Incorporating Explanatory Effects of Neighbour Airports in Forecasting Models for Airline Passenger Volumes

Nilgun Ferhatosmanoglu, Betul Macit

Abstract

Forecasting airline passenger volumes can be helpful for flight and airport capacity planning. While there are many parameters affecting the passenger volume, to our knowledge no work has directly studied the effect of neighbour airports in modelling of passenger volumes. We develop an integrated model for forecasting the number of passengers arriving/departing an airport, considering the airport’s interactions with its neighbour airports. In particular, we analyse the time series of the flights arriving to and departing from two largest airports in Turkey, namely Ankara Esenboga and Istanbul Ataturk Airports, and explore the interactions between these airports by using them as regressors for each other. We also apply independent models based on TBATS which was previously proposed in the literature to handle multiple seasonalities. In our experiments, TBATS performs better than ARIMA for independent modelling, and TBATS with multiple seasonal periods outperforms TBATS with single seasonality in majority of the cases. In several cases, the forecasting accuracy increases when the neighbour airports’ traffic data is used in modeling the passenger volumes.

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Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Ferhatosmanoglu N. and Macit B. (2016). Incorporating Explanatory Effects of Neighbour Airports in Forecasting Models for Airline Passenger Volumes . In Proceedings of 5th the International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES, ISBN 978-989-758-171-7, pages 178-185. DOI: 10.5220/0005752801780185


in Bibtex Style

@conference{icores16,
author={Nilgun Ferhatosmanoglu and Betul Macit},
title={Incorporating Explanatory Effects of Neighbour Airports in Forecasting Models for Airline Passenger Volumes},
booktitle={Proceedings of 5th the International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,},
year={2016},
pages={178-185},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005752801780185},
isbn={978-989-758-171-7},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of 5th the International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,
TI - Incorporating Explanatory Effects of Neighbour Airports in Forecasting Models for Airline Passenger Volumes
SN - 978-989-758-171-7
AU - Ferhatosmanoglu N.
AU - Macit B.
PY - 2016
SP - 178
EP - 185
DO - 10.5220/0005752801780185