Innovation as a Factor of Sustainable Development during a
Pandemic: Scientific Analytics and Management Perspectives
Anastasia A. Sozinova
1
a
and Aliia M. Baziyeva
2
b
1
Vyatka State University, Kirov, Russian Federation
2
Batken State University, Kyzyl-Kiya, Kyrgyzstan
Keywords: Sustainable development, innovation, COVID-2019 pandemic, post-pandemic, scientific analytics,
management perspectives.
Abstract:
Sustainable development goals are considered by all countries. However, each country has its own specifics
in innovative development. In addition, the current stage of the world economy development is characterized
by competition for leadership in world markets, where innovation is the main tool. In this connection, studying
the dependence of the country's innovative development and the level of sustainability is relevant. The purpose
of this research is to test the hypothesis and scientific analytics of introducing innovations as a factor in the
sustainable development of the economy and to identify the prospects for managing this factor in order to
maintain sustainability. The methodological apparatus of the research is based on the methods of economic
statistics (econometrics), namely the method of variation, methods of correlation and regression analyzes,
analysis of variance. The scientific value and novelty is the assessment of prospects for managing innovative
development in the context of the sustainable development methodology
.
1 INTRODUCTION
The global economy managed to recover from the
financial and economic crisis of 2008, but then a new
crisis caused by the COVID-2019 pandemic came. In
this regard, the problem of sustainable development of
the economy at the present time and its prospects are
highly urgent. Therefore, there is a need to determine
the factors influencing sustainable development.
Features and factors of sustainable development of
the modern economy are studied by such scientists as
Andronova et al. (Andronova,
2019), Goyal and Sergi
(Goyal,2015), Haabazoka (Haabazoka, 2019),
Inshakov et al. (Inshakov, 2019), Karanina et al.
(Karanina, 2019), Morozova et al. (Morozova, 2019),
Petrenko et al. (Petrenko, 2018), Popkova et al.
(Popkova, 2014), Popkova et al. (Popkova, 2017),
Popkova et al. (Popkova, 2016), Pozdnyakova et al.
(Pozdnyakova, 2017), Ragulina et al. (Ragulina,
2019a), Ragulina et al. (Ragulina, 2019b), Sergi
(Sergi, 2018), Sergi et al. (Sergi, 2019a), Sergi et al.
(Sergi, 2019b), Sozinova et al. (Sozinova, 2021a),
Sozinova et al. (Sozinova, 2021b), Tripathi et al.
a
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5876-2823
b
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9387-5890
(Tripathi, 2020), Zavyalova et al. (Zavyalova, 2018),
Zhang et al. (Zhang, 2018).
Prospects for improving the practice of making
management decisions in conditions of economic
crises are considered by Bogoviz et al. (Bogoviz,
2018), Fufacheva et al. (Fufacheva, 2017), Kataeva et
al. (Kataeva, 2017), Popkova et al. (Popkova, 2021a),
Popkova et al. (Popkova, 2021b), Soboleva et al.
(Soboleva, 2017) and others. The issues of introducing
innovations are analyzed by Loginov and Karanina
(Loginov, 2019), Palkina et al. (Palkina, 2020a),
Palkina et al. (Palkina, 2020b), Palkina and Kislitsina
(Palkina, 2018), Snigireva et al. (Snigireva, 2017).
The article proposes a hypothesis that the
introduction of innovations is an effective factor of
sustainable development. The aim of the study is to
test the hypothesis and scientific analytics of
introducing innovations as a factor of sustainable
economic development, and to identify the prospects
for managing this factor in order to maintain
sustainability.
The scientific value and novelty is an assessment
of prospects for managing innovative development in
Sozinova, A. and Baziyeva, A.
Innovation as a Factor of Sustainable Development during a Pandemic: Scientific Analytics and Management Perspectives.
DOI: 10.5220/0010701700003169
In Proceedings of the International Scientific-Practical Conference "Ensuring the Stability and Security of Socio-Economic Systems: Overcoming the Threats of the Crisis Space" (SES 2021),
pages 323-329
ISBN: 978-989-758-546-3
Copyright
c
2022 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved
323
the context of sustainable development methodology,
and the results of a statistical analysis of depending
manifestations of sustainable development on
innovative development in countries
2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
The research has studied the example of the leaders
(countries from the top 20) of the World Bank global
ranking for 2020 according to the value of the index
of doing business for 2020.
