Impact of Migration Processes on the Economic Security of the

Region (Volga Federal Okrug)

Marina Nikolaevna Rudenko

Head of the Department of Entrepreneurship and Economic Security, Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of

Higher Professional Education "Perm National Research University", Perm, Russia

Keywords: Migration policy, national security, economic stability.

Abstract: The relevance of the stated topic is determined by the fact that the uncontrolled migration in modern economic

and demographic conditions leads to a significant change in the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the

population, violation of the demographic balance of territories, which negatively affects the economic security

of the state as a whole and its individual geographical regions. The main task of the article is to determine the

degree of impact of population migration processes on the economic security of a geographical region, using

the specific example of the Volga Federal Okrug. The research methodology is based on the combination of

methods of theoretical analysis of population migration processes in the current economic conditions with the

empirical study of the prerequisites for the impact of migration processes on the economic security in the

geographical region as a whole. The obtained results clearly demonstrate the significant importance of

population migration processes in the development of the economic situation in the state and a particular

geographical region and form a qualitative basis for further scientific research on the impact of population

migration processes on the economic security of the region.

1 INTRODUCTION

Throughout the history of Russia, migration

processes have played a very significant role in the

formation of the population and its labor potential.

They have become especially important nowadays

when the volume of migration within the state and in

exchange with other countries is constantly growing.

Therefore, the issues of migration of able-bodied

population are always on the political agenda. Shifts

in a settlement resulting from internal migration are

assessed extremely negatively at the state level

(Budilov, 2019). At the same time, internal migration

should not be considered in isolation from external

migration, so, first of all, it is necessary to highlight

its characteristic features (Anger, Camehl, Peter,

2017). Over the past decade, the following trends in

external migration processes were established in

Russia:

 positive population growth in the period under

consideration, even though from 2011 to 2017

the migration growth of the population

completely overlapped its natural loss, the total

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9377-589X

population in the country at the same time was

increasing, and in 2017 the migration growth

also completely compensated the population

loss and exceeded it by 56%;

 exchange of migration flows of the population

with neighboring countries is quite high,

despite the fact that in 2017 the total volume of

migration with the CIS member states was 6

times higher than the same indicator for non-

CIS countries;

 the population of Russia is mainly replenished

by migrants and displaced persons from

Ukraine, which is the leader in the incoming

flow of migrants among other countries of the

former Soviet Union;

 foreign countries, except the United States,

Germany, China, Japan, Finland, Great Britain,

and Israel, showing a negative balance of

migration exchange (Shaw, Ur-Rahman,

Surjan, Parvin, 2016), take part in the positive

growth of migration population of Russia.

Migration is an objective process of economic

development in all countries of the world, and Russia

Rudenko, M.

Impact of Migration Processes on the Economic Security of the Region (Volga Federal Okrug).

DOI: 10.5220/0010699000003169

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc-Practical Conference "Ensuring the Stability and Security of Socio-Economic Systems: Overcoming the Threats of the Crisis Space" (SES 2021),

pages 297-302

ISBN: 978-989-758-546-3

297

is no exception in this case. On the one hand, it is an

indicator of the life of the population of regions from

or to which migration flows are directed, and on the

other hand, it is one of the directions of state

regulation aimed at the integrated development of

individual territories and the country as a whole.

When working out the mechanism of regulation, it is

necessary to take into account many conditions and,

first of all, the difference of goals pursued by

participants in this process, namely the individual and

the state (Kluge, Goldstein, Vogt, 2019). So, for a

particular resident of a particular country, migration

is, first of all, a given territorial movement in a certain

direction, pursuing increasing personal or family

material well-being, the realization of certain

ambitions, etc. At the same time, from the point of

view of society, a comprehensive and effective

consistent improvement of all spheres of the national

economy is paramount, and, as a result, an imbalance

may arise – the population prefers to migrate from the

north to the south, from rural to urban, etc., but the

opposite directions would be optimal for the state

(Avdeev, Ternovykh, 2019).

Migration has a significant impact on the

formation of labor market trends for both the

individual and the state (Gautier, Casseus, Blanc,

Cloos, 2020). It is important to take into account the

fact that all migration processes are extremely

complex and ambiguous. The demand for labor

resources in specific economic sectors dictates the

need for specific categories of workers, while there

may be significant differences in the labor markets of

individual regions in general, which may be due to the

presence of extremely specialized production in a

particular region (Ghimire, Bhandari, 2020). In

addition, the supply of labor is determined by the

quantitative and qualitative indicators of the local

population and the social and economic development

of the region, determined by the attractiveness for

migrants, which together provide potential

opportunities for the organization of a new type of

production (von Fintel, Fourie, 2019). Hence, the

mechanisms of state regulation of such processes are

not always universal; they shall take into account

specific features of individual regions of the country

(Avdeev, Ternovykh, 2019).

