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Authors: Marc Wenninger 1 ; Jochen Schmidt 1 and Toni Goeller 2

Affiliations: 1 Rosenheim University of Applied Sciences, Germany ; 2 MINcom GmbH, Germany

ISBN: 978-989-758-241-7

Keyword(s): Real Time Pricing (RTP), Household Appliance Usage Prediction, Demand Side Management.

Related Ontology Subjects/Areas/Topics: Energy and Economy ; Energy-Aware Systems and Technologies ; Load Balancing in Smart Grids ; Optimization Techniques for Efficient Energy Consumption ; Smart Grids

Abstract: Shifting energy peak load is a subject that plays a huge role in the currently changing energy market, where renewable energy sources no longer produce the exact amount of energy demanded. Matching demand to supply requires behavior changes on the customer side, which can be achieved by incentives such as Real-Time-Pricing (RTP). Various studies show that such incentives cannot be utilized without a complexity reduction, e. g., by smart home automation systems that inform the customer about possible savings or automatically schedule appliances to off-peak load phases. We propose a probabilistic appliance usage prediction based on historical energy data that can be used to identify the times of day where an appliance will be used and therefore make load shift recommendations that suite the customer’s usage profile. A huge issue is how to provide a valid performance evaluation for this particular problem. We will argue why the commonly used accuracy metric is not suitable, an d suggest to use other metrics like the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) or F 1 -Score instead. (More)

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Paper citation in several formats:
Wenninger, M.; Schmidt, J. and Goeller, T. (2017). Appliance Usage Prediction for the Smart Home with an Application to Energy Demand Side Management - And Why Accuracy is not a Good Performance Metric for this Problem.In Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Smart Cities and Green ICT Systems - Volume 1: SMARTGREENS, ISBN 978-989-758-241-7, pages 143-150. DOI: 10.5220/0006264401430150

@conference{smartgreens17,
author={Marc Wenninger. and Jochen Schmidt. and Toni Goeller.},
title={Appliance Usage Prediction for the Smart Home with an Application to Energy Demand Side Management - And Why Accuracy is not a Good Performance Metric for this Problem},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Smart Cities and Green ICT Systems - Volume 1: SMARTGREENS,},
year={2017},
pages={143-150},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0006264401430150},
isbn={978-989-758-241-7},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Smart Cities and Green ICT Systems - Volume 1: SMARTGREENS,
TI - Appliance Usage Prediction for the Smart Home with an Application to Energy Demand Side Management - And Why Accuracy is not a Good Performance Metric for this Problem
SN - 978-989-758-241-7
AU - Wenninger, M.
AU - Schmidt, J.
AU - Goeller, T.
PY - 2017
SP - 143
EP - 150
DO - 10.5220/0006264401430150

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