Bitcoin Price Analysis and Future Forecast: A Study Based on Market Factors and Quantitative Models

Yisu Xu

2025

Abstract

As the first decentralized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has fundamentally transformed the financial landscape since its inception in 2009. With a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion at its peak, Bitcoin not only pioneered blockchain technology but also established itself as a critical asset class, influencing global investment strategies and regulatory frameworks. Its decentralized nature challenges traditional financial systems, offering an alternative store of value amidst economic uncertainties. However, Bitcoin’s extreme price volatility and regulatory ambiguities underscore the necessity for rigorous analysis to guide investors and policymakers. This paper investigates the factors influencing Bitcoin price fluctuations and explores predictive methodologies to forecast its future trends. By analyzing historical data and market dynamics, the study identifies key drivers such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, and investor sentiment. Quantitative models, including time series analysis and machine learning algorithms, are evaluated for their effectiveness in predicting Bitcoin’s volatility. The research highlights existing limitations, including data quality issues and regulatory uncertainties, and proposes future directions for improving predictive accuracy. The findings suggest that while Bitcoin remains a high-risk asset, integrating multi-source data and adaptive models could enhance forecasting reliability. This study provides actionable insights for investors and policymakers navigating the cryptocurrency market.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Xu Y. (2025). Bitcoin Price Analysis and Future Forecast: A Study Based on Market Factors and Quantitative Models. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE; ISBN 978-989-758-765-8, SciTePress, pages 311-316. DOI: 10.5220/0013688700004670

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icdse25,
author={Yisu Xu},
title={Bitcoin Price Analysis and Future Forecast: A Study Based on Market Factors and Quantitative Models},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE},
year={2025},
pages={311-316},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013688700004670},
isbn={978-989-758-765-8},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Science and Engineering - Volume 1: ICDSE
TI - Bitcoin Price Analysis and Future Forecast: A Study Based on Market Factors and Quantitative Models
SN - 978-989-758-765-8
AU - Xu Y.
PY - 2025
SP - 311
EP - 316
DO - 10.5220/0013688700004670
PB - SciTePress