Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development

Parameters

Vera A. Vasyaycheva

Department of Human Resource Management, Samara National Research University, 34, Moskovskoye shosse, Samara,

Russia

Keywords: Modeling, Innovative Development, Efficiency, Sustainable Economic Development.

Abstract: The country's economy sustainable development is accompanied by the formation of favorable conditions for

enhancing the economic structures innovative activity. The presence of variable factors that determine their

qualitative and effective transformation into an innovative path of development determines the need to

identify key parameters that have the maximum impact on the effectiveness of solving the problems of

economic modernization and increasing the country's rating at the world level. Modeling, analysis and

forecasting of the dynamics of these parameters will make it possible to objectively substantiate the basic

factors signs that affect the achievement of strategic goals and ensure the economic system stability.

1 INTRODUCTION

Achievement of a high level of country

competitiveness at the global level, first of all, is due

to the ability of economic systems to quickly adapt to

constantly changing economic conditions

(Gerasimov, Vasyaycheva and Gerasimov, 2018).

The key aspect in solving this issue is to ensure high

sustainability of economic development through the

selection of adequate methods and tools for

conducting economic policy. It should be noted that

significant results can be obtained not only from

creating a favorable climate for the implementation of

state modernization programs, but also by

strengthening the positions of advanced industries,

increasing their added value, investment

attractiveness and export potential.

In this case, the economic policy and the policy of

managing production structures should be

implemented systematically with a clear indication of

strategic guidelines and measures to eliminate

problems and restrictions that restrain the country's

economic growth. Blind copying of the best world

practices may not lead to the desired results and

contribute to a failure in achieving the intended goals

and consequently the economy degradation as a

whole.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5472-937X

Today, the formation of a new mechanism for

innovative economic development requires a detailed

study of the factors affecting key financial indicators

and giving a powerful impetus for structural renewal

and increased business activity of high-tech industries

(Berdnikov and Resnyanskiy, 2020; Malysheva,

Shinkevich, etc., 2016). The identification of the most

significant factors is a fundamental point in the aspect

of identifying the directions of impact on the

effectiveness of the innovative transformation of

economic entities in the new economy and

substantiating the innovative vector of change. The

importance of this approach is emphasized in the

works of Russian scientists (Chirkunova, Anisimova

and Tukavkin, 2021; Kiselev, Korobkov, etc., 2018),

who identify trends and patterns of sustainable

evolution of Russian economic structures

(stimulating and hindering the economy

development) and argue the importance of

developing the methods for determining conditions

for advanced development and growth of the

country's competitiveness in the world ranking.

The well-founded construction of this mechanism

and the prediction of the results of its operation allows

us to identify real opportunities for implementing

structural changes in the management system at the

macro-, meso - and micro-levels. In this paper

presents the results of economic and mathematical

138

Vasyaycheva, V.

Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development Parameters.

DOI: 10.5220/0010587301380142

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 138-142

ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7

modeling of the Russian economy innovative

development which form the basis for the economic

policy effective implementation, adequate use of

borrowed management methods and tools for

technological renewal of production structures

(Bogatyrev, Bulavko, etc., 2018), economic

justification of the need to introduce international

standards into the domestic management practice and

the formation of "cross-cutting" competencies from

the leaders of the strategic and tactical management

levels (Forrester, Ustinova, etc., 2016).

2 METHODOLOGY

The methodological basis of this study is based on

general scientific approaches to the analysis of the

innovative economic development effectiveness –

system analysis, description, dialectical method,

formalization method, correlation and regression

analysis, principal component analysis, statistical

methods of information collection and processing. In

addition the paper uses special methods of cognition:

econometric modeling, forecasting methods,

component, and factor analysis.

The information base of the research includes

statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service

of the Russian Federation, reports of the Ministry of

Economic Development of the Russian Federation,

scientific articles, monographs, abstracts and

dissertations, and other scientific works of modern

scientists and economists.

3 RESULTS

Modeling the parameters of innovative economic

development was based on indicators of economic

activity presented on the official website of the

Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service:



- the number of personnel engaged in

research and development (people);



- the gross value added by sectors of the

economy (million rubles);



- the volume of innovative goods, works,

services by the constituent entities of the Russian

Federation (million rubles);



- innovative goods, works, services, newly

introduced or subjected to significant technological

changes during the last three years in the Russian

Federation (million rubles);



- internal expenditures on research and

development in the constituent entities of the Russian

Federation (million rubles);



- the share of innovative goods, works,

services in the total volume of goods shipped, works

performed, services (percentage);



- funding of science from the federal budget

(million rubles);



- the cost of enterprises innovative activities

(million rubles);



- costs of production and sale of goods

(works, services) of enterprises (legal entities) in the

Russian Federation (million rubles);



- annual turnover of enterprises (excluding

small businesses, etc.) (million rubles);

 i

- gross domestic product (million rubles).

