THE RESEARCH ON HUMAN FACTORS IN URBAN TRAFFIC

BASED ON THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP

Xiaoqian Du and Juanqiong Gou

School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Haidian district, 100044, Beijing, China

Keywords: Urban transport, Human factors, Causal analysis, Fish bone diagram.

Abstract: In the traffic system consisting of three parts: human, vehicle and road, the people play a leading role and

have a major impact on traffic. From a sociological point, we can summarize the human factors that affect

the transportation, construct the causality diagram of urban traffic and human factors, and propose the idea

of analyzing the causal relationship and the mechanism between people and traffic by using causality. We

hope that through these studies we can provide some reference for the government department’s decision-

making to improve the urban transport.

1 INTRODUCTION

In recent years, under the situation of rapid

urbanization and economic development, China has

gradually increased transport development, which is

reflected in the transport infrastructure, transport,

traffic information and other aspects. However,

subsequent issues have been highlighted, these

problems mainly in the heavy traffic congestion,

frequent traffic accidents and other aspects.

At present, many scholars are researching on the

causes of traffic problems; the city government has

also introduced various traffic policies, trying to

ease the worsening traffic situation. But the effect is

poor. Beijing, Shanghai and other cities appear

frequent emergency of traffic jams. One important

reason is that the existing research on influence

factors of urban traffic is not comprehensive. That

made the real transport policy difficult to remedy.

There are many factors for urban traffic

congestion, such as motor vehicle ownership, road

layout, traffic facilities, traffic management, etc.

However, the human factor is a crucial factor that

cannot be ignored (Fan Xiaoke, 2007) .According to

the system theory point of view, in the transport

system consisting of the people - vehicle -road, the

people played a leading role. Either as participants in

traffic, or as a manager, human factors have a

significant impact on traffic. A recent survey

showed that: the impact of human factors on the

transport accounted for more than 30% (Fan Xiaoke,

2007), such as: motor vehicle occupied by non-

motor vehicle lanes, vehicle lane change or turn

around freely; jaywalking, free across the fence, bus

and taxi occupy the driving road when they stop,

individual car owners experience little friction,

buck-passing and so on. China is the most populous

country in the world, the effect of human factors on

traffic, relative to developed countries, is more

obvious, so under the special circumstances, the

research on human factors in urban traffic is very

important and urgent.

The paper departures from the practice of urban

traffic. It is to explore the impact on traffic and the

mechanism between human factors and traffic.

Through these studies we hope to provide some

reference for the formulation of transport policy.

2 RESEARCH METHODS

2.1 Existing Methods

(1) Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

The AHP, which is short for "Analytic Hierarchy

Process", was first proposed by the America

operations research expert T.L.Satty in the 1970s in

the 20th century. This method was originally used in

the service sector. It is a Method of multi-objective

decision analysis that combined the qualitative

557

Du X. and Gou J..

THE RESEARCH ON HUMAN FACTORS IN URBAN TRAFFIC BASED ON THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP.

DOI: 10.5220/0003585805570562

In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems (PMSS-2011), pages 557-562

ISBN: 978-989-8425-56-0

 2011 SCITEPRESS (Science and Technology Publications, Lda.)

analysis and quantitative calculation. The basic ideas

of the AHP method to solve problem are as follows

(Teng Shaoguang, 2005): Firstly, we decompose the

problem to be different factors according to the

nature of the problem and objectives to be achieved.

Secondly, we stratified the factors to be a

hierarchical structure model according to the

relationship between factors. Thirdly, we analyze the

problem in accordance with the level of the factors.

Last, we get the importance weights of the lowest

level of factors by reference to the highest (which is

the total goals) level of factors.

Teng Shaoguang used the AHP method to

construct a hierarchical structure of the factors that

influence the public traffic in his paper

“Comprehensive analysis of AHP for the factors

affecting the public transport". He proposed to

analyze the importance of various factors by the

AHP method t. At last he got the relative importance

of various factors and ranked them (Wang Hongyu,

2009).

(2) Structural Decomposition Analysis

The SDA, which is short for "Structure

Decomposition Analysis", was first proposed by

Leonfief the research on analysis of the American

input-output charts. SDA's basic idea is to divide the

change of one target variable into several changes of

different elements so that we can identify the degree

of the influence of the various elements. Besides, we

can also carry on the decomposition step by step

according to the need. Ultimately, we can

distinguish the influence degree of the target

variable of the various factors (Zhu Xianghua,

2008).

Both of the two methods above can quantify the

qualitative issue. We can use these two methods to

get the relative importance of the factors. It is

helpful to grasp the key factors, but the relationship

and the mechanism between these key factors are

not clear. It is negative for us to find the source of

the problem. So we have to introduce the causal

analysis method.

2.2 Method of Causality Analysis

At the process of exploring and understanding the

world, we always want to answer the 'why' question.

