Hybrid Approach based on SARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks for Knowledge Discovery Applied to Crime Rates Prediction

Felipe Soares, Tiago Silveira, Henrique Freitas

Abstract

The fight against crime in Brazilian cities is an extremely important issue and has become a priority agenda in public, statutory or municipal discussions. Even so, reducing cases of violence is a complex task in large Brazilian cities, such as Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, as these large cities have vast criminal points. Therefore, this paper presents the steps followed in the process of knowledge discovery applied to prediction of crime rate numbers in different regions of São Paulo city in order to better understand it and distribute the security forces more efficiently. Then, a hybrid model composed of an Artificial Neural Network and the SARIMA mathematical model was applied to databases related to different areas of the city. The average results showed assertiveness rates of 83.12% and 76.78% and root mean square deviation of 1.75 and 2.16 for two different tests.

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Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Soares F., Silveira T. and Freitas H. (2020). Hybrid Approach based on SARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks for Knowledge Discovery Applied to Crime Rates Prediction.In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 1: ICEIS, ISBN 978-989-758-423-7, pages 407-415. DOI: 10.5220/0009412704070415


in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceis20,
author={Felipe Soares and Tiago Silveira and Henrique Freitas},
title={Hybrid Approach based on SARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks for Knowledge Discovery Applied to Crime Rates Prediction},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 1: ICEIS,},
year={2020},
pages={407-415},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0009412704070415},
isbn={978-989-758-423-7},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 1: ICEIS,
TI - Hybrid Approach based on SARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks for Knowledge Discovery Applied to Crime Rates Prediction
SN - 978-989-758-423-7
AU - Soares F.
AU - Silveira T.
AU - Freitas H.
PY - 2020
SP - 407
EP - 415
DO - 10.5220/0009412704070415