These indicators formed the basis for calculating

the parameters of the country's economic

development, determining the basic components of its

effectiveness and visualizing the priority aspects that

are of dominant importance in the formation of the

constitutive mechanism for the development of the

Russian economy.

To eliminate the multicollinearity of the listed

indicators, integral indicators were calculated,

reflecting the impact on the resulting indicator Y

(indicator of the effectiveness of innovative

development of the economy):

 innovative (indicator of the research and

development effectiveness - X

 personnel (indicator of personnel innovative

activity - X

 financial (indicator of the costs for production

and innovative activities ratio - X

 production and technological (indicator of

production efficiency - X

At the initial stage of constructing an economy

innovative development dynamic model the influence

of each of the factors on the resulting indicator was

studied using the correlation-regression analysis

method. As a result, we obtained models (Table 1)

that can be used to predict the effectiveness of the

economy innovative development for each of the four

factors. Indicators R

and p prove models' reliability

and indicate the significance of the results obtained

from them.

Based on the application of the principal

components method it was found that the factors X

and X

have the greatest impact on Y. The conclusions

significance was confirmed by checking the adequacy

of the constructed models using the Kaiser-Meyer-

Olkin method and the Barlett test.

Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development Parameters

139

Table 1: Dynamic models of innovative economic

development sub-vector efficiency.

Models R

Y = 6,87 + 1,06X

0,99 0,000001

Y = 61,12 + 0,80X

0,94 0,00009

Y = 262,88 - 78,82X

0,88 0,0006

Y = 79,23 + 5,48X

0,71 0,008

A graphical model of the country's economy

innovative development factors as a percentage of the

contribution to the resulting indicator is shown in

Figure 1.

Figure 1: Resources that ensure the economy innovative

development efficiency.

An increase in the share of contributions from the

financial and innovation component to the total

variance will ensure the multiplier effect of the

Russian economy development. This conclusion can

be laid in the basis for the economic policy

development, strengthening the innovative potential

and stimulating the domestic industrial structures

innovative activity growth (7E OLEFMIZ E).

Modeling the dependence of Y on factors X

and

will allow assessing not only the final results that

can be obtained taking into account the current

strength of their impact but also identifying their

marginal and average values at which it will be

possible to ensure high competitiveness of the

domestic economy.

The results of the correlation and regression

analysis are presented in Table 2.

Summarizing the study, we conclude that the

cumulative effect of innovation and financial factors

on the efficiency of innovative development of the

economy can be estimated by the model:

Y = 12,61 + 1,04X

– 0,06

(1)

High values of the coefficient of determination (R

= 0.99) and Fisher's test (F(2.5) = 22.95) and value of

significance level (p-value < 0,000001) indicate the

adequacy of the calculations and the significance of

the results obtained. The same conclusions are also

confirmed by the graph of the initial values of the

resulting indicator and obtained by the model (Fig. 2).

Table 2: Regression Analysis Results.

--- 0,98 -0,04

Std.Erro

of b*

--- 0,02 0,02

12,61 1,04 -0,06

Std.Erro

of b

2,74 0,02 0,02

t(5)

4,59 59,28 -2,70

p-value

0,006 0,0000001 0,04

= 0,99, R

=0,99,

(

2,5

)

=22,95,

<0,000001

This model makes it possible to assess the degree

and nature of the impact of each of the factors on Y.

Thus, the value of the coefficient at X

(1.04)

indicates a strong influence of the effectiveness of

research and development on the effectiveness of

economy innovative development. The value of the

coefficient at X

(-0.06) indicates the inverse

dependence of Y on this indicator and shows that the

degree of its influence is 17.3 times lower than the

influence of X

. This fact indicates the irrational funds

distribution and the low efficiency of their investment

in the production structures development.

Figure 2: Dynamics of the economy innovative

development efficiency indicator.

The current situation requires prompt state

intervention and the implementation of corrective

measures by optimizing management methods and

tools that can increase the responsibility of the

enterprises management for the negative results of

ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure

140

their activities. A retrospective analysis of this

problem allows us to identify the following areas for

overcoming existing pathologies:



the organizational and economic systems

managerial structure improvement;



increasing the high-tech industries top

management responsibility in the aspect of

innovative development strategic tasks effective

solution;



production infrastructure reforming in the

direction of creating adequate conditions for

sustainable economic growth;



promotion of co-competitive development of

basic production industries that provide cross-

industry interaction and synergistic effect;



reduce costs by increasing the level of

personnel competence at all levels of the production

hierarchy and the formation of "

cross-cutting

" KPI.

