The Estimation of Sustainable Development Trajectories of the Regional Socio-economic System

Karolina Ketova, Daiana Vavilova

Abstract

The article is solved the problem of constructing sustainable development trajectories of the socio-economic system on the example one of the regions of the Russian Federation. The problem is formulated on the basis of a dynamic macro-model of the regional economy, where the development factors are productive capital and effective volume of labor resources. The effective volume of labor resources is a synergy of the quantity of the factor (the number of labor resources) and the quality of the factor (the employee's labor efficiency). The produced at the macro level product is allocated to investments in maintaining and expanding productive capital, labor resources, and consumption in the macroeconomic regional system. The inclusion of the factor of the effective volume of labor resources in the macro model is a distinctive feature of this management problem statement. The solving the problem algorithm is to build trajectories of sustainable economic development: the trajectories of balanced sustainable growth and the optimal trajectory of the socio-economic system, which put this system on the trajectory of balanced sustainable growth. The statistical base of the calculations is the demography data, the volumes of investment in the production and social-educational sphere of the Udmurt Republic. To solve the problem of identifying unknown parameters of the model, the period 2000-2019 is used. The optimal investment rates are calculated to allow the economic system to reach the trajectory of balanced sustainable growth by 2025. The proposed methodology can be used to build trajectories of sustainable development of socio-economic systems, as well as to conduct parametric model calculations to identify factors of sustainable economic growth.

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Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Ketova K. and Vavilova D. (2021). The Estimation of Sustainable Development Trajectories of the Regional Socio-economic System. In Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure - Volume 1: ISSDRI, ISBN 978-989-758-519-7, pages 107-115. DOI: 10.5220/0010586901070115


in Bibtex Style

@conference{issdri21,
author={Karolina Ketova and Daiana Vavilova},
title={The Estimation of Sustainable Development Trajectories of the Regional Socio-economic System},
booktitle={Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure - Volume 1: ISSDRI,},
year={2021},
pages={107-115},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010586901070115},
isbn={978-989-758-519-7},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sustainable Development of Regional Infrastructure - Volume 1: ISSDRI,
TI - The Estimation of Sustainable Development Trajectories of the Regional Socio-economic System
SN - 978-989-758-519-7
AU - Ketova K.
AU - Vavilova D.
PY - 2021
SP - 107
EP - 115
DO - 10.5220/0010586901070115