Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development
Vera A. Vasyaycheva
Department of Human Resource Management, Samara National Research University, 34, Moskovskoye shosse, Samara,
Keywords: Modeling, Innovative Development, Efficiency, Sustainable Economic Development.
Abstract: The country's economy sustainable development is accompanied by the formation of favorable conditions for
enhancing the economic structures innovative activity. The presence of variable factors that determine their
qualitative and effective transformation into an innovative path of development determines the need to
identify key parameters that have the maximum impact on the effectiveness of solving the problems of
economic modernization and increasing the country's rating at the world level. Modeling, analysis and
forecasting of the dynamics of these parameters will make it possible to objectively substantiate the basic
factors signs that affect the achievement of strategic goals and ensure the economic system stability.
Achievement of a high level of country
competitiveness at the global level, first of all, is due
to the ability of economic systems to quickly adapt to
constantly changing economic conditions
(Gerasimov, Vasyaycheva and Gerasimov, 2018).
The key aspect in solving this issue is to ensure high
sustainability of economic development through the
selection of adequate methods and tools for
conducting economic policy. It should be noted that
significant results can be obtained not only from
creating a favorable climate for the implementation of
state modernization programs, but also by
strengthening the positions of advanced industries,
increasing their added value, investment
attractiveness and export potential.
In this case, the economic policy and the policy of
managing production structures should be
implemented systematically with a clear indication of
strategic guidelines and measures to eliminate
problems and restrictions that restrain the country's
economic growth. Blind copying of the best world
practices may not lead to the desired results and
contribute to a failure in achieving the intended goals
and consequently the economy degradation as a
Today, the formation of a new mechanism for
innovative economic development requires a detailed
study of the factors affecting key financial indicators
and giving a powerful impetus for structural renewal
and increased business activity of high-tech industries
(Berdnikov and Resnyanskiy, 2020; Malysheva,
Shinkevich, etc., 2016). The identification of the most
significant factors is a fundamental point in the aspect
of identifying the directions of impact on the
effectiveness of the innovative transformation of
economic entities in the new economy and
substantiating the innovative vector of change. The
importance of this approach is emphasized in the
works of Russian scientists (Chirkunova, Anisimova
and Tukavkin, 2021; Kiselev, Korobkov, etc., 2018),
who identify trends and patterns of sustainable
evolution of Russian economic structures
(stimulating and hindering the economy
development) and argue the importance of
developing the methods for determining conditions
for advanced development and growth of the
country's competitiveness in the world ranking.
The well-founded construction of this mechanism
and the prediction of the results of its operation allows
us to identify real opportunities for implementing
structural changes in the management system at the
macro-, meso - and micro-levels. In this paper
presents the results of economic and mathematical
Vasyaycheva, V.
Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development Parameters.
DOI: 10.5220/0010587301380142
In Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure (ISSDRI 2021), pages 138-142
ISBN: 978-989-758-519-7
2021 by SCITEPRESS Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved
modeling of the Russian economy innovative
development which form the basis for the economic
policy effective implementation, adequate use of
borrowed management methods and tools for
technological renewal of production structures
(Bogatyrev, Bulavko, etc., 2018), economic
justification of the need to introduce international
standards into the domestic management practice and
the formation of "cross-cutting" competencies from
the leaders of the strategic and tactical management
levels (Forrester, Ustinova, etc., 2016).
The methodological basis of this study is based on
general scientific approaches to the analysis of the
innovative economic development effectiveness
system analysis, description, dialectical method,
formalization method, correlation and regression
analysis, principal component analysis, statistical
methods of information collection and processing. In
addition the paper uses special methods of cognition:
econometric modeling, forecasting methods,
component, and factor analysis.
The information base of the research includes
statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service
of the Russian Federation, reports of the Ministry of
Economic Development of the Russian Federation,
scientific articles, monographs, abstracts and
dissertations, and other scientific works of modern
scientists and economists.
Modeling the parameters of innovative economic
development was based on indicators of economic
activity presented on the official website of the
Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service:
- the number of personnel engaged in
research and development (people);
- the gross value added by sectors of the
economy (million rubles);
- the volume of innovative goods, works,
services by the constituent entities of the Russian
Federation (million rubles);
- innovative goods, works, services, newly
introduced or subjected to significant technological
changes during the last three years in the Russian
Federation (million rubles);
- internal expenditures on research and
development in the constituent entities of the Russian
Federation (million rubles);
- the share of innovative goods, works,
services in the total volume of goods shipped, works
performed, services (percentage);
- funding of science from the federal budget
(million rubles);
- the cost of enterprises innovative activities
(million rubles);
- costs of production and sale of goods
(works, services) of enterprises (legal entities) in the
Russian Federation (million rubles);
- annual turnover of enterprises (excluding
small businesses, etc.) (million rubles);
- gross domestic product (million rubles).