The

development of high-tech industries on the

ne hand is a platform for attracting investment and

creating a favorable investment climate, and on the

other hand, a motivating factor for creating an

innovative economy with a high level of

competitiveness.

4 DISCUSSION

Thus, the results of modeling the economy innovative

development parameters indicate the dominant

influence of the personnel and production-

technological component of the economic

development of the country and the insufficient

influence of the factors of the innovation and

financial group on its stability. Therefore, the priority

aspect in the formation of the constitutive mechanism

of innovative development of the economy should be

the dispersion approach to the construction of a

conceptual framework for economic management

and the improvement of forms of state support for

economic systems.

The issues of ensuring the sustainability of

economic development are covered in the works of

modern researchers and economists at a fairly high

level. However, the impact of the innovation

component is revealed on the basis of subjective

judgments and its significance is not objectively

justified. Moreover, innovative factors of economic

growth at any level are fundamental, which determine

the advanced nature of the development of the

national economy (Chirkunova, Khmeleva, etc.,

2020). Therefore, an assessment and reasoned

forecast of changes in the dynamics of the resulting

indicators is necessary to monitor the achievement of

strategic goals, proactively analyze the constantly

evolving system and develop an adequate economic

policy. This is the only way to ensure the country's

high competitiveness on a global scale.

The analysis results prove the importance of

increasing the innovative potential and the investment

attractiveness of domestic production structures.

Innovative development is impossible without the

support of the state. Within the framework of a

comprehensive policy, effective conditions are

created to support and stimulate innovation and

investment that lead to the formation of a competitive

economy. As priorities in this aspect, it is necessary

to strengthen the effectiveness of already established

state programs and the infrastructure transformations

currently being implemented in the direction of

digitalization of management impact support

(Bezdudnaya, Gundorova, etc., 2020).

It is worth noting that over the past few years, the

share of economic entities engaged in technological

and managerial innovations has decreased, which

negatively affected the overall state of the economy

and its growth rates. Digital transformation and the

introduction of innovations in the field of information

and communication technologies will directly affect

most of the Russian industrial sectors, as the share of

large companies in Russia is 80% against 40% on

average in comparable countries. From this point of

view, Russia has all the opportunities for economic

growth. However, in many economic indicators, it

lags behind the leaders of the world economy. This is

mainly due to the underdevelopment of the economic

system in the field of innovation implementation and

management (Vasyaycheva, Sakhabieva, etc., 2020).

First of all the effectiveness of domestic economy

innovative development depends on the adequacy of

legislative and organizational and managerial reforms

that stimulate the activities of production structures in

this direction. Increasing their innovation activity and

increasing their investment attractiveness is a

complex, multi-component and strategically

important task, especially relevant in modern

economic conditions. The effectiveness of its solution

determines the state and prospects of economic

growth, the status of the state on the world stage and

the stability of the economic situation as a whole.

Thus there is a need of an integrated approach to

economic policy and development strategy of the

domestic industry with a clear argument key goals

and objectives, methods, technologies and tools for

their implementation taking into account the need to

strengthen financial and innovative components of

economic growth and support personnel and

Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development Parameters

141

production-technological components in a changing

environment.

5 CONCLUSIONS

The study showed that the sustainable development

of the economy should be a priority in the formation

of the innovation policy of economic entities. At the

same time, a clear argumentation of strategic

guidelines is required, based on an objective

justification of the directions of management actions

rationalization.

The economy innovativeness is mainly

determined by the activity of economic structures, the

degree of their motivation to participate in the reform

processes. The results obtained indicate the

innovation activities low efficiency and the

insufficient level of domestic industries innovation

potential in ensuring the country's competitiveness in

the world market. The implementation of

revolutionary changes set in economic policy will

increase the investment attractiveness of economic

systems, revive their innovative activity, increasing

its intensity and providing a multiplier effect.

The paper identifies the priority areas of

economic, scientific and technological development

of the country in modern conditions, ensuring the

expansion of the domestic production structures share

in emerging markets, increasing the competitiveness

of high-tech industries in the world rankings. The

main task of the management system for the

innovative development of the economy is the

rational choice of parameters that allow identifying

"bottlenecks" and hidden reserves for accelerating the

economic growth of domestic production industries.

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