Determination Sovereign Sukuk in Indonesia in 2011–2016
Winda Widianingsih, Suryana Suryana, and Neni Sri Wulandari
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, Bandung, Indonesia
winda.widianingsih95@student.upi.edu
Keywords: Sovereign Sukuk, Economic Growth, JUB, SBIS, Multiple Linear Regression.
Abstract: This study aims to determine the value of sovereign sukuk that are affected by macroeconomic variables in
this case economic growth, Money Supply (JUB), and Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS). This study
uses secondary data with time series data type and used monthly for the period 2011-2016. The research
method used is descriptive and verifikatif method with multiple linear regression analysis. Variable
Dependent in this research is sukuk country. Furthermore, the independent variables in the research are
economic growth, JUB, and SBIS. Based on the results of the research note that economic growth has no
significant effect on the value of sovereign sukuk with a positive related. While JUB has significantly effect
on the value of sovereign sukuk with a positive related. As well as SBIS has significantly effect on the value
of sovereign sukuk with a negative related.
1 INTRODUCTION
The concept of Islamic Finance is growing rapidly,
universally accepted and adopted not only by Islamic
countries in the Middle East region but also by
various countries in Asia, Europe and America. It is
characterized by the establishment of various forms
of Islamic financial institutions and the issuance of
various syariah-based financial instruments (Azwar,
2015).
One of sharia financial instruments that have been
widely published both by the state and corporations
are sukuk. According to the Accounting and Auditing
Organization for the Islamic Finance Institution
(AAOIFI), the Sukuk is a certificate indicating proof
of ownership divided into a tangible asset, the value
of benefits, services or asset ownership of a particular
project or investment activity.
Sukuk is a sharia bond and is based on the concept
of securitization, sukuk is an alternative to Islam for
asset monetization, project financing, financing
through assets supported by securitization and public
financing (Shaikh, 2010).
The development of sukuk in Indonesia begins
with the fatwa of the National Sharia Council,
Indonesian Council of Ulama (DSN-MUI) Number
32 / DSN-MUI / IX / 2002 concerning Syariah Bonds,
in 2008 the development of sukuk increased when the
Indonesian government through the minister of
finance took part by issuing State Sukuk in the form
of Government Sharia Securities (SBSN).
The main objective of the government to issue
sukuk is to finance the state budget, including to
finance the construction of the project. As mentioned
in Article 4 of the SBSN Law, the purpose of SBSN
is to finance the State Budget (APBN), including to
finance the construction of the project (Kholis, 2010).
The development of Sovereign Sukuk in
Indonesia is shown in the following figure:
Figure 1: Outstanding Sovereign Sukuk in Indonesia.
Sumber: DJPU, Kemenkeu (2015).
520.66
883.78
1372.49
1801.24
2812.36
4092.28
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Outstanding Sovereign
Sukuk
Widianingsih, W., Suryana, S. and Wulandari, N.
Determination Sovereign Sukuk in Indonesia in 2011–2016.
In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Islamic Economics, Business, and Philanthropy (ICIEBP 2017) - Transforming Islamic Economy and Societies, pages 73-77
ISBN: 978-989-758-315-5
Copyright © 2018 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved
73
Through Figure 1 can be seen that the
development of sukuk in Indonesia experienced a
positive trend from 2011 to 2016. This achievement
is quite encouraging.
However, if we compare it with other countries
that have also been issuing sukuk, it is still small,
especially when compared with Malaysia. The
following is data of countries that have become sukuk
publishers and sukuk types issued according to
1Q2015:
Figure 2: Sukuk by Country of Issuer and Type of Sukuk.
Sumber: ISRA, IFIS, Zawya, Bloomberg (2015)
Based on data above Indonesia is still far below
Malaysia in terms of issuing sukuk. The time factor
of the issuance of sukuk in Indonesia is still new is
also a reason that causes the issuance of sukuk in
Indonesia is small.
