Demographic Aspect of Sustainable Development of the Samara

Region, Russia

Мarina Е. Tsibareva

, Irina V. Horina

and Мaksim А. Brazhnikov

Samara National Research University, Samara, Russia

Samara State Technical University, Samara, Russia

Keywords: Demography, Region, Sustainable Development of Regions, Labor Resources, Demographic Factors,

Demographic Potential, Population, Economic Growth, Economic Development.

Abstract: The article analyses the demographic factors affecting the sustainable development of Russian regions. The

impact of demographic factors on sustainable development is primarily determined by the number of human

resources. Population decline leads to a reduction of labor potential and further reduces employment and the

volume of the regional product. This theoretical fact is proved by the author's calculations. Using statistical

methods for producing trends and increases estimates, including by the base year, the demographic trends of

the Samara region of Russia were identified in the context of its sustainable development. An analysis of the

population size showed population and labor resources decline in the region. An analysis of economic

indicators also shows a reduction in the volume of the regional product. All this confirms that demographic

factors have a direct impact on the sustainable development of the region and its economic growth. The

deterioration of the demographic situation causes the proposal to continue the implementation of the pension

reform in the region, as well as to provide the possibility of improving the quality of education and educational

level of the older population in order to compensate the decrease in the labor efficiency of the analyzed

category of the population. The sustainable development of the regions depends on a sufficient number of

labor resources in the present and future, which makes it necessary to focus on restoring the region's ability

to reproduce the population.

1 INTRODUCTION

The sustainable development of the regions is a

priority for ensuring the external and internal security

of the state. Regional policy should reflect the

country's sustainable development goals. One of

these priority goals is to improve the demographic

situation, which varies significantly in the regions.

The fundamental documents for the development

of the Strategy for the sustainable development of the

regions are the Constitution of the Russian

Federation, the Law "On Security", the National

Security Strategy of the Russian Federation and the

Strategy of the Economic Security of the Russian

Federation for the period up to 2030 and a set of

regional and local legal acts. Thus, sustainable

development of a region is understood as the ability

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of a region to survive and improve development

indicators in the face of external and internal threats.

Together with the concept of sustainable

development, it is also considered such concept as

national security and economic security - a state in

which the economic independence and sovereignty of

the region is preserved in the face of external and

internal threats. Considering the above, the concept of

"economic stability" can be defined as the ability of a

region to the economic growth based on an increase

in demographic potential in the face of external and

internal threats (Tsibareva, 2013). Demography

provides a basis for assessing the impact of

population on national security.

The sustainable development has been associated

with environmental issues since 1972. The

deterioration of the ecological situation began to

426

Tsibareva, M., Horina, I. and Brazhnikov, M.

Demographic Aspect of Sustainable Development of the Samara Region, Russia.

DOI: 10.5220/0010591804260432

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 426-432

ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7

affect human health, its ability to reproduce and self-

development (Bhargava, 2019). Bhargava A.

associates sustainable development with fertility, and

believes that it is necessary to monitor demographics

that threaten sustainable development. So, to assess

human potential, the UN introduces an indicator that

takes into account the level of education, health, life

expectancy, income level, quality of life, called the

human development index (Tsibareva, 2019).

Thus, there is a connection between the

sustainable development and human resource

development. Some authors put forward the idea that

demographic decline (population decline) results in

the decline of cities and regions, which is a justified

necessity, but only in some parts of the region, for the

sake of the sustainable development. The authors

apply a regional landscape approach to preserve the

sustainable development of the region (Segers et al.,

2020).

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Demographic factors influence the economic and

sustainable development of the country. To reveal

this phenomenon, we took into account the research

of scientists carried out in this field of science.

