Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account

Christina Pakusch, Paul Bossauer, Markus Shakoor, Gunnar Stevens


The megatrends towards both a digital and a usership economy have changed entire markets in the past and will continue to do so over the next decades. In this work, we outline what this change means for possible futures of the mobility sector, taking the combination of trends in both economies into account. Using a sys-tematic, scenario-based trend analysis, we draft four general future scenarios and adapt the two most relevant scenarios to the automotive sector. Our findings show that combing the trends from both economies provides new insights that have often been neglected in literature because of an isolated view on digital technology only. However, service concepts such as self-driving car sharing or self-driving taxis have a great impact at various levels including microeconomic (e.g., service and product design, business models) and macroeconomic (e.g., with regard to ecological, economical, and social impacts). We give a brief outline of these issues and show which business models could be successful in the most likely future scenarios, before we frame strategic implications for today’s automobile manufacturers.


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Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Pakusch C., Bossauer P., Shakoor M. and Stevens G. (2016). Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account . In Proceedings of the 13th International Joint Conference on e-Business and Telecommunications - Volume 2: ICE-B, (ICETE 2016) ISBN 978-989-758-196-0, pages 19-30. DOI: 10.5220/0005960900190030

in Bibtex Style

author={Christina Pakusch and Paul Bossauer and Markus Shakoor and Gunnar Stevens},
title={Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 13th International Joint Conference on e-Business and Telecommunications - Volume 2: ICE-B, (ICETE 2016)},

in EndNote Style

JO - Proceedings of the 13th International Joint Conference on e-Business and Telecommunications - Volume 2: ICE-B, (ICETE 2016)
TI - Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account
SN - 978-989-758-196-0
AU - Pakusch C.
AU - Bossauer P.
AU - Shakoor M.
AU - Stevens G.
PY - 2016
SP - 19
EP - 30
DO - 10.5220/0005960900190030