Sustainable Development of the Baikal Natural Territory:

Opportunities and Risks

Sergey Kirillov

, Sergey Nikonorov

and Alla Pakina

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory 1, Moscow, Russian Federation

Keywords: Baikal Natural Territory, Sustainable Development, Regional Strategies, Development Risks, Socio-Cultural

Factors.

Abstract: The current strategies of socio-economic development of the regions located within the Baikal Natural

Territory (BNT) are often based on economic priorities as a driver and the material basis for social and

environmental goals achievements. A major challenge for the regional development is the balance between

Lake Baikal preservation and improving the quality of life. The results of a comparative analysis of the factors

of economic development and its pressure on environment of the region were analyzed in the study. The

strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and risks of sustainable development of the region were identified

and compared. A key role of preserving Lake Baikal as a factor of environmental stability, self-identification

of the local population and the basis of economic development of the region, as well as the importance of

regulating nature management taking into account the interests of the local population, is justified.

Conclusions about the value of BNT for residents of adjacent territories based on the data of social surveys

are drawn, and priorities for the strategy for sustainable development of the region are formulated.

1 INTRODUCTION

The complex of economic, social and environmental

problems caused by extensive development of the

regions within the boundaries of the Baikal Natural

Territory (BNT) assumes developing an integrated

approach to their solution in accordance to the

concept of sustainable development (SD). Despite the

controversial nature of the term and its weak

representation in the legal field of the Russian

Federation, the concept of SD defines development

priorities both at the national and regional levels.

Sustainability of region is the process suggested to

improve the quality of human life within the

limitations of the global environment (Jovovic et al.,

2017). The preparation and publication in 2020 The

Voluntary National Review of the progress made in

the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for

Sustainable Development (Voluntary national

review…, 2020), in Russia became an important

signal for the sphere of regional strategic planning to

continue the work on implementation of SD

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6583-7747

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8205-2140

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2403-8399

principles in practice. At the same time the Review

considers the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

mainly in the sectoral context, without reference to

regional differences. Thus, the main document that

defines the targets for the regional development as

well as ways for their achievement today are regional

strategies for socio-economic development. The

compliance of all spheres of society life with the SD

principles based on the comparison of long-term

priorities with budget opportunities is the main

principle of determining the long-term prospects in

the strategies of socio-economic development of

regions (Ilyina et al., 2015). This approach

emphasizes the importance of achieving economic

goals as a factor of the material basis for achieving

social and environmental goals and corresponds to the

principles of a “green” economy (Pakina, 2014). In

this regard, the development of regional strategies for

sustainable development and their implementation

into practice is an urgent task, especially important

for regions with a unique cultural and natural-

ecological basis, such as the Baikal region.

Kirillov, S., Nikonorov, S. and Pakina, A.

Sustainable Development of the Baikal Natural Territory: Opportunities and Risks.

DOI: 10.5220/0010591704190425

In Proceedings of the International Scientiﬁc and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 419-425

ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7

419

2 METHODOLOGY

The study of the problems and prospects of

sustainable development requires an integrated

approach. The presented study is based on the authors'

field studies in the Irkutsk region and the Republic of

Buryatia from 2017 to 2019, as well as statistical

materials and strategic planning documents for the

study region. Within expedition research,

comprehensive geoecological studies were

conducted, including sociological surveys of the local

population, interviews with representatives of

administrations, landscape and environmental

studies. Comprehensive socio-ecological studies in

the Irkutsk region were conducted with the authors

participation in the summer season of 2019, and in the

Pribaikalsky and Severobaikalsky districts of

Buryatia in 2017-2018. Due to massive development

in the coastal waters of the lake Baikal filamentous

algae (including Spirogyra sp.) the research was

partly devoted to identification of the risk factors for

aquatic ecosystems. Other part of research was

focused on assessment of the impact of the regional

economy on ecological condition of Lake Baikal and

the BNT on the basis of statistical data and a

comparative analysis of environmental, economic

and social indicators of development, with the

involvement of rating assessments. The conclusions

on the socio-ecological significance of the Baikal area

for the local population were based on sociological

surveys results.

