AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
SOCIAL CONSUMPTION DEMAND FACTORS AND THE
CULTURAL INDUSTRY IN CHINA
Li Cui, Haoxiong Yang and Hao Zhang
School of Business, Beijing Technology and Business University, 33 Fucheng Road, Beijing, P.R. China
Keywords: Industry structure, Cultural industry, Social consumption demand, Influence relationship, Regression
analysis.
Abstract: The relationship between social consumption demand factors and the development of Chinese culture
industry is analyzed based on the theory of industrial structure. The result indicates that average disposable
income of urban residents and Engel coefficient of rural households are related to culture industry very
significantly and that the contribution of culture industry to GDP needs to be improved. Three
countermeasures are proposed to promote the development of culture industry from two angles, including
improving average disposable income of urban residents to increase their consumption ability, reducing
Engel coefficient of rural households to improve the quality of life and promoting the construction of public
cultural service system.
1 INTRODUCTION
International competition enters into culture industry
and culture domain under the background of
economic globalization. Therefore, the strength of
culture industry becomes an indicator of national
culture competitiveness. The statistical data of
Chinese culture and relevant industries
accomplished by China National Bureau of Statistics
shows that Chinese culture industry increases
powerfully and the increasing speed came to be
higher than that of gross domestic production for the
first time in 2006. It was also faster than the tertiary
industry in the corresponding period. China is a
developing country whose culture industry started
later and the level of industrialization, scale and
intensification is lower than developed countries.
Chinese culture industry is in the process of growth
and the value added increased from 394.1 billons
RMB in 2004 to 760 billons RMB in 2008. But the
proportion accounting for GDP only increased with
a small rate from 2.15 percent to 2.53 percent
As the income of urban and rural Chinese
residents is being enhanced remarkably and the
quality of life improves further, new concepts of
culture consumption gradually grows up and the
consumption demand space becomes larger and
larger. On the other hand, the State Council made
Culture Industry Promotion Planning in July 2009
which proposed explicitly the guiding ideology,
fundamental principles and planning goals. The
planning goals included that culture industry scale
must constantly enlarge and the industry function
and role of motivating economic and social
development be played better. A depth study on the
influence of social consumption demand factors on
the development of Chinese culture industry can
help provide important basis for making national
culture industry policies.
We conducted empirical analysis on culture
industry and the relevant influential factors with
Eviews, a statistical software. The results show that
average disposable income of urban residents and
the Engel coefficient of rural households influence
Chinese culture industry most notably and that the
contribution of Chinese culture industry to GDP
needs to be enhanced. According to the empirical
analysis results, we put forward some
countermeasures and proposals to facilitate the
development of culture industry.
Be advised that papers in a technically unsuitable
form will be returned for retyping. After returned the
manuscript must be appropriately modified.
606
Cui L., Yang H. and Zhang H..
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOCIAL CONSUMPTION DEMAND FACTORS AND THE CULTURAL INDUSTRY IN
CHINA.
DOI: 10.5220/0003597406060610
In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems (PMSS-2011), pages 606-610
ISBN: 978-989-8425-56-0
Copyright
c
2011 SCITEPRESS (Science and Technology Publications, Lda.)
2 CULTURE INDUSTRY AND
SOCIAL CONSUMPTION
DEMAND FACTORS
Consumption demand plays a role of guiding and
pulling tremendously to the development of society
and economy. Economy development and income
growth always push the demand of culture go up at
some stages in the process of industrialization and
urbanization. China is in the intermediate period of
industrialization and urbanization where the speed of
economy development and income growth is fast
and the demand of culture is being awakened. But
the system of resource allocation by market has not
been built. Therefore, the demand of spirit and
culture products lacks of effective interaction and
links with the suppliers. On the one hand the huge
potential demand cannot be realized. On the other
hand a large quantity of products supply is invalid
and more enormous culture resources cannot be
industrialized.
Consumption demand has become the source of
industry formation and development since demand
determines production in the modern economy.
