Ensuring the Economic Security of the Subsidized Region on the

Basis of Risk-based Management of Socio-economic Development

D. V. Mandjieva

Kalmyk State University, Elista, Russia

Keywords: Territories without large urban agglomerations, sustainability of development, economic security of the

region, risk-based approach, risk assessment.

Abstract: Sustainable and economically secure socio-economic development of the Russian Federation requires the use

of modern management methods and tools, including, along with other modern methods, also risk-based

management methods. The tasks of wide application of the risk-based approach of the RR are an actual

research topic for solving the important national economic problem of developing and improving models and

programs for ensuring the economic security of meso-economic entities without large urban agglomerations.

This paper analyzes the criteria for the socio-economic development of Russian regions, identifies the main

risk factors for the socio-economic development of a region without large urban agglomerations, and

evaluates models and programs for ensuring the economic security of meso-economic entities in a region

without large urban agglomerations.

1 INTRODUCTION

The paper examines the conditions and factors of the

object of research-changes in the internal and external

environment (context) of a region without large urban

agglomerations. Based on the materials of the

analysis, the main factors of the formation of rice

situations are identified and the reasons that can

negatively affect the stable and sustainable

development of the economy in the period up to 2025

are systematized. The widespread situation of

insufficient reliable information is also confirmed,

which allows us to speak about the formation of

management decisions in the territorial

administration in conditions of incompleteness or

insufficiency of the required information for a reliable

assessment of risk outcomes, the necessary reserves

and the adoption of operational and strategic

decisions.

Among the main threats and dangers of the

external environment that form the possible risks of

the Republic of Kalmykia, traditionally repeated and

characteristic of other regions of a similar level of

development are highlighted:

 the lack of resources necessary for

development, which leads to fierce competition in the

domestic and foreign markets of raw materials,

finance, and technology, creating chronic difficulties

in entering the national and global markets with the

products of local enterprises;

 as a result, the decline in market demand for

both traditional products and the development of new

technologies at the expense of local production

resources;

 the continuing outflow of domestic

investment, the restriction of external investment and

its use exclusively in the raw materials sectors of the

Republic of Kalmykia;

 competition in the field of traditional

agricultural sectors of the economy of the Republic of

Kalmykia from neighboring territories that are similar

in natural characteristics of natural and resource

zones;

 reduction of economic production contacts

with neighboring territories, deterioration of the

socio-economic climate, curtailment of cultural ties,

etc.

The analysis shows that the risks of socio-

economic development of the territory similar to

Kalmykia, in general, are grouped as internal and

external. The first group can not only be correctly

evaluated, but can also be regulated by internal

resources. The success of such management is largely

determined by the qualifications and competence of

the territory's management. The second group of risks

is more problematic, because often depends on

external regulators and the effectiveness of the

312

Mandjieva, D.

Ensuring the Economic Security of the Subsidized Region on the Basis of Risk-based Management of Socio-economic Development.

DOI: 10.5220/0010699500003169

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc-Practical Conference "Ensuring the Stability and Security of Socio-Economic Systems: Overcoming the Threats of the Crisis Space" (SES 2021),

pages 312-315

ISBN: 978-989-758-546-3

interaction of administrations, for the territorial

management body there is a difficulty of remote or

indirect risk management. To date, the subjects of the

Federation are required to analyze the strengths and

weaknesses of the development of territories at the

planning stage. This allows to solve part of the

problem, determine the direction of corrective and

preventive actions. But the second part of risk

management-control (monitoring) and the use of

mechanisms for assessing, analyzing and improving

(adjusting risk management) - is difficult due to the

diversity of areas of responsibility, authority,

resource availability, etc.

2 CONTENT AND RESULTS OF

RESEARCH

The analysis of the weaknesses and strengths of the

socio-economic development of the region, carried

out at the initial stage of risk management procedures

in accordance with the provisions of the risk

management standards, allowed us to identify the

factors of GRP growth for the planned period and

identify the reasons and constraints of such growth.

Of course, the analysis is evaluative in nature and

does not cover all possible factors and aspects of the

analysis that is carried out further. First of all, let us

name the obstacles and difficulties that hinder

development. Among them, we can distinguish a

decrease in the volume of mineral extraction (0.3%).

