Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account

Christina Pakusch, Paul Bossauer, Markus Shakoor, Gunnar Stevens

Abstract

The megatrends towards both a digital and a usership economy have changed entire markets in the past and will continue to do so over the next decades. In this work, we outline what this change means for possible futures of the mobility sector, taking the combination of trends in both economies into account. Using a sys-tematic, scenario-based trend analysis, we draft four general future scenarios and adapt the two most relevant scenarios to the automotive sector. Our findings show that combing the trends from both economies provides new insights that have often been neglected in literature because of an isolated view on digital technology only. However, service concepts such as self-driving car sharing or self-driving taxis have a great impact at various levels including microeconomic (e.g., service and product design, business models) and macroeconomic (e.g., with regard to ecological, economical, and social impacts). We give a brief outline of these issues and show which business models could be successful in the most likely future scenarios, before we frame strategic implications for today’s automobile manufacturers.

References

  1. Anderson, J.M., Nidhi, K., Stanley, K.D., Sorensen, P., et al., 2014. Autonomous vehicle technology: A guide for policymakers. Rand Corporation.
  2. Atzori, L., Iera, A., Morabito, G., 2010. The internet of things. Computer networks. 54, 15, 2787-805.
  3. Bartl, M., 2015. The Future of Autonomous Driving, THE MAKING OF INNOVATION (E Journal). 1-7.
  4. Baydere, B.A., Erondu, K., Espinel, D., Jain, S., et al., 2014. Car-Sharing Service using Autonomous Automobiles.
  5. Beggiato, M., Krems, J.F., 2013. The evolution of mental model, trust and acceptance of adaptive cruise control in relation to initial information, Transportation research part F. 18,47-57.
  6. Belk, R., 1988. Possessions and self. Wiley Online Library.
  7. Belk, R., 2007. Why not share rather than own?, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 611, 1, 126-40.
  8. Belk, R., 2014. You are what you can access. Journal of Business Research. 67, 8, 1595-600.
  9. Bergenhem, C., Shladover, S., Coelingh, E., Englund, C., et al., 2012. Overview of platooning systems. In Proc. of the 19th ITS World Congress, Oct 22-26, Vienna, Austria (2012). 2012.
  10. Berger, R., 2013. Trend Compendium 2030.
  11. Botsman, R., Rogers, R., 2011. What's mine is yours. Collins London.
  12. Bourdieu, P., 1984. Distinction: A social critique of the judgement of taste. Harvard University Press.
  13. Burns, L.D., Jordan, W.C., Scarborough, B.A., 2013. Transforming personal mobility, The Earth Institute.
  14. Buxmann, P., Hess, T., 2015. Die Softwareindustrie: Ökonomische Prinzipien, Strategien, Perspektiven. Springer-Verlag.
  15. Cusumano, M.A., 2014. How traditional firms must compete in the sharing economy, Communications of the ACM. 58, 1, 32-4.
  16. Davis, F.D., 1989. Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology, MIS quarterly. 319-40.
  17. EC, (European Commission), 2011. WHITE PAPER roadmap to a single European transport area towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, COM (2011). 144.
  18. Epprecht, N., von Wirth, T., Stünzi, C. and Blumer, Y.B., 2014. Anticipating transitions beyond the current mobility regimes. Futures. 60,30-40.
  19. EY, (Ernst & Young), 2013. Autonomes Fahren - die Zukunft des Pkw-Marktes?
  20. Friedrich, R., Peterson, M., Koster, A., 2011. The rise of Generation C, strategy+ business. 62,1-3.
  21. Gao, P., Hensley, R., Zielke, A., 2014. A road map to the future for the auto industry, McKinsey Quarterly, Oct.
  22. Geradin, D., 2015. Should Uber be allowed to compete in Europe? And if so how?, And If so How.
  23. Gucwa, M., 2014. Mobility and energy impacts of automated cars. In Proc. of the Automated Vehicles Symposium, San Francisco. 2014.
  24. Gunn, H., 2001. Spatial and temporal transferability of relationships between travel demand, trip cost and travel time, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. 37, 2, 163-89.
  25. Hamari, J., Sjöklint, M., Ukkonen, A., 2015. The sharing economy: Why people participate in collaborative consumption, Available at SSRN 2271971.
  26. Hars, A., 2015. Flotten selbstfahrender Elektrotaxis - Eine Szenarioanalyse. In Proff, H. (ed.) Entscheidungen beim Übergang in die Elektromobilität. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. pp. 615-32.
  27. Hassenzahl, M., 2001. The effect of perceived hedonic quality on product appealingness, International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction. 13, 4, 481-99.
  28. Heinrichs, H., Grunenberg, H., 2012. Sharing Economy?: Auf dem Weg in eine neue Konsumkultur?. Lüneburg.
  29. Howard, D., Dai, D., 2014. Public Perceptions of Selfdriving Cars. California 2. In Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting. 2014.
  30. Huang, C.-Y., 2005. File sharing as a form of music consumption, International Journal of Electronic Commerce. 9, 4, 37-55.
