Cognitive Computational Approaches for Weather Forecasting: An
Overview and Progress
Kaushlendra Yadav, Arvind Kumar Tiwari
Kamla Nehru Institute of Technology, Sultanpur, Uttar Pradesh
Department of Computer Science & Engineering
Keywords: Cognitive
computing (CC), ISMR (Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall), numerical weather
prediction (NWP), Big Data Assimilation (BDA), Deep Learning (DL). ARIMA (Auto-
Regressive Integrated Moving Average) Model.
Abstract: From the beginning human always willing to predict the things accurately so that he can be ready for the
consequences of things in advance. Prediction of weather is one of the few tasks that drastically affect
human life. Weather forecasting is an effort to find out the expected weather conditions in advance
(Kothapalli, 2018). In this paper, A Real-time weather forecasting and analysis has been done using the
parameters temperature and humidity. Here correlation analysis is used as a key for prediction in an ARIMA
(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) Model. In the past, we have seen old physical prediction
models that were not much appropriate for the forecast due to the random nature of weather over a long
period. In the current scenario, we see Techniques like Machine learning, IoT, ANN are more robust in
prediction with more accurately and for a longer period. But these things are limited to machines, we want
to make a more advancement by making machine think like a human So that natural intelligence of human
can govern over the machine and we go for prediction in a much realistic way. We can determine new class
of problems using Cognitive computing (CC). it deals with complex problems same way as human tackle
the unknown problems (Sarma, 2016). The purpose of this paper is to analyze weather forecasting using
different computing techniques and design a more efficient prediction model using cognitive computing.
1
INTRODUCTION
The weather forecasting is a task in which human
indulge themselves from the beginning either
scientifically or verbally but accurate weather
prediction always being a challenging task for them
due to the variable nature of weather affecting
parameters that change very frequently, it may
include wind speed, sea surface temperature,
atmospheric pressure, etc.
In the past when people don’t have the luxury of
today’s modern technology they were used to predict
the weather using relative phenomena like if its
cloudy” it will rain or may be its already raining
nearby. They simply try to understand the behavior
of nature from things like wind, sky, moon, clouds,
aroma of air etc. (Refonaa, 2018) In this paper, the
author stated that cognitive computing techniques
give better results compared to statistical techniques.
The ever-changing nature of the atmosphere expects
a high and refined computation to arrive at accurate
results. It turns out to be an indispensable activity
nowadays as most sectors including agriculture,
industries, aviation, etc. are getting highly reliant
upon it. (Goswami, 2014). In this paper, the author
used a REGCM (Regional Climate Model) open-
source Model for predicting the weather parameters
as a dynamic prediction.
We can say that Cognitive computing techniques
can be used to generate solutions for “vague,
ambiguous, qualitative, incomplete, or imprecise
information. This technique also yields a lower
percentage of error in prediction rate. And also it is
more appropriate for subjective and qualitative data.
Cognitive computing studies the development of
self-study programs that naturally interact with
people in complex and adaptable contexts and
changes in language and meaning. These programs
mimic the processes of the human mind, define a
large number of details, discover complexity, test
ideas, make predictions and clues, come to
conclusions, and so on. This is a field of emerging
140
Yadav, K. and Tiwari, A.
Cognitive Computational Approaches for Weather Forecasting: An Overview and Progress.
DOI: 10.5220/0010564200003161
In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Advanced Computing and Software Engineering (ICACSE 2021), pages 140-146
ISBN: 978-989-758-544-9
Copyright
c
2022 by SCITEPRESS Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved
multidisciplinary research, the backbone of artificial
intelligence, integrating and entertaining scientific
results from a variety of fields, such as natural
language analysis, information representation and
consultation, audio and video analysis, neuroscience,
computer-human communication.
2
COGNITIVE COMPUTATIONAL
APPROACHES
In Cognitive computing we try to mimic the human
way of thinking for finding the solutions of complex
ambiguous scenarios. When we are not certain about
the events, then we try to solve things by our own
vision. This thing we can see in IBM’s cognitive
computer system, known as Watson. In this
Technique we see lower chances of prediction error
and produces a better qualitative and subjective data.