That is, we want to find the factors and information

to explain the phenomenon. Because of searching

the relatively constant causal mechanism under the

phenomenon, we have the possibility to get and

accumulate our knowledge. In general, the

development of social science research is always

around the "discovery issue", "understand the

problem" and "solve the problem ". As we know,

only the "discovery issue" is not enough to the

progressing of our society. And we should find the

factors under the phenomenon as the entry to solve

the problem. Given the validity of causal analysis

and Based on the conclusions of the causal analysis,

we can predict the future events that may occur

under what conditions and find the means of

controlling them, which provide the method to

develop strategies and to improve our society.

Therefore, causal analysis is the key to the social

science research (Wang Tianfu, 2006).

2.2.1 Introduction to Causality Diagram

Causal analysis is demonstrated through the

Causality Diagram, also known as the special causal

diagram, Fish Bone Figure and Tree Figure.

Causality Diagram is a mapping method to produce

the cause of the problem through the gradual in-

depth study. Causality Diagram establishes the

priorities of the cause of the problem based on the

causality relationship, and display them in the event

generation process, so as to make an intuitive

understanding of the problem for the project

managers. Causality Diagram is a method to find the

basic reason of the problem, each "fishbone"

represents the cause of the problem. A problem is

often caused by a variety of reasons, which can be

showed with the graph of trunk, large branches, the

branches and twigs according to their importance.

So we can understand the problems at a glance and

system. The Causality Diagramcan helps

policymaker’s analysis of the nature of the problem

in-depth, develop strategies and achieve the purpose

of pre-control.

The Causality Diagram applies for analysing the

causes of traffic problems, which has intuitive and

logical features and so on. What’s more, it can

analyze accident overall, analyze individual reasons

and even the specific case.

2.2.2 Making Causality Diagram

(1)Working group including Responsibility Person

for this issue and other human who have the

relations with it, Responsibility Person should have

rich instruction and leadership experience, Joint

effort from us should be taken to create the friendly,

equal, relaxed environment.

(2)The person in charge of the project will identify

ICEIS 2011 - 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems

558

the causes of the problem, and then write on the

blackboard or a triangle box in the right of the White

paper. Meanwhile, draw a horizontal line in its tail

that is known as the backbone of the fish.

(3)Members of the working groupneed to draw the

lines which form45 angle with backbone, and they

are called big bones that is used explain the main

reason causing the problem.

(4)Further refinement of the cause of the problem,

and then draw the middle bone, small bone and so

on, as far as possible all the reasons listed.

(5)Schemata of causality need to be modified to

optimize the order

(6)According to the schemata of causality (Refer to

Picture 1) for discussion.

Figure 1: Causality Diagram.

The schemata of causality cannot solve problems

presented by numerical values, rather by the

arrangement of the level of cause and effect to

indicate the relationship. Therefore, it can well

describe the qualitative issues. When making the

schemata of causality of traffic problems, the

designer should pool the wisdom of the masses and

try to find the reasons causing the traffic accidents

whether large or small objectively and

comprehensively, then markers in the map.

Social research methods generally include

qualitative and quantitative research. Qualitative

research mainly uses interviews or documents and

materials by narrative techniques. Although the

number of samples is small, the information

involved when solving the research problems is

extensive and thorough. On the other hand,

quantitative research uses statistical analysis

methods by taking social survey data. The data of

the quantitative research is highly targeted though

the sample size is large. This research method

usually focuses on several specific aspects of some

object of study, and it hopes to draw some general

conclusions. The traffic is a complex system

consisting of many social factors which are difficult

to quantify, therefore, based on the large number of

documents and materials, we do only qualitative

research to the socio-cultural factors of traffic

problems by using Schemata of Causality.

3 THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP

BETWEEN URBA N

TRANSPORT AND HUMAN

FACTORS

3.1 Determine the Human Factors in

Urban Transportation

Transportation is “the blood circulation system” and

the bottleneck of Social and economic system. There

is of great theoretical and practical significance in

the research of transportation. So, transport

problems and the impact factors of traffic attract

many scholars’ attention (Liu Zhiping, 2005).

The current study of traffic distributes in

industrial theory, economics, urban studies, ecology,

geography, environmental science research.

However, the existing research is based on the

transport system, its elements and related

engineering studies, Traffic, especially the social

characteristics of urban traffic is of little concern.

Zhang Huimei said that: The traffic, as a

human instinct behaviour, has a human itarian

and social nature, and it is the content of human

life. In addition, he considered the current study

patterns cannot effectively ensure the sound

operation of traffic in the social systems, and it is

necessary to do social science research on transport

phenomenon (He Yuhong , Xing Yuanmei ,2004).

At present, some scholars began to study the

traffic problem from a sociological point of view.

