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Authors: Carlos Timoteo ; Meuser Valença and Sérgio Fernandes

Affiliation: University of Pernambuco, Brazil

Keyword(s): Software Project, Risk Management, Risk Analysis, Support Vector Machine, MultiLayer Perceptron, Monte Carlo Simulation, Linear Regression Model.

Related Ontology Subjects/Areas/Topics: Artificial Intelligence ; Artificial Intelligence and Decision Support Systems ; Biomedical Engineering ; Biomedical Signal Processing ; Computational Intelligence ; Enterprise Information Systems ; Health Engineering and Technology Applications ; Human-Computer Interaction ; Methodologies and Methods ; Neural Network Software and Applications ; Neural Networks ; Neurocomputing ; Neurotechnology, Electronics and Informatics ; Pattern Recognition ; Physiological Computing Systems ; Sensor Networks ; Signal Processing ; Soft Computing ; Theory and Methods

Abstract: Many software project management end in failure. Risk analysis is an essential process to support project success. There is a growing need for systematic methods to supplement expert judgment in order to increase the accuracy in the prediction of risk likelihood and impact. In this paper, we evaluated support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), a linear regression model and monte carlo simulation to perform risk analysis based on PERIL data. We have conducted a statistical experiment to determine which is a more accurate method in risk impact estimation. Our experimental results showed that artificial neural network methods proposed in this study outperformed both linear regression and monte carlo simulation.

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Paper citation in several formats:
Timoteo, C.; Valença, M. and Fernandes, S. (2014). Evaluating Artificial Neural Networks and Traditional Approaches for Risk Analysis in Software Project Management - A Case Study with PERIL Dataset. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 3: ICEIS; ISBN 978-989-758-027-7; ISSN 2184-4992, SciTePress, pages 472-479. DOI: 10.5220/0004885704720479

@conference{iceis14,
author={Carlos Timoteo. and Meuser Valen\c{C}a. and Sérgio Fernandes.},
title={Evaluating Artificial Neural Networks and Traditional Approaches for Risk Analysis in Software Project Management - A Case Study with PERIL Dataset},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 3: ICEIS},
year={2014},
pages={472-479},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0004885704720479},
isbn={978-989-758-027-7},
issn={2184-4992},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 3: ICEIS
TI - Evaluating Artificial Neural Networks and Traditional Approaches for Risk Analysis in Software Project Management - A Case Study with PERIL Dataset
SN - 978-989-758-027-7
IS - 2184-4992
AU - Timoteo, C.
AU - Valença, M.
AU - Fernandes, S.
PY - 2014
SP - 472
EP - 479
DO - 10.5220/0004885704720479
PB - SciTePress