The methodological apparatus of the research is
based on the methods of economic statistics
(econometrics), namely:
the method of analysis of variation, which
calculates the arithmetic mean over the sample (x
mean
),
standard (root-mean-square) deviation (s) and
coefficient of variation (V = s/x
mean
*100%) and
determines the spread of data (degree of homogeneity)
of the sample;
the method of correlation analysis, with the
help of which the correlation coefficient (r) and the
coefficient of determination (R
2
) are calculated and
the interdependence of the variables included in the
time series is revealed;
the method of regression analysis, with the
help of which a multiple linear regression model of the
form y=a+b
1
*x
1
+b
2
*x
2
+…+b
n
*x
n
is compiled. The
values of the coefficients b in this model show how the
dependent variable (y) changes when each
independent variable changes by 1;
an analysis of variance, which evaluates the
statistical significance of the results of regression
analysis by Fisher's F-test (F
obs
must be greater than
F
tabl
) and Student's t-test (t
obs
must be greater than t
tabl
).
Calculations are performed using automation tools
based on standard functions ("AVERAGE",
"STANDARDDEVAL") of the "Data Analysis"
function of the Microsoft Excel computer program.
Statistical materials of the Sustainable development
index Global Innovation index (2020), World
Economic Forum (The global competitiveness report
2019) are the information and empirical base of the
study.
Using the method of regression analysis, firstly,
the authors have determined the dependence of the
manifestations of sustainable development,
highlighted in the content analysis of the literary
sources The Global Innovation Index (GII) (2020) by
constructing regression curves. Secondly, a
multifactorial model of the regression dependence of
sustainable development in the country on the selected
potential factors has been built (Table 1).
Table 1: Statistics for correlation and regression analyzes in the top 20 countries.
Position in the ranking
doing business 2020
Country
The Global
Innovation
Index,
points 1–
100
x
Manifestations of sustainable development
Global
Competitiv
eness Index
4.0, points
1
100
Economic
growth rate,
%
GDP per
capita
2020,
PPP$
GDP per capita
2019, PPP$
Sustainable
Developme
nt Index,
points 1–
100
y1 y2 y3
for reference, for
calculation x2
y4
The developed
countries
(top 10)
New Zealand 26 76,7 -10,94 35 744,00 40 135,40 43,6
Singapore 8 84,8 -10,23 90 080,20 100 344,70 7,9
Denmark 6 81,2 -9,75 47 040,40 52 120,50 35,5
The Republic of Korea 10 79,6 -5,54 39 059,70 41 350,60 27,4
USA 3 83,7 -9,2 56 844,30 62 605,60 18,1
Great Britain 4 81,2 -10,55 40 881,30 45 704,60 39,1
Developing
countries
(top 20)
Malaysia 33 74,6 -6,98 28 705,90 30 859,90 46,6
UAE 34 75 -12,63 60 618,60 69 381,70 11
Thailand 44 68,1 -8,72 17 778,80 19 476,50 73,7
Russia 47 66,7 -11,58 25 878,70 29 266,90 68,5
China 14 73,9 -5,98 17 027,50 18 109,80 51,7
Turkey 51 62,1 -11,73 24 675,50 27 956,10 67,5
Aver-
age
- 23,33 75,63 -9,49 40 361,24 44 776,03 40,88
Source: compiled by the authors based on materials (Globalinnovationindex.org, 2020; Weforum.org, 2019; Wipo.int, 2019;
Sustainabledevelopmentindex.org).
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SOCIO - ECONOMIC SYSTEMS: OVERCOMING THE THREATS OF THE CRISIS SPACE"
324
Source: compiled by the authors.
Figure 1: Correlation analysis of depending manifestations of sustainable development on innovative development.
Source: compiled by the authors.
Figure 2: Correlation analysis of the dependence of the Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 and Sustainable Development
Index.