2.1
Theory of Cognitive Computing
This paper describes how can we process
information after learning. We can say that learner
has to become an active member in the process.
Learner has to use his skills, wisdom, consciousness,
clues that they have accomplished prior. It is
necessary that learner build his forgiving while
going through different situations on behalf of his
prior experience and intelligence.
2.2
Learner-centered Approach
Learning is a process that depends upon the capacity
of individuals, when we read anything then we relate
this with our existing knowledge data base and try to
figure out the outcome based upon the reasoning.
We can see this cognitive learning approach
while teaching students. Here location, information
and Balance are key parameters for learning
• Housing - We see the transformation from what we
already know to what we are looking for new.
Information how new details are arranged in our
heads next to what we already know.
Balance here we see the balance between what
we already know and what we are learning now
According to Piaget, learning is an association
between the information we already know with new
information. For this we have to create a safe
learning environment. It is a place where inquiring
mind is supported and forbearing is accepted. It is
very important to know how to plan a course or
stream for learning and growth.
• We have to create a fresh insertion of record on the
existing information
Study stuff should be branched into correct parts
and should follow a sequence.
Thoughts of interns should be taken seriously and
their suggestions should be implemented.
2.3
Data Mining Technique
Prediction of weather can be taken by many Data
Mining techniques, Clustering, Decision Trees and
Neural Networks are few of them.
This method is based on the hidden patterns and
relations among them and validate our results by
verification on the input parameters.
Data Mining includes following stages -
1. Assemblage of Data
2. Purification of Data
3. Selection of Data
4. Conversion of Data
5. Tapping of Data
2.4
Fuzzy Logic Technique
Fuzzy logic deals with the sectional truth where
truth vale may differ from completely false to
completely truth. We can say Fuzzy logic find the
degree of truth. It is resemblance to human
reasoning. It is applicable when values are between
absolute true and false. Here we see a membership
function that tells how a variable relates with a Set
to the interval [0,1]
2.5
Genetic Algorithm Technique
It is a heuristic Search Technique and is based on
Darwin’s theory of evolution. It is a searching
process in which most powerful individual are
selected and fittest individual get chance of
reproduction to generate the candidate for upcoming
generation. We can see a famous way to train Neural
Networks is hybrid backpropagation using genetic
algorithm. The shortcoming of this method is that
we assume that weather parameters are not
correlated with each other, so we can’t get the
benefit of correlation analysis. To eliminate this few
authors proposed a modified time series based
weather prediction.
Cognitive Computational Approaches for Weather Forecasting: An Overview and Progress
141
2.6
Deep Learning Technique
Mostly people are confused among Artificial
Intelligence, Machine learning and Deep learning. In
Artificial Intelligence we try to simulate human
inelegancy in machines, that includes all human way
of thinking and working. Machine learning can be
considered as a subset of Artificial Intelligence that
can be used for prediction without explicitly
programmed. It uses past data for prediction.
Machine learning is not much useful when we go for
fields like natural language processing or image
processing that includes a large number of
parameters needed for prediction.
Deep Learning is a subset of Machine Learning
Where we see multiple hidden layers. Deep Learning
can deal with multiple predictors while prediction.
Deep Learning can generate new prediction
predictors besides the input parameters. It is effective
when we have large amount data to deal with.
Deep learning is a subset of machine learning in
artificial intelligence that has networks capable of
learning unsupervised from data that is unstructured
or unlabeled. Also known as deep neural learning or
deep neural network. The objective of our
investigations is to explore the potential of deep
learning techniques for weather forecasting using
rich hierarchical weather representations which are
learned from massive weather time series data.