According to Irfan Sauqi Beik in his research
stated that the issuance of sukuk in Indonesia can not
be separated from the macroeconomic conditions that
exist in this country. Irfan Sauqi Beik further stated
that in the long run, the issuance of sukuk in Indonesia
is influenced by macroeconomic indicators, namely
economic growth and money supply with positive
relationship, and open unemployment and inflation
with negative relationship. In addition, long-term
sukuk issuance is also affected by the bonus of Bank
Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS).
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
Issuance of sukuk serves as a financing instrument
and also investment that can be offered into various
shapes or structures according to sharia
(Burhanuddin, 2009).
The Interest-Listed Issuers Team at Capital
Market-BAPEPAM LK (2009) mentioned that the
most influential factor in issuing sukuk is external
factor, the most influential external factor is the
excess liquidity in the market. This market liquidity
distorts the current economic condition.
Macroeconomic factors have been empirically
proven to have an effect on capital market conditions
in some countries. These factors are economic
growth, inflation, exchange rate (Tandelilin, 2010).
According to the theory of macroeconomic
transmission, the issuance of sukuk as an investment
instrument can be used by the government to reduce
macroeconomic problems, such as inflation and
unemployment. Sukuk can also contribute in boosting
economic growth. Based on the theory of monetary
transmission, the issuance of sukuk can also be used
in controlling the money supply through a contractive
policy. Issuance of sukuk in Indonesia is also
inseparable from the macroeconomic conditions in
this country (Beik and Rini, 2012).
3 METHODOLOGY
The method used in this research is descriptive and
verifikatif method with multiple linear regression
analysis. Objects in this study are Sovereign Sukuk,
Economic Growth (GDP), Total Money Supply
(JUB) and Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS)
period 2011-2016. Data were collected through
literature studies and documentation.
4 RESULTS
The general description of the dependent variable is
the sovereign sukuk as follows:
Table 1: General Description of sovereign sukuk.
Year
Outstanding Sukuk
2011
520,66
2012
883,78
2013
1.372,49
2014
1.801,24
2015
2.812,36
2016
4.092,28
Amount
11482.81
Average
1913.80
Based on data from Table 1 it can be seen that the
development of sovereign sukuk in Indonesia is very
encouraging, until 2016 the value of the sukuk
country traded is 4,092,28 trillions rupiah, 45,51%
increase from previous year, and increase 685% from
year 2011. The types of sukuk countries traded
42.30%
18.20%
14.20%
14.10%
5.30%
5%
Sovereign Sukuk
Malaysia
UAE
Bahrain
Indonesia
ICIEBP 2017 - 1st International Conference on Islamic Economics, Business and Philanthropy
74
include Sukuk Retail (SR), Islamic Fixed Rate (IFR),
Project Based Sukuk (PBS), Indonesian State Sukuk
(SNI) and Sharia State Treasury (SPNS).
Factors affecting the issuance of state sukuk by
the Indonesian government are the factors of fiscal
stimulus financing required by the government to
finance infrastructure development and to finance the
state budget deficit (Irfan, 2012).
The general description of the independent
variables namely economic growth, JUB and SBIS as
follows:
Table 2: General description of GDP, JUB, SBIS.
Year
GDP
JUB (Billion)
2011
6.17
2.571.164,25
2012
6.03
3.043.937,08
2013
5.56
3.465.391,64
2014
5.01
3.867.679,49
2015
4.88
4.357.423,74
2016
5.02
4.698.075,00
Amount
32.67
22,003,671.20
Averages
5.45
3,667,278.53
Based on Table 2, GDP growth in Indonesia from
2011 to 2016 has fluctuated, but tends to decline. This
is due to several factors such as the decreasing of
people's purchasing power and the lack of
government spending and excessive export and
import activities, the economic slowdown of export
destination countries such as China and Europe has
had a major impact on the decline of Indonesian
exports. (Sari, 2015)
JUB from 2011 to 2016 continues to increase.