Also in 2018 the growth rate of the volume of

economic development, including foreign trade,

slowed down significantly compared to the previous

year. In 2019 and 2020, the reasons could be the

growing pandemic attacks, so they are excluded from

the review analysis.

For regions and territories that do not contain

large urban agglomerations, one of the typical risk

consequences of the implementation of these threats

is the growing and difficult to overcome gap between

the volume of investment and its results of project

implementation, which is typical for agricultural

products, but not only. There is a well-known

example of land reclamation, when water supply

projects for the arid territories of the Republic were

not implemented. This alone strongly requires the

improvement of the risk-based approach and its

implementation at the state and regional levels. At the

same time, the most important role in the organization

of risk-oriented management at the regional level is

played by regional and local government bodies

responsible for a large group of internal threats and

risks.

It has been shown that a specific risk for territorial

administration is the lack of sufficient reliable,

complete and systematic information. The regulation

of risk events at the stage of forecasting the guidelines

for socio-economic development is essential for the

success and effective management of the territory and

its development. To compensate to some extent for

this disadvantage, special methods and techniques of

modeling and data processing are used to improve the

quality and efficiency of management. In this case,

higher requirements are placed on the qualifications

in the field of risk management for decision makers

in the administrations of regions and territories. It is

also noted that it is necessary to take into account the

behavioral risks of so-called contradictory processes,

to use heuristic methods of decision-making in

conditions of increasing uncertainty, in assessing

various system parameters and impacts and possible

risk outcomes.

It also describes the risk situations associated with

possible man-made, natural and military conflicts. In

these cases, other management standards are

implemented on the basis of the introduction of an

emergency, which is regulated by legal acts of an

emergency nature.

Risk situations related to the territorial and

geographical features of the region in which

organizations are registered as a taxpayer and (or)

carry out their main activities are considered and

described separately. This group of risks requires

separate analysis, assessment and accounting. We do

not study in detail in this work, because this is not part

of the task of the study.

Let's return to the issues of the sustainability of

the functioning of socio-economic systems,

characterized as territories without large urban

conglomerates. This is due to the fact that similar

territories may be characterized by similar risk factors

and possible risk outcomes. A wide range of views on

the sustainability of such territories is reflected in the

works of Avdiysky V. I., Bezdenezhnykh V. M.,

Sinyavsky N. G., Grebenkina S. A. and other

researchers (Indarbayev, 2020; Zemskov, 2019;

Alizada, 2019).

When assessing budget sustainability, the authors

proceed from the assumption that since it is proved

(Avdiyskiy, 2019; Indarbayev, 2019), that it is

impossible to completely avoid risk, optimization

consists in reducing uncertainty and the level of risk

consequences should not exceed the established

values (thresholds). For the budget system, risks are

acceptable, as a result of which the socio-economic

Ensuring the Economic Security of the Subsidized Region on the Basis of Risk-based Management of Socio-economic Development

313

system does not leave the state of stability or is able

to return to this state in the shortest possible time

Podobryaev, 2008).

E. A. Stepanova also considers the budget risk in

relation to budget revenues as the probability of

deviation of the actual budget revenues from the

potential ones (not from the planned ones, as

interpreted by most researchers), taking into account

the most rational use of resources and opportunities

based on new budget planning technologies

(Stepanova, 2011).

In the field of financial stability, A. A. Nikiforova

proposed a definition of a threat to financial security,

which is understood as a set of conditions, factors and

processes that create an asymmetry of financial

resources and the need for them to implement the

socio-economic policy of the municipality and violate

financial independence and critical values of financial

security indicators (Nikiforova, 2007).

These interpretations are, in our opinion, one-

sided, they do not apply to a broad understanding and

definition of the main risk of financial and budgetary

development for the economic systems of the

territories. According to a number of practitioners,

which is shared by the authors of this work, the

complex systemic risk of financial and budgetary

stability and the development of economic security of

a region (municipality) is understood as a set of

financial and economic internal and external

conditions, factors and processes that threaten the

financial and budgetary security of the region

(territory) and carry unacceptable risk consequences

for its development.

There are also transformational and transactional

risks of the development of the regional economic

system based on the grouping of factors of the

regional economic process according to specially

selected cluster features and characteristics.