Thus, the impact of migration processes on the

region's economic security is a complex

phenomenon, which should be considered

considering many interrelated factors.

2 MATERIALS AND METHODS

The methodology of this scientific research involves

the combination of methods of theoretical analysis of

migration processes in the current economic

conditions with the empirical study of the

prerequisites for the impact of migration processes on

the economic security in the geographical region as a

whole. The materials used include scientific

developments of a number of domestic and foreign

authors, who considered the problems and issues of

the impact of migration processes on the economic

security of the geographical region as a whole, in a

retrospective analysis of the development of such

trends concerning the Volga Federal Okrug. The

theoretical part of the study is an analysis of scientific

publications, taken as its materials, with the

identification of the currently formed trends of

external and internal migration of citizens on the

territory of the Russian Federation and the impact of

these processes on the economic security of the state

as a whole and its individual regions in particular.

Available statistical data, characterizing the course of

migration processes in the country as a whole and the

Volga Federal Okrug, in particular, are investigated.

Based on the theoretical analysis of migration

processes in the country as a whole and the Volga

Federal Okrug, in particular, the empirical study of

the prerequisites of the impact of migration processes

on the economic security in the geographical region

under consideration is carried out. A practical

comparison of results obtained in the course of the

study is carried out in order to obtain a generalized

picture of scientific research and its final conclusions.

Conclusions obtained clearly reflect the results of the

scientific research in assessing the impact of

migration processes in the Volga Federal Okrug on

the region's economic security. The chosen

combination of materials and methods of scientific

research enables to form a qualitative assessment

picture.

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The impact of migration processes on the region's

economic security is expressed in a constant change

in the population of the region as a whole and the

able-bodied population in particular, which has a

significant impact on the economic situation in the

region as a whole. Migration processes significantly

affect the formation of the employment market both

concerning an individual and the country and its

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geographical region as a whole. In addition, modern

migration trends are significantly different from those

of previous decades. In the global system of migration

processes, contemporary Russia is the third after the

United States and Germany in terms of population

migration (Luzina, Elfimova, Vysotskaya, 2019).

Table 1 below shows comparative data regarding

the number of internal relocations of citizens per

1,000 people as of 2008 and 2017.

Table 1: Number of internal relocations per 1,000

inhabitants in Russia and foreign countries (as of 2008 and

2017).

Countr

2008 2017

Russia 6 12

Australia 17 21

Great Britain 19 25

Canada 9 7

Norwa

22 28

USA 19 15

Sweden 21 25

Japan 23 19

As follows from the data presented in Table 1, for

the period from 2008 to 2017, there is an increase in

average indicators of internal migration both in

Russia and in a number of developed countries in

Europe, Asia, and North America. At the same time,

it should be noted that in Russia the number of

internal migrations of its citizens per 1,000 people has

doubled over this time period, which is the highest

indicator among all the countries taken for the study.

In this regard, addressing the problems of theory and

practical implementation of the concept of economic

security of the state by the instruments of migration

policy on the part of the scientific community is still

relevant. The analysis of existing approaches to

ensuring national security showed the need to find

and use a universal approach to the study of all

components. The creation of an effective migration

policy of the state, which could fully meet the existing

paradigm, is also aimed at addressing the issues of

national security of the state.

The main, currently relevant contradiction

between the state policy of controlling migration

processes and the functioning of the national security

system is the lack of principles for justifying the

needs for a specific number of migrants and the

possibility of their integration into the social and

economic system of the host country. The efficient

practical resolution of this contradiction can be

reached by developing efficient methods based on a

unified, interdisciplinary research methodology,

which has not yet been developed (Litvinenko,

Sidenko, 2015). Table 2 below shows comparative

statistical data on internal migration in the Russian

Federation for the period from 1990 to 2020. (data

presented in thousands of people).

Table 3 below shows comparative statistical data

on external migration in the Russian Federation for

the period from 1990 to 2020. (data presented in

thousands of people).

The data presented in Tables 2 and 3 indicate

serious imbalances between the federal okrugs of

Russia in the formation and development of migrant

flows, and this trend is taking on an alarming scale in

a number of districts of the country. The Volga

Federal Okrug, taken for study, has a negative

migration balance. In the period from 2020 to 2016,

processes of migration exchange reduced the total

population in the region by almost 240.2 thousand

people, which cannot be compared with the total

population in the Jewish Autonomous Region (almost

Table 2: Comparative statistical data on internal migration in the Russian Federation for the period from 1990 to 2020.