3
RELATED WORK
We have seen so many weather prediction models in
the past and also see comparative study among the
models for analyzing the performance. (Saima,
2011) In this paper, the author has done a review on
intelligent methods for weather forecasting and
concludes that no existing model is perfect by which
we can predict the weather conditions accurately.
In paper (Echevarría, 2011) Author has described
rainfall prediction through deep learning. Here
Prediction of next day has been done on the basis of
previous day data. The data used for prediction
contains 47 parameters containing temperature,
humidity, wind speed etc. We see author has used a
deep learning based forecasting model. Author
claims better result on behalf of MSE and RMSE.
Heavy Rain conditions are used for testing and
forecasting of light rain is considered as a future
work. Deep Belief Network based on Restricted
Boltz-Mann Machines setup has been used by
analyzing neighboring geographic proximity and
altitude.
In paper (Miyoshi, 2016) Author has shown how
Big Data Assimilation with next generation sensors
and high end computing can improve the numerical
weather prediction. As BDA updates the system
every 30 seconds and with 100-m resolution it can
do precise prediction. In paper (Jain, 2017) Author
has presented how time series data is key component
in prediction of weather.
In paper (Ghosh, 2016)) topic of Fuzzy Logic as
a decision making technique has been introduced. It
was suggested that applications of this technique
could be effectively applied in the area of
operational meteorology. An instance of such an
application, the forecast of the probability of
temperature, was discussed and examples of the
method were presented.
In paper (Vaščák, 2015) Author presented a
compact weather prediction system basically for
industry need that can be used for other fields,
mainly in weather research, transport and firewall
system etc. In paper (Navadia, 2017) Author used
Hadoop based prediction analysis of weather.
Proposed system takes large rainfall data as input
and went for prediction on behalf of day, quantity
etc. to predict accurately. Predictable types of
analysis hold relationship between multiple items in
a risk assessment data set with specific set of criteria
for allocation of points on weight. In paper (Babu,
2017) Author prepared a Wi-Fi based set up for
prediction. It is tried to cut the cost using light part
in terms of cost. In paper (Chen, 2018) Author has
discussed Cognitive Computing while aiming on
three terms, i.e., IoT, big data and cloud computing.
In paper (Abrahamsen, 2018) Author predicted
the temperature using ANN and mainly describe
Python API for data collection. It was explained that
how this data can be used in Machine Learning. In
paper ( Mohammadi, 2015) Author did a survey on
features of IoT Data and difficulty for Deep
Learning Method. We saw several Deep Learning
model based on two main features-IoT Big Data and
IoT Fast Streaming data. In paper (Kunjumon,2018)
Author mentioned different data mining algorithms
for the prediction of weather and concluded that
Support Vector Machines can give batter result with
almost 90% accuracy. In paper (Huang, 2019)
Author describe show in recent years, computer
technology for understanding has grown with
maturity, and programs such as in-depth learning has
provide great performance. It is about designing and
implementing a comprehension model that focuses
on the similarity of sentence questionnaires for
individual Institutions. In paper (Scher, 2019)
Author presented the broadcasting model for
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training the Deep Neural Networks. This Model
produces few days ahead forecasting results. Author
also give thought about how neural network model
is dependent on the timing of training period and
concluded that a seasonal cycle is more effective
compare to the model that having outside of the
season cycle.
In paper (Zantalis, 2019) Author Described how
things vary with the growth of the Internet of Things
(IoT), apps have become more sophisticated and
connected devices are starting to exploit all aspects
of the modern city. We see if we use large set of data
collection, Machine Learning (ML) techniques are
used to further ingenuity and strength of the
application. The field of intelligent transport has
impressed many researchers and has influenced both
the ML and the IoT. In this case, smart transport is
considered to be an umbrella term that includes
route design, parking, traffic lights,
prevention/detection, road maintenance, and the use
of infrastructure. Here Author mainly focuses on
Machine Learning Algorithms and IoT System for
Intelligent transportation system. In paper
(Samsonovich, 2020) Author used eBICA based
structure to simulate emotional and social
intelligence of human. A brief review was done on
making a virtual assistant that will act as a partner of
human in day to day life.
