Using MACBETH with the Choquet Integral Fundamentals to Model Interdependencies between Elementary Concerns in the Context of Risk Management

Diana F. Lopes, Carlos A. Bana e Costa, Mónica D. Oliveira, Alec Morton

2014

Abstract

Effective risk management typically requires the evaluation of multiple consequences of different sources of risk, and multicriteria value models have been used for that purpose. The value of mitigating a risk impact is often considered by risk managers as dependent on the levels of other impacts, therefore there is a need for procedures to identify and model these interactions within a value measurement framework. The Choquet Integral (CI) has been used for this purpose, and several studies in the performance measurement literature have combined the 2-additive CI operator with the MACBETH approach to model interdependencies in real contexts. In this paper, we propose an alternative procedure to model interdependencies and determine the CI parameters from one single MACBETH global matrix. The procedure is illustrated with the construction of a descriptor of impacts to evaluate the risk impacts at ALSTOM Power. The paper further explains the questioning protocol to apply the proposed procedure, as well as how decision-makers can interpret the CI parameters.

References

  1. Aven, T., 2008. Risk analysis: assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities, Wiley.
  2. Bana e Costa C. A., Ensslin L. and Costa A.P., 1998. Structuring the process of choosing rice varieties at the south of Brazil. Multi-Criteria Evaluation in Land-Use Management, Beinat E., Nijkamp P.(eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Environment & Management. 9: 33-45.
  3. Bana e Costa, C. A. and Beinat, E., 2005. Modelstructuring in public decision-aiding. Working Paper LSE OR 05.79 - London School of Economics.
  4. Bana e Costa, C. A., Carnero, M. C. and Oliveira, M. D., 2012. A multi-criteria model for auditing a Predictive Maintenance Programme. European Journal of Operational Research 217: 381-393.
  5. Bana e Costa, C. A., Corrêa, E. C., de Corte, J.-M. and Vansnick, J.-C., 2002. Facilitating bid evaluation in public call for tenders: a socio-technical approach. The Internation Journal of Management Science 30: 227- 242.
  6. Bana e Costa, C. A., de Corte, J.-M. and Vansnick, J.-C., 2012. MACBETH. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 11(2): 359-387.
  7. Bana e Costa, C. A., Ensslin, L., Corrêa, E. C. and Vansnick, J.-C., 1999. Decision Support Systems in action: Integrated application in a multicriteria decision aid process. European Journal of Operational Research 113: 315-335.
  8. Bana e Costa, C. A., Lourenço, J. C., Chagas, M. P. and Bana e Costa, J. C., 2008. Development of reusable bid evaluation models for the Portuguese Electric Transmission Company. Decision Analysis 5(1): 22- 42.
  9. Barin, A., Canha, L. N., Abaide, A. R., Orling, R. B. and Martins, L. F. G., 2012. Selection of renewable energy technologies in landfills: The M-MACBETH decision support. Fuelling the Future: Advances in Science and Technologies for Energy Generation, Transmission and Storage. A. Mendez-Vilas, Universal-Publishers: 98-102.
  10. Berrah, L. and Clivillé, V., 2007. Towards an aggregation performance measurement system model in a supply chain context. Computers in Industry 58: 709-719.
  11. Bottero, M., Ferretti, V. and Mondini, G., 2013. A Choquet integral-based approach for assessing the sustainability of a new waste incinerator. International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making 3(2/3): 157.
  12. Brosig, J., 2012. Multi-criteria evaluation of classical swine fever control strategies using Choquet integral (chapter three). Alternative Classical Swine Fever control strategies - a simulation study. Agricultural and Food Sciences. Christian-Albrechts, University of Kiel. PhD thesis.
  13. Cardin, M., Corazza, M., Funari, S. and Giove, S., 2013. Building a global performance indicator to evaluate academic activity using fuzzy measures. Neural Nets and Surroundings. Apolloni B., Bassis S., Esposito A. and Morabito F. C., Springer Berlin Heidelberg. 19: 217-225.
  14. Carnero, M. C., 2006. Predictive maintenance programme audit with MACBETH. Safety and Reliability for Managing Risk. C. G. Soares and E. Zio, Taylor & Francis Ltd. 1: 109-115.
  15. Choquet, G., 1953. Theory of capacities. Annales de l'Institut Fourier 5: 131-295.
  16. Clivillé, V., Berrah, L. and Mauris, G., 2007. Quantitative expression and aggregation of performance measurements based on the MACBETH multi-criteria method. International Journal of Production Economics 105: 171-189.
  17. Clivillé, V., Mauris, G. and Berrah, L., 2006. A quantified industrial performance measurement system based on a Choquet fuzzy integral. IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
  18. Edwards, W. and Barron, F.H., 1994. SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved simple methods for multiattribute utility measurement. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 60: 306-325.
  19. Feyziog~lu, O. and Büyüközkan, G., 2010. Evaluation of Green Suppliers Considering Decision Criteria Dependencies. Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Sustainable Energy and Transportation Systems. Ehrgott M., Naujoks B, Stewart T.J. and W. J., Springer Berlin Heidelberg. 634: 145-154.