According to the Engels law and Maslows
hierarchy of needs theory, when the economy
develops to certain level income improvement and
the change of income structure will make demand
structure go upstream and the proportion of spirit
and culture consumption continuously rise at a faster
speed than that of material consumption demand. As
the culture consumption ability increases, the scale
of culture consumption will be constantly expanded
so as to pull the growth of culture industry. The
culture consumption demand of a country is the
basis of the development of its culture industry and
the motive power of enhancing competitive
advantage of culture industry. So grasping the
culture consumption demand is capturing the master
key of developing culture industry. The key point of
expanding domestic demand is exploiting new
hotspots with the rapid development of national
economy and the expansion of civil culture
consumption demand space while culture
consumption is a new pattern of pulling economy
development through consumption. International
experience also testifies that culture consumption
expenditures are positively relevant with GDP.
According to the industrial structure theory of
Chenery, an American economist, some kind of
linear correlation exists among certain GDP
development level, certain Engel coefficient and
certain culture consumption expenditures. When the
average GDP is between 2000 dollars to 4000
dollars, the resident culture consumption demand
will emerge evidently and the culture consumption
will reach 4 to 5 percent of GDP. Chinese average
GDP was larger than 2500 dollars while the culture
consumption accounted only 2.5 percent for GDP.
This indicator is 5.47 percent in the same rank
countries. That is to say, the culture consumption
level of Chinese residents is only half of the level of
other countries in the same class.
At the present stage in China, the condition of
insufficient proportion and lower amount of culture
consumption stands out. Therefore, Chinese culture
consumption has a great improvement space
compared with western developed countries. Inferior
culture consumption demand is the direct factor that
restricts the development of the culture industry in
China.
3 THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
3.1 Indicator Selection
The contribution of culture industry to a countrys
economy can be measured by the proportion of the
added value of culture industry accounting for GDP
on the basis of existing research. So we selected the
added value of culture industry as the dependent
variable i.e. explained variable of the linear
regression equation. According to Chenerys
theory of industrial structure, we selected GDP,
average income level and Engel coefficient as
independent variables i.e. explanatory variables.
It is necessary to point out that average income
level and Engel coefficient reflect social
consumption ability from amount and structure
respectively although they are strongly correlative.
These two indicators are complementary since
average income level emphasizes on the resident
consumption ability as the foundation and guarantee
of consumption ability while Engel coefficient
emphasizes on the living behavior.
In order to study the influence of urban and rural
culture consumption demand further, the average
income level is split into average disposable income
of urban residents and average net income of rural
residents and Engel coefficient is split into Engel
coefficient of urban households and Engel
coefficient of rural households to make pointed
references for resolving the problems of the
development of urban and rural culture industry.
In conclusion, we selected the added value of
culture industry, GDP, average disposable income of
urban residents, average net income of rural
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOCIAL CONSUMPTION DEMAND FACTORS
AND THE CULTURAL INDUSTRY IN CHINA
607
residents, Engel coefficient of urban households and
Engel coefficient of rural households as the indictors
of linear regression model. The data of the six
indicators are from the year of 1998 to 2009. The
symbols and meanings of the dependent variable and
independent variables in the model are demonstrated
in Table 1.
In the empirical analysis, we should not only find
out the factors which influence the economic
contribution of Chinese culture industry but also
determine the significance of each factor and
whether auto correlativity exists among these
factors. These goals bring forward high requirements
for the comprehensive function of software. The
strong function of Eviews can just satisfy these
requirements with great practical value.
Table 1: Relevant Variables.
Type of Variables Symbols Variables
Dependent variables Y Added value of culture industry
Independent variables
X
1
GDP
X
2
Average disposable income of urban
residents
X
3
Average net income of rural residents
X
4
Engel coefficient of urban households
X
5
Engel coefficient of rural households
3.2 Related Data
The data used in the regression model is time series
data derived from China Statistical Yearbook (1999-
2010) and the website of China National Bureau of
Statistics. The sample data are shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Related data.
Year
Y (Hundred
Million RMB)
X
1
((Hundred
Million RMB))
X
2
(RMB) X
3
(RMB) X
4
(%)X
5
(%)
1998
1823.9
84402 5425 2162 44.5 53.4
1999
2098
89677 5854 2210 41.9 52.6
2000
2391.2
99215 6280 2253 39.2 49.1
2001
2768.7
109655 6860 2366 38.2 47.7
2002
3090.5
120333 7703 2476 37.7 46.2
2003
3415.1
135823 8472 2622 37.1 45.6
2004
3940.8
159878 9422 2936 37.7 47.2
2005
4454.8
183217 10439 3255 36.7 45.5
2006
5123
211924 11759 3587 35.8 43.0
2007
6559.9
249530 13786 4140 36.3 43.1
2008 7600 300670 15781 4761 37.9 43.7
2009 8400 340507 17175 5153 36.5 43.0
Data source: China Statistical Yearbook, 1999-2010.