In paper (Krishnaveni, 2020) Author tried to
predict weather using Big Data Analytics. SPRINT
Algorithm has been used for prediction on WEKA
climate Data. Decision tree based approach has been
used for constructing the tree model. In paper
(Holmstrom, 2016) Author presented the application
of Machine Learning for a large period of prediction,
that gives better results over a shorter period of time.
In paper (Bhardwaj, 2019) Author did temperature
prediction and found that Support Vector Machine
gave best result for this compare to other
approaches. He also concluded that for the rainfall
prediction best model was Multi-Layer perceptron.
In paper (Janani,2014) Author Nearly compared
about 10 papers with their problem, and conclude
that Fuzzy Logic and ANN provide better result
compare to others. In paper (Navadia, 2017) Author
did rainfall prediction using HADOOP and predict
min, max and average rainfall in effective way. In
paper (Omary, 2012) Author used Data Mining
Techniques and Artificial Intelligence for upcoming
precipitation based on past data. As climate changes
very often, Statical approaches and Data Mining was
used for better results.
In paper (Vamsi, 2015) Author used ARIMA
Model for weather forecasting that has the quality of
doing appropriate analysis of weather forecasting. In
paper (Reddy, 2017) Author mainly discussed the
various weather predictions models proposed by
different researchers. In paper (Gurung, 2017) A
survey has been done on weather forecasting using
different ANN Architecture of 20 to 30 years. In
paper (Culclasure, 2013) Author discovered the
recent implication of ANN on weather prediction
over a custom Data. In paper (Priya, 2015) Author
told the benefits of Big Data Analytic for weather
prediction. In paper (Kapoor, 2013) Author used a
Sliding Window concept for prediction and this gave
best result except the months where changes take
place very frequently.
In paper (Kumar, 2013) Author effectively
predict maximum and minimum temperature using
ANN and simulation is done using MATLAB. In
paper (Olaiya, 2012) Author forecasted maximum
temperature, rainfall evaporation and wind speed
using ANN and Decision Tree for the city of
Nigeria. In paper (Karunakara, 2019) Author did
weather forecasting on large satellite data and
propose Cumulative Distribution Function (CDA)
for analyzing the complicated weather prediction.
This gives better result in varying climate. In paper
(Muqeem, 2016) Author did a Survey on different
data mining techniques and review these in tabular
format. In paper (Samya, 2016) The main purpose
was to explore various cloudburst forecasting
strategies using Data Mining and Artificial Neural
Network (ANN), in the literature. The most widely
used parameters for analyzing cloudburst forecasts:
temperature, rainfall, evaporation, and wind speed.
From research, know that prediction using big data
analytics is the best solution for obtaining accurate
cloudburst predictions.
In paper (Yonekura, 2019) Author did a short
term prediction on data provided by the network of
private companies. Different Sensors has been used
for collecting the data. In paper (Sheikh, 2016)
discussion was done on various strategies and
algorithms that can be selected to predict the weather
and sheds much light on effective prediction.
Various other integration techniques are used to
maximize application performance. Findings: After
comparing algorithms and the respective integration
process used to maximize performance, a distinction
is attained that will further predict the weather.
In paper (Madan, 2018) Authors have a practice
of checking the continuous decline of the
mathematical line and supporting vector machine
learning strategies that statistical team details of the
groups are consistent and symbolize weather
forecasts or forecasts. Under the proposed system
Cognitive Computational Approaches for Weather Forecasting: An Overview and Progress
143
we tend to focus on the unpopular algorithmic law
that provides close and imminent weather
forecasting results for the next 5 days and finally,
the results are calculated from the mathematical
decision-making tree view and the terms and
conditions vide confusion matrix for accurate and
accurate prediction using Big Data. In paper (Taib,
2015) two data mining techniques Classification and
Clustering has been discussed on time series data.