Years Arrived In the country In the regions

From other

regions

From foreign

countries

1990 5,176.3 4,263.1 2,415.4 1,847.5 913.3

2000 2,662.3 2,303.2 1,284.6 1,018.5 359.3

2005 2,088.6 1,911.4 1,095.7 815.7 177.2

2010 2,102.3 1,910.6 1,036.9 874.7 191.8

2011 3,415.1 3,058.5 1,705.7 1,352.8 356.5

2012 4,196.1 3,778.5 2,023.6 1,754.9 417.7

2013 4,496.8 4,014.6 2,102.0 1,912.6 482.2

2014 4,624.9 4,046.4 2,069.5 1,976.8 578.5

2015 4,734.5 4,135.4 2,053.1 2,082.8 598.6

2016 4,706.7 4,234.5 2,011.2 2,089.5 575.4

2017 4,709.6 4,032.3 1,987.5 2,086.5 555.4

2018 4,806.4 4,235.6 2,054.6 1,994.3 565.4

2019 4,695.4 4,125.6 2,004.3 2,035.6 574.9

2020 4,711.2 4,243.3 2,054.4 2,089.4 556.4

Impact of Migration Processes on the Economic Security of the Region (Volga Federal Okrug)

299

Table 3: Comparative statistical data on external migration in the Russian Federation for the period from 1990 to 2020.

Years Departed In the country In the regions To other regions To foreign countries

1990 4,720.3 3,990.8 2,303.4 1,687.4 729.6

2000 2,420.6 2,274.9 1,284.6 990.3 145.7

2005 1,981.2 1,911.4 1,095.7 815.7 69.8

2010 1,944.2 1,910.6 1,035.9 874.7 33.5

2011 3,095.3 3,095.3 1,705.7 1,352.8 36.8

2012 3,901.2 3,778.5 2,023.6 1,754.9 122.8

2013 4,201.2 4,014.6 2,102.0 1,912.6 186.4

2014 4,354.8 4,046.4 2,069.6 1,976.8 308.5

2015 4,489.1 4,135.9 2,053.1 2,082.8 353.2

2016 4,444.5 4,131.5 2,041.4 2,089.8 313.2

2017 4,562.4 4,189.5 2,098.5 2,004.3 432.6

2018 4,489.6 4,133.2 2,103.2 2,034.2 354.3

2019 4,654.3 4,208.5 2,065.7 2,143.3 335.6

2020 4,382.7 4,187.6 2,065.4 2,098.3 365.3

163,000 people) and Chukotka (50,000). The Volga

Federal Okrug has an area of 1,036,975 km2 (6.06%

nationwide), with a population of 29,748,000 people

(20.36% nationwide), with a population density of

27.95 people/km2 and an urban to rural population

ratio of 72.37:29.85. The Okrug ranks second among

all regions of the Russian Federation by migration

activity after the Central Federal Okrug.

Relatively stable economic situation, favorable

natural and climatic conditions, relatively high

growth rates of most industrial sectors (machine

building makes up 85% of the Russian car industry,

65% of aircraft construction, 40% of petrochemistry,

etc.) are attractive to migrants in the okrug under

consideration. The okrug has a unique transit location

at the crossroads of international transport routes,

connecting Siberia and the Far East, East Asian

countries with European Russia and European and

CIS countries. From the point of view of the overall

economic situation, negative factors include the

continuing aging of the population (almost 7.6

million people over the working age, or 23.4% of the

total population of the okrug). The partnership

between private and state structures in the educational

sphere, the creation of high standards of health care

and social services have not been properly developed.

There are significant limitations in transport, energy,

and social infrastructure. Agriculture is the most

problematic sector in the Volga Federal Okrug, since

there are significant issues with the decline of

irrigation systems, and there is wear and tear of fixed

assets and depopulation in rural areas of the northern

and western regions of the okrug.

The Volga Federal District shows a persistent

downward trend in the population that takes part in

migration processes within the okrug itself, which has

an extremely negative impact on the economic

situation in the region as a whole. In addition, the total

number and percentage of able-bodied adults leaving

the region increases every year. Moreover, from 2000

to 2016, the total able-bodied population of the Volga

Federal Okrug decreased by almost 20,000 people,

which is extremely unfavorable from an economic

point of view.

Figure 1 below shows the dynamics of changes in

the number of arriving and departing migrants in the

Volga Federal Okrug for the period from 2016 to

2020 as a percentage.

Figure 1: Dynamics of changes in the number of arriving

(blue graph) and departing (red graph) migrants in the

Volga Federal Okrug for the period from 2016 to 2020.

As can be seen from the data presented in Figure

1, in the period from 2015 to 2020, there is a constant

prevalence of the number of departing migrants over

arriving ones in the Volga Federal Okrug. This trend

has an extremely negative impact on the economic

situation as a whole, creating a real threat to its

economic security since there is a tendency towards a

general decrease in the number of able-bodied

population of the Volga Federal Okrug, which, in

turn, will inevitably lead to a shortage of qualified

personnel at industrial and economic facilities located

in this okrug.