3.3 Regression Analysis
It is supposed that linear correlativity exists between
the added value of culture industry and GDP,
average disposable income of urban residents,
average net income of rural residents, Engel
coefficient of urban households and Engel
coefficient of rural households. A linear equation is
built as following
Y=C
1
X
1
+C
2
X
2
+C
3
X
3
+C
4
X
4
+C
5
X
5
(1)
The result of a linear regression analysis of the data
in Table 2 is shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Results of linear regression analysis.
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob.
X
1
-0.0315 0.0186 -1.6957 0.1409
X
2
0.6387 0.2238 2.8542 0.029
X
3
0.0741 0.2282 0.3248 0.7563
X
4
-42.8431 19.0012 -2.2348 0.065
X
5
-54.7905 13.8829 -3.9466 0.0076
C 5472.92 599.3474 9.1315 0.0001
R-squared 0.998 F-statistic 631.5
The number of variables is 5 and the sample size
is 12. Adjusted R Square is 0.998 and F-statistic is
631.5. So the degree of fitting reaches up to 0.998.
The regression of forecasting dependent variables
within the sample is very successful.
In the result of Prob. the p value of X1 is 0.1409,
which indicates that the influence of X1to Y is not
significant. The t statistic values of X2 and X3 are
both positive, indicating that these variables are
positively correlated with Y. It means that the added
value of culture industry will increase as the average
income of urban and rural resident increases.
Meanwhile, the t statistic values of X4 and X5 are
both negative, indicating that these variables are
negatively correlated with Y. It means that the added
value of culture industry will increase as the Engel
coefficients decrease.
Then the most significant indicators were
analyzed by linear regression. In the results of Prob.,
the larger the p value, the less significance it shows.
The significance is the largest when the p value is
zero while the significance degree is zero when the p
value is 0.15. From Table 3 it is known that the p
value of
X
3
is 0.7563, which indicates it is
insignificant. The p values of
X
1
and X
4
are 0.1409
and 0.065 respectively, which indicates their
significance degrees are small. Therefore, these
three groups of data can be eliminated. Then we
made regression analysis of
X
2
and X
5
. The output
results are shown in Table 4.
ICEIS 2011 - 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems
608
Table 4: Results of linear regression of X
2
and X
5.
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob.
X
2
0.270 0.020 13.395 0.000
X
5
-82.354 9.780 -8.421 0.000
C 4782.960 613.670 7.794 0.000
R-squared 0.994 F-statistic 754.04
Durbin-
Watson stat
1.781
Prob
(F-statistic)
0.000
The number of variables is 2 and the sample size
is 12. Adjusted R Square is 0.994 and F-statistic is
754.04. The fitting degree of the regression equation
is high, reaching up to 0.994. The regression of
forecasting dependent variables within the sample is
very successful.
From the output results of Prob., the significance
degrees of X2 and X5 reach to the largest level.
These two factors are the determining factors of this
regression equation.
In the end, we tested the correlativity of the most
significant indicators. After building the linear
regression model, we can obtain the figure of
residual distribution. It shows that there is
heteroscedasticity if the distribution dots are not
closely around a horizontal line and their distribution
area becomes broader or narrower or irregular
complex variation appears. Auto correlativity does
not exist from direct viewing.
Firstly, we got the figure of residual distribution
as seen in Figure 1 to verify if heteroscedasticity
exists between X2 and X5. From the figure we can
draw the conclusion that heteroscedasticity exists
between X2 and X5 and auto correlativity does not
exist from direct viewing.
残差图
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Resid
Figure 1: Residual distribution.
Then we used Durbin-Watson statistic to test if
there is auto correlativity between X2 and X5. From
Table 4, the DW statistic is 1.781. For the situation
where k is 2 and n is 12, the lower threshold dL is
0.812 and the upper threshold is 1.579. Since DW is
in the range of dU2, we can judge that there is no
sequence correlativity between X2 and X5.