In our work, we considered the sustainable

development of regions as a change in demographic

indicators and socio-economic indicators. The gross

regional product, the number of the labor force and

the number of the employed population are used as

socio-economic indicators. Among the demographic

indicators, the population of the region, the number

of men and women, the number of natural population

growth, the number of the able-bodied population, the

population over the working age, and the proportion

of the population over the working age in the total

population were selected. The analysis was carried

out from 2000 to 2020. All economic and

demographic indicators were calculated in dynamics

based on the growth rates and increase, as well as the

increase to the base year 2000.

The assessment of the demographic situation in

the region was carried out in order to determine the

rate of growth and increase in the population, assess

the ability to reproduce the population, increase in the

able-bodied population and the population over the

working age, and increase the aging of the population.

Demographic indicators are analyzed from 2000 to

2020.

Statistical data were taken on the official website

of the Federal State Statistics Service - Unified

Interdepartmental Statistical Information System

(EMISS) - https://fedstat.ru/, and on the territory site

- Territorial Body of the Federal State Service for the

Samara Region - https://samarastat.gks.ru/

Thus, the authors applied general scientific

cognition methods, search method, analysis method,

factor analysis, statistical method, graphical method,

and mathematical method.

3 RESULTS OF RESEARCH

Demographic factors are becoming a source of

sustainable development for the region. There is a

connection between economic growth and

sustainable development of the country and

demographic factors.

Demographic changes are characterized by such

factors as population size, birth rate, mortality,

migration, which reflect the state of the sustainable

development in a certain territory (in the region).

It should be noted that with all the independence

of the manifestation and change of demographic

processes, their depth and intensity depend on the

socio-economic conditions of living and functioning

of people. Thereupon, the living conditions of people

affect the demographic processes (Figure 1).

Since A. Smith, many scientists have wondered

about the impact of demographic factors on economic

development.

Figure 1: Sustainable development of the region in terms of

demographic factors.

If there is a rise in unemployment, then the

increase in production slows down. The following

demographic factors, such as aging population,

deteriorating health and low wages can have a

negative impact on employment. Consequently, the

lower the demographic potential of the region, the

lower the employment.

Consider some demographic potential indicators

of the of the Samara region. For this purpose the

population growth in the Samara region is shown in

The

economic

growth

Living

conditions

Population

growth

Sustainable

development

of the region

Employment

growth

Labor

productivity

growth

Demographic Aspect of Sustainable Development of the Samara Region, Russia

427

Figure 2 on the basis of the Federal State Statistics

Service data.

Figure 2: Population growth in the Samara region, %

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

Figure 2 illustrates that there is an outflow of the

population in the Samara region during the study

period of 2000-2020. The whole problem of the

demographic situation in the Samara region is

especially well demonstrated by the growth/outflow

indicator against the base year, in this case, by 2000.

So, for a long time until 2017, the outflow remained

at the level of -2.5%, but then it accelerated and by

2020 amounted to more than 3%.

Next, let us consider the indicators of population

reproduction in the region

Figure 3.

Figure 3: Natural population growth/decline of the Samara

region, people*

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

Figure 3 illustrates the population decline in the

Samara region from 2000 to 2019. At the same time,

the population decline decreased from 2000 to 2016,

and then from 2017 to 2019, the decline began to

increase. The decline in 2019 amounted to 11,057

people, which is 9.8% more than in 2018.

Population decline occurs more among men and

less among women (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Population growth in the Samara region by gender

by 2000, %

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

Figure 4 shows that the number of men and

women declines in 2000-2020. In 2020, the decline in

the number of men reaches almost 5%, women more

than 2%. Since the rate of decline in the number of

men is higher, there is a threat of extinction of the

male population. The burden of doing hard work falls

more and more on women.

The demographic decline has led to a decrease in

the labor potential of the Samara region. Consider the

change in the able-bodied population in the Samara

region (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Growth of the able-bodied population of the

Samara region by 2000, % *

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

Able-bodied age should be considered:

 for men from 16 to 59 years old and from

January 1, 2020, from 16 to 60 years old;

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 for women from 16 to 54 years old and from

January 1, 2020, from 16 to 55 years old.