3 RESULTS

3.1 Indicators of the Baikal Natural

Territory Regions Development

The Baikal Natural Territory is a strong example of a

region developing under severe environmental

restrictions. Three subjects of the Russian Federation

are partly located within the borders of the BNT:

Irkutsk Region, Republic of Buryatia and

Zabaikalsky Krai. The total area of the BNT is 386

, it also includes Lake Baikal and its catchment

area within the borders of the Russian Federation, the

water protection zone and the specially protected

natural territories adjacent to the lake. The current

structure of nature use and management at the BNT

has formed under the specifics of economic activity

and environmental restrictions determined by Federal

Law No. 94-FZ of May 01, 1999 “On Protection of

Lake Baikal” and the special legal status of Lake

Baikal as a unique water object included in the

UNESCO list of World Natural Heritage Sites.

Currently all regions of the BNT have long-term

development strategies: the Strategy of socio-

economic development of the Irkutsk Region for the

period up to 2036 (adopted in 2020), the Strategy of

socio-economic development of the Republic of

Buryatia for the period up to 2035 (2019) and the

Strategy of socio-economic development of the

Zabaikalsky Krai for the period up to 2030 (2013).

According to Federal Law No. 172-FZ “On Strategic

Planning in the Russian Federation” of June 28, 2014

the strategy of socio-economic development of the

subject of the Russian Federation is a strategic

planning document that defines the priorities, goals

and objectives of public administration at the level of

the subject of the Russian Federation for the long

term. The same law also states that the forecast of

socio-economic development of the Russian

Federation for the long term provides an assessment

of the achieved level of socio-economic development

and (in accordance to sustainable development goals)

the definition of internal conditions of development

of the subject of the Russian Federation for the long

term, including the main indicators of demographic

and technological development, environmental and

natural resources. In fact, the law establishes the need

to assess the results of the regional economy

development, taking into account social and

environmental indicators. Equally important is the

indication of drivers and limitations of economic

growth of the subject of the Russian Federation for

the long term, which can be interpreted as a SWOT

analysis.

The analysis of regional development strategies

should be carried out taking into account a broader

view of the strategic planning tasks, proposed, in

particular, by experts of the intellectual business club

“Baikal Strategies” (Baikal strategies, 2018).

Considering regional development strategies as

documents defining the strategic techniques for the

creation an economy in harmony with the

environment, the identification of “strengths” and

“weaknesses” of the region in order to concentrate

resources on the most competitive areas of

development is necessary.

GRP analysis demonstrates that all the regions

located at the BNT have positive dynamics of

economic development, but relatively intensive

growth is typical only for the Irkutsk Region (Fig. 1).

According to the Strategy of the Irkutsk Region

this is one of the leading regions of the Siberian

Federal District in terms of the most important

macroeconomic indicators: gross regional product,

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420

profitability of enterprises, tax return, investment in

fixed assets, etc. (Strategy... to 2036). Numerous

integrated assessments of the socio-economic

development of the Irkutsk region, which is quite

large in size, confirm that this region has resources

for innovative development, including through the

formation of clusters (Vikhoreva et al., 2019).

Figure 1: GRP dynamics of the regions within Baikal

Natural Territory (mln. RR) (Source: Rosstat).

Comparison of socio-economic indicators of the

BNT regions (Table. 1) also confirms that the Irkutsk

region is a leader within the Baikal Natural Territory:

it occupies leading positions in terms of average

monthly nominal salary, volume of produced and

shipped products, average per capita income, etc.

(Regions of Russia, 2019).

Table 1: Socio-economic indicators of the Baikal Natural

Territory regions development.

Indicators Irkutsk

region

Zabaikalsky

Krai

Republic of

Buryatia

Total area, thousand

774,8 431,5 351,3

Population, thousand

eople

2404,2 1100 984,5

Average nominal

salary per month, RR

42 647 40 740 36 047

Volume of produced

and shipped products

(total), billion RR

1255,788 169,777 121,6

Mining industry, % 48,1 63,8 23,0

Manufacturing

industries, %

40,9 14,0 54,0

Average per capita

income per month,

24 434 23 992 24 081

Unemployment rate,

7,5 10,2 9,3

Retail trade turnover

er capita, RR

144 951 154 257 180 022

3.2 Opportunities and Risks for the

Development of BNT Regions

The possibilities of combining socio-economic and

environmental interests are poorly used in modern

development programs, while in the course of

complex assessments socio-economic indicators

should be supplemented with environmental ones.