These can be prepared using feature based and
instance based. In paper (Kalaiyarasi, 2013)
prediction was done on most common parameters
like rainfall, wind speed, temperature, and cold etc.
using various Data Mining Techniques.
In paper (Lee, 2020) Author used 3 kind of
neural networks, multiple layer perceptron,
repetitive, and convolutional, in predicting daily
measurement, magnitude, and magnitude having
input parameters that are higher in frequency than
the investigators used in past. To incorporate this
neural network into visual data from three locations
with different weather features, the authors present
that predicting result with standard input data is
better than predicting the result of non-standard
daily input. In paper (Hewage, 2020) Authors
proposed a low-cost unpredictable weather
forecasting model by examining short-term memory
modeling methods (LSTM) and temporal
convolutional (TCN) networks and comparing their
result with recent machine learning methods,
mathematical prediction methods, and a powerful
integration method, and a well-established climate
study and forecast (WRF) NWP model. In paper
(Haupt, 2018) Author discussed about many
emerging weather forecasting applications that best
combines our knowledge of physics, numbers, and
non-personal intelligence using smart Big Data and
using the Internet of Things. In paper (Jain, 2020)
Author suggested a method of crop selection to
increase crop yields depending on climatic and soil
parameters. It also shows the right time to plant the
right plants used to predict the weather of the year.
Mechanical learning algorithms such as the
Recurrent Neural Network is used to forecast the
weather, and the random forest planning algorithm is
used to select the appropriate plants. The result of
the proposed weather forecasting method is
compared to standard installation networks, which
show better performance results for each selected
weather parameter.
In paper (Lee, 2004) Authors suggested a smart,
intelligent environment based on multiple elements,
namely the intelligent Java Agent Development
Environment (jade), to provide an integrated and
intelligent platform-based e-commerce platform.
In paper (Wibisono, 2018) weather prediction
was made using a new Artificial Intelligence
technique called the Knowledge Growing System.
The Knowledge Growing System uses weather
forecasting methods as the behalf for weather
forecasts. The result shows that decision-making is
necessary when considering OM-A3S predictions
and learning from A3S to obtain good predictive
results.
In paper (Tajane, 2018) Author discussed how a
chat-bot can be helpful in giving good results in a
variety of situations. This uses features of life -
saving messages as Google (Google Assistant),
Amazon (Alexa), Microsoft (Cortana), and Oracle
use a lot of energy and money to research their
clients. In paper (Muthurasu, 2018) Author provided
an idea of how you can get more information from
accurate agricultural data using a large data method.
Large data sets on agricultural systems provide new
insights into advancing advanced climate decisions,
improving productivity, and avoiding unnecessary
costs associated with harvesting, pesticide use, and
fertilizer.
In paper (Shivaranjani, 2016) Author did a
Survey on various Data Mining approaches that he
used for prediction. The aim was to help farmers by
doing precise weather forecasting so that they
nourish the soil and go for worthy production.
Author used Techniques like ANN, Fuzzy Inference
Systems, Decision Tree Methods to achieve this.
4
RECOMMENDATION AND
OBSERVATION
It is observed that traditional methods are not
sufficient for effective weather prediction as they
have certain limitations or we can say that is purely
based upon the previous data and finding the
patterns based on the given data, nowadays we need
a more advance way of prediction that not only use
the computation ability of a machine but also use
analysis power of human. So Cognitive Computing
will be an effective solution to handle weather
conditions that change very frequently. So it is
recommended that we build a system that has
thinking capabilities like a human and work
efficiently like a machine.
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5
CONCLUSIONS
From the above review, It can be concluded that for
accurate prediction of weather we can’t fully rely on
a statistical method of prediction .if we have to
increase the accuracy then we have to use our
cognitive computing methods because these
cognitive methods not only find the result for
provided predictors but these are also able to self-
generate new predictors that will help us in
predicting complex fields where we see a large
number of attributes i.e. Image Processing, Natural
Language Processing Weather Forecasting, etc.
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