Figure 5 illustrates that the able-bodied

population from 2011 to 2020 in the Samara region is

decreasing. Consequently, the labor resources in the

region is decreasing. And in 2020, by 2000, the

population decline reached 10.5%.

A labor resources reduction leads to a decline in

regional production, and the region's population

becomes poorer. The consequences of a labor

resources reduction for the region can be extremely

tragic, such as the poverty of the region, its

attenuation (extinction), as well as a decrease in the

living standards and incomes of the population in the

region, which characterizes unsustainable

development and economic recession. At the same

time, the part of the able-bodied population is

decreasing: in 2019 was 54.5%, in 2015 was 57.1%

and in 2005 was 63.1%.

The impact of demographic factors on the

sustainable development of the region is increasing

with the growth of the population aging. Next,

consider the dynamics of the population aging in the

Samara region (

Figure 6).

Figure 6 shows that the population over the

working age in the Samara region is growing rapidly

from 2009 to 2020. In 2020, by 2000, the population

growth over the working age was 23.5%.

Figure 6: Population growth over working age in the

Samara region by 2000, %*

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

The growth of the older population took place not

only in absolute terms but also in proportion to the

total population of the region. So the part of the

population over working age in 2019 was 27.8%, in

2015 was 25.8% and in 2005 was 21.7%. It is seen

that the growth of the population over the working

age and its part in the total population are increasing.

The analysis of the demographic situation in the

Samara region made it possible to identify the

following demographic problems that hinder the

sustainable development of the regions and the

improvement of economic indicators:

 total population decline in the region;

 excess of death rate over birth rate;

 the rapid decline in the male population,

threatening its extinction;

 able-bodied population decline in the region;

 region's population aging.

Demographic problems threaten the sustainable

development of the regions with a shortage of labor

resources and a decrease in the ability to reproduce.

Most significantly, demographic indicators affect the

employment rates of the population Figure 7. The

analysis of labor resources is carried out according to

the indicator of the number of labor resources in the

Samara region, and a trend line is also laid.

Figure 7: Increase in labor resources in the Samara region,

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

Figure 7 shows that the labor resources have been

declining from 2000 to 2019, and the downward slope

of the trend line underscores this trend. In 2019, by

2018, the labor resources decreased by 1.44%.

Let us consider the dynamics of the employed

population in Figure 8. The population has been

declining from 2000 to 2020. The largest employed

population decline occurs in 2009 and further in 2017

(Figure 8).

Demographic Aspect of Sustainable Development of the Samara Region, Russia

429

Figure 8: Employed population growth in the Samara

region, %*

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

In 2020, by 2019, the employed population

decline was 1.01%.

The volume of labor force affects the volume of

the gross regional product (GRP). The GRP analysis

can be carried out according to the indicator: the GRP

growth rate and GRP per capita (Fedorov and

Kuznetsova, 2020).

The GRP dynamics in terms of growth

rates/increases of the indicator is presented in Figure

9, and a linear trend line is drawn.

Figure 9: Gross regional product growth in Samara region,

*Source: author's calculations based on the Federal State

Statistics Service data.

Figure 9 illustrates that the regional product of the

Samara region is decreasing from 2005 to 2018. The

regional product decline is also indicated by the

downtrend line.

Figure 9 illustrates a strong decline in the regional

product of the Samara region in 2009, after which the

growth rates only slowed down.

4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The authors analyzed the trends in the demographic

and economic indicators of the region.

The population decline is revealed, the rate of

decline has significantly increased since 2017. The

population decline in the Samara region in 2020 by

2000 reached more than 3%.

The population decline is detected during the

period from 2000 to 2019. The decline in 2019

amounted to 11,057 people, which is 9.8% more than

in 2018.

The population decline has affected the male

population to a greater extent. Thus, the decline in the

number of men in 2020 by 2000 was about 5%,

women more than 2%.

