not last long. In fact, China's nuclear

development cooperation was canceled before

construction began. Some sentiments from the West

then emerged when Iran was considered to be

developing its nuclear technology in secret and

unsafe environment. Moreover, United States also

added Iran to the list of state sponsors of terrorism

(Arms Control, 2016). In later years, some Western

countries were reluctant to work with Iran on unsafe

nuclear development charges and the United States'

assumption that the country is one of the axes of the

world's crime (White House, 2016). The United

States alone had issued the Iran Sanctions Act to cut

US investment exceeding 20 million dollars in the

Iranian energy sector. Ultimately, the International

Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is encouraged to

step in for inspection and further research on how

Iran's nuclear technology is developed. The IAEA

forced Iran to stop any enrichment and nuclear

development process as long as Iran has not

provided any transparency regarding the material it

uses (Arms Control, 2015). In 2006, Iran announced

the development of nuclear enrichment with

uranium. Western countries, including permanent

members of the United Nations Security Council

(UN), are increasingly concerned about Iran's

nuclear development. The United States in

particular, considers that Iran is developing nuclear

weapons because Iran has used material of uranium

element is high enough and pure plutonium (White

House, 2016). As a result, countries in the UN

Security Council and Germany and the EU propose

establishing a framework agreement for Iran in order

to stop the enrichment program for a given period of

time.

The agreement between the five major countries

with Germany and the European Union (P5 + 1) and

Iran was reached in the Iran Nuclear Framework

Agreement under the era of the Hassan Rouhani

regime which is considered a bit more cooperative

with the West, precisely in July 2015. The

agreement framework, also known as the Joint

Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is

expected to ensure Iran's nuclear program

fundamental shift toward the development of

peaceful nuclear technology (Medium, 2015). The

countries involved in JCPOA are also optimistic that

the implementation of this agreement can positively

contribute to regional and international peace and

security. In the JCPOA itself, it is mentioned that

Iran's uranium reserves will be trimmed 98 percent

in the next 15 years and will not produce plutonium

(Antara news, 2015). Thus, it should hinder Iran

pursue for the latest technology for nuclear weapons.

The sanctions given by the United Nations, the

United States and the European Union will

eventually lifted. The BBC (2016) itself reported

that some of the sanctions imposed on Iran have

paralyze Iran's economy of more than 160 million

poundsterling only in oil revenues since 2012.

Through this Iranian Nuclear Treaty Framework,

Iran also able to re-sell its oil into the international

market.

3 MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION

LEVEL OF ANALYSIS

Level of analysis often cited in a social scientific

research as a multilayered structure in a system. One

of the academics of International Relations, Barry

Buzan, defines the level of analysis as a set of

interacting units within a structure (Buzan, 1995:

202). The level of analysis in a social scientific

study or International Relations Science is actually

not an obligation. However, the level of analysis is

believed to facilitate the choice of theory in

analysing the case studies that will be examined. In

addition, the level of analysis is also considered to

be able to make research more focused on the scope

of the discussion or its explanandum and make a

more comprehensive analysis(Sulistyo, 2016). Many

academics of International Relations are classifying

different levels of analysis. Just like David Singer

(1961: 80-82), which divides the level of analysis

into two, namely the international system and the

ACIR 2018 - Airlangga Conference on International Relations

556

national state. Unlike Singer, Neack (2008 in

Dharmaputra, 2016) classifies the broader level of

analysis, ie individual, system, and state.

In Neack argument of analysis, state level of

analysis includes domestic institutions, culture, as

well as public opinion and the media. Public opinion

and media are considered to be one of the most

important levels of analysis and are not spared in

analyzing foreign policy. Public opinion itself is an

external attitude of the community that is conveyed

and then formed due to an issue that is chained by

the media (Ida, 2016). In relation to foreign policy

making, there is a debate between whether public

opinion can be influential in the process of foreign

policy-making or just being limited to "consumers"

who enjoy the outcome of decisions by political

elites. Gabriel Almond (1950 in Holsti, 1992: 442)

himself mentions that the public actually tends to be

indifferent to foreign policy and is considered

"volatile" in response to international phenomena.

This is due to the lack of structure and content that

the public understands. As a result, Almond (1950,

in Holsti, 1992: 442) believes that public opinion has

little influence in directing foreign policy. This

Almond statement later also relates to David Brulé's

top-down approach and Alex Mintz (in

Dharmaputra, 2016). According to them, there are

three classes of public interest and interest in public

opinion and policy. First, public who do not

understand the issues and social phenomena widely.

