Authors:
Marat Safiullin
1
;
2
;
Leonid Elshin
1
;
2
;
3
and
Aliya Abdukaeva
1
;
2
;
3
Affiliations:
1
GBU "Center for Advanced Economic Research of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan", Kazan, Russia, Russian Federation
;
2
Kazan Federal University, Kremlin Street, 18, Kazan, Russia, Russian Federation
;
3
Kazan National University of Science and Technology, Karl Marx Street, 68, Kazan, Russia, Russian Federation
Keyword(s):
Blockchain Technologies, Economic Growth Dynamics, GDP, Blockchain Systems, Cointegration, Scenario Analysis, Risks.
Abstract:
Blockchain technologies arouse intense interest in both business entities and government regulators with a
certain level of uncertainty about generated effects both for themselves and for the national economy as a
whole. The distributed data storage technologies are becoming an integral part of the modern economy and
have an increasing impact on the prospects and competitiveness of its development. To understand the "depth"
of their impact, possible changes in socioeconomic dynamics under the action of blockchain technology
diffusion, it is very important to develop methodological approaches to a formalized assessment of risks and
opportunities for the national economic system in the context of the issue. The purpose of this study is to
strengthen the positions of formalized approaches to the stated scientific and practical problem. The paper
proposes an impact algorithm of the blockchain technology on GDP dynamics through the transformation of
key parameters of economy fina
ncial and real sectors. The implemented analysis and argumentation, it was
substantiated that the integration of blockchain technology into economic processes of the national economic
system will most significantly affect the change in the financial results of credit institutions, increase the
capital availability of economic agents, as well as accelerate the processes of socialization of access channels
of business entities to financial markets (greater access of economic agents to stock trading platforms) Based
on proposed and tenable hypotheses, a cointegration model has been developed, making it possible to
determine the main effects and potential impact of possible transformations of economic activity (most
susceptible to changes as a result of blockchain technology diffusion) on GDP dynamics. The resulting
estimates of the sensitivity of economic dynamics to considered adjustments made it possible to identify the
potential for economic growth as a result of possible integration of blockchain technology into the economic
environment.
(More)