According to Bank Indonesia (BI), the increase in M2
was caused by the acceleration of banking credit that
grew. The development of JUB is inseparable from
the role played by the central bank. Other factors that
greatly affect the behavior of money supply are
primary money and multiplication of money.
SBIS from 2011 to 2016 has fluctuated. The
highest nominal value of SBIS is in 2014 and the
lowest is in 2016. SBIS issuance depends heavily on
the role of Bank Indonesia in conducting Open
Market Operations (OPT), where when BI considers
that liquidity calculation as well as from interest rate
indicator in interbank money market (PUAB) excess
liquidity, BI will use its OPT policy in which SBIS is
one of the instruments used to reduce the excess
liquidity.
The result of the data obtained related to three
variables in this research then processed and analyzed
using multiple regression model to obtain the
following equation:
Y = β
o
+ β
1
X
1
+ β
2
X
2
+ β
3
X
3
+ e
Sukuk= -15,63 + 0,008PDB + 3,28JUB – 0,02SBIS
+ e
4.1 Partial test of hypothesis (t Test).
Hypothesis testing partially using t test with error rate
(α = 5%) obtained result as follows:
Table 3: The Result of t-Test.
Variable
t-Stat
t-Table
Prob.
Conclusion
GDP
1.72
>
1,67
0.0899
Insignificant
JUB
36.56
>
0.0000
Significant
SBIS
-2.14
>
0.0356
Significant
Based on the data from the Table 3, it is known
that GDP has a positive effect but not significant on
the sovereign sukuk, JUB has a significant positive
effect on the sovereign sukuk, and SBIS has a
significant negative effect on the sovereign sukuk.
4.2 Simultaneously test of hypothesis (F
Test)
F test is performed to test the overall hypothesis with
the error rate (α = 5%) obtained the following results:
Table 4: The Result of F-Test.
Variable
F Stat
F table
conclusion
GDP, JUB,
SBIS
453.0795
>
2.74
Significant
Based on Table 4, it is known that F-statistic
(453.08) is greater than F table (2.74), and Probability
(0,0000) is smaller than significance level (0.10).
Then it can be concluded that all independent
variables (GDP, JUB and SBIS) together influence
the dependent variable that is sovereign sukuk.
4.3 Determination Coefficient Analysis
(R2)
Estimation result obtained value of R
2
equal to 0,95,
that is mean contribution of independent variable that
is economic growth, Total Money Supply and SBIS
to dependent variable that is sovereign Sukuk equal
to 95% and rest of 5% influenced by other factor
outside estimation model.
Determination Sovereign Sukuk in Indonesia in 2011–2016
75
4.4 Effect of GDP on Sukuk
According to the theory of macroeconomic
transmission of sukuk issuance can contribute to the
increase of economic growth, and high economic
growth will increase the issuance of sukuk because
high economic growth reflects the good economic
condition. According to Irfan Sauqi Beik Sukuk
issuance in Indonesia is inseparable from the existing
macroeconomic conditions in the country, one of
which is economic growth. (Beik, 2012)
Based on the results of previous research studies
related to the effect of GDP on the value of sukuk
such as Irfan Sauqi Beik and Mustika Rini (2012) and
Selvianty (2015) stating that GDP positively affects
the value of the Sovereign Sukuk.
The other results are also obtained from research
conducted by Melati (2013) stating that GDP has a
negative effect on sovereign sukuk.