These indicators formed the basis for calculating
the parameters of the country's economic
development, determining the basic components of its
effectiveness and visualizing the priority aspects that
are of dominant importance in the formation of the
constitutive mechanism for the development of the
Russian economy.
To eliminate the multicollinearity of the listed
indicators, integral indicators were calculated,
reflecting the impact on the resulting indicator Y
(indicator of the effectiveness of innovative
development of the economy):
innovative (indicator of the research and
development effectiveness - X
personnel (indicator of personnel innovative
activity - X
financial (indicator of the costs for production
and innovative activities ratio - X
production and technological (indicator of
production efficiency - X
At the initial stage of constructing an economy
innovative development dynamic model the influence
of each of the factors on the resulting indicator was
studied using the correlation-regression analysis
method. As a result, we obtained models (Table 1)
that can be used to predict the effectiveness of the
economy innovative development for each of the four
factors. Indicators R
and p prove models' reliability
and indicate the significance of the results obtained
from them.
Based on the application of the principal
components method it was found that the factors X
and X
have the greatest impact on Y. The conclusions
significance was confirmed by checking the adequacy
of the constructed models using the Kaiser-Meyer-
Olkin method and the Barlett test.
Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development Parameters
Table 1: Dynamic models of innovative economic
development sub-vector efficiency.
Models R
Y = 6,87 + 1,06X
0,99 0,000001
Y = 61,12 + 0,80X
0,94 0,00009
Y = 262,88 - 78,82X
0,88 0,0006
Y = 79,23 + 5,48X
0,71 0,008
A graphical model of the country's economy
innovative development factors as a percentage of the
contribution to the resulting indicator is shown in
Figure 1.
Figure 1: Resources that ensure the economy innovative
development efficiency.
An increase in the share of contributions from the
financial and innovation component to the total
variance will ensure the multiplier effect of the
Russian economy development. This conclusion can
be laid in the basis for the economic policy
development, strengthening the innovative potential
and stimulating the domestic industrial structures
innovative activity growth (7E OLEFMIZ E).
Modeling the dependence of Y on factors X
will allow assessing not only the final results that
can be obtained taking into account the current
strength of their impact but also identifying their
marginal and average values at which it will be
possible to ensure high competitiveness of the
domestic economy.
The results of the correlation and regression
analysis are presented in Table 2.
Summarizing the study, we conclude that the
cumulative effect of innovation and financial factors
on the efficiency of innovative development of the
economy can be estimated by the model:
Y = 12,61 + 1,04X
High values of the coefficient of determination (R
= 0.99) and Fisher's test (F(2.5) = 22.95) and value of
significance level (p-value < 0,000001) indicate the
adequacy of the calculations and the significance of
the results obtained. The same conclusions are also
confirmed by the graph of the initial values of the
resulting indicator and obtained by the model (Fig. 2).
Table 2: Regression Analysis Results.
--- 0,98 -0,04
of b*
--- 0,02 0,02
12,61 1,04 -0,06
of b
2,74 0,02 0,02
4,59 59,28 -2,70
0,006 0,0000001 0,04
= 0,99, R
This model makes it possible to assess the degree
and nature of the impact of each of the factors on Y.
Thus, the value of the coefficient at X
indicates a strong influence of the effectiveness of
research and development on the effectiveness of
economy innovative development. The value of the
coefficient at X
(-0.06) indicates the inverse
dependence of Y on this indicator and shows that the
degree of its influence is 17.3 times lower than the
influence of X
. This fact indicates the irrational funds
distribution and the low efficiency of their investment
in the production structures development.
Figure 2: Dynamics of the economy innovative
development efficiency indicator.