From this point of view, the Human Development

Index (HDI), which takes into account the difference

in the level and quality of life can be considered.

According to (Human Development Report…, 2016),

Moscow (0.952), St. Petersburg (0.935), the KhMAO

and the Tyumen Region (0.908) for a number of years

remain the leaders of the HDI rating among the

regions of Russia. The Jewish Autonomous Region

(0.801), the Chechen Republic (0.800), and the

Republic of Tyva (0.786) are still lagging behind.

Among the regions of BNT only Irkutsk region is

located in the middle of the list with the indicator

0,865. Two other regions have low positions, close to

the end of the list: 0,826 for Republic of Buryatia and

0,822 for Zabaykalsky Krai. This values confirms the

data mentioned above: ignoring the environmental

consequences of economic growth creates the illusion

of relative prosperity in the Irkutsk region, whereas

the real situation in all BNT regions is featured by

high degree of environmental risk, that worsen over

time.

Such conclusions can be confirmed by the results

of a study conducted by the rating agency "RAEX-

Analytics" (Investment risk..., 2019). Among the

investment risks in the Irkutsk region the main one is

an environmental risk, the value of which exceeds the

national average, the second one is a management

risk, which is also high. According to the rating data

2017 Irkutsk region belongs to the regions with the

average potential and moderate risk (2B), whereas the

Republic of Buryatia is the region with low potential

and moderate risk (3B1) and Zabaykalsky Krai

belongs to the regions with low potential and high risk

(3С1). The regions retained similar positions in 2018-

2019. At the same time, a comparably high

management risk (along with criminal one) is typical

for the Republic of Buryatia, while for the

Zabaykalsky Krai, environmental and economic risks

come to the forefront.

Dynamics of environmental pollution within the

boundaries of the BNT in the period from 2005 to

2017 shows that the scale of the impact remained

quite high even after the closure of the Baikal Pulp

and Paper Mill (BPPM) in 2013. Despite a significant

reduction of the total volume of discharges from this

plant, there is a periodic increase in the discharge of

500000

1000000

1500000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GRP dynamics

Republic of Buryatia Zabaikalsky Krai

Irkutsk region

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421

pollutants, and wastewater treatment is not provided

to the level of permissible discharges for petroleum

products, surfactants, chlorides and some other

substances (Zengina et al., 2020; State report…,

2018). Extremely dangerous environmental risk

factor for Lake Baikal – about 6 million tons of sludge

waste (lignin), located at the shore line and requiring

disposal (Table 2).

Table 2: Dynamics of environmental impact within the

boundaries of the BPT.

Region Risk sources

localization

2005 2017

Atmospheric air emissions from stationary sources,

thousand tons

Irkutsk region Irkutsk cit

49,3 74,8

Baikalsk cit

5,5 0,4

Slud

anka cit

2,7 1,3

Republic of

Buryatia

Severobaikalsk cit

4,4 2,6

Ulan-Ude cit

30,3 28,9

Discharges to surface water bodies, mln m

Irkutsk region Baikalsk cit

36,7 1,3

Sludyanka cit

1,7 0,9

Republic of

Buryatia

Ulan-Ude cit

40,7 20,6

Gusinoozersk cit

264,4 491,3

Waste generation, thousand tons

Irkutsk region BPPM 121,6 4,4

Sludyanka cit

139,0 247,5

Republic of

Buryatia

Severobaikalsk cit

18,6 н.д.

Ulan-Ude cit

275,6 285,8

During the period air emissions increased in

Irkutsk, discharges to water bodies in Gusinoozersk

city almost doubled, and the amount of waste

increased in Slyudyanka and Ulan-Ude. The impact

of atmospheric emissions from the Irkutsk region on

the BNT has increased. But the biggest concern is

probably related to the increasing volume of

discharges in the lake at the Severobaikalsky district

of Buryatia (State report…, 2018). The result of the

impact was, in particular, the spread of Spirogyra

algae in the lake's water area, which seriously

threatens the ecosystem of Lake Baikal (Zengina et

al, 2020). Such important indicator as the share of the

population living in particularly polluted cities (% of

the total population of the regions) also remains very

high. There are 8 cities with a registered level of

pollution above 10 MPC in the Irkutsk region, and 2

cities in each of two other regions (Nikonorov et al.,

2019).