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

70,00%

80,00%

90,00%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Table 4. The structure of migration flows and related changes in the Volga Federal Okrug for the period from 2016 to 2020.

Indicator 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Number of highly qualified specialists who received a work permit

in the okrug

4,152 3,854 4,065 4,298 4,275

Number of highly qualified specialists who left for work in other

ions

5,372 4,563 6,543 5,890 6,438

Total number of patents issued for the implementation of

innovations in the industrial secto

20,537 19,872 19,032 17,830 16,950

Number of highly qualified foreign specialists who received a

work permit in the okrug

11,074 8,763 7,565 6,950 6,295

Number of highly qualified foreign specialists who left the okrug

for other re

ions

12,378 10,639 10,739 9,864 10,894

As of 2020, there is a decrease in the total able-

bodied population in the region due to migration

processes by approximately 66,500 people, which is

approximately 2.5% of the total population of this

region. Table 4 below shows the structure of

migration flows in the Volga Federal Okrug for the

period from 2016 to 2020.

As can be seen from the data presented in Table 4,

for the period from 2016 to 2020, there is an

unfavorable economic situation in the Volga Federal

Okrug due to negative trends caused by the processes

of external and internal migration, concerning this

geographic region. There is an annual prevalence of

the number of highly qualified specialists leaving the

region over those entering it to conduct their

professional activities. In addition, there is a

pronounced trend towards a decrease in government

patents issued annually for the implementation of

innovative solutions in the industrial sphere, which

has an extremely negative effect on the prospects for

the economic development of the region and its

economic security.

In order to effectively and qualitatively solve the

identified issues, a significant and consistent

improvement in the quality of information support in

the field of internal migration concerning the

considered region of the Russian Federation is

required. The development and consistent

implementation of statistical observation systems,

implementation of intelligible statistics, and targeted

use of social and logical methods to study the first and

third stages of migration (potential readiness of the

population to change their territorial status, reasons

for moving, settling in, migration tension, etc.) would

be of high practical importance (Budilov, 2017).

The existing imbalance between the regions of an

individual state in the formation of migration flows

has an extremely negative impact on the economic

situation as a whole and is a significant prerequisite

for reducing the level of economic security of the

state as a whole (Rose, Stavrova, 2019). The

prevalence of departing migrants over arriving ones

leads to economic imbalance and a decline in the

reproductive capacity of the labor force, which, in

turn, is a serious prerequisite for economic decline in

the future (Reese, Rosenmann, Cameron, 2019).

Thus, the peculiarities of migration processes in

the Volga Federal Okrug, expressed in the persistent

prevalence of migrants leaving the region over those

staying there for permanent residence, have

extremely negative tendencies in terms of the

economic security of the region under study. In this

regard, the impact of migration processes on the

economic security of the Volga Federal Okrug can be

considered negative.

4 CONCLUSIONS

The issues of studying the impact of migration

processes on the economic security of the Volga

Federal Okrug should be considered complex,

depending on many interrelated factors. As it was

established in the course of this study in the region

under consideration, there is a persistent

predominance of the number of departing migrants

over the arriving ones, and this trend is generally

negative in terms of assessing its impact on the

economic security of the geographical region under

consideration. This conclusion is explained by several

circumstances. First, regional migration processes

affect the able-bodied population, so there is an

annual decrease in the total number of able-bodied

citizens in the okrug. Secondly, as follows from the

results obtained, there is an annual decrease in the

number of the qualified labor force, specialists

capable of solving complex production tasks and, as

a consequence, influencing economic development in

this okrug. Thirdly, the number of patents received

for the implementation of innovations in the industrial

sphere in the Volga Federal Okrug decreases every

year, which can be partly explained by the impact of

migration processes causing the factors listed first in

Impact of Migration Processes on the Economic Security of the Region (Volga Federal Okrug)

301

this list. Fourthly, migration processes partly

indirectly affect the negative processes of population

aging in the region, which is also dangerous from an

economic point of view and does not contribute to an

increase in the level of the region's economic security.

Thus, there is an urgent need for qualitative

regulation of migration processes in the Volga

Federal Okrug. The main goal is to gradually equalize

the ratio of arriving and departing migrants. The trend

that has developed over time is dangerous from an

economic point of view, contributing to the outflow

of the able-bodied population from the region,

decrease in the total number of qualified personnel,

and deterioration of the economic situation in the

okrug. The solution in this context is in the consistent

development and adoption at the state level of

comprehensive programs for the purposeful

development of the region, taking into account all the

above factors.

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