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Authors: Yuh-Wen Chen 1 ; Moussa Larbani 2 and Chao-Wen Chen 3

Affiliations: 1 Institute of Industrial Engineering and Technology Management, Da-Yeh University, Taiwan ; 2 Dpet. of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics, IIUM University, Malaysia ; 3 Hospital of Kaohsiung Medical University, Taiwan

Keyword(s): Patient Flow, Prediction, Affinity Set, Neural Network.

Abstract: Predicting the time series of emergent patient arrival is valuable in monitoring/tracking the daily patient flow because these efforts keep doctors alarmed in advance. A prediction problem of the time series generated by actual arrival of emergent patient is considered here. Traditionally, such a problem is analyzed by moving average method, regression method, exponential smoothing method or some existed evolutionary methods. However, we propose a new affinity model to accomplish this goal. Our data of time series is actually recorded from hour to hour (hourly data) for three days: the data of the first two days are used to generate/train prediction model; after that, the data of the final/third day is used to test our prediction results. Two types of model: affinity model and neural network model are used for comparing their performances. Interestingly, the affinity model performs better prediction results. This hints there could be a special pattern within the time series generated by actual arrival of emergent patient. (More)

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Paper citation in several formats:
Chen, Y.; Larbani, M. and Chen, C. (2008). PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF EMERGENT PATIENT BY AFFINITY SET. In Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems (ICEIS 2008) - Volume 5: CIAS; ISBN 978-989-8111-39-5; ISSN 2184-4992, SciTePress, pages 273-277. DOI: 10.5220/0001723402730277

@conference{cias08,
author={Yuh{-}Wen Chen. and Moussa Larbani. and Chao{-}Wen Chen.},
title={PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF EMERGENT PATIENT BY AFFINITY SET},
booktitle={Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems (ICEIS 2008) - Volume 5: CIAS},
year={2008},
pages={273-277},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0001723402730277},
isbn={978-989-8111-39-5},
issn={2184-4992},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems (ICEIS 2008) - Volume 5: CIAS
TI - PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF EMERGENT PATIENT BY AFFINITY SET
SN - 978-989-8111-39-5
IS - 2184-4992
AU - Chen, Y.
AU - Larbani, M.
AU - Chen, C.
PY - 2008
SP - 273
EP - 277
DO - 10.5220/0001723402730277
PB - SciTePress

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