3.4 Analysis Results
The analysis results of this multiple regression
model are as follows.
(1) After analyzing all the indicators by linear
regression, we knew from the output results of t-
statistic that the added value of culture industry will
increase if the average income of urban and rural
households increases. Meanwhile, the added value
of culture industry will increase if the Engel
coefficients of urban and rural households decrease.
In the output result of [Prob.], the p-value of X
1
is 0.1409, indicating that the influence of X
1
to Y is
not significant. The reason is that there is little direct
relation between the growth of GDP and that of
culture industry. The contribution of culture industry
to GDP is not very evident.
(2) After analyzing all the indicators by linear
regression, we knew from the output results of
[Prob.] that the influence of X
3
to Y is not
significant and the significance of X
1
and X
4
is little.
So we eliminated these three factors and made
regression analysis of X
2
and X
5
. From the output
results, the significance of X
2
and X
5
reaches to the
largest level. Therefore, among the five variables
average disposable income of urban residents and
Engel coefficient of rural households are the
determinant factors. The reason is that urban
residents spend the added income more on culture
consumption after the subsistence problem has been
resolved. But the life quality of rural residents is not
as high as that of urban residents. So the rural people
spend the added income more on material
consumption.
(3) After confirming that X
2
and X
5
are the
determinant factors of this linear model, we made D-
W test for X
2
and X
5
. We found that there is no auto
correlativity. It means that although average
disposable income of urban residents and Engel
coefficient of rural households are important factors
influencing the added value of culture industry there
is no certain relation between them.
4 CONCLUSIONS
Through the empirical analysis of the consumption
demand factors that influence the development of
culture industry, we drew the conclusion that
average disposable income of urban residents and
Engel coefficient of rural households are
determinant factors influencing the economic
distribution of Chinese culture industry. The average
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOCIAL CONSUMPTION DEMAND FACTORS
AND THE CULTURAL INDUSTRY IN CHINA
609
income level of residents and household Engel
coefficient are two factors that reflect domestic
culture consumption demand comprehensively. So
we testified that the culture consumption demand of
a country is the basis of the development of its
culture industry and the motive power of enhancing
competitive advantage of culture industry. So
grasping the culture consumption demand is
capturing the master key of developing culture
industry. In order to facilitate the development of
Chinese culture industry, it is necessary to expand
the culture consumption demand from two aspects,
one of which is to enhance the average disposable
income of urban residents with still more forces so
that the consumption ability can be increased, the
other of which is to lower the Engel coefficient of
rural household and improve their life quality.
The following countermeasures were put forward
according to this empirical analysis.
Enhancing the resident income level. The
consumption ability of residents is decided by their
income level. So enhancing the income of residents
especially the rural residents and the urban low-
income residents is the prerequisite to strengthen the
resident consumption ability and provide a solid
economic foundation for the development of culture
industry. For this purpose, it is necessary to increase
the proportion of resident income in the national
income distribution, enhance the subsistence
allowances of urban low-income residents, increase
transfer payment to the distressed areas and reduce
the residents income gap. It is need to enlarge the
scale of the medium-income group and enhance the
income of rural residents through various measures.
Releasing the rural consumption demand. From
the model, the added value of culture industry will
increase as the Engel coefficient decreases.
Therefore, it is necessary to improve the lift quality
of the rural residents. Although the activities of
sending culture to the countryside have been carried
out in many regions, there are many problems such
as little quantity and low quality because of lack of
corresponding motivation system. It is a problem
that needs to be solved as soon as possible to
improve the rural culture consumption situation and
release the rural consumption demand. For this
purpose, it is necessary to building more rural
culture facilities to satisfy the hardware
requirements of culture consumption and invest on
training culture talents and supporting culture
projects to provide solid and sustainable guarantee
for booming rural culture.
Promoting public culture service systems. For
the people in backward areas and lacking
consumption ability, establishing and completing
public culture service systems is necessary to satisfy
the requirements of culture consumption demand.
Opening public culture products and service market
can turn the potential culture demand into actual
culture demand so as to develop culture
productivity. The key point is to reform the
management system of public culture. The
government should exit from the position of
monopoly provider and produce various structure
condition, policy condition and social condition.
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