The deterioration of the demographic situation is

observed in terms of the able-bodied population.

Thus, the decline is observed from 2011 to 2020. At

the same time, in 2020 by 2000, the able-bodied

population decline reached 10.5%.

The able-bodied population decline is also

confirmed by the decrease in the part of the able-

bodied population, from 63.1 in 2005 to up to 57.1%

in 2015 and up to 54.5% in 2019

The population aging of the region was revealed,

which began to accelerate from 2009 to 2020. In

2020, by 2000, the population growth over the

working age was 23.5%. The part of the population

over working age in the total population also

increased from 21.7% in 2005 to 25.8% in 2015 and

to 27.8% in 2019. The population aging negatively

affects the labor market. Andreea Claudia Serban also

believes that the old labor resources are not able to

adapt and accommodate to the external new working

conditions, indicating the inevitability of the

economic growth decline in the event of population

aging (Serban A.C., 2012). It is proposed to raise the

educational level, primarily, among the able-bodied

population.

All demographic factors affected the labor

resources and the employed population decline in the

Samara region. Thus, the labor resources and

employment have been declining from 2000 to 2019,

which is clearly seen in Figure 7 and Figure 8. The

linear trend in the labor resources is downward.

At the same time, the labor resources and the

employed population decline affected the volume of

the regional product, which has been decreasing from

2005 to 2018 (Figure 9).

Thus, we have established the relationship

between the demographic and economic indicators of

the sustainable development of the Samara region.

Thus, demographic factors have an impact on the

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430

economic growth of the region. Changes in

demographic factors are determined by the living

conditions of the population and the level of wages.

Consequently, demographic indicators are a way of

assessing, including the living conditions of a person,

his prosperity and wealth, as well as the wealth of the

region, its sustainable development. Some authors

also consider and refer the condition and trends of

human capital to the conditions of sustainable

development (Sodiq et al., 2019).

The growth in the number of high-quality labor

resources affects the economic growth and the

sustainable development of the region, which is

determined by increasing labor efficiency and

improving the living conditions of the population.

The presence or absence of opportunities in the region

for the development of human capital generates social

and economic incentives for the population, which

lead to resettlement in territories with favorable living

conditions. The lack of opportunities leads to the

extinction of the population in regions with

unfavorable living conditions.

The economic indicators of the Samara region

from 2000 to 2020 decreased significantly.

The highest threat to economic growth and

sustainable development of the Samara region is

posed by the able-bodied population decline. To

maintain the population, we propose to continue to

carry out pension reform in the region, which will

allow retirement at a later date, increase the

educational level among the older population, as well

as by attracting students to vocational schools. Some

similar activities are proposed by scientists from

China, including urbanization to increase the

workforce (Cao et al., 2020).

5 CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of trends in demographic factors in the

Samara region showed a deterioration in the

demographic situation from 2000 to 2020.

The population aging, the labor resources decline,

and the reduction in the volume of the regional

product are revealed.

The main conclusions are as follows:

 demographic and economic indicators are

interrelated;

 population decline leads to a decrease in the

sustainable development of the region;

 a decrease in the number of labor resources

leads to an economic recession and a reduction

in the volume of the regional product;

 the population aging reduces the efficiency of

work, even if the pension reform is applied to

increase the period of retirement, since the

quality of work of the older population is

decreasing for objective natural reasons

(physical activity decreases);

 for the sustainable development of regions, it is

necessary to strive to increase the population of

a young age, to improve the quality of

education and educational level of the

population.

The fact that the methodology of measures aimed

at increasing the population of the region in general

and the labor resources of the region separately has

not been sufficiently developed can be considered as

an unsolved problem. The validity of certain

measures to increase the population size implies the

development of labor resources effective number

model in the context of limited resources in the

region.

To assess the potential for population growth with

a simultaneous growth in economic resources.

To assess the regional potential of economic

resources and determine the minimum and maximum

size of the total population and the number of labor

resources.

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