The current situation requires prompt state
intervention and the implementation of corrective
measures by optimizing management methods and
tools that can increase the responsibility of the
enterprises management for the negative results of
ISSDRI 2021 - International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure
their activities. A retrospective analysis of this
problem allows us to identify the following areas for
overcoming existing pathologies:
the organizational and economic systems
managerial structure improvement;
increasing the high-tech industries top
management responsibility in the aspect of
innovative development strategic tasks effective
production infrastructure reforming in the
direction of creating adequate conditions for
sustainable economic growth;
promotion of co-competitive development of
basic production industries that provide cross-
industry interaction and synergistic effect;
reduce costs by increasing the level of
personnel competence at all levels of the production
hierarchy and the formation of "
" KPI.
development of high-tech industries on the
ne hand is a platform for attracting investment and
creating a favorable investment climate, and on the
other hand, a motivating factor for creating an
innovative economy with a high level of
Thus, the results of modeling the economy innovative
development parameters indicate the dominant
influence of the personnel and production-
technological component of the economic
development of the country and the insufficient
influence of the factors of the innovation and
financial group on its stability. Therefore, the priority
aspect in the formation of the constitutive mechanism
of innovative development of the economy should be
the dispersion approach to the construction of a
conceptual framework for economic management
and the improvement of forms of state support for
economic systems.
The issues of ensuring the sustainability of
economic development are covered in the works of
modern researchers and economists at a fairly high
level. However, the impact of the innovation
component is revealed on the basis of subjective
judgments and its significance is not objectively
justified. Moreover, innovative factors of economic
growth at any level are fundamental, which determine
the advanced nature of the development of the
national economy (Chirkunova, Khmeleva, etc.,
2020). Therefore, an assessment and reasoned
forecast of changes in the dynamics of the resulting
indicators is necessary to monitor the achievement of
strategic goals, proactively analyze the constantly
evolving system and develop an adequate economic
policy. This is the only way to ensure the country's
high competitiveness on a global scale.
The analysis results prove the importance of
increasing the innovative potential and the investment
attractiveness of domestic production structures.
Innovative development is impossible without the
support of the state. Within the framework of a
comprehensive policy, effective conditions are
created to support and stimulate innovation and
investment that lead to the formation of a competitive
economy. As priorities in this aspect, it is necessary
to strengthen the effectiveness of already established
state programs and the infrastructure transformations
currently being implemented in the direction of
digitalization of management impact support
(Bezdudnaya, Gundorova, etc., 2020).
It is worth noting that over the past few years, the
share of economic entities engaged in technological
and managerial innovations has decreased, which
negatively affected the overall state of the economy
and its growth rates. Digital transformation and the
introduction of innovations in the field of information
and communication technologies will directly affect
most of the Russian industrial sectors, as the share of
large companies in Russia is 80% against 40% on
average in comparable countries. From this point of
view, Russia has all the opportunities for economic
growth. However, in many economic indicators, it
lags behind the leaders of the world economy. This is
mainly due to the underdevelopment of the economic
system in the field of innovation implementation and
management (Vasyaycheva, Sakhabieva, etc., 2020).
First of all the effectiveness of domestic economy
innovative development depends on the adequacy of
legislative and organizational and managerial reforms
that stimulate the activities of production structures in
this direction. Increasing their innovation activity and
increasing their investment attractiveness is a
complex, multi-component and strategically
important task, especially relevant in modern
economic conditions. The effectiveness of its solution
determines the state and prospects of economic
growth, the status of the state on the world stage and
the stability of the economic situation as a whole.
Thus there is a need of an integrated approach to
economic policy and development strategy of the
domestic industry with a clear argument key goals
and objectives, methods, technologies and tools for
their implementation taking into account the need to
strengthen financial and innovative components of
economic growth and support personnel and
Modeling the Sustainable Innovative Economic Development Parameters
production-technological components in a changing
The study showed that the sustainable development
of the economy should be a priority in the formation
of the innovation policy of economic entities. At the
same time, a clear argumentation of strategic
guidelines is required, based on an objective
justification of the directions of management actions
The economy innovativeness is mainly
determined by the activity of economic structures, the
degree of their motivation to participate in the reform
processes. The results obtained indicate the
innovation activities low efficiency and the
insufficient level of domestic industries innovation
potential in ensuring the country's competitiveness in
the world market. The implementation of
revolutionary changes set in economic policy will
increase the investment attractiveness of economic
systems, revive their innovative activity, increasing
its intensity and providing a multiplier effect.
The paper identifies the priority areas of
economic, scientific and technological development
of the country in modern conditions, ensuring the
expansion of the domestic production structures share
in emerging markets, increasing the competitiveness
of high-tech industries in the world rankings. The
main task of the management system for the
innovative development of the economy is the
rational choice of parameters that allow identifying
"bottlenecks" and hidden reserves for accelerating the
economic growth of domestic production industries.
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