Authors:
Endroyono
;
Suwander Husada
and
Yoyon K. Suprapto
Affiliation:
Department of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Institute Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Indonesia
Keyword(s):
Econometric, Passenger Prediction, Airport Masterplan.
Abstract:
The volume of passengers at the airport in the future needs to be predicted. From several air passenger
prediction methods, one of them is the econometric method. This method has the excellence of long-term
predictions and gaining knowledge of economic factors that affect the volume of air passengers. In this study,
several economic factors, such as hotel occupancy, population, rupiah exchange rate, tourism visitor, inflation,
and the Banyuwangi Consumer Price Index (CPI), were analyzed. Pre-analysis data needed before building
the model, including data selection, data description, data pattern recognition, and data completeness. The best
econometric model is obtained from the results of the combination test of each variable. The best econometric
model is used to predict the volume of air passengers in Banyuwangi airport for the next 20 years. From the
results, three factors significantly effect the volume of air passengers, that is, hotel occupancy affect 0.301%,
population affect 0
.132%, and the rupiah exchange rate affect -0.481%. To evaluate the accuracy of predictions
using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a value of 15,208 %.
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