Second, attentive public interested but not too much

influence in the policy making process. Finally, the

public elite is interested and has enough information

to influence public opinion making and government

policy. In this case, the government can follow the

willingness of public opinion to form foreign policy

or even vice versa.

Furthermore, public opinion channelled through

the media is also considered capable of becoming

one of the influence of foreign policy making.

However, there is also debate that the media is only

able to continue the policy of the government

through its publicity. This itself can be because the

media is not 100 percent independent or is actually

controlled by a certain political elite. Robinson

(2002: 26) in his book The CNN Effect: The Myth

of News, Foreign Policy, and Intervention later

believes that media only influences when

government policy is unclear. As a result, the media

can framing certain issues to shape public opinion

which then generates a sphere of concession in

assisting the formation of foreign policy. Thus, the

mass media can be viewed as a guide or interpreter

of various uncertainties or alternatives (McQuail,

2000 in Subiakto & Ida, 2015: 131).

4 MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION

AND THE IRAN DEAL

Iran is an Islamic republic located in the Persian

Gulf. Before becoming a republic itself, Iran was a

monarchy held by an authoritarian monarch and had

a track record as a country with limited freedom of

expression (Kerr 2016: 152). But after the Iranian

Revolution in 1979, Iran gave an opportunity for its

people to be more flexible in their opinion and

politics in the government even closer with the

West. Now, Iran ruled by a President named Hassan

Rouhani who is rumored to be more open to the

West. With regard to Iran's own Nuclear Treaty

Framework, the Iranian people had previously hoped

that the president elected since 2013 would be able

to change his country's conditions for the better,

especially in the economic field. When Rouhani

elected as Iran's presidential candidate in 2013, he

gave a pledge to the wider chance for Iranians to be

elected to the seat of government power. Rouhani

(Middleeasteye, 2015) then came to power and

began to show his steps to the Iranian society in

order to solve Iran's economic problems and provide

its supporters (grassroots) with social freedom. On

the issue of Iran's own domestic economy, such as

high unemployment issues is widely perceived to

have become public opinion capable of influencing

policy-making in the era of the Rouhani regime. To

achieve these objectives, Rouhani further seeks to

end the sanctions imposed by the United Nations,

the European Union and other Western countries on

Iran's nuclear development that is run to date

(Middleeasteye, 2015). The public also considers

that the sanctions imposed on Iran have been

detrimental to the domestic, given that it is capable

of influencing international cooperation especially

with the major powers such as China, the United

States, France, Germany and other EU countries. In

the end, the international world, especially the

Western countries, chose to terminate its aid, trade,

and foreign investment to Iran because of its

response or concern over Iran's unsafe nuclear

development allegations. Yet when looking at the

abundant wealth of petroleum resources, Iran has a

great opportunity to conduct trade cooperation with

the wider international world. Thus, the public

believes that Iran's economic movements are

consequently slower and governments abandoned

Iran Nuclear Deal: The Role of Iranian Media and Public Opinion

557

with the big powers can not meet the needs of their

people, including in terms of job provision.

Looking at the above phenomenon, the author

believes that the public has been able to convey their

opinions through the media, so it can be an issue or

an important problem at the domestic level. The

issue of weakening the economy has prompted the

Hassan Rouhani regime to negotiate further with the

major powers in the UN Security Council, the P5 + 1

with Germany and the European Union, over nuclear

development in the country that is accused of being

one of the nuclear weapons plans. Looking back at

the two approaches of David Brulé and Alex Mintz

(in Dharmaputra, 2016), the authors see that the

public opinion formed is categorized as a case study

of a bottom-up approach. This is because Hassan

Rouhani, who is basically the president or leader of

Iran, follows the will of the masses. In contrast to

the bottom-up approach, the top-down approach

itself is seen in terms of the popular consensus made

by the elite function by reviewing national interests

and without regard to public opinion. The second

approach is certainly not suitable for analyzing case

studies that occurred in Iran.

The public opinion response related to Iran's own

nuclear development has been studied by the

University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion

Research (UTCPOR) in 2014 and previously by

research organizations related to public opinion,

such as Iran Poll.com, The Program for Public

Consultation (PPC) , and The Center for

International and Security Studies at Maryland

(CISSM). In 2014 alone, UTCPOR conducts surveys

to Iranians both living in Iran and outside Iran with

the question "How important is your opinion on

Iran's nuclear development program?" (Gallagher, et

al., 2015: 8). As a result, four out of five, or rather

83%, Iranian society responded that the nuclear

development program is so important to the country.

