Supervised Machine Learning: Research on Predicting English Premier League Match Outcomes Based on an AdaBoost Classifier

Junbo Feng

2024

Abstract

This paper focuses on the application of the Adaptive Boost (AdaBoost) classifier in the task of predicting match results in the English Premier League (EPL). The research aims to predict over 80% of match results in EPL correctly, but it does not aim to accurately predict the scores. The study compares AdaBoost’s performance with a baseline Random Forest classifier using data from several EPL seasons. Preprocessing steps include data cleaning, feature selection, and integration of match-related data. The AdaBoost model achieved an accuracy of 86.65%, outperforming the Random Forest's 84.15%. This indicates the practicability of using the AdaBoost model in predicting football match results. The model could be refined in future work to account for additional variables such as referee decisions, match time, and personnel choices excluded in data preprocessing. This research provides a basic approach for using advanced machine learning techniques in sports predictions and identifies areas that can be potentially improved to generate predictions with higher precision.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Feng J. (2024). Supervised Machine Learning: Research on Predicting English Premier League Match Outcomes Based on an AdaBoost Classifier. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Analysis and Machine Learning - Volume 1: DAML; ISBN 978-989-758-754-2, SciTePress, pages 35-39. DOI: 10.5220/0013486900004619

in Bibtex Style

@conference{daml24,
author={Junbo Feng},
title={Supervised Machine Learning: Research on Predicting English Premier League Match Outcomes Based on an AdaBoost Classifier},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Analysis and Machine Learning - Volume 1: DAML},
year={2024},
pages={35-39},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013486900004619},
isbn={978-989-758-754-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Data Analysis and Machine Learning - Volume 1: DAML
TI - Supervised Machine Learning: Research on Predicting English Premier League Match Outcomes Based on an AdaBoost Classifier
SN - 978-989-758-754-2
AU - Feng J.
PY - 2024
SP - 35
EP - 39
DO - 10.5220/0013486900004619
PB - SciTePress