Some scholars have proposed some solutions and

established precise mathematical models, but they

are all simulated in the ideal state. These models can

apply in the early case of less traffic in the city, but

the modern transport system is a complex system

with large random and many influence factors. So,

many scholars have studied traffic problems by

systems approach.

Wang Jian, from Southeast University, analyzed

the impact factors of passenger transportation in the

paper of "prediction of big city ’passenger

transportation structure" from the macro, meso and

micro level. These factors include economic

development, transport policy, transport and travel

THE RESEARCH ON HUMAN FACTORS IN URBAN TRAFFIC BASED ON THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP

559

characteristics, and etc (Wang Jian, 2006).

Gu Xiaomin, from ChangAn University,

analyzed the factors affecting the traffic capacity in

the paper of "Factors of urban road capacity "mainly

from the point of view of the transportation

infrastructure, traffic management and traffic

participants (Gu Xiaomin, 2009).

Wang Hongyu ， in the paper of " Study of

Beijing Urban Transport " ， analyzed the traffic

problems in Beijing from the perspective of car

ownership, mode of transportation, road layout,

traffic management, traffic participants’ quality and

level of civilization (Wang Hongyu, 2009).

Yuan Hongwei considered that in the road traffic

system, component of people, vehicles, roads and

environmental, people are the only independent

variable of the four elements. Therefore, people are

the core of the Transport system, and the studies of

traffic problems should focus on human factors

(Yuan Hongwei, 2006).

From these studies, we can extract the main

factors affecting the traffic: transport infrastructure,

human consciousness, the quality of traffic

participants (including education), transport culture,

transportation management, and traffic behaviour

and so on.

3.2 The Analysis of the Causal

Relationship between Traffic and

Human Factors

We've already introduced the main research

methods, proposed by current domestic scholars, on

traffic problems, such as Analytic Hierarchy

Process, Structure Decomposition Analysis. There

are also some scholars began to study the traffic

problems with causal analysis method.

On the basis of accessing to a large number of

documents and experts, Ye Xinna extracted the

reasons for causing a traffic accident and analyzed

the causes of traffic accidents by causal analysis

diagram and AHP in her paper of “Analysis of the

causes of Traffic Accidents based on causal analysis

diagram and AHP"(Ye Xinna, Yuan Hongchuan,

2008).

Pan Hai analyzed the common and basic cause

and effect diagram of transport system in the paper

of “The basic causal relationship four transport

system” .He also gave a new cause and effect

diagram of our transport system based on the current

situation and a lot of literature at home and abroad.

Based on the previous research, we believe that

the traffic is not only a transport and access systems,

but also a social system. Now people generally

agreed that traffic is made up of three parts: People,

vehicles and road, which is referred to 3S system.

People have a very significant effect on traffic.

According to the method of fish bone diagram,

we have to draw the cause and effect diagram

between urban traffic and human factors. The “fish

head” of fish bone diagram said the problems to be

solved, that is, the problems the transport system

composed of people, vehicles, and road faced.

According to the foregoing, we can summarized the

cause of transportation problems as four categories

from a sociological point of view .That is the quality

of the traffic participants, traffic management,

Transport facilities and social factors. Each category

includes a number of possible factors, such as

education level, lack of road capacity, layout is

unreasonable, transport policies and regulations are

incomplete and so on. The reasons for the 4 class

and its related factors are distributed at the trend of

fish bones in order to form a fish bone analysis

chart. As figure 2 shows:

Figure 2: Cause and effect diagram of traffic factors.

It can be seen from the diagram that traffic

participants, traffic management, Transport

infrastructure, and social factors have an important

effect on the transportation system. But the

traditional fish bone diagram can only show the

causal relationship between the results and the

various elements, but cannot explain the relationship

between elements. So, we do some changes on the

traditional fish bone diagram in order to show the

causal relationship between each of the elements.

Arrows in the figure represent the direction of

causation, all influence are positive. Describing the

causal mechanism means the results of the action

process. We can divide Cause and effect diagram

ICEIS 2011 - 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems

560

into is a number of causal chain, and choose two

chains to illustrate.



Transportfacilities

Awarenessof

Traffic

Management

Trafficculture

Traffic

Psychology

Traffic

Education

Behaviour

Figure 3: Improved cause and effect diagram of traffic

factors.

3.2.1 The Psychological Factors in Traffic

For a society, culture is the most powerful force of

habit. A media has published a story that A English

teacher in China across the street spend more than a

month. Every time the foreigner who took to the

streets faced the traffic whiz and had felt

overwhelmed, I do not know how to cross the road

safely. No matter whether there is a zebra crossing,

cars are rarely stopped; At the junctions with traffic

lights, regardless of red light or green light,

pedestrians often ignore, which made him cannot

decide whether to go.