While 11% more, stated that Iran's nuclear

development is not so important. Research related to

public response to Iran's nuclear development is

actually also done by organizations and the results

were obtained an average of 80% of Iranians

consider it important. Furthermore, UTCPOR is also

informed that the majority of Iranians, ie 73%,

believe that the development of nuclear technology

in the country is aimed purely for peace (Gallagher,

et al., 2015: 8). They believe that nuclear developed

in Iran alone can help Iran's energy and medical

needs. In addition, public opinion formed in Iran

also shows that Iranians are optimistic that nuclear

development could improve Iran's economic,

cultural, social, and military or security progress.

As the authors wrote earlier, the majority of

Iranians themselves are encouraging the Hassan

Rouhani regime to hold meetings with the major

powers, including P5 + 1, to discuss Iran's related

nuclear development and negotiate the lifting of

sanctions. In the end, Iran agreed on the outcome of

its negotiations with the countries in an Iranian

Nuclear Framework Agreement which is also

supported by Iranian society. The proof, as many as

57% of Iranians support their foreign policy to

pursue a Swiss based agreement (Lausanne)

Understanding which became the forerunner of the

Iran Nuclear Framework Agreement with the P5 + 1

countries (Gallagher, et al., 2015: 12-13.) Only 15%

of Iranians oppose and 28% others choose to follow

government policy or do not know the framework of

the agreement. For Iranians who support their own

accord, they believe that Iran can increase its

cooperation with the P5 + 1 countries in building the

latest nuclear reactor and benefiting its domestic

economy. In addition, most importantly the Iranian

community believes that the Iranian Nuclear

Agreement Framework made with P5 + 1 will also

reduce the tendency of domestic economic

mismanagement and corruption by governments

(Gallagher, et al., 2015: 13). Looking at this case

study, the authors then classify that the public in Iran

has a high level of knowledge and interest in its

foreign policy in pursuit of Iran's Nuclear

Framework Agreement. In this case, most Iranians

can be classified as political elites who are able to

encourage the creation of public opinion. In fact,

public opinion is able to push the Iranian parliament

and leaders to agree on the Iran Nuclear Framework

Agreement as Rouhani wants to defend his

constituency to keep supporting his regime until the

next general election.

The formation of public opinion cannot be

separated from the role of media. As Robinson

(2002: 28-29) says, the media has been framing

issues that focus on individual suffering and

identifying them as victims who need help from the

"outside". Subiakto and Ida (2015: 14) in his book

Communications, Politics, Media, and Democracy

say that framing is done by the media to build and

influence the interpretation of the reader or viewer

about an issue. In this case, the media influence how

the public sees and evaluates the politics of its

government. The author then analyzes how the

development of the media in Iran is related to its

nuclear development, especially under the Rouhani

regime. According to the BBC (2016) in its story

entitled Iran profile - the media, all broadcasts in

Iran have been controlled by the state and must

ACIR 2018 - Airlangga Conference on International Relations

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reflect on its official ideology. Radio channels in

Iran are interconnected as the majority are operated

by the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran

Broadcasting (IRIB). US-based Freedom House

ranked Iran on the third level after China and Syria

as the worst country for internet freedom. Although

there are some private media, but the media is

mostly held by the minions of the Iranian

government itself. In the era of Khamenei's own

regime, some Iranian media such as Kayhan, became

the mouthpiece of government policy. The news is

mostly related to Iran's nuclear issue, even if it does

not comply with Khamenei's official stance

(Freedom House, 2015).

In Rouhani era, Rouhani promised to further

reduce media and information restrictions (Freedom

House, 2015). This can be seen from one of the mass

media owned by the Iranian government in English,

called Tehran Times. In an online portal located at

www.tehrantimes.com (2016), there are almost 4000

articles and news with the keyword "nuclear deal".