  31. Karimi, J., Walter, Z., 2015. Corporate Entrepreneurship, Disruptive Business Model Innovation Adoption, and Its Performance. Long Range Planning.
  32. Laudon, K.C., Laudon, J.P., 2012. Management information systems: managing the digital firm.
  33. Lenz, B., Nobis, C., Köhler, K., Mehlin, M., et al., 2010. Mobilität in Deutschland 2008.
  34. Litman, T., 2014. Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions.
  35. Lucas, H.C., Goh, J.M., 2009. Disruptive technology: How Kodak missed the digital photography revolution, The Journal of Strategic Information Systems. 18, 1, 46-55.
  36. Mahmoud, M., Liu, Y., Hartmann, H., Stewart, S., et al., 2009. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making, Environmental Modelling & Software. 24, 7, 798-808.
  37. Malhotra, A., Van Alstyne, M., 2014. The dark side of the sharing economy… and how to lighten it, Communications of the ACM. 57, 11, 24-7.
  38. Maurer, M., Gerdes, J.C., Lenz, B., Winner, H., 2015. Autonomes Fahren.. Springer-Verlag.
  39. Meurer, J., Stein, M., Randall, D., Rohde, M., et al., 2014. Social dependency and mobile autonomy. In Proc. of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. 2014 ACM. pp. 1923-32.
  40. Milakis, D., Snelder, M., Van Arem, B., Van Wee, G.P., et al., 2015. Development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: scenarios for 2030 and 2050.
  41. Mont, O., Neuvonen, A., Lähteenoja, S., 2014. Sustainable lifestyles 2050. Journal of Cleaner Production. 63, 24-32.
  42. Nieuwenhuijsen, J.A.H., 2015. Diffusion of Automated Vehicles.TU Delft, Delft University of Technology.
  43. Nordhoff, S., 2014. Mobility 4.0: Are Consumers Ready to Adopt Google's Self-driving Car?
  44. Payre, W., Cestac, J., Delhomme, P., 2014. Intention to use a fully automated car. Transportation research part F: traffic psychology and behaviour. 27,252-63.
  45. Ringland, G., Schwartz, P.P., 1998. Scenario planning: Managing for the future. John Wiley & Sons.
  46. Rödel, C., Stadler, S., Meschtscherjakov, A., Tscheligi, M., 2014. Towards Autonomous Cars. Proc. of the 6th Int. Conf. on Automotive User Interfaces and Interactive Vehicular Applications. 2014 ACM. pp. 1-8.
  47. Schoettle, B., Sivak, M., 2014. A survey of public opinion about autonomous and self-driving vehicles in the US, the UK, and Australia.
  48. Scholl, G., 2006. Exploring the symbolic meaning of usership, Ökologisches Wirtschaften. 21, 2.
  49. Shove, E., 2003. Comfort, cleanliness and convenience: The social organization of normality. Berg Oxford.
  50. Soron, D., 2010. Sustainability, self identity and the sociology of consumption, Sustainable Development. 18, 3, 172-81.
  51. Spieser, K., Treleaven, K., Zhang, R., Frazzoli, E., et al., 2014. Toward a systematic approach to the design and evaluation of automated mobility-on-demand systems. In Road Vehicle Automation. Springer. pp. 229-45.
  52. Suh, I.-S., Hwang, K., Lee, M., Kim, J., 2013. In-wheel motor application in a 4WD electric vehicle with foldable body concept. In Electric Machines Drives Conference (IEMDC), 2013 IEEE International. May 2013 pp. 1235-40.
  53. Sundararajan, A., 2013. From Zipcar to the sharing economy, Harvard Business Review. 1,
  54. Svahn, F., Henfridsson, O., 2012. The dual regimes of digital innovation management. In System Science (HICSS), 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on. 2012 IEEE. pp. 3347-56.
  55. Tils, G., Rehaag, R., Glatz, A., 2015. Carsharing-ein Beitrag zu nachhaltiger Mobilität.
  56. van 't Klooster, S.A., van Asselt, M.B.A., 2006. Practising the scenario-axes technique, Futures. 38, 1, 15-30.
  57. Un-habitat, 2010. State of the world's cities 2010/2011: bridging the urban divide. Earthscan.
  58. Weiser, M., 1991. The Computer for the 21st Century.
  59. Yun, J., Yang, J., Won, D., Jeong, E., et al., 2014. The Dynamic Relationships between Technology, Business Model and Market in Autonomous Car and Intelligent Robot Industries, System Dynamics, Delft, The Netherlands.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Pakusch C., Bossauer P., Shakoor M. and Stevens G. (2016). Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account . In Proceedings of the 13th International Joint Conference on e-Business and Telecommunications - Volume 2: ICE-B, (ICETE 2016) ISBN 978-989-758-196-0, pages 19-30. DOI: 10.5220/0005960900190030


in Bibtex Style

@conference{ice-b16,
author={Christina Pakusch and Paul Bossauer and Markus Shakoor and Gunnar Stevens},
title={Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 13th International Joint Conference on e-Business and Telecommunications - Volume 2: ICE-B, (ICETE 2016)},
year={2016},
pages={19-30},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005960900190030},
isbn={978-989-758-196-0},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 13th International Joint Conference on e-Business and Telecommunications - Volume 2: ICE-B, (ICETE 2016)
TI - Using, Sharing, and Owning Smart Cars - A Future Scenario Analysis Taking General Socio-Technical Trends into Account
SN - 978-989-758-196-0
AU - Pakusch C.
AU - Bossauer P.
AU - Shakoor M.
AU - Stevens G.
PY - 2016
SP - 19
EP - 30
DO - 10.5220/0005960900190030