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Authors: Bożena Mielczarek and Jacek Zabawa

Affiliation: Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wyb. Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wrocław and Poland

Keyword(s): Hybrid Simulation, Healthcare Demand, Population Ageing.

Related Ontology Subjects/Areas/Topics: Discrete-Event Simulation ; Formal Methods ; Simulation and Modeling

Abstract: This paper explores the consequences of demographic changes on future access to hospital beds. It is based on the situation in a Polish administrative region called the Wrocław Region (WR). The aim of the paper is to quantify the impact of population ageing on hospital demand with particular emphasis on neurological patients. A computer simulation model was used to project the population evolution during the period 2016-2030 and forecast the number of neurological patients to be admitted to the WR hospitals. We found that the growth of the WR population will have a large impact on the number of elderly patients, including persons with diagnosed neurological disorders. The simulation experiments predict a continuous rise in the demand, and the ageing alone will increase the number of neurological patients in WR, on average, by 8.5 % between 2016 and 2030.

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Paper citation in several formats:
Mielczarek, B. and Zabawa, J. (2018). Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand. In Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH; ISBN 978-989-758-323-0; ISSN 2184-2841, SciTePress, pages 459-466. DOI: 10.5220/0006904404590466

@conference{simultech18,
author={Bożena Mielczarek. and Jacek Zabawa.},
title={Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand},
booktitle={Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH},
year={2018},
pages={459-466},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0006904404590466},
isbn={978-989-758-323-0},
issn={2184-2841},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH
TI - Impact of Population Ageing on Hospital Demand
SN - 978-989-758-323-0
IS - 2184-2841
AU - Mielczarek, B.
AU - Zabawa, J.
PY - 2018
SP - 459
EP - 466
DO - 10.5220/0006904404590466
PB - SciTePress

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