The authors analyzed that the news regarding public

opinion criticizing government policies increase in

the Rouhani era. Such as news on September 20,

2015 in Tehrantimes (2015) under the title Vice

President of Hopeful of New Beginning for Iran. In

the news, the country hopes to abolish sanctions due

to Iran's nuclear development that could have a

major impact on oil and gas revenues. Furthermore,

Tehrantimes news (2015) on August 22, 2015 under

the title British-Iran ties After Sanctions stating that

the effect of physical sanctions from the United

Kingdom is actually not very meaningful for the

development of Iran's capacity and capabilities. But

for financial sanctions alone, Iran's domestic

economic condition is quite disturbed as other

countries tend to prevent capital inflows from

entering Iran. Even in fairly recent news, December

21, 2016, Tehrantimes (2016) dare to make the news

of Rouhani's Losing Support, Still Likely to Win Re-

election: Analysts say that poor economic

performance makes the Rouhani government one of

the reasons for its declining popularity, though after

the abolition of some international sanctions due to

Iran's Nuclear Treaty Framework. The Iranian

community itself is still so familiar and waits with

previous promises that focus the cabinet's

performance in its regime to fight for an

international nuclear deal and domestic economic

improvement over the past three years.

After reaching agreement in negotiations related

to the nuclear deal with P5 + 1 countries, Iranian

media then also intensively reported the news. As

quoted by Foreignaffairs.com (2015), various

television channels and reformist newspapers,

including Roozan, Hamkari Melli, and Hamshahri,

announced that the beginning of the era of

cooperation could improve Iran's ties with the West.

Victory through diplomatic channels by the Iranian

government is considered capable of bringing new

hope to the public. In other Iranian conservative

newspapers, such as Javan, Resalat, Jomhouri

Islami, more emphasized that the Iranian resistance

to Western sanctions is crucial because it is

considered a victory for Iran without going through

war (Foreignaffairs, 2015). The euphoria of Iranian

society towards the achievement of Iran's Nuclear

Framework Agreement is also not out of the media

spotlight. One of them, the internet portal Middle

East Eye (2015) mentions that many Iranians who

then took to the streets after breaking the fast to

celebrate the decision against nuclear deal.

The authors consider that Robinson's (2002: 25)

explanation of the influence of mass media in

foreign policy can be applicable in analyzing the

role of the media against the policy making of the

Iran Nuclear Framework Agreement under the

Hassan Rouhani regime. Indeed in previous Iranian

regimes, media and information were so controlled

or restricted. The mass media has legitimate news

because the data came directly from the state. This

shows that the media in Iran previously only

continued the policy of the government. In the era of

Rouhani itself, government and private media and

even foreign information are so intense about its

policies, especially related to Iran's Nuclear

Framework Agreement. Moreover, foreign policy

uncertainty over the Iranian nuclear deal that did not

meet the point of clarity with the Western countries

in previous government regimes, made the public

actively voiced their opinions and encouraged the

media to raise the issue. Luckily, the Rouhani

regime itself is broadening the spread of information

and mass media. In addition, Rouhani also promised

his policy regarding nuclear deal to the public in

order for international economic sanctions to be

lifted, in accordance with public opinion spread in

the media and surveys made by domestic and

foreign organizations.

5 CONCLUSION

Foreign Policy Analysis is one of the studies in

International Relations which looks at how complex

the policy-making process and the factors that affect

why a country takes a particular policy. The author

himself then concludes that the mass media in Iran is

Iran Nuclear Deal: The Role of Iranian Media and Public Opinion

559

enough to help the formation of public opinion from

the Iranian society itself which is then able to

encourage foreign policy making in the form of the

achievement of Iran's Nuclear Framework

Agreement by the Hassan Rouhani regime. Although

in the era of regimes before Rouhani came to power,

freedom of speech and information dissemination

were so restricted and controlled. Moreover, policies

related to nuclear development are only reported by

taking direct data from the government and ignoring

the voice of Iranian society. From the survey and the

growing news, the public wants a change in the era

of Rouhani, especially the improvement of the

domestic economy more precisely the problem of

employment or unemployment rate is high enough.

The public believes that this economic problem is

due to the lack of foreign interference, especially

Western countries, to cooperate in economics such

as investment and trade in Iran. Such minimal

cooperation with foreigners is caused by

international sanctions imposed on Iran due to Iran's

nuclear development which is accused of being non-

transparent and secure. Mass media also managed to

frame the public voices, so that it formed public

opinion which then became a national issue and

heard by the government. Hassan Rouhani as the

leader of Iran also promised to solve domestic

economic problems and fight for the achievement of

Iran's nuclear agreement with the P5 + 1 countries,

so that international economic sanctions on Iran can

be released. The strong will for the achievement of

the Iran Nuclear Non-Proliferation Framework by

the public is demonstrated by the celebration of the

euphoria of Iranian society. The author himself

ultimately believes that Iran's public opinion was

heard because of the regime of Rouhani who wanted

to defend his constituents or supporters, so his team

could be elected again in the next election.

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