Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic
Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure
Innovation Design
Lana I. Gurfel
, Victoria Yu. Pavlovskaya
Kuban State Technological University, Moskovskaya Street, 2, Krasnodar, Russia
Kuban State University, Stavropolskaya street, 149, Krasnodar, Russia
Keywords: Economy, Region, Forecasting, Infrastructure, Social and Economic Development.
Abstract: In the context of growing social and economic differences, the issues of developing adequate and well-
grounded management decisions in the regions regarding infrastructure transformations are of particular
importance. Taking this into account, the importance of forecasting the parameters of social and economic
development increases. In this paper, the authors substantiate the forecast of selected social and economic
indicators from the perspective of promising infrastructure innovations. It is shown that by now a number of
accumulated problems in the field of regional infrastructure provision have accumulated, it is possible to solve
them only through complex management decisions. The obtained forecast estimates of individual parameters
of the social and economic sphere of the model region will contribute to the development of a more adequate
social and economic policy of infrastructure innovations. The empirical forecast estimates obtained in the
work can be useful to regional management authorities and research teams, as well as individual researchers
when conducting similar research.
The current stage of the spatial and territorial
development of the Russian Federation in the context
of setting “the tasks of breakthrough development of
the social, economic and scientific and technological
nature” is characterized by a significant increase in
attention to strategic transformations to ensure the
achievement of specific indicators of the social and
economic dynamics of individual territories and the
entire Russian Federation. We emphasize that out of
the 9 “national goals of the Russian Federation
development for the period up to 2024” 6 belong to
social and economic goals, associated with an
increase in income and quality of life, as well as the
demographic situation improvement. The process of
renewal and development of social infrastructure, as
a central and necessary factor in improving the
quality of life of the rural and urban population, plays
an essential role in achieving the objectives.
Actual regional aspects of the quality of life of the
population growth of the territories are presented in
the works of Afonasova, M.A. (Afonasova, M.A.,
2018), Balobanov, A.E. and Golubev, S.V.
(Balobanov, A.E., Golubev, S.V., 2012), Klimenko,
O.I. and Botalova, M.E. (Klimenko, O.I., Botalova,
M.E., 2019), Vavilina, N.D. (Vavilina, 2013),
Galitskaya, V.A. (Galitskaya V.A., 2018), Degil, O.V.
(Degil, O.V., 2012), Heffteran, M.H. (Hefferan M.
Fern A., 2018).
According to Afonosova, M.A. (Afonosova,
M.A., 2018), who considered the prospects for the
quality of life growth in rural areas of certain regions,
at present, the strategic direction of the balanced
spatial and territorial development of peripheral
territories is the growth of infrastructure provision of
the population in terms of education and health
services, which, according to the author will
contribute to an increase in the quality of human
capital and rational use of resource and economic
opportunities. Agreeing with this, in fact, axiomatic
statement, we note that one of the problems of the
Gurfel, L. and Pavlovskaya, V.
Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure Innovation Design.
DOI: 10.5220/0010589502860291
In Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 286-291
ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7
2021 by SCITEPRESS Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved
modern regional economy is the assessment of the
national economic efficiency of infrastructure
investments, the investment needs of which sharply
exceed regional and municipal capacities, but do not
have a short-term return.
Balobanov, A.E. and Golubev, S.V. (Balobanov,
A.E., Golubev, S.V., 2012) made an original attempt
to consider the category of quality of life in the
context of one of the essential resources of municipal
development, trying to substantiate the existence and
significance of the relationship between the quality of
life and human potential in specific municipal
associations - cities.
At the same time, the "quality of life" category
and attempts to adapt it in the regional economy
terminology as an independent research and
methodological pole is today at the stage of scientific
research, weakly connected with real subjects,
processes and specific national economic
significance for the economy of locations and regions,
and also cannot be considered independently, without
infrastructure equipment of the territories (Wetwitoo
J.J., Kato H., 2017), (Oomura I., Yamashita N.,
Tanoue H., Jorinbou I., 2017), (Alberio M., Sousa J.,
2020), (Kozma, D.E., 2019), (Marques T.S., Saraiva
M., Santinha G., Guerra M., 2018), (Matz Dahlberg I.
B., 2020), (Busquet G., 2011), (Glass M.R., Addie J.-
P. D., Nelles J., 2019).
V. S. Antonyuk as a team member of authors with
I. V. Danilova, S.A. Mitelman and Bulikeeva, A. Zh.
(Antonyuk, V.S., Danilova, I.V., Mitelman, S.A.,
Bulikeeva, A.Zh., 2015) proposes that the regional
social infrastructure is a functional system of
providing social services to the population of the
territory, participating in the formation of the regional
indicator of the quality of life. Botalova, M.E.