In the first month, the foreigner across the road

all by the help of his girlfriend .However more than

a month later, the foreigner has been adapted to this

way of crossing the road, do the same as people

stroll the streets. This shows the level of culture and

cultural awareness of participants will affect traffic,

poor traffic culture is difficult to breed naturally

good traffic civic awareness, resulting in herd, the

bad luck of traffic psychology.

The level of education will also affect of

consciousness and psychology of traffic

participants. By collecting information and

observation we found that people with high levels of

education tend to have better traffic awareness and

traffic psychology.

Weak sense of traffic is bound to have adverse

psychological effects on the traffic. The poor

awareness of traffic is recognized as a fact by all. A

lot of people take traffic rules as child's play. For

example, we often run a red light. Red light running

has become a common social phenomenon, but the

frightening thing is that people mostly don’t feel

ashamed, and do not feel anything wrong. Some

large trucks don’t stop but sped away when they

meet the red light. Weak sense of traffic will

inevitably lead to bad traffic psychology, and thus

lead to bad traffic behaviour.

Figure 4: The psychological factors in traffic.

3.2.2 Influencing Factors of Traffic

Behaviour

Awareness of

Traffic

Participants

Traffic

Management

Traffic

Psychology

Transportfacilities

Traffic

Behaviour

Figure 5: The traffic behaviour in traffic.

Participants of Traffic include transportation

planners, decision makers, managers and

pedestrians. Traffic awareness of the participants

will be able to affect traffic behaviour through the

impact on traffic psychology, traffic management

and transport facilities, and ultimately affect the

entire transport system.

As everyone knows that many defects in

planning project decision mainly bring about

crowded traffic. Meanwhile, government policy-

makers are lack the knowledge about town planning

and predictability in some cities. For example, AS

parking phenomenon are not take into account, now

very many vehicles use parking spaces, which

disrupt the normal traffic order. It certainly reflects

that the transportation planners and decision-makers

should raise traffic awareness.

In addition, the occupation of roads and

sidewalks problems has not effectively solved. Many

new roads were soon occupied by kinds of vendors,

markets and vehicles parks in many cities, which

make lacking of roads worse and mainly leading to

many negative traffic behaviours.

THE RESEARCH ON HUMAN FACTORS IN URBAN TRAFFIC BASED ON THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP

561

To have good traffic behaviour, traffic

participants must improve traffic awareness, foster

good traffic psychology, develop the proper

transport planning and improve traffic management.

4 SUMMARIES AND OUTLOOK

Based on previous research, we summarized the

human factors of traffic from a sociological point of

view. such as: human consciousness, the quality of

participants in transportation, traffic culture, Traffic

management, and traffic behaviour and so on .Then

we figure out the causal relationship between human

factors and traffic by the Causal Analysis method.

Under the existing Hardware facilities of traffic,

we can largely alleviate the traffic problems through

the improvement and adjustment of these factors.

Though traffic hardware is important, the human

factor is equally important. Only control and

improve the both, can we really prescribe the right

medicine, and fundamentally solve the traffic

problems.

Due to Limited time and the capacity of author,

This paper only made a preliminary analysis on

urban transport from a qualitative point of view, but

doesn’t do further research from a quantitative point

of view. There still remain some deficiencies and

areas for improvement in this paper, and we will

improve it in theory Research and practical

application.

REFERENCES

Gu Xiaomin. 2009. Factors of Urban Road Capacity.

Chang An University of China.

Liu Zhiping. 2005. Urban Traffic Management and

Control System .Shandong University of China.

Teng Shaoguang. 2005. Comprehensive Analysis of

Influencing Factors by AHP on Public Transport .

Journal of urban public transport.

Wang Jian. 2006. The Prediction of City Passenger

Transportation Structure. Southeast University of

China.

Wang Hongyu. 2009. Beijing Urban Transport Research.

Central University for Nationalities.

Yuan Hongwei.2006. Psychology based on Pedestrian

Traffic Unsafe Behavior. Beijing Jiao tong University

of China.

Zhu Xianghua. 2008. Analysis Method of Urban

infrastructure investment results. Beijing Jiao tong

University of China.

He Yuhong, Xing Yuanmei. 2004. Traffic sociology.

Journal of Theory Monthly.

Wang Tianfu. 2006. Causal Analysis in Social Research.

Journal of Sociology.

Causality analysis. Badu Encyclopedia.

Http://baike.baidu.com/view/2399078.htm

Fan Xiaoke. 2007. Research on Urban Traffic Congestion.

Journal of China Public Security.

Ye Xinna, Yuan Hongchuan. 2008. AHP based on

causality analysis charts and Causes of Traffic

Accidents Law.

APPENDIX

This paper was supported by “the Fundamental

Research Funds for the Central Universities

(2009JBM030)”.

ICEIS 2011 - 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems

562