CLIMATE-ECONOMY MODELING CONSIDERING SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT AND ITS TERMINATION RISK

Takanobu Kosugi

Abstract

The combination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions mitigation and geoengineering options of solar radiation management (SRM) such as placing sunshades in space and stratospheric aerosol injection is discussed quantitatively using an extended version of the DICE-2007, an integrated assessment model for climate policy analysis. Though SRM measures can contribute considerably to the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, they might cause harmful side effects, such as rapid air temperature increases, if the SRM implementation were to be discontinued for any reason. The author suggests a guideline for the use of SRM: namely, that unexpected SRM termination at any time would not exceed the constraints on the rate of global warming recommended by the German Advisory Council on Global Change. The paper describes a method to incorporate this guideline in the DICE-2007 model, and shows the result of the extended model, which recommends an 80% reduction of global industrial CO2 emissions below the 2005 level by the end of the 21st century while implementing a complementary SRM option to mitigate climate change.

References

  1. Brooke, A., Kendrick, D., Meeraus, A., 1992. GAMS: A User's Guide, release 2.25, The Scientific Press, San Francisco.
  2. Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., Bauer, E., Archer, D., Jaeger, C., 2009. Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections. Climatic Change, 92(3-4), 243-259.
  3. Drud, A. S., 1994. CONOPT: A large-scale GRG code. ORSA Journal on Computing, 6(2), 207-216.
  4. German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), 2003. Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and Beyond, WBGU, Berlin.
  5. Hertzfeld, H. R., Williamson, R. A., Peter, N., 2005. Launch Vehicles: An Economic Perspective, George Washington University Space Policy Institute. Washington, DC.
  6. Kosugi, T., 2010. Role of sunshades in space as a climate control option. Acta Astronautica, 67(1-2), 241-253.
  7. Lenton, T., Vaughan, N. E., 2009. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9(15), 5539-5561.
  8. McClellan, J., Sisco, J., Suarez, B., Keogh, G., 2010. Geoengineering Cost Analysis: Final Report, UC01- 001; AR10-182, Aurora Flight Sciences Corporation. Cambridge, MA.
  9. Nordhaus, W. D., 2008. A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies, Yale University Press. New Haven, CT.
  10. Pearson, J., Oldson, J., Levin, E., 2006. Earth rings for planetary environment control. Acta Astronautica, 58(1), 44-57.
  11. The Royal Society, 2009. Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty, available via http://royalsociety.org/geoengineeringclimate/.
  12. Wigley, T. M. L., 2006. A combined mitigation/ geoengineering approach to climate stabilization. Science, 314, 452-454.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Kosugi T. (2011). CLIMATE-ECONOMY MODELING CONSIDERING SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT AND ITS TERMINATION RISK . In Proceedings of 1st International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-8425-78-2, pages 315-320. DOI: 10.5220/0003580003150320


in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech11,
author={Takanobu Kosugi},
title={CLIMATE-ECONOMY MODELING CONSIDERING SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT AND ITS TERMINATION RISK},
booktitle={Proceedings of 1st International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2011},
pages={315-320},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0003580003150320},
isbn={978-989-8425-78-2},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of 1st International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - CLIMATE-ECONOMY MODELING CONSIDERING SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT AND ITS TERMINATION RISK
SN - 978-989-8425-78-2
AU - Kosugi T.
PY - 2011
SP - 315
EP - 320
DO - 10.5220/0003580003150320