Authors:
Mahbub Ul Alam
1
;
Aron Henriksson
1
;
John Karlsson Valik
2
;
3
;
Logan Ward
4
;
Pontus Naucler
2
;
3
and
Hercules Dalianis
1
Affiliations:
1
Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
;
2
Department of Infectious Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
;
3
Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
;
4
Treat Systems ApS, Aalborg, Denmark
Keyword(s):
Sepsis, Early Prediction, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Health Informatics, Healthcare Analytics.
Abstract:
Sepsis is a life-threatening complication to infections, and early treatment is key for survival. Symptoms of sepsis are difficult to recognize, but prediction models using data from electronic health records (EHRs) can facilitate early detection and intervention. Recently, deep learning architectures have been proposed for the early prediction of sepsis. However, most efforts rely on high-resolution data from intensive care units (ICUs). Prediction of sepsis in the non-ICU setting, where hospitalization periods vary greatly in length and data is more sparse, is not as well studied. It is also not clear how to learn effectively from longitudinal EHR data, which can be represented as a sequence of time windows. In this article, we evaluate the use of an LSTM network for early prediction of sepsis according to Sepsis-3 criteria in a general hospital population. An empirical investigation using six different time window sizes is conducted. The best model uses a two-hour window and assum
es data is missing not at random, clearly outperforming scoring systems commonly used in healthcare today. It is concluded that the size of the time window has a considerable impact on predictive performance when learning from heterogeneous sequences of sparse medical data for early prediction of sepsis.
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