Authors:
Juite Wang
1
;
Chuan-Hung Cheng
1
;
Yung-I Lin
2
and
Chih-Hsin Chang
3
Affiliations:
1
National Chung-Hsing University, China
;
2
National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Taiwan
;
3
National United University, Taiwan
Keyword(s):
R&D, Risk Management, Real Options Analysis, Managerial Flexibility.
Related
Ontology
Subjects/Areas/Topics:
Agents
;
Applications
;
Artificial Intelligence
;
Bioinformatics
;
Biomedical Engineering
;
Decision Analysis
;
Enterprise Information Systems
;
Information Systems Analysis and Specification
;
Methodologies and Technologies
;
Operational Research
;
Project Management
;
Resource Allocation
;
Risk Management
;
Simulation
;
Software Engineering
;
Software Project Management
Abstract:
Although the importance of R&D is well understood by technology-based firms, with the increasing uncertainty in technology development and market trends in recent years, managing uncertain R&D projects to enhance competitive technological position is still a major challenge for those firms. This research develops a technology planning framework that integrates R&D risk management with real options analysis enables technology-based firms to allocate their limited R&D resources with managerial flexibility for maximizing the expected market value of R&D project under uncertainty. The proposed technology planning framework consists of four stages: technology roadmapping, risk identification, risk response planning, and flexible plan optimization. Since technology development usually involves great uncertainty at early R&D stages, the Monte-Carlo simulation optimization technique is applied to evaluate and select optimal technology plans under different scenarios. The developed methodolog
y is illustrated with a case study of ASIC power module technology development project in Taiwan.
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