  20. Figueiredo, M. S. M. and Oliveira, M. D., 2009. Prioritizing risks based on multicriteria decision aid methodology: Development of methods applied to ALSTOM power. IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Hong Kong.
  21. Grabisch, M., 1997. k-order additive discrete fuzzy measures and their representation. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 92: 167-189.
  22. Grabisch, M., 2005. Une approach constructive de la décision multicritère. Traitment du Signal 22(4): 321- 337.
  23. Grabisch, M. and Labreuche, C., 2004. Fuzzy measures and integrals in MCDA. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys. Figueira J., Greco S. and Ehrgott M., Kluwer Academic Publishers: 563- 608.
  24. Grabisch, M. and Labreuche, C., 2010. A decade of application of the Choquet integral and Sugeno integrals in multicriteria decision-aid. Annals of Operations Reasearch 175(1): 247-290.
  25. Grabisch M., Kojadinovic I. and Meyer P., 2008. A review of methods for capacity identification in Choquet integral based multi-attribute utility theory applications of the Kappalab R package. European Journal of Operational Research 186: 766-785.
  26. Grabisch M. and Roubens M., 2000. Application of the Choquet integral in multicriteria decision making. Fuzzy Measures and Integrals - Theory and Applications. Grabisch M., Murofushi T. and Sugeno M., Physica Verlag: 348-374.
  27. Gürbüz, T., 2010. Multiple criteria human performance evaluation using Choquet integral. International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems 3(3): 290-300.
  28. Keeney, R. L., 1992. Value-Focused Thinking: a path to creative decision making. Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
  29. Labreuche, C. and Grabisch, M., 2003. The Choquet integral for the aggregation of interval scales in multicriteria decision making. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 137: 11-26.
  30. Labreuche C. and Le Huéde F., 2005. Myriad: a tool suite for MCDA. International Conference of the Euro Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology (EUSFLAT), Barcelona, Spain.
  31. Linkov, I., Satterstrom, F. K., Kiker, G., Batchelor, C., Bridges, T. and E., F., 2006. From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: Recent developments and applications. Environment International 32: 1072- 1093.
  32. Marichal, J.-L., 2000. An axiomatic approach of the discrete Choquet integral as a tool to aggregate interacting criteria. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 8(6): 800-807.
  33. Mayag, B., Grabisch, M. and Labreuche, C., 2011. A characterization of the 2-additive Choquet integral through cardinal information. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 184: 84-105.
  34. Merad, M., Dechy, N., Serir, L., Grabisch, M. and Marcel, F., 2013. Using a multi-criteria decision aid methodology to implement sustainable development principles within an organization. European Journal of Operational Research 224: 603-613.
  35. Morton, A. and Fasolo, B., 2009. Behavioural decision theory for multi-criteria decision analysis: a guided tour. Journal of the Operational Research Society 60: 268-275.
  36. Shah, L. A., Etienne, A., Siadat, A. and Vernadat, F. B., 2013. Value-risk graph: a decision-making tool for supply chain and industrial system engineering. 6th IFAC International Conference on Management and Control of Production and Logistics. September 11- 13, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.
  37. Vernadat, F., Shah, L., Etienne, A. and Siadat, A., 2013. VR-PMS: a new approach for performance measurement and management of industrial systems. International Journal of Production Research: 1-19.
  38. von Winterfeldt D. and Edwards W., 1986. Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  39. Williams, T. M., 1996. The two-dimensionality of project risk. International Journal of Project Management 14(3): 185-186.
Download


Paper Citation


in Harvard Style

Lopes D., Bana e Costa C., Oliveira M. and Morton A. (2014). Using MACBETH with the Choquet Integral Fundamentals to Model Interdependencies between Elementary Concerns in the Context of Risk Management . In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES, ISBN 978-989-758-017-8, pages 116-126. DOI: 10.5220/0004833701160126


in Bibtex Style

@conference{icores14,
author={Diana F. Lopes and Carlos A. Bana e Costa and Mónica D. Oliveira and Alec Morton},
title={Using MACBETH with the Choquet Integral Fundamentals to Model Interdependencies between Elementary Concerns in the Context of Risk Management},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,},
year={2014},
pages={116-126},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0004833701160126},
isbn={978-989-758-017-8},
}


in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES,
TI - Using MACBETH with the Choquet Integral Fundamentals to Model Interdependencies between Elementary Concerns in the Context of Risk Management
SN - 978-989-758-017-8
AU - Lopes D.
AU - Bana e Costa C.
AU - Oliveira M.
AU - Morton A.
PY - 2014
SP - 116
EP - 126
DO - 10.5220/0004833701160126