(Klimenko, O.I., Botalova, M.E., 2019) tried to
consider and classify the factors and conditions that
determine the dynamics of modern infrastructural
capabilities of a regional nature, associating the level
of infrastructure development with the level of social
and economic development of the region.
Bykovskaya, I.V., (Bykovskaya, I.V., 2012) notes
one of the aspects of the regional social infrastructure
in connection with the growth of intraregional
migration of categories of highly qualified workers
and the importance of the factor of their choice of
target location depending on the level of social
infrastructure provision.
Thus, an important objective of the study is the
theoretical and analytical substantiation of the
relationship between the development of the social
infrastructure of the region and the quality of life, the
level of social and economic development.
At the initial stage, a hypothesis was put forward,
which is in the assumption of the impossibility of
systemic and long-term social and economic
development of a specific territory (location,
municipality, region, macro region) without
predicting the scale of social, social and economic
interactions as the basis of regional economic
As part of the verification of this assumption,
Krasnodar Krai as a research platform was
The theoretical basis of the study was formed on
the basis of selection, study, critical reflection,
analysis and assessment of trends in the social and
economic development of the model region,
presented in strategic documents of territorial
planning. To carry out predictive calculations and
analytical work, the materials of the Forecast of the
development of the long-term social and economic
development of the Russian Federation for the period
up to 2030, the Spatial Development Strategy of the
Russian Federation, 2019 Presidential Address to the
Federal Assembly were used, as well as an empirical
block of data reflecting the attractiveness of territories
of Krasnodar Krai for irrevocable migration of the
population with the aim of its. The research
instruments are presented by methods of forecasting
and economic interpretation of the obtained empirical
estimates, as well as by various methods of their
graphical visualization.
3.1 Analysis of Social and Economic
Prerequisites for the Development
of Social Infrastructure
In 2015-2019, the Krasnodar Krai was characterized
by a steady, slowly growing resident population and
its stable structure: during the period under review,
the total population of the territory increased by 3.6%
(including 2019, compared with the previous period,
by 0.8%), amounting to more than 5.648 million
people as of January 1, 2019.
There was a slight trend towards urbanization in
the region: for the period 2015-2019 the share of the
urban population of the territory increased to 55.18%
or by 1.12% in 2019 compared to 2015, amounting to
more than 3.116 million people, the share of the rural
Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure
Innovation Design
population decreased to 44.82%, amounting more
than 2.531 million people as of January 1, 2019.
The labor force available for use in the regional
economic system of the Krasnodar Krai, at the end of
2018, amounted to 3.369 million people or 60.1% of
the total resident population of the territory, the
specific estimate of the GRP normalized for this
factor in 2018 was 711 thousand rubles per person in
current prices and 602 thousand rubles per person in
2015 prices.
In 2018, more than 2.603 million people were
employed in legal economic activity on the territory
of the region (46.5% of the total resident population
and 77.3% of the regional labor force), which ensured
the production of GRP per employee at the level of
920 thousand rubles in 2018 (779 thousand rubles in
as o 2015)
A very interesting empirical fact that characterizes
the degree of openness of the social and economic
system of Krasnodar Krai and the scale of its
integration into the national economic space is the
proximity of the region GRP and the monetary
income of the population of the territory: in 2018,
cash incomes amounted to more than 2.28 trillion
rubles or 95.1% of GRP (having decreased over 4
years by more than 11.5% in relative terms, including
5.2% over the last year).
According to regional statistics, against the
background of a real decline in the population cash
income, Krasnodar Krai in 2015-2018 characterized
by an increase in the effectiveness of the
implementation of the social function of state
administration of the territory in relation to the
population with incomes below the subsistence level:
for 2015-2018, the number of those decreased to the
level of 10.9% of the total resident population of the
territory, the positive change was 0.8% with stable
dynamics for the period under review. At the same
time, every tenth inhabitant of the region experienced
an acute shortage of cash income and was balancing
on the brink of physical survival, which was an urgent
and significant regional trend and a problem of
promising territorial social and economic
3.2 Problems of the Regional Social
It should be emphasized that the current level of
social and economic development of Krasnodar Krai
is actually characterized by the following significant
the transfer of the task of providing local social
infrastructure to the municipal level with the
burden of residential real estate developers in
terms of the obligation to provide infrastructure
for the locations being developed;
focusing exclusively on specific quantitative
assessments of local infrastructural provision,
which regional executive authorities are unable
to exert real influence on;
disintegration of the functions of managing the
processes of creation and operation of
local/municipal social infrastructure facilities
and the lack of one-man management at the
municipal/regional levels;
implementation of the main form of support for
local processes of infrastructural
modernization in the form of targeted regional
financing against the background of a constant
budget deficit (as of October 1, 2019, the state
debt of the region exceeded 110.6 billion
rubles, the regional budget deficit in 2019 is
projected at level 3.6-4 billion rubles);
the lack of opportunities to influence the
quality of provided social and infrastructure
the lack of a regional system for monitoring the
satisfaction of the population of the region and
its constituent locations with the level of
infrastructure provision and the quality of
services provided, which can act as factors of
the stability of the regional settlement system,
or, conversely, the cause of irrevocable
3.3 Review of Forecasts for the
Development of Regional Social
In accordance with the social and economic
component of the regional Development Strategy for
the long term in Krasnodar Krai in 2019-2024 the
following significant social trends were recorded and
predicted (Strategy, 2018):
the steady growth of the region population with
low reproductive activity and the presence of
natural decline, due to growing migration
the lack of infrastructure capabilities of
preschool and school blocks of the regional
educational system;
the growth of intraregional differences in the
provision, accessibility and quality of health
care services;
lack of opportunities to attract investment
financing in the field of physical culture and
mass sports, as well as culture due to the lack
ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure
of commercial attractiveness of such areas of
a consistently high level of social protection
and services for vulnerable groups of the
population against the background of
operational problems in the functioning and
development of the corresponding
infrastructure of federal subordination.