3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Based on the data in Table 1, the following results of
correlation analysis were obtained (Fig. 1). At the
same time, the indicators of the Global Innovation
Index and Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 are
measured in points, but they are reciprocal. Since, in
accordance with their methodology, The Global
Innovation Index varies from 1 to 100, the closer to 1,
the better the innovative development of the country,
and in accordance with the methodology for
calculating the Global Competitiveness Index 4.0, the
closer the country's indicator is to 100, the better.
Similarly, the indicators of Economic growth rate,
GDP per capita are reciprocal in relation to The
Global Innovation Index.
As can be seen from Fig. 1, the top 10 and top 20
countries are influenced by innovative development
on the level of the country’s competitiveness (78.68%
and 79.45%, respectively) and the average impact on
the overall sustainable development index (45.88%
and 44.04% respectively). Innovative development
has a rather weak effect on the country’s GDP, which
is proved by the analysis of studied years (2020 and
2019).
In addition, the high level of correlation between
the indicators of the Global Competitiveness Index
4.0 and the Sustainable Development Index (Fig. 2),
which indicates the need for regression analysis with
the Sustainable Development Index, should be noted.
As it can be seen, the correlation analysis partially
confirmed the scientific hypothesis about depending
Innovation as a Factor of Sustainable Development during a Pandemic: Scientific Analytics and Management Perspectives
325
manifestations of sustainable development identified
in the content analysis on the innovative development
of the country. Three of the four manifestations of
sustainable development depend on innovative
development: Global Competitiveness Index 4.0,
Economic growth rate (only in developing countries)
and Sustainable Development Index. GDP per capita
showed a weak connection with innovative
development, and therefore we exclude it from
further regression analysis.
Firstly, let us consider the regression statistics of
the correlation of the dependent variable y
1
(Global
Competitiveness Index 4.0) on the factor x (indicators
of the Global Innovation Index). By the method of
analysis, it is determined (by the coefficient of
determination) that the dependence is better described
by the linear function y
1
(x)=a
1
+b
1
*x. The regression
statistics of this equation are given in Table 2.
Table 2: Regression statistics.
Regression statistics
Multiple R 0,928544784
R-square 0,862195415
Normalized R-square 0,848414957
Standard erro
r
6,998923948
Observations 12
Source Developed and compiled by the authors.
The calculated multiple R = 0.9285 suggests that
the 92.85% change in the Global Competitiveness
Index 4.0 is due to the change in the Global
Innovation Index. The normalized coefficient of
determination (0.8484) characterizes the closeness of
the constructed regression to the original data. In our
case, the R-square and the normalized R-square do
not differ significantly (0.8622 and 0.8484,
respectively), which positively characterizes the
constructed model. The results of analysis of variance
are shown in Table 3.
According to Table 3, the observed value of the F-
Fisher criterion: F
obs
= 2.4. Tabular value F
tabl
is
2.156. Since F
obs
> F
tabl
(2.4> 2.156), the equation is
considered statistically significant. The calculated
coefficients of the regression equation are given in
Table 4.
Analysis of Table 4 allows to conclude that a
model y
1
=201,528-2,356 * x is obtained. The
calculated p-value does not exceed 0.05, therefore,
the model is statistically significant at the α = 0.05
level. To assess the statistical significance of the
regression coefficient, let us analyze the observed
value of the Student's t-test: 3.912 (for the coefficient
b
1
). For a given level of significance = 0.05) and n-
2 = 12-2 = 10 degrees of freedom, the tabular value
of the t-criterion: t
tabl
= 2.228. Since t
obs
of each
regression coefficient is greater than t
tabl
, then we
recognize the statistical significance of the regression
coefficients.
Thus, the regression analysis has shown that the
growth of innovative development by 1 point
contributes to the growth of the Global
Competitiveness Index 4.0 2.35 points (the indicators
are reversed).
Secondly, let us consider the regression statistics
of the correlation of the dependent variable y
2
(Economic growth rate) on the factor x (Global
Innovation Index indicators) in developing countries.
The analysis is carried out in a similar way, we
present only the results of the study.
Table 3: Analysis of variance.
df SS MS F Value F
Regression 1 3064,817 3064,817 62,56653 2,4
Remainder 10 489,8494 48,98494
Total 11 3554,667
Source Developed and compiled by the authors.
Table 4: Calculated coefficients.