The total share of the population exposed to such

pollution is approximately the same in the Irkutsk

Region and the Republic of Buryatia (over 45%). The

current environmental situation in the region

confirms the insufficiency of management decisions

focused solely on the limitations of economic

development as a factor of anthropogenic pressure.

Current system of environmental management

does not reduce environmental risks within the BNT

boundaries and also does not contribute to improving

the quality of life. A comparison of economic

development opportunities and environmental risks

on the BNT (sort of SWOT analysis) shows its

strengths and weaknesses. The presence of the unique

natural object Lake Baikal in the region contributes

not only to recreation development, but also serves

the largest source of fresh water and a reservoir of

biodiversity. Together with a high resource potential

of BNT and its border position to the Asia-Pacific

countries, in particular sustained economic ties with

Mongolia and China, these factors can be considered

as strengths of the region, providing a high growth

potential. In turn, unsustainable use of resources,

threatening recession of economic development and

geographical location caused high rates on air and rail

transportation, environmental restrictions on

upcoming activities, high capital costs, lack of

infrastructure and high energy intensity of production

are threats to development.

It should be noted that among the weaknesses of

environmental management at the BNT are mainly

institutional and infrastructural factors, which must

be taken into account in further planning. To

stimulate socio-economic development of the region

it is necessary to develop special mechanisms similar

to proposed in the sub-program “Protection of Lake

Baikal and the Baikal Natural Territory” within the

framework of the approved Federal target program

“Ecology and Natural Resources of Russia” (2012-

2020). Ten indicators were selected to assess the

conformity of development to major environmental

requirements: reduction in the share of the BNT area

subjected to high and extremely high pollution,

reductions of discharges of polluted wastewater,

share BNT covered by the state environmental

monitoring, etc. (Kirillov et al., 2016). Recognition of

the complex ecological and economic nature of the

development problems at the level of strategic

documents (programs, plans) is a very important

condition for the transition to indicators that take into

account the environmental situation. Clear

identification of the problem in the development

programs is also a condition of appropriate funding.

Along with this the consideration of the region as a

single object of management contributes to

environmental management optimization and

development of the Baikal Natural Territory on the

basis of environmental priorities (Gagarinova et al.,

2018).

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422

4 DISCUSSION

Socio-cultural factors play a very special role in

developing the strategy of sustainable development of

the Baikal Natural Territory – a region that is unique

in many respects. The thesis about the determining

role of culture does not require additional

explanation: it is known that the development of the

same institutions gives different results depending on

socio-cultural ground (Auzan, 2017), and culture is a

significant factor in determining the future social

development (Nasibulina, 2020). In this regard, legal

restrictions on the use of natural resources aimed at

preserving the unique ecosystem and sustainable

development of the territory, must be adjusted to take

into account the interests of the local population. The

current economic activity does not contribute to

improving the standard of living in the BNT regions

and restrictions only increase the economic risks of

the regional development.

Development of the same institutions gives

different results depending on their socio-cultural

background (Auzan, 2017), so the effectiveness of the

development plans implementation increases with a

competent definition of values, and the likelihood of

contradictions and risks is significantly reducing. In

strategic planning it is necessary to take into account

not only economic indicators, but also historical

features of the region, its socio-cultural traditions and

value orientations of society.

The preservation of Lake Baikal for present and

future generations is a strategic goal and the basis for

sustainable development of the Baikal region. The

history of economic activity shows that it is

impossible to solve the problems of strategic

development exclusively by economic approaches.

The sacred image of Lake Baikal, intrinsic for the

culture of the local population, has always formed a

careful attitude to nature and contributed to the

consolidation of strong environmental restrictions in

the practice of nature use management. However, the

balance of restrictive measures and incentives for

economic development was gradually replaced by a

ban on many forms of economic activity, which

became more acute at the turn of the XX and XXI

centuries.

Intensive anthropogenic impact on the Lake

Baikal started relatively recently, at the beginning of

the twentieth century. Prior to this, the impact of

economic activity was limited by fishing, the use of

wood as fuel and building materials, and an available

land plowing. The impact on the ecosystems of the

lake significantly increased in the second half of the

twentieth century, when the Irkutsk hydroelectric

power station and the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill

(BPPM) were built. The construction of the Baikal-

Amur Mainline and the active development of

mineral deposits have led to an unprecedented

increase of the load on the lake and coastal

landscapes. The completion of the Baikal Harbor

project in the beginning of XXI century could

improve the situation (Kirillov et al., 2020).