Thus it can be concluded that GDP has no
significant effect on the value of sukuk country in
Indonesia, so the results of this study is less
appropriate and supports some previous research
results. This may be due to several possible
differences between the years of research used, and
economic growth is a reflection of the Indonesian
economy in a macro and very broad range, while
sukuk is only one part of the Islamic investment
instrument that is a small part of the overall
investment in Indonesia. Therefore, it is unlikely that
economic growth will have a significant impact on
sukuk, but it is undeniable that GDP does have an
influence on sukuk country with a positive
relationship although its influence is not too big or not
significant
4.5 Effect of money supply (JUB) on
Sukuk
Based on the portfolio theory of money demand, the
amount of money in circulation is related to
investment. This theory says that money is part of the
asset portfolio, money provides a different
combination of risks and returns compared to other
assets (Mirazdianti, 2014).
BAPEPAM LK (2009) states that the most
influential factor in the issuance of sukuk is an
external factor, the most influential external factor is
the excess liquidity in the market. The condition of
this excess liquidity market in terms of the amount of
money circulating in the market has increased, so to
avoid inflation caused by excess amount of money
circulating the government in this case Bank
Indonesia will conduct a contractive policy through
open market operations by issuing investment
instruments one of which is sovereign sukuk. This is
in line with the theory of monetary transmission, in
which the issuance of sukuk can be used in
controlling the money supply through a contractive
policy.
On the other hand, the results of this research
support some of the previous research results related
to the influence of JUB on the sukuk value, among
others are research from Selvianty (2015) and
Nugroho (2008) stating that JUB has a positive and
significant influence on the growth of sukuk.
The same result is also given by research
conducted by Irfan Sauqi Beik and Mustika Rini
(2012) that JUB have positive effect on sukuk. When
there is an increase in the money supply in the
community, the government will issue sukuk as one
of the instruments that can be used in open market
operations.
4.6 Effect of SBIS on Sukuk
The purpose of the issuance of Bank Indonesia
regulation concerning SBIS is intended as one of
Open Market Operation instruments in the framework
of monetary control based on sharia principles. The
calculation of bonuses granted to SBIS refers to the
discount rate on the results of the same period SBI
auction issued simultaneously with the issuance of
SBIS.
The interest rate also determines the price of a
bond. One of the determinants of whether the bond
price is attractive or not is the interest rate given to
bond investors. If interest rates in the market decline,
investors tend to buy bonds with higher coupons than
deposits so bond prices tend to rise (Raharjo, 2004).
According to Khan in Nurul Huda (2008) states
that investment demand is determined by the level of
profit expected by investors, this has a very big
influence on the decision of investors in determining
what type of investment will be chosen. That is, if the
profit provided by an investment instrument other
than a sukuk is higher than that of a sukuk,
theoretically, the investor will prefer to invest in the
higher yielding instrument.
With the selection of this type of investment will
affect the issuance of sukuk. So when the value of
SBIS increases will affect the decline in value of
sukuk, because SBIS is also one of the investment
instruments into consideration investors in investing.
In other words, this SBIS has a negative relationship
with the value of sukuk.
On the other hand, the results of this research
support the results of previous research studies related
ICIEBP 2017 - 1st International Conference on Islamic Economics, Business and Philanthropy
76
to the influence of SBIS on sukuk such as the research
conducted by Irfan Sauqi Beik and Mustika Rini
(2012) stating that in the long run the issuance of
sukuk is influenced by the SBIS rate. When SBIS
rewards rate is given high then investors will choose
to buy SBIS compared with sukuk, therefore SBIS
variable has a negative influence on sukuk country.
Thus it can be concluded that SBIS influences the
value of sukuk country in Indonesia with a negative
relationship. The implications of the findings of this
study are as a reference in the implementation of
sukuk issuance of the state to be effective and
efficient with regard to the rate of return applied by
other investment instruments.
5 CONCLUSION
The results showed that economic growth (GDP) has
an insignificant influence on the value of sovereign
sukuk with a positive relationship. Total Money
Supply (JUB) has a significant effect on the value of
sovereign sukuk with a positive relationship. Bank
Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS) have a
significant effect on the value of sovereign sukuk
with negative relationship. Together GDP, JUB and
SBIS significantly influence the value of sukuk
country in Indonesia.
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