Coefficients Standard error t-statistics P-value Low 95% High 95%
a
1
201,5286045 22,61855 8,909882 4,53E-06 151,1313375 251,9259
b
1
-2,356041488 0,29786 -7,9099 1,3E-05 -3,01971451 -1,69237
Source Developed and compiled by the authors.
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SOCIO - ECONOMIC SYSTEMS: OVERCOMING THE THREATS OF THE CRISIS SPACE"
326
The resulting model is: y
2
=5,11-3,34 * x. The
regression analysis has shown that the growth of
innovative development by 1 point contributes to the
growth of the Economic growth rate in developing
countries by 3.34 points (the indicators are reversed).
Thirdly, let us consider the regression statistics of
the correlation of the dependent variable y
4
(Sustainable Development Index) on the factor x
(Global Innovation Index indicators). The analysis is
carried out in a similar way, we present only the
results of the study.
The resulting model is: y
4
=0,79+0,55 * x.
Regression analysis has shown that the growth of
innovative development by 1 point contributes to the
growth of the Sustainable Development Index by 0.55
points.
Based on the presented results of correlation and
regression analyzes, the authors present the prospects
for managing innovative development, the results of
which are shown in Table 5.
Table 5 proves the hypothesis that innovative
development stimulates sustainable development.
Statistical calculations have proved that there are two
forms of manifestations of sustainable development,
which are influenced by the innovative development
of countries (countries from the top 20) of the World
Bank's global ranking for 2020 according to the value
of “doing business” index - Global Competitiveness
Index 4.0 and Sustainable Development Index.
Developing countries are characterized by an impact
on the third form of manifestation of sustainable
development - Economic growth rate. The direct
results of the innovative development of countries are
an increase in the country's rating in terms of key
indicators characterizing sustainable development.
A debatable issue in the context of this research is
the impact of innovative development on such
manifestations of sustainable development as
Economic growth rate in the top 10 countries of the
World Bank global ranking for 2020 by the value of
“doing business” index and GDP per capita, which
will be further studied.
Table 5: Prospects for managing innovative development for sustainability.
Indicators
Manifestations of sustainable developmentя
Global
Competitiveness
Index 4.0, y
1
Economic growth rate, y
2
GDP per capita, y
3
Sustainable
Development Index,
y
4
Independent
variable
Global Innovation Index, x
The relationship
between
variables
reverse reverse reverse direct
Assessment of
depending
manifestations
of sustainable
development on
cluster
developmen
t
high (correlation is
78,68% and 79,45%)
high correlation among
developing countries (correlation
68.97), weak connection among
developed countries (correlation
19.12%)
medium and weak
connection
(correlation
33.15% and -
1.04%)
average (correlation
45.88% and 44.04%)
Regression
dependence
y
1
=201,528-2,356 * x
Developing countries only:
y
2
=5,11-3,34 * x
Weak closeness of
the constructed
regression to the
original data
y
4
=0,79+0,55 * x
Consequences
of the rise / fall
of the
independent
variable
If the independent
variable changes by
1%, the dependent
variable improves /
worsens its
performance by 2.36.
In developing countries if the
independent variable changes by
1%, the dependent variable
improves / worsens its
performance by 3.34.
-
If the independent
variable changes by
1%, the dependent
variable improves /
worsens its
performance by 0.55.
Conclusion on
the prospects for
management
The country's
innovative
development is an
important element
that stimulates global
competitiveness
The innovative development of
developing countries is an
important element in stimulating
global competitiveness. It is not
possible to assess the prospects
for innovative development of
developed countries due to the
weak relationship between
indicators
It is not possible
to assess the
prospects due to
the weak
relationship
between the
indicators
Innovative
development is an
essential element for
stimulating
sustainable
development
Source: compiled by the authors.
Innovation as a Factor of Sustainable Development during a Pandemic: Scientific Analytics and Management Perspectives
327
4 CONCLUSIONS
The research is theoretically significant as its results
and authors' conclusions contribute to the
development of the concept of sustainability. The
scientific value and novelty is an assessment of the
prospects for managing innovative development in
the context of sustainable development methodology,
as well as the results of a statistical analysis of
depending manifestations of sustainable development
on innovative development in countries.
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