During the expeditions in the summer season of

2018-2019, sociological surveys were conducted in a

number of localities in the Irkutsk region (Irkutsk,

Angarsk, Baikalsk and Slyudyanka). The total

number of respondents was 62. The main task of

surveys was to identify opinions about the importance

of the ecosystems of Lake Baikal and their natural

resource potential for the local population and

tourists. Most of the respondents (89%) believe that

Lake Baikal can be called the basis of life of the local

population. At the same time, the resource interest of

Lake Baikal and the surrounding area are primarily

represented in terms of recreation, not commercial or

economic activities: most respondents use Lake

Baikal for recreation, while only 10% of respondents

use natural objects for work and additional earnings.

Almost all respondents noted the problems of waste

disposal and chemical contamination of the lake due

to untreated wastewater discharges among the main

environmental problems. Then the problems of

deforestation and forest fires were mentioned,

trampling of natural landscapes as a result of

recreation, etc. About 3∕4 of respondents believe that

these problems are caused equally by human and

legislative and administrative factors. The conclusion

on the necessity to protect Lake Baikal and the

surrounding area is based on opinion of 81% of

respondents which believe that the protection regime

should be strengthened, and 78% are ready to

participate in measures to strengthen the protection,

including financially, for example to transfer part of

their funds to support environmental activities. As a

result of the preliminary assessment, the cost of

existence amounted to 682.5 million rubles per year

(Zengina et al., 2020).

The conducted research shows that the strategy

for the sustainable development of the BNT regions

should be based on all important aspects of the life of

the local population: economic, environmental,

ethno-cultural, geopolitical, etc. The following

sequence in the implementation of “green” principles

in the strategies can be suggested: 1) identification of

alternative solutions to environmental problems; 2)

formation of institutional prerequisites for the

development of low-waste and resource-saving

technologies; 3) fixing the priority of direct

Sustainable Development of the Baikal Natural Territory: Opportunities and Risks

423

environmental measures, taking into account the

socio-cultural specifics of the region. To implement

these and other measures, in our opinion, a new socio-

ecological and economic policy is needed at the

municipal and regional levels of government. Such a

policy can be based on a Strategy for sustainable

sevelopment of the BNT, similar to the “Strategy-

2035” for the regions of the Russian Arctic.

Considering the global, national and regional

significance of the Baikal region, the main ideas of

the strategy can be based on the same principles.

Among them - the introduction of a special

economic regime that promotes the transition to a

“cycling” economy and the creation of new and

modernization of existing industrial productions, the

development of high-tech industries, etc.; providing

investors with state support when they make capital

investments in transport, energy and engineering

infrastructure necessary for the implementation of

new investment projects; development and

implementation of a program of state support for the

traditional economic activities of small-numbered

peoples, provision of state support to projects for the

creation and modernization of fish processing

complexes, fish-breeding and greenhouse enterprises,

livestock complexes, and many others.

5 CONCLUSIONS

Strategies for the long-term socio-economic

development of the Irkutsk Region, Zabaikalsky Krai

and the Republic of Buryatia determine priorities,

taking into account the achievement of social,

economic and environmental goals. However, the

economic goals often considering as basic, providing

a material basis for achieving related goals. The case

of the Baikal region shows that taking into account

socio-cultural and environmental factors of

development can be considered as a more effective

option.

Sustainable development has been defined in a

variety of ways, but in practice it has three

dimensions. These are the economic, environmental

and social dimensions (Jovovic et al, 2017).

Numerous restrictions aimed just to reduce impact of

economic activities on ecosystems, that do not meet

the interests of the local population, did not bring the

desired result. Modern development strategies should

be based on the goals of preserving ecosystems for

the benefit of the population. Environmental well-

being progressively became an important factor of the

quality of life, the ecological culture of the population

increases. Implementation of two priorities (ecology

and culture) into strategic development documents

forms at all levels from global to regional and local

communities is the basis for the achievement of the

Sustainable Development Goals.

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