BUILDING PROVEN CAUSAL MODEL BASES FOR STRATEGIC DECISION SUPPORT

Christian Hillbrand

2004

Abstract

Since many Decision Support Systems (DSS) in the area of causal strategy planning methods incorporate techniques to draw conclusions from an underlying model but fail to prove the implicitly assumed hypotheses within the latter, this paper focuses on the improvement of the model base quality. Therefore, this approach employs Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to infer the underlying causal functions from empirical time series. As a prerequisite for this, an automated proof of causality for nomothetic cause-and-effect hypotheses has to be developed.

References

  1. Allen, R. (1964). Mathematical Analysis for Economists. St. Martin's Press, New York (NY).
  2. Bartlett, P. S. (1955). Stochastic Processes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  3. Hillbrand, C. (2003a). Inferenzbasierte Konstruktion betriebswirtschaftlicher Kausalmodelle zur Unterstützung der strategischen Unternehmensplanung. Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of Vienna, Vienna. (in German).
  4. Hillbrand, C. (2003b). Towards the accuracy of cybernetic strategy planning models: Causal proof and function approximation. Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, 1(2).
  5. Hillbrand, C. and Karagiannis, D. (2002). Using arti - cial neural networks to prove hypothetic cause-andeffect relations: A metamodel-based approach to support strategic decisions. In Piattini, M., Filipe, J., and Braz, J., editors, Proceedings of ICEIS 2002 - The Fourth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems, volume 1, pages 367 - 373, Ciudad Real, Spain.
  6. Kaplan, R. and Norton, D. (2004). Strategy Maps: Converting Intangible Assets into Tangible Outcomes. Harvard Business School Press, Boston (MA).
  7. Kolmogorov, A. N. (1957). On the representation of continuous functions of many variables by superposition of continuous functions of one variable and addition. Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR, 114:953 - 956.
  8. Levich, R. M. and Rizzo, R. M. (1997). Alternative tests for time series dependence based on autocorrelation coef cients. In Stern School of Business, editor, Symposium on Global Integration and Competition, New York (NY).
  9. Mendoza, C., Delemond, M.-H., Giraud, F., and Loening, H. (2002). Tableaux de bord et Balanced Scorecards. Guide de gestion RF. Publications duciaires. (in French).
  10. Pearl, J. and Verma, T. (1991). A theory of inferred causation. In Allen, J. A., Fikes, R., and Sandewall, E., editors, Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning, pages 441 - 452, San Mateo (CA).
  11. Schnell, R., Hill, P. B., and Esser, E. (1999). Methoden der empirischen Sozialforschung. Oldenbourg-Verlag, Munich et al., 6th edition. (in German).
  12. Schwaninger, M. (2001). System theory and cybernetics. Kybernetes, 30(9/10):1209-1222.
  13. Tikk, D., Kóczy, L. T., and Gedeon, T. D. (2001). Universal approximation and its limits in soft computing techniques. an overview. Research Working Paper RWPIT-02-2001, Murdoch University, Perth W.A.
  14. Vester, F. (1988). The biocybernetic approach as a basis for planning our environment. Systems Practice, 4:399 - 413.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Hillbrand C. (2004). BUILDING PROVEN CAUSAL MODEL BASES FOR STRATEGIC DECISION SUPPORT . In Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS, ISBN 972-8865-00-7, pages 178-183. DOI: 10.5220/0002625101780183


in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceis04,
author={Christian Hillbrand},
title={BUILDING PROVEN CAUSAL MODEL BASES FOR STRATEGIC DECISION SUPPORT},
booktitle={Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,},
year={2004},
pages={178-183},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0002625101780183},
isbn={972-8865-00-7},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,
TI - BUILDING PROVEN CAUSAL MODEL BASES FOR STRATEGIC DECISION SUPPORT
SN - 972-8865-00-7
AU - Hillbrand C.
PY - 2004
SP - 178
EP - 183
DO - 10.5220/0002625101780183