Table 1: Forecast of the dynamics of the availability and level of use of the components of the municipal social infrastructure
of the city of Krasnodar for the period up to 2027 (in accordance with “Program for the Comprehensive Development of
Social Infrastructure of the Ministry of Defense of Krasnodar for 2017-2027”).
Target indicator Measuring unit 2019 2020 2021 2022/
Additional places in organizations o
preschool education of municipal
places 3,900 1,0200 1,7300 171,900
Dynamics of the number of the
contingent of general education
138.00 140.20 143.50 156.80
Additional places in general
education organizations
places 56,000 22,000 26,500 1,053,250
Proportion of schools meeting the
classroom standar
% 86.80 89.30 95.20 1,000
Proportion of schools with one-shift
% 250 420 510 1,000
Dynamics of the number of
stationary healthcare facilities for
the cit
unit 1,220 1,240 1,260 1,390
The growth of the involvement of
urban resident population in
systematic sports and physical
% 46.40 47.10 48.80 49.80
Dynamics of the number of citizens
involved in systematic sports and
sical education
407.30 408.30 409.30 409.60
Forecast of regular users of
municipal library resources
148.00 154.00 162.10 199.80
Dynamics of members of cultural
associations and clubs
people 57,530 69,830 78,030 78,030
The growth of the contingent of
students in the field of art and
culture in the format of additional
people 123,100 125,200 125,200 141,200
At the same time, it is planned to achieve specific
results in terms of infrastructural support of municipal
social and economic processes:
increasing the level of accessibility of
municipal organizations of preschool education
to 100% and eliminating queues for
full transition to a one-shift mode of
functioning of municipal comprehensive
an increase in the number and capacity of
municipal health care organizations in
locations where intensive new construction is
increasing the infrastructural capabilities of the
population of the municipality in terms of
access to municipal library funds and cultural
and leisure opportunities.
The central result consists in the formulation of the
author's position on the research topic, which consists
Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure
Innovation Design
in emphasizing the impossibility of systemic and
long-term social and economic development of a
specific territory (location, municipality, region,
macro region) without changing the existing
scientific and managerial approaches to
understanding the fundamental subjectivity of the
resident population as the main beneficiary of the
regional economy and solving the national economic
problem of a regional scale to increase the quality and
scale of social, social and economic interactions as
the basis for progressive and productive local and
regional economic activity.
Strengthening such forms of activity, in turn,
requires the implementation of local and regional
scenarios of expanded reproduction and social and
economic development, which are impossible outside
the infrastructural form of organizing the
corresponding processes. The needs of the population
of the territory for infrastructural services are specific
reasons and should act as the basis for choosing
directions for the development of regional social
infrastructure as a critically important component of
the regional economy, which determines the rates and
proportions of regional production and reproduction
The applied implementation of the priorities of
sustainable, balanced and systemic regional social
and economic development currently requires the
advanced development of the regional and the
municipal and local social infrastructure that form it,
while the growth of the regional competitiveness of
Krasnodar Krai directly depends on the improvement
of the characteristics of the reserve group of regional
labor potential, including in terms of developing and
improving the characteristics of regional human
capital - permanent residents of the territory with
entrepreneurial and innovative competencies. Such
dynamics is possible only with full-fledged social and
infrastructural support of local, municipal and
regional scale and requires appropriate targeted
efforts, the implementation of which will ensure the
mobilization and productive use of internal social and
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Forecasting Selected Parameters of Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Region for the Purposes of Infrastructure
Innovation Design