Further, we emphasize that to identify regional

development risks, it is advisable to use an analysis

of the risks that arise during the formation of these

clusters. The formation of clusters is based on well-

known methods, so we will not dwell on them further.

We will select the groups of features that form the

basis of the cluster classification:

 lack of financial resources for priority support

of the innovation sector;

 tough competition in the global technology

markets, which causes problems in entering the world

market with innovative products;

 incomplete compliance of the level of

professionalism of the personnel of workers and

specialists with the requirements of high-tech

industries.

 risks associated with the financing of state

programs and national projects not in full;

 organizational and managerial risks associated

with non-implementation of measures provided for

by state programs;

 legal risks associated with the lack of

regulatory regulation of the main activities of the

implementation of state programs.

As examples, specific risks that may arise during

the implementation of the activities of the

subprogram "Creating a favorable investment climate

in the Republic of Kalmykia for 2014-2024" were

considered. The following threats and risks are

highlighted:

 financial risks associated with the financing of

the sub-program not in full;

 organizational and managerial risks associated

with the late implementation of the activities provided

for in this subprogram;

 legal risks associated with the practically

insufficient and even lack of regulatory regulation of

the main activities at the level of the Republic and

municipalities of the implementation of the

subprogram.

Further, in our opinion, the analysis of the factors

of formation of threats and risks for the subprogram

"Development of small and medium-sized businesses

in the Republic of Kalmykia for 2014-2024" can be

attributed to:

 The risk of unsuccessful implementation of

the subprogram "Development of small and medium-

sized businesses in the Republic of Kalmykia for

2014-2024" is estimated as minimal (acceptable). At

the same time, the probability that the risk of non-

receipt by the Ministry of Economy and Trade of the

Republic of Kalmykia of the necessary funding for

the implementation of the Subprogram.

 In this case, it will lead to the risky outcome

that several planned activities of the Sub-program

will not be implemented or the funding of the Sub-

Program activities will be significantly reduced.

 It is also necessary to note the possible risks in

the implementation of the Subprogram associated

with the improvement of regulatory support for

activities, which in general may lead to a slowdown

in the development of small and medium-sized

businesses.

The categories of entrepreneurship that are most

at risk include start-up entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs

who are experiencing temporary financial difficulties

for obvious reasons, and developing innovative,

creative and non-traditional, social businesses

(enterprises that use the work of disabled people,

youth businesses, handicrafts, etc.). Their

SES 2021 - INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC-PRACTICAL CONFERENCE "ENSURING THE STABILITY AND SECURITY OF

SOCIO - ECONOMIC SYSTEMS: OVERCOMING THE THREATS OF THE CRISIS SPACE"

314

development is affected by the amount of funding at

the initial stage. The larger the initial capital invested

in the firm, the more opportunities for its preservation

in force majeure and in times of crisis.

The risks that may arise in the process of

implementing the activities of the subprogram

"Ensuring the implementation of the State Program"

may include:

 financial risks associated with the financing of

the Sub-program not in full;

 organizational risks associated with late

implementation of the activities provided for by the

Sub-program;

 legal risks are associated with the lack of

regulatory regulation of the main activities of the

Sub-program.

If we compare the results of the analysis, it is

obvious to identify similar and even overlapping

threats and risks in the implementation of

development programs for the territory of the

Republic of Kalmykia. This allows to form clusters

by risk groups and develop methods for their

regulation. It is also important that many of the

measures can be implemented simultaneously and

have an impact on risk groups at the same time.

3 CONCLUSIONS

Sustainable and economically secure socio-economic

development of the Russian Federation requires the

use of modern management methods and tools,

including, along with other modern methods, also

risk-based management methods.

The problems of wide application of ROP are an

urgent research topic for solving an important

national economic problem of developing and

improving models and programs for ensuring the

economic security of meso-economic entities without

large urban agglomerations. This is especially

important with a limited information database for

making management decisions in the context of

increasing instability in the context of the functioning

of the region.

This paper analyzes the factors and criteria for the

socio-economic development of Russian regions,

identifies the main threats and factors for the

formation of possible risk situations for the socio-

economic development of the region without large

urban agglomerations, and evaluates models and

programs for ensuring the economic security of meso-

economic entities in the region without large urban

agglomerations.

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